Basketball 08-09 Analysis

[skip-zip]

I'd love to keep these discussions going....You all know how I like to keep the assessment focused on current players, and what they will bring to the table this year. And prefer to keep the incoming recruits as the wild cards who may/may not have any impact this year.I see this boiling down to a few factors:1) Will Nate finally become a star this year? He seemed to really take a long time to hit his stride last year. And he is the most experienced guy on this team. We need as much out of him as we can get. Especially in terms of being the leader of the team. 2) Can we get more of the "streak shooting" games out of Steve M? The Miami home game last year is an indication of what he can do, but if he can do that a few more times this year, that would be a HUGE lift.3) Is Ronnie going to emerge as the point man that we so desperately need? Everything I have heard indicates that he is the man slated to fill that role this year. Lets hope he is the man.4) Will the two big men give us quality minutes in the paint?5) Last...but certainly not least....will the McKnights continue to emerge as two of the best players on the team?I certainly understand the prognosticator's predictions. We lost our 3 best guys all in one year. That kind of thing never sits well with peolple that are predicting your fate the following year. But if most of these things listed above can happen, we can have a decent year that we can all be proud of, and give us something to REALLY look forward to in the 09-10 season.

[Quickzips]

1) I doubt it, but we don't really NEED him to be a star. Nates value is as a role player, defensive stopper who can give you enough scoring at the other end as well and who doesn't make mistakes. The bigger question for me is how much we can rely on him to fill the void in terms of senior leadership.2.) I think so. The change to SG (presuming that is what will happen) should be good for McThree's. He struggled at times last year when he was asked to do more ballhandling and initiating the offense. I think he'll be much better off away from the ball.3.) This is a big question. Either Ronnie or Humpty needs to step into that role initiating the offense. Problem is we haven't seen either of them play at the DI level yet. Hard to make any judgment yet.4.) I really hope so. I don't think Bardo is much more than a 10-15 min. a game kind of guy. I'm hoping that Swiech can step up, but like Ronnie and Humpty we just don't know what he's capable of yet. I get the feeling we are going to try and run small a lot this year though, which might be a mistake. We have 2 big C's who by all accounts should at least be able to hold their own. I think that is an advantage.5.) It will depend on their defense. Both have been totally lost at times on the defensive end of the floor. Chris has developed some D over the last couple years, Brett hasn't really had the time to work on his defense. Both are capable scorers, and will almost certainly see their fair share of playing time based on that. How much they are able to contribute will be almost directly tied to how well their defensive prowess develops.

[Zip Watcher]

Good discussion & posts!My thoughts:1. In agreement with Quickzips on this one. We're not looking for Nate to transform himself into a 20 point guy. We need him to be himself: a defensive stopper, unselfish player who plays within the flow of the game. In Fairbanks last year he tried to force the issue too much .. but by conference play, he was back to being a key defender and playing within the flow. And his points went up as a result. Is he the leader of this team? I think by example yes .. but maybe not vocally .. that role may fall to the McKnights.2. McNees @ the 2 is a very good situation. He'll have better legs under him for shooting and won't be relied upon to guard the other team's quickest player. I think simply the fact that he'll be guarding the 2 and not the 1 this season will make him a better defender and better able to be left out there in crunch time. I'm told his commitment in the offseason was fantastic and we can expect big things.3. I think we'll be fine here this year. We've got 2 guys coming in with high level experience in HS. Ronnie has a year in the system and a full spring / summer of practice under his belt. Between the 2 of them .. I think KD will find a mix that works. It also helps that both Steve & Daryl spent time at PG last year too .. while it's not a preference, matchups could permit one of those guys at the PG spot periodically.4. I think this question has 2 sides to it: (A.) Can the big men step up against Pitt and VCU .. and whoever the Zips face in the postseason this year? .. and (B.) Can they contribute in conference play. These are 2 different scenarios. To win at Pitt and VCU and go deep in the postseason, the Zips will need solid contributions from Mike & Steve. Mike is a known commodity who will rebound and defend well .. his offense needs to pick up .. but that will be a gradual process. From what we're told (me and Roger Brown) Steve's offense isn't a question mark, as much as his grasp of the defense and the quickness to play in the Zips defensive schemes. A freshman will have bumps in the road. As for conference play, I think they're ready .. and I also think the Zips will be successful even if they're not. Aside from the big guy @ BG who is still very foul prone .. there's not much in conference in the way of a dominant big who's much bigger than Chris McKnight. So in conference, KD can slide CMcK down to the 5 and add a scorer to the floor. Again, I think the bigs are key to moving upstream and competing nationally (especially in 09 & beyond), but not essential to compete at a high level in conference.5. I've made this comment before: I think this is the McKnight's team .. while Nate's the senior lead by quiet example guy .. B & CMcK are the vocal and energetic leaders. Chris made HUGE strides on the court last season. His last 5-10 games against good competition showed that. Brett demonstrated an ability to score the ball and took Jimmy's minutes from him mid season. It sounds as if they had a good summer conditioning wise and the court competition was fierce. Bottom line for me is that the longer we can have them both on the floor, the better the Zips will be. Think Woody & Rome when they were both healthy. That's a difficult matchup for most teams in the league. Something to consider here is that they hopefully won't be relied upon for as much help defense this season. With the leap forward in athleticism and quickness on the perimeter, I expect the dribble drive to be prevented a bit better this year, so they'll be asked to do a little less, perhaps.I expect big things. Let's hope everyone's healthy.Go Zips!

[ZZZips]

It's a little too early for me to get into the "role playing" guesstimate game. With so many new faces, I thnk I'll wait until well after the 17th to start placing people in slots. I think the most interesting thing between now and the start of league play is how the coaches will develop the new players. The amount of teaching needed with 8 players in their first pre-season camp is something most D1 coaches never face. Before any redshirt decisions or injuries we have 9 players coming into their first year of eligibility. The raw talent is the best I have ever seen in Memorial Hall or the JAR. Youth and raw talent. An exiting but at times frustrating mixture.

[Zips Supporter]

I like all of your analyses folks. I just want to say a few things though.These sources such as Lindy's, Street and Smith, and Rivals most of the time are not accurate with preseason predictions. It annoys me because they base their decisions on who left, what stats were taken away, and contributions that have left. On top of that they need to consider more of who are the new faces coming in or which players on the team in the previous year will contribute and step up. Because losing 6 seniors means there has been talent ahead of certain players. Of course pre-season predictions are difficult to make because the freshmen have never played a division I game. I remember when Rivals were high on guys like Turner Battle coming to Buffalo, John Reimold to BG, Skip Mills to Ball State, and Chet Mason to Miami, in terms of freshmen making an impact from their first game on the floor. But I haven't seen much analysis for Akron's freshmen who have quite a good amount of HS experience, such as Hitchens, McClanahan, and Steward. Maybe Ohio fans or Miami fans feel the same way as far as players being underestimated. One example I can think of right now that I have seen personally play in high school is Miami's sophomore Nick Winbush. He went to Shaker Hts. HS, which is in the same conference as my alma mater. He is 6'7", was a double-double machine, could shoot the 15-17 ft. jumper, a 2-time all-state selection, conference player of the year, and he can almost dunk from the free throw line. But Street and Smith last year gave him 1 sentence last year.But is it just me, or does Cant State seem to get the benefit of the doubt in their pre-season ranks no matter what they do in the off-season. I mean because even when they lose 3-4 key seniors, they still get ranked in the Top 2 even when their freshmen have never played a D-1 game. I just feel that vibe every year. Could be wrong.