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Snap shot of the MAC


wadszip

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8 minutes ago, zippy5 said:

Well at least we're up over 1 ballot. I thought when we first appeared that if we won through this coming week we'd be ranked. I was probably 2 weeks short. Which sucks that you need to win 16 straight or whatever but here we are. Let's do it

Yeah I think my guess is if they win the next 4 they will sneak into the top 25.@NIU, @OU, and @EMU will be tough though.

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UNC Wilmington lost by 18 to an average team.  They likely now need to win their tournament.

 

5 minutes ago, MDZip said:

And UNCW lost a game and poof they're gone. It's so fragile. 

 

The hopes of lower seeding and at-large bids for us and other mid-majors like us hang by gossamer threads which can be snipped so easily.  It has to be a lot of pressure for the players.

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3 minutes ago, NWAkron said:

UNC Wilmington lost by 18 to an average team.  They likely now need to win their tournament.

And the only teams we have left are average teams. Depending on what happens above us probably four wins from being ranked.

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Man, it's hard to tell what it's going to take.  Since the first team out of the Top 25 has 69 votes, we have a long way to go to surpass that number.  We obviously need losses from other people, and plenty of them.  Especially from the teams that are closest to us right now.  So, I'll be rooting for losses from any teams around 20 to 29 this week.  :D

 

Those two recent losses by Creighton proved to be devastating.  They went from a solid Top 10 to barely in the poll.  That doesn't help our resume.

 

I'm just happy to see us moving.  Nice to see two more guys jump on our bandwagon.  Hopefully it spreads like the plague.   

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18 hours ago, skip-zip said:

Since the first team out of the Top 25 has 69 votes, we have a long way to go to surpass that number.  We obviously need losses from other people, and plenty of them.  Especially from the teams that are closest to us right now.  So, I'll be rooting for losses from any teams around 20 to 29 this week.  

 

Those two recent losses by Creighton proved to be devastating.  They went from a solid Top 10 to barely in the poll.  That doesn't help our resume.

Creighton with Watson and without Watson are 2 completely different teams. I'd expect an educated voter to know that and take it into account.

 

Edit: Also, #20 Duke plays #21 ND tonight so at least 1 of them has to lose.

Edited by kreed5120
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Teams that we played OOC combined to go 1-3 tonight. Kenpom had us at #83 Saturday morning, but us beating Buffalo by "not enough points" combined with our SOS taking a beating from teams we played earlier in the season losing has dropped us all the way to #99.

Edited by kreed5120
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1 hour ago, morris buttermaker said:

Being ranked really doesn't do much for me with the schedule the Zips played this yr.  I am looking forward to them winning a game in the NCAA tournament this year..... that is much more important to me

 

Well, there's a lot of things that we'd like to see happen with this program that are of greater magnitude.  Getting into the rankings would be a phenomenal event, so I'm a little surprised to see that someone wouldn't be begging for such a thing to happen to us.  

 

I get the idea that advancing to the 2nd round of the tournament is something that's never happened before.  But frankly, you have to be more concerned at this point that we have not even been able to get INTO the tournament for 4 years now.  Right?

 

I'm taking big, national publicity anytime I can get it, Appearing in the Rankings that are read and seen by nearly every college basketball fan in the nation on a weekly basis would accomplish some of that.  So would scoring major upsets.  

 

Give me anything big.  Anytime.  I'll take it.  

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Since we are going into our wish list, I have bought my seats to the Kent game, the last game of the season.  How about we take our winning streak to Kent where the only thing between us and an undefeated season is the Kent State flashes.  I don't think we have won in Kent the past few years so it would make for a great game and great atmosphere.

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2 hours ago, morris buttermaker said:

Being ranked really doesn't do much for me with the schedule the Zips played this yr.  I am looking forward to them winning a game in the NCAA tournament this year..... that is much more important to me

 

Step 1: Get ranked.

 

Step 2: Back-up the ranking with an NCAA Tourney win... Or 2... Or 3... Etc.

 

You should always strive to get ranked. But that ranking is meaningless if the end result is a laid egg in the NCAA Tourney. 

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BPI has the MAC rated 12th and RPI has us 15th (we'll probably finish ~13 in RPI at seasons end). That's pretty much on par where we've been historically. What makes this year different is the bottom of the MAC has greatly improved, meanwhile, the top (outside of Akron) has gotten worse. Campbell's injury is probably partially to blame for why there isn't another team there pushing us.

 

It's better to be a top heavy conference for tourney bid purposes, but overall performance I'll say we are about the same.

Edited by kreed5120
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I took it upon myself to find a bracketologist that would give a concise answer on where Akron stands. He said if he was to rank them among the bubble teams today, he'd have them 12-15 spots out. He estimates an Akron 11-2 finish, including loss in final, would put them right at the bubble with a 50/50 shot of getting in.

Question:
Hi Dave,
I see that you have the Zips as your 49th seed. I imagine that it is fair to assume that means you have them out if they don’t win the MAC as things currently stand. Roughly where would you place them in regards to the other at-large candidates?

Reply: First, thanks for your interest in Bracketville. The biggest hurdle facing Akron is a lack of “Quality” wins and/or opponents. The MAC isn’t helping. As of this morning, Akron is 0-2 vs. Top 100 teams and they’ve played 11 of 21 games against teams ranked 200+ in the RPI (10-1 against those teams). No shame in losing at Gonzaga or Creighton, but there isn’t much else to showcase. The BPI has them at 76, but with a better SOR (Strength of Record – 34, a relatively new metric). Akron is No. 99 at KenPom. Their overall SOS and NC-SOS numbers are over 200. In other words, the numbers don’t look favorable. But there is a caveat (at least right now). The bubble is mired in mediocrity, with a bunch of teams posting significant sub.500 league records and other issues. And winning still matters. So in a round-about way, I would put Akron somewhere in the group of four teams maybe 12-15 spots away. It depends on how metrics might be used. Example: Wichita State is similar in some respects, but the MVC is a little stronger at the top. WSU has a notably higher BPI (24) and KenPom (21) marks, although worse in the RPI. If Akron avoids another “really bad” loss and wins the MAC with say a one-loss run, they’ll be in the conversation should they lose in the MAC final. But at best, it’s probably a 50-50 deal in that situation, depending upon teams around them. Long way to go.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

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9 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

I took it upon myself to find a bracketologist that would give a concise answer on where Akron stands. He said if he was to rank them among the bubble teams today, he'd have them 12-15 spots out. He estimates an Akron 11-2 finish, including loss in final, would put them right at the bubble with a 50/50 shot of getting in.

Question:
Hi Dave,
I see that you have the Zips as your 49th seed. I imagine that it is fair to assume that means you have them out if they don’t win the MAC as things currently stand. Roughly where would you place them in regards to the other at-large candidates?

Reply: First, thanks for your interest in Bracketville. The biggest hurdle facing Akron is a lack of “Quality” wins and/or opponents. The MAC isn’t helping. As of this morning, Akron is 0-2 vs. Top 100 teams and they’ve played 11 of 21 games against teams ranked 200+ in the RPI (10-1 against those teams). No shame in losing at Gonzaga or Creighton, but there isn’t much else to showcase. The BPI has them at 76, but with a better SOR (Strength of Record – 34, a relatively new metric). Akron is No. 99 at KenPom. Their overall SOS and NC-SOS numbers are over 200. In other words, the numbers don’t look favorable. But there is a caveat (at least right now). The bubble is mired in mediocrity, with a bunch of teams posting significant sub.500 league records and other issues. And winning still matters. So in a round-about way, I would put Akron somewhere in the group of four teams maybe 12-15 spots away. It depends on how metrics might be used. Example: Wichita State is similar in some respects, but the MVC is a little stronger at the top. WSU has a notably higher BPI (24) and KenPom (21) marks, although worse in the RPI. If Akron avoids another “really bad” loss and wins the MAC with say a one-loss run, they’ll be in the conversation should they lose in the MAC final. But at best, it’s probably a 50-50 deal in that situation, depending upon teams around them. Long way to go.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

:gun:[Argument for Weaker Schedule to Secure 21+ wins] 

 

Take a page from the Men's Soccer handbook. I think it's page #1 or #2...

 

"THE MAC BLOWS. ELIMINATE THAT HINDRANCE BY STRENGTHENING THE OOC SCHEDULE. IF THEY WILL NOT PLAY YOU AT YOUR PLACE, GO BEAT THEM AT THEIR'S."

Edited by lilroodude
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