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4 minutes ago, skip-zip said:

 

You might see 4 tournament appearances as an "auto bid" in 37 years as some sort of positive.  But trust me, if you've lived through all the other 33 failures to get those auto bids in conference tournaments, going all the way back to 1980, you'd understand.  

 

I don't see it as a positive. I see it as our lone path in unless we are able to pick up top 25 wins in OOC play. Saint Mary's has been able prop up their resume in the past by getting to play Gonzaga 2x per year and Illinois State propped up their resume beating Wichita State with still 1 more game to play. The MAC doesn't have those programs so we need to get them in OOC.

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49 minutes ago, skip-zip said:

 

Yes, I know.  That's great.  If you're actually IN the tournament.  

 

But since you appear to be really high on the "more reliable" MAC Auto Bid, do you really think it matters to our coaches and players if we're a 13 or 14 (our usual spot) because odds say we have a 3% better chance of winning?  Or, do you think the matchup is more important?

 

Ok, I just got us back to what we were debating an hour ago :D

 

We can't pick our match-up. If we could then I'd agree that would be the better option. Statistically speaking the better the seed we are, the greater chance we have of winning. There is no disputing that fact.

 

Once again where did I say I was happy making the tournament 4 times in 3+ decades? I'm having a hard time finding it. What I said was winning the tournament is our only realistic path in this year. Beat some teams next year in OOC that are worth a damn and mow through conference play and we can start talking at-large next year.

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6 hours ago, kreed5120 said:

winning the tournament is our only realistic path in this year.

 

Come on Kreed.  How can you say that when we are 17-3 and have already climbed to 40 in the RPI in late January? And will likely be favored in every game the rest of the way?

 

Yes, the tournament has been biased towards us.  And Yes, we could be playing more/better OOC games, and winning them.  That's a MUST for the growth of this program.  I say it repeatedly.  But we're in a really good position right now.  Probably better than ever.  And nobody is counting any more losses quite yet.  

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9 minutes ago, skip-zip said:

 

Come on Kreed.  How can you say that when we are 17-3 and have already climbed to 40 in the RPI in late January? And will likely be favored in every game the rest of the way?

 

Yes, the tournament has been biased towards us.  And Yes, we could be playing more/better OOC games, and winning them.  That's a MUST for the growth of this program.  I say it repeatedly.  But we're in a really good position right now.  Probably better than ever.  And nobody is counting any more losses quite yet.  

 

I say it because I feel we have to pretty much be a no brain pick to get in. If we are on the bubble they will compare our best win (Georgia Southern) to a team like Marquette who beat Villanova and we won't get in. To reach that point I feel we need to run the table which leaves us no outs. The probability of going on a 23 game win streak in a conference like the MAC where there isn't easy wins is slim and that's an understatement. When's the last time a MAC team ran the regular season table without a loss?

Edited by kreed5120
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8 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

I say it because I feel we have to pretty much be a no brain pick to get in. If we are on the bubble they will compare our best win (Georgia Southern) to a team like Marquette who beat Villanova and we won't get in. To reach that point I feel we need to run the table which leaves us no outs. The probability of going on a 23 game win streak in a conference like the MAC where there isn't easy wins is slim and that's an understatement. When's the last time a MAC team ran the regular season table without a loss?

 

The probability of winning every remaining regular season game is 1.18%.

 

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Akron.html

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51 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

 

I say it because I feel we have to pretty much be a no brain pick to get in. If we are on the bubble they will compare our best win (Georgia Southern) to a team like Marquette who beat Villanova and we won't get in. To reach that point I feel we need to run the table which leaves us no outs. The probability of going on a 23 game win streak in a conference like the MAC where there isn't easy wins is slim and that's an understatement. When's the last time a MAC team ran the regular season table without a loss?

Not since 1986 anyway, which is the furthest back I could easily find records. Kent did go 16-1 in 01-02. That was the year of their big NCAA tournament run and they only lost @Buffalo in the MAC. But their other losses in the regular season that year were to Hofstra, Xavier and @Youngstown State. I'm going to take that as a good sign. :)

Edited by MDZip
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10 hours ago, zippy5 said:

I always second guess myself when I'm agreeing with Skip

 

It's all good :D.  The personal crap on here is stupid and immature.  But, disagreeing on things is fine.  In the end, we all know that we all want the same thing...success for the Zips. 

 

I'll readily admit that losing a few conference games is still the "probable" outcome.  And I've stated why.  These are college kids.  They won't always perform like you want them to perform, regardless of their talent and the strength of this team.  

 

However, we've never had a situation like this before.  We're nearly through half of the conference season without a loss.  And even more importantly, we now know that there's probably not a formidable challenger out there.  We're not talking about going on the road to play teams that are fighting against us for the top spot.  We'll be going on the road to battle teams that might be barely at the .500 mark.  And that's the best teams we will face.  

 

With all of the concerns aside about our SOS (which I agree with), this situation, this year, is a unique opportunity to do the only other thing we can do right now to raise our profile....post such a huge number of wins that people will not be able to ignore.    

 

 

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So I stumbled upon the below. I'll highlight the parts I found most relevant.

 

Highest RPI ranking left out of the tournament: 
• 21 - Missouri State (2006) 

 

Most wins to get left out: 
• 27 - Drexel, Oral Roberts (2012)

 

Fewest losses to get left out: 
• 4 - Stephen F. Austin (2013)

 

Best winning percentage left out: 
• .852 (23-4) - Stephen F. Austin (2013)

 

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25505343/bracketolgy-ncaa-tournament-rpi-numbers-to-know-through-the-years

 

Edit: Excluding the NIT, SFA actually finished the season with a 27-4 record. It appears the non-D1 games weren't counted to get to that 23-4 total. For that reason we should also subtract the Adrian to compare apples to apples.

Edited by kreed5120
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1 hour ago, skip-zip said:

However, we've never had a situation like this before.  We're nearly through half of the conference season without a loss.  

Let me present an "alternative fact" skip. We indeed did start 13-0 in 2013 in conference (as part of that 19 games winning streak) so we have been here before. I think the Zips were pretty clearly the best team but we did have a pretty strong challenger that year in Ohio. Both teams finished 14-2 but the Zips gave Ohio their only two conference losses. But that means the Zips also lost to a couple of lesser teams in Buffalo and Kent. I expect something like that to happen this year too.

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38 minutes ago, MDZip said:

Let me present an "alternative fact" skip. We indeed did start 13-0 in 2013 in conference (as part of that 19 games winning streak) so we have been here before. I think the Zips were pretty clearly the best team but we did have a pretty strong challenger that year in Ohio. Both teams finished 14-2 but the Zips gave Ohio their only two conference losses. But that means the Zips also lost to a couple of lesser teams in Buffalo and Kent. I expect something like that to happen this year too.

 

Just think, it took us until March 2nd before we lost our first conference game.  And there's another amazing similarity to 2013 with that season opening with a road loss to Coastal Carolina riding our backs the entire season.  

 

The Buffalo road jinx was definitely starting to take hold that year, and the Kent loss the night after "Package-Gate" was a crazy situation.  But, my point about this season being different is because everyone else in the conference might be a much "lesser" team.  That's at least what the first 7 games might be telling us.    The 2013 season certainly didn't have Akron against a bunch of .500 teams.  Maybe a few will improve soon and change the landscape.  

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43 minutes ago, skip-zip said:

 

Just think, it took us until March 2nd before we lost our first conference game.  And there's another amazing similarity to 2013 with that season opening with a road loss to Coastal Carolina riding our backs the entire season.  

 

The Buffalo road jinx was definitely starting to take hold that year, and the Kent loss the night after "Package-Gate" was a crazy situation.  But, my point about this season being different is because everyone else in the conference might be a much "lesser" team.  That's at least what the first 7 games might be telling us.    The 2013 season certainly didn't have Akron against a bunch of .500 teams.  Maybe a few will improve soon and change the landscape.  

Antonio Campbell getting injured certainly increased our odds of winning at home and on the road against Ohio, but at the same time it robbed us of a team that could have gone ~15-3 in MAC play to help justify the conference as being more than just a 1 team league. I don't think there is another team out there that can go 13-5 or better, especially when you consider everyone else already has 3 losses.

Edited by kreed5120
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Each year I read this discussion on whether we deserve an at large bid.  I usually avoid the discussion and probably should this year but I am going to add my 2 cents that the defense on this team is not a tournament level defense that deserves an at large bid at the current time.

 

KD constantly indicates that the defense this year is not up to his standard (or tournament standards).  When we played Creighton we played great offense but could not get defensive stops.  KD's claim to fame as a baseball player was leading the league (or team) in getting hit by  a pitch.  That takes guts.  (or mental instability but right now I will go with guts).  When was the last time this season you saw an Akron player dive for a loose ball?  Last year Kretzer probably did it once a game.  There are players on this team I could not even imagine hitting the deck for a loose ball.  Against Western Michigan, KD slowed down the offense, but that had nothing to do with our defense that allowed their guards to penetrate time after time.  We keep seeing high screens because our guards have difficulty getting around the screens allowing penetration.  We rank 291st in steals.  And remember we played a weak out of conference schedule at the beginning of the season. 

 

KD is trying to get this team to play hard nosed defense that has always been a trait of Akron teams.  We need to limit MAC team to around 60 points per game to show we are tournament worthy.  If KD can get his team to play scrappy hard nosed defense, not only will we make the tournament but it may be our first tournament win.       

 

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6 hours ago, kreed5120 said:

Antonio Campbell getting injured certainly increased our odds of winning at home and on the road against Ohio

 

No question.  That eliminated a threat that otherwise would have probably produced a couple of wild games.  

 

28 minutes ago, 1981 grad said:

When was the last time this season you saw an Akron player dive for a loose ball?  Last year Kretzer probably did it once a game.  There are players on this team I could not even imagine hitting the deck for a loose ball.  Against Western Michigan, KD slowed down the offense, but that had nothing to do with our defense that allowed their guards to penetrate time after time.  We keep seeing high screens because our guards have difficulty getting around the screens allowing penetration.  We rank 291st in steals.  And remember we played a weak out of conference schedule at the beginning of the season. 

 

I've touched on this a couple of times.  This isn't a "scrappy" team like we've had in the past.  I know I watched Antino one game recently get fired up and show some leadership after a few hustle plays, and started hugging and high-fiving his teammates.  We need a lot more of that.  

 

But you might be misunderstanding the high screens.  They are intended to free up the guy with the ball to shoot.  The only way a defender is going to get beat to the basket is if he gambles and tries to go over, instead of under the screen.  That's simply a costly mental error if you're facing a quick ball handler, and would probably prompt Keith to jump on someone.    

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Kd wants the player to over the screen.  If he goes under or behind the screen it sets up an easy 3 ball.  You rarely see an Akron player go behind a high ball screen.  After you see the screen and step up you have to be quick enough to keep your man in front of you and that is where we seem to get into trouble.  I agree with you that among our guards Antino is our scrappiest player.  When you look at steals Antino and Jomond are leading the team. 

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6 minutes ago, NWAkron said:

What's a high screen?

We called them picks but it is a player standing still and the player with the ball will dribble the defender into the pick on screen thereby creating space for the person with the ball.  The defender can step up and go in front of the screen, step back and go behind the screen, or call a switch and have the player who was guarding the screen now guard the ball handler.  A high screen is a screen far away from the basket usually near the 3 point line.   

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24 minutes ago, 1981 grad said:

We called them picks but it is a player standing still and the player with the ball will dribble the defender into the pick on screen thereby creating space for the person with the ball.  The defender can step up and go in front of the screen, step back and go behind the screen, or call a switch and have the player who was guarding the screen now guard the ball handler.  A high screen is a screen far away from the basket usually near the 3 point line.   

And a moving screen or pick is a foul?  Never understood that.  Happens so fast.

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