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2017 Race To Detroit


Balsy

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10 hours ago, ZipsVoice said:

I do like his nephew....still want him to lose, though...;)

 

I hope it's the game where he, uncharacteristically struggles, throws several interceptions, a pick-six and a fumble or two.  You know the character building experience that he will learn from.  :lol:

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All kidding aside,Bowden and his crew now have a chance to make a statement IF! They have their own fate in their hands. When you are this close you HAVE to take advantage.

They have to win AT LEAST 3 of the next 4 games to have a chance. Those three wins almost certainly have to be Buffalo,OU(Hi Frank) and KS.U. I would lean toward OU beating Miami which would almost certainly eliminate Miami(w/o a lot of help).

Buffalo is eliminated so Zips HAVE to beat them to stay with OU. Buffalo will be tough. Stout defense,sneaky offense. If Woodson doesn't throw the ball with more consistency they will have trouble. He has to play his best ball the rest of the season for this team to win the division because they can't run. The Miami game on the road is a tough get. It comes down to Bowden getting rid of the Solich curse. Bad mouth OU all you want but they win consistently and are usually always competitive. I believe they still have to play Toledo,however. The KS.U game will be what it is depending on what the Zips do over the next 3 weeks. Take it and run with it!

Weather on Saturday will be ugly.

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1 hour ago, Lee Adams said:

All kidding aside,Bowden and his crew now have a chance to make a statement IF! They have their own fate in their hands. When you are this close you HAVE to take advantage.

They have to win AT LEAST 3 of the next 4 games to have a chance. Those three wins almost certainly have to be Buffalo,OU(Hi Frank) and KS.U. I would lean toward OU beating Miami which would almost certainly eliminate Miami(w/o a lot of help).

Buffalo is eliminated so Zips HAVE to beat them to stay with OU. Buffalo will be tough. Stout defense,sneaky offense. If Woodson doesn't throw the ball with more consistency they will have trouble. He has to play his best ball the rest of the season for this team to win the division because they can't run. The Miami game on the road is a tough get. It comes down to Bowden getting rid of the Solich curse. Bad mouth OU all you want but they win consistently and are usually always competitive. I believe they still have to play Toledo,however. The KS.U game will be what it is depending on what the Zips do over the next 3 weeks. Take it and run with it!

Weather on Saturday will be ugly.

Miami, Buffalo and Kent are at, or below our competitive level. Those need to be "W's." 

 

OU has the advantage of being a steady winner for an extended period. We're still figuring out how to win. But at home, a bowl-worthy Zips team should match up well with the Bobcats. 

 

No excuses...we're healthy, and in-line for a championship berth. Time to roll.

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1 hour ago, Captain Kangaroo said:

Miami, Buffalo and Kent are at, or below our competitive level. Those need to be "W's." 

 

OU has the advantage of being a steady winner for an extended period. We're still figuring out how to win. But at home, a bowl-worthy Zips team should match up well with the Bobcats. 

 

No excuses...we're healthy, and in-line for a championship berth. Time to roll.

 

Let's finish the season 4-0 and silence the critics once and for all.  Go Zips, it starts with a win on Saturday.

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On 10/24/2017 at 2:43 PM, Balsy said:

 

Let's finish the season 4-0 and silence the critics once and for all.  Go Zips, it starts with a win on Saturday.

Well,1 down and 3 to go. Not sure if I would lump Miami in with KS.U though. If Ragland is back at QB thats an even tougher one down there. Miami is solid. Buffalo with its #1 QB is and will be a tough out in the future. I still think its going to take getting the OU 'monkey' off their backs to get a trip to Detroit. But,Akron's defense doesn't match up well with OU's running game. But,just like the UB game you find a way to keep it close and win at the end. Right now it doesn't matter how.

 

Don't know how many of you were around to actually see the 2005 season. What a hoot. But, the Zips did the same thing then. They kept games close enough to give themselves a chance to win in the 4th QTR. They beat NIU at the Bowl during the regular season at the last minute. At the time NIU was the best team in the MAC. Zips got some breaks with the tiebreakers,had to beat KS.U in the Blizzard Bowl on Thanksgiving And the rest is history. 

Right now folks don't worry about how, as long as they do it.

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We watched the entire Akron/Buffalo game on at our tailgate in Ames.  To be honest, I found myself wanting to cheer for both, especially when my nephew didn't play.  Now, I'm back to cheering wholeheartedly for you guys for the rest of the season.

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I really want to know what analytics formula ESPN uses to come up with these?  No way I'd say 3-5 Miami has a 61% chance of beating Akron.  Like, they have no wins we don't have, and they have losses that we don't have at home (BGSU) that we got on the road...literally makes no sense.

 

Screen Shot 2017-10-31 at 3.41.33 PM.pngScreen Shot 2017-10-31 at 3.41.20 PM.pngScreen Shot 2017-10-31 at 3.41.43 PM.png

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18 hours ago, Balsy said:

I really want to know what analytics formula ESPN uses to come up with these?  No way I'd say 3-5 Miami has a 61% chance of beating Akron.  Like, they have no wins we don't have, and they have losses that we don't have at home (BGSU) that we got on the road...literally makes no sense.

 

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Its probably because of the pt differential. We ave 23 pts per and give 25. Miami ave 24 pts per and gives up 22. 

 

This made me look at the ave for the Mac and we ave 24 and give up 21. Miami both scores and gives up an ave. of 25 

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Its definitely what Section210Zip states along with factoring in strength of schedule and home/away and perhaps a trickle of some other stuff. Just like Kenpom in basketball, this metric doesn't care about wins and losses. They derive their odds using other factors. Not to say I agree or disagree with it, but that's how they are determined.

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42 minutes ago, Section210Zip said:

Its probably because of the pt differential. We ave 23 pts per and give 25. Miami ave 24 pts per and gives up 22. 

 

This made me look at the ave for the Mac and we ave 24 and give up 21. Miami both scores and gives up an ave. of 25 

 

Good point. The metrics have been updated after last night's game:

Screen Shot 2017-11-01 at 11.59.51 AM.pngScreen Shot 2017-11-01 at 12.03.39 PM.pngScreen Shot 2017-11-01 at 12.03.50 PM.png

 

I would personally be interested to see how the Zips match up against Miami, as an indicator for the Ohio game.  I feel like Akron's Defense would fare better against Ohio than Miami's did.  

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Watched the OU Miami game last night. OU in my humble opinion is the best team in the East. When Ragland plays for Miami they may be the second best team. Doesn't mean Akron can't beat both,but if Ragland plays he can run. Akron has trouble with running QB's,always has. Zips do not match up at all with OU's running game. Doesn't matter if OU loses to Toledo,if Akron beats Miami. Even if Akron beats Miami and OU loses to UT it still come down to the Akron-OU game.  If Akron loses to OU both have 2 losses if I am not mistaken. But,OU would have the head to head tiebreaker. No reason to speculate now. Either they beat OU and KS.U or.... But at this point Bowden needs to get that offense focused.

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That 2nd half of the OU/Toledo game scared me.   OU's offense had been scoring a lot of points, and I was pleased to see them sputtering in the first half.  The 2nd half was an entirely different story.  

 

But it's still one football game in Akron, with the title on the line.  What more can we ask for ?

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On 10/24/2017 at 1:16 PM, Captain Kangaroo said:

Miami, Buffalo and Kent are at, or below our competitive level. Those need to be "W's." 

 

OU has the advantage of being a steady winner for an extended period. We're still figuring out how to win. But at home, a bowl-worthy Zips team should match up well with the Bobcats. 

 

No excuses...we're healthy, and in-line for a championship berth. Time to roll.

 

My how the perspective on this has now changed. At the time, I agreed with you, CK. However, I think Miami's talent is clearly better than ours. We are also no longer healthy.

 

OU doesn't beat themselves, and I don't see us playing out-of-our-minds well against them either. I expect that we will get beaten soundly and have our rivalry game to determine whether we are bowl eligible.

 

If we lose both, Bowden's job is on the line. I think getting to a bowl game will be (and should be) enough for him to keep it. In any case, I think that a condition of him staying should be to find a new offensive coordinator.

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