November 8th - current RPI's and conference tournaments

[TennZip]

Most people on the board are very negative about the zips chances to be one of 25 at large selections for the NCAA tourney.

 

As of this morning, the zips are currently number 24 in Gaucho Dan’s RPI calculations.   I want to say that Gaucho Dan is a college soccer rock star.   He keeps that site updated constantly.   College soccer fans owe him a debt that can not be repaid.

 

23 conferences send their automatic qualifiers to the NCAA tourney.  The Ivy League, PAC 12 and the West Coast Conference do not have conference tournaments.

By my count, 12 of the 23 conferences have expected winners…that are ranked higher than the zips in RPI.

Let’s go …conference by conference to look at the expected winners.

 

PAC-12

1.    Washington is currently ranked #1 in RPI

I looked at other teams in the current top 40 RPI for each league

2.    Oregon State

27.    UCLA has a record of 9-6-1

They did just beat Oregon State yesterday 3-2

36. Stanford  has a record of 6-6-5

Stanford has a record of 2-4-3 in the PAC 12

Stanford has one league game remaining against an awful California team

If Stanford were to lose that game, they could not make the NCAA due to a losing record.

 

Washington and Oregon State each have 1 league loss and 1 league tie.

They each have 1 game left ….against each other

Winner gets NCAA automatic bid

Loser obviously claims one of the 25 at large spots

 

 

Big East

 

3.    Georgetown

Other teams in top 40

19. Providence    9-3-4

23.  Creighton  has a record of 8-7-2

Their regular season is over after losing to Villanova in tournament quarterfinals

Creighton is ranked ahead of Akron in RPI.  Will NCAA selectors choose a team with a 8-7-2 record?

26.  Villanova    11-6-1

30.   St. Johns   10-5-3

37.    Butler        7-8-3

Their season is over after losing in tournament quarterfinals.

Despite being 37 in RPI. They can not make NCAA due to losing record.

 

Atlantic Coast Conference

 

4.    Pittsburgh  (Pitt has lost this year to Akron and West Virginia)

Other teams in top 40

5.    Clemson

6.    Duke   

14.  Notre Dame 10-5-2  will play this week in semis

20.   North Carolina 11-6-1

Regular season over after losing to Clemson in conf. QF

22.  Va. Tech  10-5-3   (one of 2 teams to beat Marshall this year)

Regular season over after losing to Pitt in conf. QF

34.   Wake Forest 11-6-1

Regular season over after losing to Duke in conf. QF

38.  Louisville 10-6-1

Regular season over after losing to Notre Dame in conference QF

 

IF NCAA decides to put Wake Forest and Louisville in tournament, that would mean that there are 8 ACC teams in tourney and that they would have received 7 of the 25 at large bids.    I don’t feel that Louisville deserves a bid.  Wake Forest should be a bubble team.

 

 

American East Conference

 

7.     New Hampshire

This is a conference where Akron really needs to root for New Hampshire to win conference tourney.   Next highest rated RPI team is Vermont at 53 with an 11-4-2 record.  New Hampshire will obviously get an at large bid if they do not win conference tourney.

 

American Athletic Conference

 

Tulsa is currently #8 in RPI

 

SMU is the next highest rated RPI team at 48 with an 8-4-3 record.  Root for Tulsa to win conference tourney.

 

Colonial Athletic

 

Hofstra is currently #9 in RPI

 

Other teams in top 40

 

35. Northeastern has a record of 11-5-2

 

 

Conference USA

 

10.   Marshall  has the highest RPI in the league

 

Other teams in the top 40

 

12.   Kentucky – they have not lost this year…have 3 or 4 ties

18.  FIU   - last week, they beat Marshall 4-1

Early in the year , Bowling Green defeated FIU  2-0

31.   Charlotte  has record of 10-5-0

Marshall, Kentucky and FIU will obviously all get into the tourney even if they don’t win the league.  Charlotte is a bubble team if they don’t win the league.

 

Atlantic 10 conference

 

11.  St. Louis ….has had a phenomenal year

 

Other teams in the mix

 

32.  Rhode Island   10-4-2

42.   VCU   9-7-2

 

Mid American Conference

 

13.   West Virginia is the highest ranked MAC team

 

Other teams in the mix

 

24.   Akron

39.    Northern Illinois  - regular season conference winner

42.    Bowling Green

51.  Georgia State

 

In my view, the NCAA will definitely not take more than 3 teams from the MAC.    As an Akron fan, I want Bowling Green and Georgia State to lose in the conference semis on Wednesday.   If Bowling Green or Georgia State wins the conference tourney, Akron has no chance of getting an at large bid.  West Virginia will get an at large bid.  I would think that NIU …with a 4-0-2 record in the league and the regular season winner …will get an at large bid…despite a low RPI

 

Big Ten conference

 

 

Indiana is surprisingly the highest ranked team with a 16 RPI

 

In the Big Ten semis , 3 seed Indiana faces 7 seed Northwestern and 1 seed Penn State plays 4 seed Michigan

 

Other teams in top 40

 

21. Maryland – regular season is over after losing in conference QF to 6-8-3 Northwestern

Maryland has record of 12-3-2

25.   Penn State 11-6-1 record

Lost in regular season to Akron and West Virginia

33.   Michigan – current record of 8-6-3

 

Missouri Valley Conference

 

15.   Missouri State

 

Highest ranked other team in conference is Loyola Chicago with an RPI of 83.  Root for Missouri State to win Conference tourney

 

Western Athletic Conference

Grand Canyon currently has an RPI of 17

 

Seattle has a 12-7-0 record with a current RPI of 43

 

West Coast Conference

 

Santa Clara currently has an RPI of 57….but they will receive the automatic bid with a current 5-0-1 league record

 

There is no conference tourney.  They have 1 league match left against Loyola Marymount. In the coaches poll this past week, coaches had Santa Clara at #21

 

Other teams in the mix

 

29.  Portland  has an overall record of 9-6-1   Currently tied for 4th in league with 3-2-1 record

Loyola Marymount is currently 41 in RPI and has overall record of 12-4-1 and is 4-2-0 in league

 

    Let’s say that the conference tourneys go as expected for the conferences above….we know that there will be upsets !!!!

 

13 teams with automatic bids

Washington , Georgetown  , Pitt, New Hampshire, Tulsa,  Hofstra , Marshall, St. Louis, West Virginia,  Indiana, Missouri State, Grand Canyon and Santa Clara

 

Who will get the other 10 conference automatic bids?

 

Ivy League – no conference tourney.

Princeton has 1 league match left but they have locked up automatic bid with 6-0-0 league record

Princeton RPI is currently 69

 

Other team in the mix

Cornell is currently #28 in RPI.  They have an overall record of 11-3-1 and are currently 4-2 in the league.  2 league losses are to Princeton and #68 Yale.  (Akron beat Yale in regular season).   Yale has a 4-0-2 record in league and can’t win the league but they could help Akron by beating 6-0-0 Princeton in final league match.

 

Big South Conference – Campbell is highest ranked team at 54

Big West conference  - Cal Santa Barbara  - at 88

Horizon Leage – highest ranked teams are Oakland at 92 and Cleveland State at 111

MAAC   - Marist is highest ranked team at 66  (former zip Henrique Cruz had been a good player for them)

NEC league   _ LIU at 93

Patriot League – Loyola Maryland at 86

Southern League  - UNC Greensboro is the highest rated RPI team at #45.  In last week’s coaches poll, UNC – G was rated #25.  Former zip Marco Milanese has been a big part of their team

Summit League – Denver has an RPI of 76

Atlantic Sun - #40 Central Arkansas will face #52 Lipscomb in conf. final

 

If there are no upsets, and the 13 teams from the major conferences win as expected, what are the RPIS of the teams fighting for one of the 25 at large selections?

 

Oregon   State at  #2

 

Clemson   at #5

 

Duke   at #6

 

Kentucky at #12

 

Notre Dame at #14

 

Fla. International at #18

 

Providence at #19

 

North Carolina at #20

 

Maryland  at #21

 

Virginia Tech at #22

 

Creighton at #23  - again, their record is 8-7-2

 

Akron at #24

 

      In this scenario, there are 11 at large teams with higher RPIs than Akron.  Would the NCAA select 14 teams with lower RPI’s than Akron?

 

 

Penn State at #25  -if they beat Michigan and Indiana, they would jump over Akron in RPI.    Indiana would get an at large bid

 

Villanova  at #26

 

UCLA   at #27

 

Cornell  at #28

 

Portland  at #29

 

St. Johns at #30

 

Charlotte at #31

 

Rhode Island at #32

 

Michigan  at #33

 

Wake Forest at #34

 

Northeastern at #35

 

Stanford at #36   (has to win last game to finish above .500)

 

Butler at #37  (not eligible for NCAA)

 

Louisville at #38

 

Northern Illinois at #39

 

Loyola Marymount at #41  

 

VCU at #42

 

Seattle at #43

 

Lots of soccer to be played in last week.    Zips fans need to root for Pitt to win the ACC and for Penn State to win the Big Ten.    Zips have regular season wins over both and those 2 teams winning…would greatly help the zips RPI and tournament chances.   Also, zips fans want to root for Hofstra,  Tulsa, New Hampshire, Missouri State and Grand Canyon to win their conference tournaments.

 

[zippyfan34]

I didn't read all of the analysis but I do think with RPI and overall body of work gives the Zips a chance for an at large.  I get we didn't play great the last couple of games and struggled on the road but it only takes an invite and then a few weeks to make it down to Cary!

[bigzipguy]

TennZip,

    Thanks for the in-depth analysis. That I am sure took a great deal of time. 

[Blue & Gold]

7 hours ago, bigzipguy said:

TennZip,

    Thanks for the in-depth analysis. That I am sure took a great deal of time. 

@TennZip, I second that.  Simply fantastic post, my friend.  Thank you!

[Zip_ME87]

Thanks for all of you effort @TennZip. I will be happy to be wrong if the selection committee pays attention to the Zips' body of work this season.

[SBZipfan]

FWIW, regulars at the bigsoccer.com college forum all think Akron will get in.

[fknbuflobo]

8 minutes ago, SBZipfan said:

FWIW, regulars at the bigsoccer.com college forum all think Akron will get in.

Today, Sandon Mibut said simply and unequivocally “Akron gets in.” 

[Zip_ME87]

We'll know next Monday. Hopefully the BS.com regulars know something.

 

[Z.I.P.]

6 hours ago, fknbuflobo said:

Today, Sandon Mibut said simply and unequivocally “Akron gets in.” 

Sandon is one of the Marquis' of the Big Soccer board!  He used to live in Hartville...not sure anymore.  Glad he's confident in the local club!

[SBZipfan]

I did not know he is an Akron guy! His comments on the BS board have always been very neutral.

[fknbuflobo]

Just now, SBZipfan said:

I did not know he is an Akron guy! His comments on the BS board have always been very neutral.

Sandon Mibut is decidedly not an Akron guy.  Perhaps he once lived in Ohio; I do no know.  He is most definitely a University of Virginia guy, though he makes an effort toward remaining objective.

[TennZip]

today is a big day....for conference tournament action

Geoergetown has started the day by reclaiming 3rd in RPI with a 1-0 win over Villanova in a Big East Semi

Villanova ends the year with an 11-7-1 record...and despite the loss...they stay at 26 in RPI

    In my long  writeup above, I was wrong about Butler having ended its year

in the 2nd big east semi at 1:30.....#38 Butler (7-8-3) faces #19 Providence 9-3-4

 

if Butler were to somehow beat both Providence and Georgetown, they would reduce the number of available at large spots...as Georgetown and Providence will both still get in

 

4 pm matches

Cleveland State #114 vs. Milwaukee in Horizon league semi....we always want Akron opponents to win

16 West Virginia vs.   57 Georgia State

 

    I still think that Akron should want West Virginia to win the league.   If Georgia State or Bowling Green win the league, I think that Akron's at large status could be very risky.

 

another 4 pm match...this one regular season

#32 Stanford  6-6-5....2-4-3 in Pac-12 vs. 82 California 3-9-2  ...1-6-0

     a loss would drop Stanford below .500 and make them ineligible for NCAA

despite having a very mediocre year, I think that the power 5 loving NCAA committee will take Stanford with a 7-6-5 record

 

4:30....Colonial athletic semi

#10 Hofstra vs. #91 Drexel......let's go Hofstra

7 pm.....#37 Northern Illinois vs. #43  Bowling Green...win that one, NIU

7:30 pm....2nd  Colonial athletic semi...#58 Elon vs. #33 Northeastern

9 pm ...regular season matchup to determine NCAA top seed...washington vs. Oregon state

    #8 Tulsa vs. #45 SMU (8-4-3) in an american athletic semi...was supposed to be played last night

bad weather caused the game to be moved to 4:30 today

winner plays #56 UCF in final...UCF defeated Memphis 6-0 yesterday in semi

    Akron fans should root for Tulsa to win the conference so the AAC only gets one team in tourney

[TennZip]

this result is not good at all for the zips

we know that West Virginia will get an at large bid

   can we count on the NCAA to select 3 teams from the MAC and ...to give the MAC 2 of the 25 at large bids

Georgia State moves up to 31 in RPI

WVU drops to 19

zips drop to 25

Penn State up to 24

 

 

[TennZip]

some results that could affect RPI and zips chances

Providence moved up to 16 in RPI with 2-0 win over #40 Butler

Butler ends at 7-9-3 and is not eligible for NCAA

  Providence faces #3 Georgetown in big east final

 

Cleveland State advanced to horizon league final with 2-1 win over milwaukee

   they face Oakland in final...one bid league

 

#9 Hofstra survived ...2-1 win over #90 Drexel in semis

 

in a big result...#33 Stanford...went to Berkeley today and played Cal...1-6-0 in PAC 12

1-1 tie

Stanford finishes the regular season  6-6-6 and drops to #42

    I clearly do not think that Stanford deserves an at large bid.....

but will the NCAA committee choose 3 at large teams from the PAC 12  (either 1 Oregon State or 2 Washington) ; #27 UCLA and #42 Stanford

  or will they take 2 at large teams from the MAC (West Virginia and Akron)

UCLA 9-6-1 has one game left...at #53 San Diego State

SD State is 8-6-2 and 2-6 in the PAC 12

 

#8 Tulsa leads #47 SMU 1-0 at 79 minutes in AAC semis

winner plays #57 UCF in final

    one bid league if Tulsa can hold on to beat SMU and then beat UCF

[TennZip]

what will NCAA committee do ....on at large bids?

 

NCAA committee has proved in the past ...that they worship the ACC

Will they give the ACC 7 out of the 25 at large  bids?

 

Duke -4 or 10 - Notre Dame wins league

loser gets at large big

 

other high ranking ACC teams

Pitt    5

Clemson  6

North Carolina 20

VA tech 21

Wake Forest 34

Louisville   36

 

Will NCAA commitee give 7 at large spots to their beloved ACC or will the MAC get 2 at large bids (WVA and Akron)?

 

Akron and WVA both have regular season wins over ACC regular season winner....Pitt

 

      Tulsa now leads SMU 2-0 at 83 minutes....go, golden hurricanes !!!!

[TennZip]

another big tournament day...that could impact.....the at large selections

1 pm    #14 St. Louis (13-0-3 record) vs. #83 Fordham in the first Atlantic ten semi

     I did not realize that St. Louis had not lost any games this year

4 pm ...2nd Atlantic semi...#32 Rhode Island 10-4-2 vs. #102 Duquesne

4:30 ....first conference USA semi.....#11 Kentucky 12-1-4  vs. #18 Florida International  12-2-2

6:30 ...first WAC semi #17 Grand Canyon vs. #107 San Jose State

7 pm....2nd conference USA semi ..#12 Marshall 11-2-3  vs. #103 Florida Atlantic

also at 7 pm....Missouri Valley Semi....#15 Missouri State (15-1-0) vs. #146 Evansville 4-13-1

9:30   2nd WAC semi....#43 Seattle 12-7-0 vs. #82 Air Force

10 pm....regular season PAC 12 team...#30 UCLA  9-6-1 at #57  San Diego State

 

I am rooting for San Diego State, Missouri State, Marshall, Grand Canyon, Duquesne and St. Louis

[TennZip]

Number 83 Fordham going to penalty kicks with 13-0-3 St. Louis in Atlantic 10 semis

 

lets go Billikens 

 

akron needs Atlantic 10 to be a 1 bid league 

[SBZipfan]

St.Louis wins the shootout, 4-2.

[TennZip]

big sigh of relief

Billikens win 4-2 in 4 rounds of PK

Billikens led 11-3 in shots and 9-0 in corners

St. Louis improves to 13-0-4....and advances to final..

[TennZip]

Just now, SBZipfan said:

St.Louis wins the shootout, 4-2.

thank goodness.......!!!!!

[fknbuflobo]

😥 

[SBZipfan]

1 hour ago, fknbuflobo said:

😥

Fordham connection?

[fknbuflobo]

1 hour ago, SBZipfan said:

Fordham connection?

Not at all.  That is the supposed “whew” emoji.

[SBZipfan]

Looks "sad" to me, but then I'm definitely from the pre-emoji generation ...

[SBZipfan]

5 hours ago, TennZip said:

I am rooting for San Diego State, Missouri State, Marshall, Grand Canyon, Duquesne and St. Louis

 

#82 Duquesne pulls off the upset over #39 Rhode Island, 2-1. (RPIs are post game, per gaucho dan's continuous updating.)

 

This reduces Rhode Island's change of an at-large bid, which I presume is why you wanted them to lose ...