Since all the conference shuffling has been brought back to the forefront, I've been reading a lot of message boards regarding the topic and thought I'd try to put some things in perspective. Reading some other boards, there is an overwhelming common belief that Akron is "dead weight" in the MAC, and people think that 1-2 win years are the norm for the Zips' football program.

When in reality, Akron is in the midst of its worst three-year run in the program's 117 year history. Never before has Akron only won five games (playing the same percentage of games) in a three-year span as right now. What's most maddening about that, is that the last three years (the InfoCision era) was supposed to be the Zips' new golden-age. The university absolutely blew it by hanging on to Brookhart (who outside of living off Lee Owens' recruits and landing Getsy) for a year too long. Then following it up with what may be considered the biggest abomination in college football history (when considering what was at stake) in Rob Ianello.

In reality, it's that ineptitude that puts Akron behind in the "court of public opinion race" to begin with.

However, since Akron joined the MAC in 1992, its record against current league members is 70-99 (that's including the last three years). Not good, but I'm sure not the worst in the league like so many people are claiming. In fact, without looking it up, I'd bet that Can't, for one, is significantly worse.

On a head-to-head basis, the Zips record is (from worst to best):
Western Michigan - 2-11 (.181)
Miami - 4-17 (.235)
Toledo - 2-6 (.250)
Bowling Green - 5-9 (.357)
Temple - 4-6 (400) ... coincidentally, three of Akron's wins in that span were when Temple was in the Big East.
Ball State - 4-6 (.400)
Central Michigan - 6-15 (.400)
Eastern Michigan - 6-15 (.400)
Northern Illinois - 3-4 (.429)
Ohio - 9-20 (.450)
Can't - 13-7 (.650)
Buffalo - 9-4 (.692)

When looking at this, outside of WMU, Miami, Toledo and Bowling Green, Akron has played every other school to at least a .400 record. Again, not good, but not as bad as people like to make it.

To go a little further, the Zips' Rubber Bowl MAC record (1992-2008) was 67-78 (.462). That puts the program at mediocre status despite having arguably the worst facilities in D1 football.

In the InfoCision era, though, the Zips are 3-24 in league play (.181). Taking a near .500 team (in the worst facility) to a .181 team in the best facility just doesn't add up, outside of what Zips fans know ... the coaching was horrible.

Terry Bowden is no dummy. No way does he take this position if he didn't think he could turn it around, and quickly. It's funny reading posts on other sites, especially from Ohio fans who think the Bobcats are now some sort of MAC power because of the program's recent success (almost all under Frank Solich). Considering Akron had more winning seasons from 1992-2005 (the year Solich was hired) than Ohio in that same period should be a stark reminder to Bobcat fans (and every other fan base) that the right coach can make a huge difference ... especially in Akron's case, considering the stadium and its location within the biggest stockpile of talent in Ohio.

It's actually funny reading what people are posting about Akron. To me, it's obvious they are scared about what the program is about to become now that the right coaches are in place. We've been in this league for 20 years and already built the best basketball program (sorry Can't, you had your run in the early-to-mid 200s) and now have the pieces in place to building the best football program.

The truth makes fans of longtime MAC schools mad even thinking about Akron getting that missing link (football).

I can't wait until that happens.

Edit: I left out a Zips win over Temple, which makes the Zips 4-6 against the Owls.

Sad fact of the matter is we've earned this opinion from other schools. Happy fact of the matter is it's all about to change

Let me ad some perspective not fully reflected in the numbers you have gathered. Our recent poor performance in football has little to do with the overwhelming common belief around the conference that Akron is "dead weight" in the MAC. Most of those folks have thought that since the day we entered the the conference. It is only recently that we have lived down to their expectations in football. For the longest time we were in Youngstown State's current position; we were underfunded (still aren't great in that category), competing in a lower division that the MAC, and wondering why they wouldn't let us in. It must really irk some of the other MAC programs that the Zips are actually competitive in a few sports. For a lot of them we are still the undeserving new kid on the block.

I think that we have competed fairly well overall, especially in the "minor" sports. Throw in our basketball program for the past decade. We have been in the league for 20 years, as opposed to 50+ for many other members. Since we are doing stats, let's look solely at football championships:

OU: 5 in 65 years most recent was 44 years ago!
Miami: 14 in 64 years
Western: 2 in 64 years most recent was in '88
BG: 10 in 51 years
Can't: 1 in 51 years 1972...
Toledo: 10 in 51 years
Central: 7 in 40 years
Eastern: 1 in 40 years
Ball: 5 in 39 years
NI 2 in 39 years (with a few years leaving)
Akron: 1 in 20 years
Buffalo: 1 in 13 years

We have a long way too go, but hopefully the upswing will be starting.

Interesting topic, and one I too have been pondering recently. As such, several points come to mind. First, I find comments by NIU fans in this regard completely egregious given the woeful state of their athletic program and basketball in particular (ranked in 300's i believe). By the same token, Can't's football program has been equally pathetic over the same span, yet they've somehow avoided the clarion call. EMU has weathered calls for its dismissal by ignorant blowhards from programs that have yet to establish themselves as powers in any sport. In short my analysis is this, these flames are nothing more than fans trying to leverage what little success they've had in a vain attempt to justify thier own cause for "moving up". Very few are what I would consider, fans of the MAC. Recognizing the strength of our stability in a era of blind reorganization.

Say what you want, the remnants of C-USA have little to offer a new league. ECU has developed a good football program, but little else. Marshall, for all of their thunder (pun not intended) has done little in C-USA. Although thier football is improving, they too are a 1 trick pony. I feel for them though. They suffered through sanctions imposed by the NCAA from violations that aided their dominance of the MAC. Only, they were surpassed by UCF (horrible in the MAC) who used similar but more timely violations to rise to the top of Cusa football and sneak a bcs invite due to their location in FL and regional proximity to USF which lobbied for their inclusion.


If this conference reshuffleing has revealed anything, it's that any combination of market, location, alinaces, investment, and strength of program will aid your chances of "moving up". Looking at the overall picture of Akron, I like our chances in the distant future. Whether or not we, or anyone else, moves to the alliance will not enhance our chances. Thus, arguements about who has the best MAC football team in the last decade amount to who's the best cashier at Save-A-Lot. It's never the best indicator.....

You nailed it.

FIFY

http://football.stassen.com/cgi-bin/record...on&limit=50


Akron vs MAC

174 games played

Overall: 72-101-1


Home: 84 games played
45-38-1

Road: 89 games played
26-63

Neutral Site: 1 game played
1-0

Great point, and something I didn't even get into with the numbers I posted. I'd add that the Zips are more than "competitive" in a few sports. You can make a strong case that, at least on the men's side, that Akron has the league's top program (basketball, track and field, soccer) in three of the seven sports it fields against MAC competition.

Wouldn't you think that Toledo would have a better chance to make a conference move than Akron? A long history of winning, bowl games, second longest win streak in DI history, a very nice expandable stadium, MAC attendance records. Yes, the basketball hasn't been good lately, but Toledo did win a regular season championship as recent as 2007. The basketball facility had a $30 million renovation a few years ago and is very nice. Seats 7,300, but the north wall could easily be knocked out to continue the upper deck and get to 10,000+.

Two words...

Scooter McDougle

A full statment on that, if Toledo had been in a larger conference, they would have been death penaltied. They are also still heavily scrutinized by the NCAA because there is a legitimate belief that the whole thing ran deeper than just a couple of players. The guy running the whole thing said he was in the coach's pocket as well, but they could not find any paper trail to prove his statements.

It depends. Again, the Temple move shows that market size and potential are perhaps more important factors than football success.

The NCAA hasn't penalized Toledo for anything. Even so, UT fired both its football and basketball coaches.

Boston College was caught up in a big betting scandal and that didn't stop them from going to the ACC. SMU actually had the death penalty and they're going to the Big East. Marshall was cheating in the MAC, but CUSA didn't care. Now they are expanding their FB stadium to 50K in hopes of moving up. Whether it's Indiana or Tennessee or Northwestern or USC, having the NCAA penalize you doesn't seem to have hurt those schools in the long run.

If you're just basing it off of past football results, then yes, Toledo has a better chance of joining the Alliance (not even considering the Big East since it's out of the question for anybody right now). However, when comparing the two schools moving forward, Akron has just as good of a case (if not better).

Toledo vs. Akron head-to-head:
Enrollment: Akron (29,000), Toledo (23,000) ... Plus does Toledo have any branch campuses? Akron now has Wayne (Orrville/Wooster), Medina and Lakewood (Cleveland) locations.

Academics: A wash. Both are open enrollment. Both have similar endowments (Toledo slightly higher). Both are identical in research spending (though Akron has produced more results ... http://www.medcitynews.com/2009/01/technol...h-institutions/ ). Toledo has an advantage in having a med and pharmacy school, but Akron at least has NEOCOM and partnerships with the Cleveland Clinic. Akron also has programs/degrees that Toledo doesn't offer.

TV market: Akron (17), Toledo (73) ... Though even if you take Cleveland out of Akron's number, it would still rank higher than Toledo... just the Akron-Canton area alone puts UA in almost the same size market as Buffalo (which is ranked No. 51). And since, technically, Cleveland is part of Akron's market, it's not factual to separate the two.

Overall athletics: Akron (102), Toledo (185), according to Director's Cup standings .... http://thedirectorscup.com/wp-content/uplo...nfstandings.pdf

Football program: Toledo by a mile. However, both play in the two nicest facilities in the MAC. It's wait-and-see with Akron, but with Terry Bowden in the fold, Akron has as much potential as anybody in the current MAC.

Basketball program: Akron by a mile. However, Toledo plays in a better facility and seems to be on the upswing. At the same time, Akron, led by Jim Tressel, is fundraising to build a new arena.

Recruiting potential: Akron by a mile. There is no comparison to the amount of football recruits produced in the Cleveland-Akron-Canton area to the Toledo area. ... probably a generous 4-1 ratio advantage on Akron's part. On the basketball side, it's closer, though Cleveland-Akron-Canton is still likely ahead by a 2-to-1 ratio (if not more).

With that said, if the Alliance expands up to 24, both Toledo and Akron would probably get an invite. Having two Ohio schools, located in two separate markets, makes sense for both the Alliance and UA and UT. It puts the league in the heavily populated Northern Ohio markets, plus gives UA and UT travel partners. And the schools could build a nice rivalry. I know some may not receive that well on here (due to the Can't rivalry) and some on Toledo boards will say the same thing (due to BG). But lets face it, both the Cleveland-Akron and Toledo TV markets (especially with UT's football success) will be coveted. Both markets have two schools located within each. Neither market is big enough to take on two. I think it will be up to the universities of Akron and Toledo to decide if making more money (and enhancing their brands) is worth giving up their traditional rivalries.

For me, it's a no-brainer, and from what I know about the University of Akron leadership, it's a no-brainer to them. You make the move and don't look back. Even if the Alliance loses members, worst case is you begin to start plucking more MAC schools, then you're back to square-one, but now with a head start money-wise.

Just from gauging information on what it appears conferences are targeting, the most attractive MAC schools are, IMO:
1. Akron - Can't could be here if not for the sub-par football facilities with no immediate plans to replace Dix. (A "Cleveland" school would be highly coveted since it's the largest market in the country without a BCS team).

2. Toledo - BG could be here ... actually it would be way behind Buffalo ... but regardless, it has neither the football or basketball facility to compete with UT. Plus, UT is the Toledo school while BG just happens to be in the Toledo market.

3. Buffalo - Good market, decent athletics. Buffalo's best selling point, though, is on the academic side, especially its huge endowment. However, I'm not sure if Buffalo's academics outweighs Toledo's football program. Though you can make a case for Buffalo at No. 2 (larger market than Toledo, better academics). It's close.

4. Northern Illinois - Of course NIU fans will say they should rank No. 1 due to the Chicago market. But while, technically being in the Chicago market, NIU is 65 miles west of Chicago (you know, the Iowa way) and surrounded by cornfields. In fact, it's just as close to Rockford (35 or so miles) as it is Aurora (the far west fringe of the Chicagoland area). One of the things people use against Akron is that it can't capture the Cleveland market being that it is located 35 miles from Cleveland. Let's use the same logic with NIU. How can NIU capture Chicago when it's such a remote place within the (albeit larger Chicago market)? For example, the geographic mid-point of the Cleveland-Akron market (population wise) would lie somewhere around Twinsburg (19 miles from Akron ... and Twinsburg, like Akron, are both in Summit County.) In the Chicago TV market, the geographic mid-point would be somewhere near downtown Chicago (since, unlike Cleveland-Akron-Canton, the Chicago market is highly concentrated around Chicago itself). NIU is 65 miles from that mid-point. That's not even considering Chicago already has Northwestern 13 miles to the north, Notre Dame 96 miles to the east (not much further than NIU. plus Chicago's population is more eastern/southern based rather than western based to begin with), and Chicago also happens to be the hub for Big Ten alumni.

Also, like I've already stated, you can take "Cleveland" out of Akron's equation and it's still a borderline top 50 market. If you take "Chicago" out of NIU, Dekalb might as well be Sheboygan, Wisc.

5. Ball State - While technically in the No. 25 Indianapolis market, Muncie, like NIU to Chicago, is a fringe location, being about 60 miles from Indy. And Indiana is a state that doesn't care that much (outside of ND) about college football.

6. Western Michigan - Being in the No. 39 Kalamazoo-Grand Rapids-Battle Creek market sounds nice. But considering the largest of those places is Grand Rapids, and its 50 miles away from WMU, have fun selling that.

Nobody else (if you already count Can't and BG) has a chance. Ohio, and I kind of feel bad for the Bobcats if not for the pompous fan base, has built a solid football and basketball program, and has a large fan base. However, it has no market to speak of. If anybody wants to see the current MAC stay in place, it's OU. If it had any true market presence (not "we have alumni all over the state" ... like other MAC schools don't), it would be right up there in the mix.

Miami technically has the Cincinnati TV market, but already got beat to the punch by Cincinnati. Like Cleveland-Akron, or Toledo, none of those markets are big enough to support a second team higher than MAC level. Again, feel bad for Miami due to its rich history, but it is what it is.

Eastern Michigan is in the Detroit market, but it also has Ann Arbor 11 miles to the northwest. Yeah, good luck with that.

CMU may be even more screwed. Mount Pleasant may as well be the UP. Even OU fans think Mount Pleasant is remote.

One more thing, I'll add. And though it's hardly revenue producing, imagine what the University of Akron could do in men's wrestling if it ever started a program? There is no doubt in my mind that it couldn't be a national elite program (Can't, which does have a program, is nationally ranked). UA has Wadsworth, Walsh Jesuit and Massillon Perry (three of the top 50 or so high school programs in the nation) in its back yard. That's not even counting Barberton, which has been keeping its top kids away from Wadsworth the last couple of years. Barberton, BTW, gave Perry (a national top 25 team) its closest run at sectionals in quite a while.

Overall, on the men's side, UA, if it gets its football program in place (and maybe a move up could lead to wrestling ... though title 9 implications would be in place), could easily have marquee programs in four sports ... soccer, wrestling, basketball and track ... That's not even counting football.

Wrestling? MDZip in 3...2...1...

@Keener

MDZip must be sleeping.

@wadzip

Excellent summary. It confirms why I've long wanted UA to stay with UT and UB regardless of conference affiliation.

@ wadzip,
Excellent post!

Some well-researched and highly thought out posts by wadszip in this thread. Kudos.

As for wrestling, your point about some of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the area is noted. However, Can't having a nationally-ranked program is detrimental. As an analogy, consider academics...what are UA's nationally-ranked programs?...Polymer science/engineering and I/O psychology. Does Can't have those programs?...Nope. UA is competitive nationally because there is not a struggle to be the best in this region of the state. Also, does Can't have men's soccer?...Nope. There's a reason for that too.

If UA adds a men's athletics program, it needs to be tennis. Look at what the woman have done / are doing. A men's program could be equally as successful. On-campus facilities are warranted, and a men's program would use the same facilities with no additional capital costs. Also, UA used to have a men's program, but I believe it was eliminated sometime in the late '90's. (Correct me if I'm wrong on that.) Tennis and wrestling are also the same size in terms of roster and coaches. I understand if you're partial to wrestling, but it just won't happen.

The likelihood of any programs being added before we are in a more lucrative conference and the football program being in better shape on the field (and subsequently on the balance sheet) are slim to none. Then, there's the Title IX issue.

With regard to the conference move, I think it's definitely UA and UT. I also think it's a toss up if only one is taken. UT has the better past, UA has the brighter future potential and larger media market. Either way, it would be a good move both for the adding conference and the institution that moves and a big loss for the MAC.

Wadszip, awesome post.

Another factor that I think your post suggested, but didn't mention specifically, is the willingness of the administration to spend money on athletics. In that category, Akron beats just about everyone in the MAC. Also, that may be another reason BG and K-ent will be left out of any expansion. I'm not entirely sure about BG's president, but Lester Lefton seems very reluctant when it comes to athletics. It seems like he has delusions of grandeur when it comes to academics. He spent some time as VP at Tulane and thinks he can turn a state school in Ohio into some kind of Northeastern academic elite. OTOH, Proenza seems to understand how athletics can elevate a university.

But enough Can't bashing. Great post!

Ahhsum post Wadszip.
Didn't you mean to say restart the wrestling program? Maybe after a 40 year break, we could do better this time.

Sports to start to get Akron into the top 20.
Equestrian, Jai Lai, and figure skating.

I'm here, just been busy. Akron's wrestling program was far from great when it was eliminated in 1981 but it certainly was improving, and with all of the local talent, I have no doubt it could have become competitive on a national scene as well. All sports at Universities now pretty much boil down to Title IX issues (and as much good as that has done for women's athletics, it surely has eliminated a lot of opportunities for men, which was not the intent but was the effect). The really unfortuante part is all the "Olympic sports" have been sacrificed in the name of football, because football rosters are so big they force a multitude of womens sports to compensate and then there is very little left over for the men. Too bad there isn't some sort of football exemption. I think if you look around the MAC, that is in force in the entire conference. I just saw the men won an indoor track title (over only four other schools), the women have all 12, same goes in soccer and in tennis and all mens sports except football, basketball and baseball. That's kind of a sad result.