24/7 LeBron

[skip-zip]

I just hope he moves his nutcase mother somewhere other than Green where she lived before the "Decision". She was famous for making a fool of herself at local business's. Maybe he can find her a nice condo in Hudson.

I think you just found something we can ALL agree on. Unless you live in Hudson

[Dr Z]

With LBJ returning to the Cavs, Dan Gilbert and the rest of the club’s staff has to be giddy. Beyond whatever the contract amount winds up being, the Cavs and Cleveland are about to recoup his prior loss, and then some...When LeBron left Cleveland it has been estimated that the City of Cleveland had an economic loss of $50 million a year. Forbes writes how much $$$ LBJ could mean to the city.

Saving GP1 time.

[GP1]

@DrZ, To me, it looks like the real winner in the article is the Cavs because they are going to break the bank with TV revenue and additional ticket sales. Even if the $50 million is true, it isn't that much money in the big picture. The number keeps getting used because it was thrown out there in the hysteria of LBJ leaving a few years ago and it has stuck in every lazy journalists article since.

The City of Cleveland? I'd like to know how they actually measured the impact because the article doesn't say. What we do know is local government officials almost always overestimate economic impact when they perceive something good to be happening. Wait until they see the zero impact of the RNC coming to Cleveland and find a way to say it was actually a positive. They probably use a bingo ball dispenser to select a number and then tell everyone that is the number. Either way, $50 million is a small number in comparison to the overall GDP of the region. It is a number that impresses small minds because they think in millions and not billions. Even worse, the don't look at local leaders and wonder why they can't do better than hanging their hat on a basketball player to improve the local economy for a couple of years.

Maybe t-shirt and jersey sales will be huge....congratulations China.

What certainly has increased is the sale of poster boards and Sharpies for losers who stand on the streets of Bath with their home made signs.

Congratulations Cleveland, your economic SAVIOR has come home. You guys love a good savior story.

[Dave in Green]

Clearly, LeBron's message states that he wants his impact on NEO to go beyond basketball:

... I feel my calling here goes above basketball. I have a responsibility to lead, in more ways than one, and I take that very seriously. My presence can make a difference in Miami, but I think it can mean more where I’m from. I want kids in Northeast Ohio, like the hundreds of Akron third-graders I sponsor through my foundation, to realize that there’s no better place to grow up. Maybe some of them will come home after college and start a family or open a business. That would make me smile. Our community, which has struggled so much, needs all the talent it can get. ...

What's not clear is what he can do to help the whole area pull itself up by its bootstraps. This will play out over the coming years, and I don't really see any simple formula for estimating the full impact, including such things as the economy beyond the direct effect of the Cavs. NEO doesn't need a savior so much as effective leadership. The more effective leader LeBron becomes the more NEO benefits. Just helping NEO lose the beaten down loser mentality would be a great start.

[GP1]

This will play out over the coming years, and I don't really see any simple formula for estimating the full impact, including such things as the economy beyond the direct effect of the Cavs. NEO doesn't need a savior so much as effective leadership. The more effective leader LeBron becomes the more NEO benefits.

I don't see a simple formula either. As an astute observer of the media, maybe you see the same thing I do. All of the stories about LBJ changing the Cleveland economy have take the following shape and the people of NE Ohio repeat it.

First, it gets reported that the economy of Cleveland is impacted by $50 million a year based upon sources. If one traces back those sources, it seems to be one person in Chicago trying to extrapolate whatever study he did in Chicago after the Jordan retirement into the City of Cleveland. There is no real study out there. Nobody even knows if the guy in Chicago put any thought in to it. He threw out the $50 million number and because of lazy journalism and even lazier fans, the number has stuck. Inflation and increased global popularity of LBJ should have made that number jump in four years, but it sticks because there is nothing else out there to point to.

Secondly, the story goes into interviewing local merchants who some doubt the numbers so the story doesn't stay on them too long.

Thirdly and finally is the hedge, which is the feel good part of the story noting that even if he doesn't impact the economy, there is no measurement one can put on people feel good about Cleveland. With the exception of a few cities, most American cities feel slighted. I live in Charlotte and if anyone even mentions Atlanta in a crowded room, they will get booed. One could say the same thing about Boston and New York. For whatever reason, people from Cleveland and NE Ohio are a bunch of sad sacks about Cleveland. NE Ohio is a great place to live, but they tie too much of their civic pride on professional sports teams. In addition to sports, NE Ohio has Lake Erie, The Cleveland Orchestra, great museums, vibrant cities like Akron and Cleveland, good universities offering various type of entertainment, good people, good schools...the list is long. Get over it NE Ohio, you live in a nice place and don't have to feel insecure or apologize for where you live. You also don't have to grasp on to the idea that it takes a sports figure to improve the economy where you live and then grasp at potential straws to prove your point.

If LBJ can provide some level of leadership, that's great. There aren't many sports figures who have provide a great deal of meaningful leadership for their cities after retirement. Chicago wasn't hurt after Jordan retired. Magics influence is limited to sports and movie theaters. Jack Kemp did well in NY, but he wasn't that famous of a player. Odds are, LBJ will only be able to influence sports long term. Jordan is trying the same thing in Charlotte and is a terrible manager. There is no evidence LBJ will be any better.

[skip-zip]

@DrZ, To me, it looks like the real winner in the article is the Cavs because they are going to break the bank with TV revenue and additional ticket sales. Even if the $50 million is true, it isn't that much money in the big picture. The number keeps getting used because it was thrown out there in the hysteria of LBJ leaving a few years ago and it has stuck in every lazy journalists article since.

The City of Cleveland? I'd like to know how they actually measured the impact because the article doesn't say. What we do know is local government officials almost always overestimate economic impact when they perceive something good to be happening. Wait until they see the zero impact of the RNC coming to Cleveland and find a way to say it was actually a positive. They probably use a bingo ball dispenser to select a number and then tell everyone that is the number. Either way, $50 million is a small number in comparison to the overall GDP of the region. It is a number that impresses small minds because they think in millions and not billions. Even worse, the don't look at local leaders and wonder why they can't do better than hanging their hat on a basketball player to improve the local economy for a couple of years.

Maybe t-shirt and jersey sales will be huge....congratulations China.

What certainly has increased is the sale of poster boards and Sharpies for losers who stand on the streets of Bath with their home made signs.

Congratulations Cleveland, your economic SAVIOR has come home. You guys love a good savior story.

I'll give you this much....

I heard someone the other day talk about how Restaurant revenue will be nothing more than a shift from the outlying areas to the arena area during gamedays. Not really an increased impact to the region, just a shift in location during home games. Interesting.

[Dave in Green]

GP1, good point about "the study." Real economic impact studies require a lot of time and resources to do right. Companies that specialize in this charge lots of money for such studies. Kentucky windage studies are a dime a dozen. No one really knows what the full effect will be on Cleveland and NEO.

I do think that Michael Jordan is a poor comparison with LeBron off the court. MJ was never interested in any non-basketball issues during his playing career. LBJ has evolved into a person with way more civic interests than MJ ever had. MJ would never, ever, ever have said "I feel my calling here goes above basketball." The book is far from written on what LeBron will accomplish off the basketball court, where he should be measured on his own merit and not merely assumed to be the same as other star athletes. He's still just 29 years old.

[GP1]

I'll give you this much....

I heard someone the other day talk about how Restaurant revenue will be nothing more than a shift from the outlying areas to the arena area during gamedays. Not really an increased impact to the region, just a shift in location during home games. Interesting.

It could be. There will be some increased traffic at arena restaurants and whether or not it is a transference of money from other areas could only be measured if someone actually measured it. Everyone is just throwing out the $50 million number without any evidence of measurement. There is no more evidence of this taking place than if I said LBJ coming back to Cleveland will cost the city $50 million in lost revenue.

Where else will the people of NE Ohio hear lies about an event increasing revenue for the local economy. The RNC will be in Cleveland in a couple of years. I can tell all of you from the experience in Charlotte during the DNC that transference is all that took place. Employees of uptown businesses were basically advised not to come to work during the DNC so those having lunch during the DNC were just replacing those who might have been eating out during their lunch break. You couldn't afford to go to work even if you wanted to because the parking lots were charging $50 per day to park. The DNC did nothing for Charlotte other than increasing traffic due to Secret Service hold ups and making workers unproductive for a week. However, if you read articles about the failure, the local government officials always mention how the world go to see Charlotte and have opened their eyes to it. Right now, local media outlets around Cleveland are probably downloading these articles so they can just change a few words and print it as copy or mention it on local TV or radio.

[Dr Z]

The DNC did nothing for Charlotte other than increasing traffic due to Secret Service hold ups and making workers unproductive for a week.

Nothing? What about the increased drugs and prostitution?

[GP1]

Nothing? What about the increased drugs and prostitution?

The drugs and prostitution at the DNC made even the swingers up on Lake Norman blush.

[GP1]

If you feel a stream of liquid on your leg, it's not raining (source). It's those who believe in the Lebron Economy peeing on it. While rain is forecasted in Cleveland today, it isn't raining in your office. Can this guy produce an actual study showing there is a $34 million in benefits?

FitzGerald must be the most intellectually lazy person in Cleveland. I'm sorry, that isn't true. The most intellectually lazy person in Cleveland is the person who wrote the article. Mentions attendance growth from 12,000 to sell out LBJ's first time around. The Cavs averaged 17,329 fans per game last year according to ESPN.

I'm going to make a prediction about the impact of LBJ on the economy of Cleveland that is more accurate than what you are reading in the newspapers. Here it goes.....The impact of LBJ on the Cleveland economy will range between $1 million and $1 trillion. Bet the house on it!

[GP1]

It just keeps getting more stupid.

LBJ to have major impact on Browns superstar back-up QB.

[Dr Z]

It just keeps getting more stupid. LBJ to have major impact on Browns superstar back-up QB.

From the same writer:

[GP1]

@DrZ, Just to bring this full circle, I don't think many people know that LBJ helped to keep the Browns owner out of prison, because we all know one doesn't need a multi million dollar lawyer team when you have LBJ behind you. Additionally, some of the prostitutes at the DNC in Charlotte were picked up at various Pilots throughout the Carolinas. See how it all connects?

[Spin]

It could be. There will be some increased traffic at arena restaurants and whether or not it is a transference of money from other areas could only be measured if someone actually measured it.

What can be measured is how much more people are spending on jerseys and T-shirts and all that other crap. Then figure in what the ticket agencies are going to make now, when in the past few years they couldn't get face value from Cavs duckets.

That's not a transference of money from outside the region. I didn't see a lot of people spending that cash on Cleveland Indians and Canton Charge gear. Or being raped by ticket agents to go see the games.

[K92]

Clearly, LeBron's message states that he wants his impact on NEO to go beyond basketball:

What's not clear is what he can do to help the whole area pull itself up by its bootstraps. This will play out over the coming years, and I don't really see any simple formula for estimating the full impact, including such things as the economy beyond the direct effect of the Cavs. NEO doesn't need a savior so much as effective leadership. The more effective leader LeBron becomes the more NEO benefits. Just helping NEO lose the beaten down loser mentality would be a great start.

Perhaps he could partner with Tress in this endeavor.

[LZIp]

@DrZ, To me, it looks like the real winner in the article is the Cavs because they are going to break the bank with TV revenue and additional ticket sales. Even if the $50 million is true, it isn't that much money in the big picture. The number keeps getting used because it was thrown out there in the hysteria of LBJ leaving a few years ago and it has stuck in every lazy journalists article since.

The City of Cleveland? I'd like to know how they actually measured the impact because the article doesn't say. What we do know is local government officials almost always overestimate economic impact when they perceive something good to be happening. Wait until they see the zero impact of the RNC coming to Cleveland and find a way to say it was actually a positive. They probably use a bingo ball dispenser to select a number and then tell everyone that is the number. Either way, $50 million is a small number in comparison to the overall GDP of the region. It is a number that impresses small minds because they think in millions and not billions. Even worse, the don't look at local leaders and wonder why they can't do better than hanging their hat on a basketball player to improve the local economy for a couple of years.

Maybe t-shirt and jersey sales will be huge....congratulations China.

What certainly has increased is the sale of poster boards and Sharpies for losers who stand on the streets of Bath with their home made signs.

Congratulations Cleveland, your economic SAVIOR has come home. You guys love a good savior story.

I know a guy who works for a firm responsible for putting on the political conventions. He says it'll bring an easy 400 million + to the city in a week. I'll take his word over a cynic like yours.

I'll give you this much....

I heard someone the other day talk about how Restaurant revenue will be nothing more than a shift from the outlying areas to the arena area during gamedays. Not really an increased impact to the region, just a shift in location during home games. Interesting.

So you're trying to say the same amount of people went out to bars and watched Cavs games when they had Lebron as opposed to without Lebron and one of the worst teams in the league? Makes zero sense. I heard a bar manager saying they went from having 20+ staff on game nights with Lebron to only 7 without him. Very minimal economic impact..right.

[zippy5]

I'll give you this much....

I heard someone the other day talk about how Restaurant revenue will be nothing more than a shift from the outlying areas to the arena area during gamedays. Not really an increased impact to the region, just a shift in location during home games. Interesting.

Are you implying that the citizens of NEO will re-locate their pre and post-game meals without even checking the local sales tax rates? Blasphemy!

[Dave in Green]

One of the major problems with most financial impact studies is that they don't account for offsets. For example, in trying to calculate how much money will be injected into the local economy by LeBron's return to the Cavs, they don't consider how much of that is money shifted from one area of the local economy to another. Fans who deserted the Cavs four years ago after LeBron left didn't stop spending money, they just shifted their spending to something else. So while the Cavs will take in more money in ticket sales and bars and restaurants near the Q will see increased business on game nights, that's not all new money flowing into Cleveland and NEO. Most of it is just shifted from one thing to another, with the overall effect on the local economy being much smaller.

As already pointed out, the same applies to conventions. A lot of the money spent during conventions is from outside the area, so that's a plus. But the offset is that locals won't be spending as much in bars and restaurants flooded by convention goers, and other potential visitors to the area will not be able to book hotel rooms and many will visit other areas with open hotel space and spend their money outside the area. So a really sophisticated and objective study would subtract money that won't be spent from money that will be spent to arrive at a more accurate number for the total economic impact of any event. Ultimately the most important number is how the local economy performs from year to year, not just during special events.

Most of these economic impact studies are funded by people with a vested interest in "proving" that there will be a major positive economic impact, and they get the results they pay for. Reality is that any study that doesn't include offsets is misleading at best. Does that mean that things like LeBron's return and the Republican Convention are totally worthless to the local economy? Like extremely positive estimates, extremely negative estimates are rarely accurate. The objective truth is usually somewhere in between, and objectivity requires considering the pros and cons of all available data.

[Dr Z]

The articles are piling up with their numbers and studies.

Bloomberg story on LBJ bringing $500 Million to Cleveland.

Other spending increases will come at restaurants, convention business and hotels, FitzGerald said. Anticipated benefits include a $34 million increase in annual spending by fans at games to $170 million a year plus 500 additional jobs supported by the Cavaliers, the county said. There will even be a boost to debt-service payments because revenue from an admissions tax is used to help support about $9 million a year for the $120 million in bonds that the county issued in 1992 to build what is now Quicken Loans Arena where the team plays, said Nathan Kelly, county deputy chief of staff for economic development.

Forbes in January valued the Cavaliers at $515 million, 19th in the league. James makes the Cleveland Cavaliers a billion-dollar franchise, Peter Schwartz, managing director of venture capital at Boston-based Christie & Associates LLC, has said.

Sports Illustrated story: LeBron James' return a financial boost to Cleveland, Northeast Ohio

Plain Dealer article By Andrew J. Tobias : LBJ's Return is Worth Millions

FitzGerald said his estimates are conservative. The FitzGerald administration as its baseline used an economic impact study -- the accuracy of which received mixed reviews from economists interviewed by the Northeast Ohio Media Group -- that the Cavs commissioned and released earlier this year. For what it's worth, The Plain Dealer, working with economists, in 2010 roughly estimated James played a key role in $200 million in annual downtown spending -- $48 million during the regular season, and $150 million in regional spending for a deep playoff run.

PS I notice many comments below the linked PD article are similar to what GP1 writes.

[skip-zip]

News breaking that City of Akron is planning a HUGE party for Bron's return. Good move. I wonder how the people up north are going to feel about that?

[GP1]

I know a guy who works for a firm responsible for putting on the political conventions. He says it'll bring an easy 400 million + to the city in a week. I'll take his word over a cynic like yours.

If I worked for a firm that put on political conventions, I'd probably say $500 million + because nobody would be checking my non-existent math and I'd look better than the guy who would only bring in 400 million.

[GP1]

News breaking that City of Akron is planning a HUGE party for Bron's return. Good move. I wonder how the people up north are going to feel about that?

A guy in the south is laughing his ass off about it. Such minor league thinking....

I have a better idea. When Lebron gets back, send him, his wife and kids a pizza with some DVDs and a six pack of beer for Lebron. Let them have a peaceful night at home alone and away from all of the hangers on and leaches he will be exposed to for the next few years. There is a part of me that actually feels sorry for him that he will be exposed to these fools for the next few year. Leave the guy and his family in peace for crying out loud.

[Dave in Green]

GP1, you should announce that you're going to bring your talents back to Akron and see what kind of reception you'd get.

[GP1]

GP1, you should announce that you're going to bring your talents back to Akron and see what kind of reception you'd get.

Experts say I would get 80% turnout and increase the Summit County GDP 2%.