Good post with the exception of the highlighted item. KY can afford to buy an entire team and still have plenty left over for other stuff. There are a bunch of other factors that might make really good players turn down Big Blue's offer (e,g., the recruit's: perceived available playing time at KY, loyalty to a different coach, school or state, location of girlfriend and on and on).
One interesting (and old) example, with a local connection, of KY NIL money before there was NIL money involved a large basketball player from Mogadore. This example took place before some of you were born (early 1970s). KY got the recruit "a job" watching horses (not feeding them or grooming them - watching them) at $20 per hour (pretty good money back then). As far as I know there was no time clock to punch and no limit to the number of hours the recruit could "work." The local boy decided to attend KY and play for their team.