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2014 MAC Tournament Watch


UAZip0510

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Odds favor Toledo and WMU earning 2 of the top 4 seeds and the Zips, Buffalo and OU battling for the other 2. Realistically the Zips need to win all 4 of their final conference games to have a good shot. If the Zips beat Buffalo, they will have split with both Buffalo and OU. Should there be a tie at the end of the season, it would go to other tiebreakers beyond head-to-head competition.

The simplest scenario would be if Buffalo beats OU and the Zips win out (major challenge with a depleted roster). But there are scenarios where the Zips could earn a top 4 seed regardless of whether Buffalo or OU wins on Wednesday. I think it's a little early to try to calculate all the possible permutations with 4 games still left to play. Here's how the Toledo Blade described MAC tiebreakers before last season's tournament:

1. Between TWO teams:

A. Head-to-head competition

B. Division Record (10 games)^

C. Winning percentage* vs. ranked conference teams (top to bottom, regardless of division, vs.

common opponents regardless of the number of times played)

D. Coin flip

^ - For the purpose of determining the Division champion only

* - Winning percentage is used instead of record because of situations where teams do not play each other the same number of times. Therefore, a team that is 1-0 (1.000) would win the tiebreaker over a team that is 2-1 (.667).

2. For MULTIPLE (3 or more) team ties:

E. Total won-lost record of games played among the tied teams

F. Two (2)-team tie-breaker procedure goes into effect (refer to A)

NOTE: Once a three-team tie has been reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker will go into effect

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We don't want to get into a record against the conference top to bottom tiebreaker scenario, given the top 4 right now would be WMU, Toledo, Buffalo, and Ohio. Are the Zips really 1-4 against those teams? I wouldn't have believed it back in December or even after the win in Athens.

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Dave....

You don't want that. If Buffalo wins at OU, they would lock up the #3 spot if they win here next week, and that would only leave us with a remote chance at the #4 spot.

We want an OU win, which makes all 3 teams tied, and leaves both the #3 and #4 spots a wide open race with 3 games to go, which are all home games for us.

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@skip-zip, if Buffalo wins at OU and the Zips win at Miami, the Zips would have a 1-game lead over OU for the #4 seed with 3 games left. At that point the Zips would only need to match OU win-for-win over the last 3 games to clinch the #4 seed. I don't see that as a more remote chance than relying on tiebreakers that we haven't even fully calculated yet. @GJGood points out the perils of 1 tiebreaker where the Zips look pretty weak right now. If OU beats Buffalo, they would own that tiebreaker against the Zips. Beware of wishing for tiebreakers unless you're sure they're in your favor.

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@skip-zip, if Buffalo wins at OU and the Zips win at Miami, the Zips would have a 1-game lead over OU for the #4 seed with 3 games left. At that point the Zips would only need to match OU win-for-win over the last 3 games to clinch the #4 seed. I don't see that as a more remote chance than relying on tiebreakers that we haven't even fully calculated yet. @GJGood points out the perils of 1 tiebreaker where the Zips look pretty weak right now. If OU beats Buffalo, they would own that tiebreaker against the Zips. Beware of wishing for tiebreakers unless you're sure they're in your favor.

I'm not trying to figure out the tiebreakers, I'm just making the point that both the #3 and #4 spots are clearly within reach if OU beats Buffalo, as opposed to just the #4 spot. We'd certainly much prefer being a part of 3 teams battling for 2 spots right now, instead of being one of 2 teams battling for the last and final spot. Remember, that #4 spot would have us playing the well-rested #1 team on Friday, after we just had to play a game the night before.

Again, statistically, we have a 66% chance of getting either of the final 2 byes by Wednesday night, if OU beats Buffalo. I guess I just don't want to see that #3 possibility disappear quite yet. :nono:

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We don't really know if the #3 seed is preferable to the #4 seed. It depends on who the #1 seed is. Right now it looks like it will be either Toledo or WMU. Whichever one you'd least like to play on Friday at the Q could end up as the #2 seed, which would make the #4 seed preferable to the #3. There are still too many variables at this point to wish for the #3 over the #4.

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We don't really know if the #3 seed is preferable to the #4 seed. It depends on who the #1 seed is. Right now it looks like it will be either Toledo or WMU. Whichever one you'd least like to play on Friday at the Q could end up as the #2 seed, which would make the #4 seed preferable to the #3. There are still too many variables at this point to wish for the #3 over the #4.

You're also forgetting that the #3 spot would also get the more favorable matchup in the Quarterfinal round as well.

But yes, there's not guarantee that the #1 seed will be the best team in the field, especially with the unbalanced scheduling that went into place this year.

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Were a couple of conference games added this year? From 2009-Now our conference records are as follows, *indicates NCAA bid.

*2008-2009 10-6

2009-2010 12-4

*2010-2011 9-7

2011-2012 13-3

*2012-2013 14-2

2013-2014 9-6 (three games left)

Yes, 18 games in the conference this year instead of just playing your own division twice and the other division once giving 16... this year Akron played Ball State and EMU twice. I guess you could say the Zips benefitted from the change this year since they swept both of those teams.

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The only way the Zips overtake Buffalo now is if we win all 3 remaining games and Buffalo loses all 3 of theirs. Not likely. The Zips have better odds of overtaking OU, but they don't control their own destiny there, either. In the last 3 games OU has to lose 1 more than the Zips or it goes to tiebreakers. Here's a reminder of the tiebreakers for tournament seeding:

1. Between TWO teams (Zips and OU):

A. Head-to-head competition (tied 1-1).

B. Division record (10 games for the purpose of determining the division champion only; not applicable for tournament seeding).

C. Winning percentage vs. ranked conference teams, top to bottom, regardless of division, vs. common opponents regardless of the number of times played. Winning percentage is used instead of record because of situations where teams do not play each other the same number of times (against Toledo, Zips are 0-1 or .000 and Kitties are 1-1 or .500).

End of story. Kitties own the tiebreaker. Zips must finish 1 game ahead of OU to earn a top 4 seed.

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The only way the Zips overtake Buffalo now is if we win all 3 remaining games and Buffalo loses all 3 of theirs.

Again, that's why Buffalo needed to lose to OU last week ;)

If Buffalo has lost, and we had won at Miami, the #3 and #4 spots would BOTH still be in play, and we would have controlled our own destiny against Buffalo because we still had a game against them at home to tack another loss on their record.

Does this site have a PRAYING emoticon?

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Looks like relying on the Kitties to lose was better than Buffalo. Zips now control their own destiny. Three wins earns them a top 4 seed with no tiebreakers to worry about. Of course, Jake and Reggie aren't warming up here at the JAR, so even BG will be a challenge if the Zips don't play better than they did at Miami.

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The sad thing is that if we had just taken care of business at HOME, and beaten OU last weekend, none of this other crap would have been necessary. The #4 seed would pretty much be a lock right now, and we'd likely be playing Buffalo on Tuesday for the #3 seed.

But, we now have a chance to save the season. Just win two HOME games. In years past, this task would have been automatic. Can this team suck it up and follow that tradition?

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The sad thing is that if we had just taken care of business at HOME, and beaten OU last weekend, none of this other crap would have been necessary. The #4 seed would pretty much be a lock right now, and we'd likely be playing Buffalo on Tuesday for the #3 seed.

But, we now have a chance to save the season. Just win two HOME games. In years past, this task would have been automatic. Can this team suck it up and follow that tradition?

I don't have any evidence to support this, but I don't feel like Akron has ever had three key contributors (or even two) out at the same time over an extended period of time. Harney missed four games, McAdams is at five games missed and counting, Kretzer at three games and counting. To simplify, I'm not sure we can compare this team to past year's teams given the current situation.

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