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MAC Men’s Basketball - Catch-all Thread


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18 minutes ago, clarkwgriswold said:

That's 6 losses in a row for BG.  So much for the pre-season MAC champs.

yeah, during half time, the CBS guys talked about the MAC and how Toledo and Akron were the class of the conference.  One guy said Akron was the top team with the backcourt of Trimble and Jackson.  And after watching,  Rootstown A&T and BG fall over themselves all night I have to agree.    Not sure where Canada and Nelsonville C.C. fit into the equation.

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1 hour ago, NWAkron said:

yeah, during half time, the CBS guys talked about the MAC and how Toledo and Akron were the class of the conference.  One guy said Akron was the top team with the backcourt of Trimble and Jackson.  And after watching,  Rootstown A&T and BG fall over themselves all night I have to agree.    Not sure where Canada and Nelsonville C.C. fit into the equation.

 

The problem for Akron and Toledo, shy of losing to each other in the MAC Tournament, any loss either team suffers in the MAC Tournament will be a major upset and doom whatever minimal chances the MAC might have had at an at-large. Had Kent not lost Nuga and Hamilton? and kept climbing in the various rankings (even w/losses to UT and Akron) that would have propped up both the Zips and Rockets, as both teams swept Kent. But Portage County don't look like the same team now.

 

Injury wise, same could be said for Ohio, when they lost Preston for several games. The Bobcats national profile (not to mention rankings) dropped like a rock. Even if they win out, doubt if they can make up much ground in the rankings. Long story short (if your are a MAC fan as well as a Zips fan) injuries even to the opposition ultimately impact everybody in the league. Puts a lot of pressure o UT and Akron to win out, which really isn't fair, as Zips fans know from past experience.

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8 hours ago, RoyalBlu said:

 

The problem for Akron and Toledo, shy of losing to each other in the MAC Tournament, any loss either team suffers in the MAC Tournament will be a major upset and doom whatever minimal chances the MAC might have had at an at-large. Had Kent not lost Nuga and Hamilton? and kept climbing in the various rankings (even w/losses to UT and Akron) that would have propped up both the Zips and Rockets, as both teams swept Kent. But Portage County don't look like the same team now.

 

Injury wise, same could be said for Ohio, when they lost Preston for several games. The Bobcats national profile (not to mention rankings) dropped like a rock. Even if they win out, doubt if they can make up much ground in the rankings. Long story short (if your are a MAC fan as well as a Zips fan) injuries even to the opposition ultimately impact everybody in the league. Puts a lot of pressure o UT and Akron to win out, which really isn't fair, as Zips fans know from past experience.

Certainly a one bid league but maybe $$$ and number of fans a school can bring to a venue wont play as big a part in selection Sunday

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6 minutes ago, kreed5120 said:

The MAC this season is the worst it has been in a number of years. No team is going to come close to sniffing an at-large bid at least in the NCAAT. Akron would be a bubble team for the NIT currently.  

 

Exactly.  The MAC is currently 15th in the NET rankings (between Patriot League and CAA).  Drake, out of the 11th ranked MVC is 16-1 with a low-30s NET and is widely considered to be very bubble-ish, but nowhere near a lock.  The sad fact is that in college basketball today, fans love to see the "Cinderallas" in the tournament, but the powers that be continue to move the goalposts, making it harder for teams outside the P5 to get in without winning their conference tournaments.

 

That being said, absolutely right the MAC sucks this year.  7 teams in the bottom half of the NET rankings and only 4 in the top 100, paced by Toledo's mediocre 61 ranking.  

 

The Zips have a maximum of 8 remaining regular season games.  Winning out would put them at 17-4 headed into the MAC tournament with a likely ceiling of upper 50s, low 60s NET rankings.  Probably a 13 or 14 seed if we get the MAC bid.

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23 minutes ago, RowdyZip said:

 

Exactly.  The MAC is currently 15th in the NET rankings (between Patriot League and CAA).  Drake, out of the 11th ranked MVC is 16-1 with a low-30s NET and is widely considered to be very bubble-ish, but nowhere near a lock.  The sad fact is that in college basketball today, fans love to see the "Cinderallas" in the tournament, but the powers that be continue to move the goalposts, making it harder for teams outside the P5 to get in without winning their conference tournaments.

 

That being said, absolutely right the MAC sucks this year.  7 teams in the bottom half of the NET rankings and only 4 in the top 100, paced by Toledo's mediocre 61 ranking.  

 

The Zips have a maximum of 8 remaining regular season games.  Winning out would put them at 17-4 headed into the MAC tournament with a likely ceiling of upper 50s, low 60s NET rankings.  Probably a 13 or 14 seed if we get the MAC bid.

 

Calling a NET ranking in the 60s 'mediocre' out of over 350 means someone needs a math class. If Akron or any MAC team ranks in the 60s you are in the conversation for a bubble team 'with the right credentials.' In the 40s/50s almost definitely on the board, and in the 30s should be in. If you want to say 60s is the outside edge I would agree. But it is far from 'mediocre.'

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There are 32 auto bids meaning there are only 36 at-large bids up for grab. Roughly 22 of those auto bids are from 1 bid conferences so really between the remaining 10 auto-bids and 36 at-large bids the committee is looking to put up what they feel are the most deserving 46 teams. If Akron finishes with a NET ranking of 60 their name won't even be mentioned as a candidate on the selection show. If you play in one of those 1 bid conferences, you net a net ~40 to be in serious discussion. As of now we have 0 Q1 wins and 2 Q4 losses. We will be fortunate to get an at-large to the NIT if we fail to win the MAC tourney.

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44 minutes ago, RoyalBlu said:

 

Calling a NET ranking in the 60s 'mediocre' out of over 350 means someone needs a math class. If Akron or any MAC team ranks in the 60s you are in the conversation for a bubble team 'with the right credentials.' In the 40s/50s almost definitely on the board, and in the 30s should be in. If you want to say 60s is the outside edge I would agree. But it is far from 'mediocre.'

Silly.  You don't understand statistical analysis then.  If Q1 and Q2 teams stood equal chances of being selected, then you would be right.  As Kreed said, with the expansion of D1 conferences, there's a very limited amount of at-large bids available.  A team, regardless of conference, needs to be top 40 to be in the discussion.  As always, some P5 teams that get hot late in the season can sneak in with rankings >50. 

 

2019's NCAA Tournament was probably the MAC's best chance to gain a second bid, as UB finished the season ranked in both polls.  Had they lost in the tournament, they very likely would've received an at-large (but again, no guarantee).  Clemson and NC State were both left out of that tournament with NET rankings in the 30s.

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34 minutes ago, RowdyZip said:

Silly.  You don't understand statistical analysis then.  If Q1 and Q2 teams stood equal chances of being selected, then you would be right.  As Kreed said, with the expansion of D1 conferences, there's a very limited amount of at-large bids available.  A team, regardless of conference, needs to be top 40 to be in the discussion.  As always, some P5 teams that get hot late in the season can sneak in with rankings >50. 

 

2019's NCAA Tournament was probably the MAC's best chance to gain a second bid, as UB finished the season ranked in both polls.  Had they lost in the tournament, they very likely would've received an at-large (but again, no guarantee).  Clemson and NC State were both left out of that tournament with NET rankings in the 30s.

 

We're talking about two different things --- First, among over 350 schools, being Top 60 is far from mediocre. If that's where the Zips wind up it is a major accomplishment in my eyes. Second, - and this is the universal problem - 60 is the bottom for any inkling of at-large possibility into a 68-team tournament. It would likely require a late-season return of a quality starter from injury, along with some early non-con success before said player was injured. A longshot but it has happened. And the MAC has had several teams over the years in the 30s-40s not get an at-large. Does it suck for the NCAAs, yes. But it does not diminish the fact Akron, with a Net 60-something, would have to be considered one of the top teams in the country.

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It's fun to have these talks/arguments at this time of year.   And it's a nice distraction from work.

 

But until the MAC is in the 8-10 range for NET rankings and the conference leader is in the 20s or 30s, we can put at-large talks to bed.  Hoping this step backward for the conference was just another side effect of the COVID era.  We need the conference floor to be NET 200, not 332 (NIU). 

 

In 2019, first year of NET, the entire conference was in the top half of the NET rankings, except for Western (276).  Right now, only about half the conference is above that line.  Precipitous decline.

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35 minutes ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

It's February... Queue the At-Large discussion on a MAC school fan forum!

Considering everything,  I'm just happy they are contending and they can play in Cleveland.  Got my tix so hopefully at least make the semis.  Let's see Groce do his thing. That being said, if there was a season for the NCAA to mix things up a bit this would be the year since there will be no huge traveling fan bases, etc.

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5 hours ago, kreed5120 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if the NIT gets cancelled

I hope that doesn't happen -- and have heard no mention.  The NIT is an opportunity for mid-majors like Akron to make an impact against "name" schools, as Temple, Fla St., Arkansas and Houston have learned.  This year's event, with no attendance (or very limited) might give mid-majors the rare chance to host a high major, since gate receipts don't count.  I know some like to diss it, but I enjoy the NIT for having quality competition and fewer blowouts than the NCAA.

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2 hours ago, Let'sGoZips94 said:

It's February... Queue the At-Large discussion on a MAC school fan forum!

 

Yes, much worthwhile well reasoned intellectual debate followed by the inevitable reality on selection night that yet again only the tournament winner will get in.

 

Let's hope that in this weird year with some many of the blue bloods struggling than the MAC has a chance.  I'm not holding my breath. 

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4 hours ago, clarkwgriswold said:

 

Yes, much worthwhile well reasoned intellectual debate followed by the inevitable reality on selection night that yet again only the tournament winner will get in.

 

Let's hope that in this weird year with some many of the blue bloods struggling than the MAC has a chance.  I'm not holding my breath. 

 

The lack of an OOC schedule shoots down any At-Large debates in my opinion. 

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