Tie-breaking scenarios.

[Zip Watcher]

Did some looking into what the records would be with all of the scenarios out there for Saturday & Here's what I think I've found:

1. If the Zips win on Saturday, the bye is theirs, no tiebreaker's needed.

2. If the Zips lose on Saturday, they will NOT have an opportunity to get the bye. It will really then fall to OU / WMU or BG.

3. Should UA lose & OU win, OU gets the bye with no tiebreakers required (for the bye)

Note: All of the following scenarios assume the following (some of which I'm not 100% certain is correct):

1. The West winner is determined first among just those teams tied from the West.

2. After the West is determined, the winner is removed from the H2H tiebreaker calcs (??????)

3. These all will require a Zips loss & an OU loss.

Some scenarios:

• WMU loses, UT & BG win => 7 way tie at 11-7
  This is well documented elsewhere, but would result in the following H2H records:
  WMU 5-3,OU 6-4, UA 5-5,UT 4-4, BG 4-5, Can't State 4-5, UB 4-6
  I believe that in this case, UT will take the West (TB w/ WMU & BG), and WMU gets the bye.
  Records subtracting UT: WMU 5-2, OU 5-4, UA 4-4, Can't State 4-4, BG 3-5, UB 3-6
  
• WMU Wins, UT & BG win => 6 way tie @ 11-7
  In this case WMU wins the West outright.
  The records of the tied 6 against each other are as follows:
  BG 4-3, OU 5-4, UA 5-4, Can't State 4-4, UT 3-4, UB 3-5
  BG takes the bye.
  
• WMU & BG lose, UT wins => 6 way tie @ 11-7
  Tied records: OU 5-3, Can't State 4-4, WMU 3-3, UT 3-3, UA 4-5, UB 4-5
  The west is determined by UT's win against WMU and the remaining records are:
  WMU 3-2, OU 4-3, Can't State 4-3, UA 3-4, UB 3-5
  That leaves WMU with the bye, I think.
  
• WMU & UT lose, BG wins => 6 way tie @ 11-7
  Tied records: WMU 5-2, OU 5-4, UA 4-4, Can't State 4-4, BG 3-5, UB 3-6
  WMU wins the West since they swept BG, the remaining records become:
  BG 3-2, UA 4-3, Can't State 4-3, OU 4-4, UB 3-2
  BG takes the bye.
  
• WMU & BG win, UT loses => 5 way tie @ 11-7
  WMU wins the West outright, similar scenario as above. Tied records are:
  BG 3-2, UA 4-3, Can't State 4-3, OU 4-4, UB 3-2
  BG takes the bye.
  
• WMU & UT win, BG loses => 5 way tie @ 11-7
  WMU wins the West outright. Tied records are:
  OU 4-3, Can't State 4-3, UA 4-3, UB 3-4, UT 2-3
  OU takes the bye (both 1-1 vs. MIA, OU 1-0 vs. WMU)
  
• WMU wins, BG & UT lose => 4 way tie @ 11-7
  WMU wins the West outright, tied records are:
  Can't State 4-3, UA 3-3, OU 3-3, UB 2-4
  Can't State takes the bye.
  

I'm not sure these are all the permutations, did this pretty quickly. But it would appear that Can't State and UB are entirely out of the running for a bye in the MAC tournament.

If anyone cares to check my math on the records, I'd appreciate a heads up if I missed some numbers. Also, a clarification on what happens if one of the tied teams actually wins the West would help. Are their games still considered in the H2H tiebreak? This would affect scenarios 3 and 4 in OU's favor if these games were still included.

Back to work for me ..

[Z-Pouch]

--- Courtesy of another board and Ohio fan who has a littel extra time on his hands --

Every possible combination -- WOW

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Again, because I'm a huge dork, I computed the most likely scenarios (to the best of my understanding of the tiebreakers...). These all assume that BGSU beats CMU at home, and Toledo beats EMU at home. An upset in either game would throw this all out the window. If BGSU & Toledo both win, these are the 16 remaining possibilities.

If

Miami beats Marshall

Can't beats Ohio

Buffalo beats Akron

Toledo beats EMU

Ball St. beats WMU

BGSU beats CMU

1) Miami 13-5

2) Toledo 11-7 (2-1 vs. WMU & BGSU, 1-0 vs. WMU)

3) WMU 11-7 (5-2 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo, Can't, Ohio)

4) Ohio 11-7 (5-4 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo, Can't, WMU)

5) Akron 11-7 (4-4 vs. BGSU, Buffalo, Can't, Ohio, WMU)

6) Can't 11-7 (4-5 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo, Ohio, WMU)

7) BGSU 11-7 (3-4 vs. Akron, Buffalo, Can't, Ohio, WMU)

8) Buffalo 11-7 (3-7 vs. Akron, BGSU, Can't, Ohio, WMU)

9) Ball St. 10-8

If

Miami beats Marshall

Ohio beats Can't

Buffalo beats Akron

Toledo beats EMU

Ball St. beats WMU

BGSU beats CMU

1) Miami 13-5

2) Toledo 11-7 (2-1 vs. WMU & BGSU, 1-0 vs. WMU)

3) Ohio 12-6

4) WMU 11-7 (4-1 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo)

5) Akron 11-7 (2-2 vs. BGSU, Buffalo, WMU)

6) Buffalo 11-7 (2-3 vs. Akron, BGSU, WMU)

7) BGSU 11-7 (1-3 vs. Akron, Buffalo, WMU)

8) Ball St. 10-8 (1-0 vs. Can't)

9) Can't 10-8 (0-1 vs. Ball St.)

If

Miami beats Marshall

Ohio beats Can't

Buffalo beats Akron

Toledo beats EMU

WMU beats Ball St.

BGSU beats CMU

1) Miami 13-5

2) WMU 12-6

3) Ohio 12-6

4) Akron 11-7 (3-2 vs. BGSU, Buffalo, Toledo)

5) BGSU 11-7 (2-2 vs. Akron, Buffalo, Toledo) (1-0 vs. Buffalo)

6) Buffalo 11-7 (2-2 vs. Akron, BGSU, Toledo) (0-1 vs. BGSU)

7) Toledo 11-7 (2-3 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo)

8) Can't 10-8

9) Ball St. 9-9

If

Miami beats Marshall

Can't beats Ohio

Akron beats Buffalo

Toledo beats EMU

Ball St. beats WMU

BGSU beats CMU

1) Miami 13-5

2) Toledo 11-7 (2-1 vs. WMU & BGSU, 1-0 vs. WMU)

3) Akron 12-6

4) WMU 11-7 (3-1 vs. BGSU, Can't, Ohio)

5) Ohio 11-7 (3-2 vs. BGSU, Can't, WMU)

6) BGSU 11-7 (2-3 vs. Can't, Ohio, WMU)

7) Can't 11-7 (1-3 vs. BGSU, Ohio, WMU)

8) Buffalo 10-8 (1-0 vs. Ball St.)

9) Ball St. 10-8 (0-1 vs. Buffalo)

If

Miami beats Marshall

Can't beats Ohio

Akron beats Buffalo

Toledo beats EMU

WMU beats Ball St.

BGSU beats CMU

1) Miami 13-5

2) WMU 12-6

3) Akron 12-6

4) BGSU 11-7 (3-2 vs. Can't, Ohio, Toledo) (1-1 vs. Ohio, 1-0vs. Miami)

5) Ohio 11-7 (3-2 vs. BGSU, Can't, Toledo) (1-1 vs. BGSU, 1-1 vs. Miami)

6) Toledo 11-7 (2-2 vs. BGSU, Can't, Ohio)

7) Can't 11-7 (1-3 vs. BGSU, Ohio, Toledo)

8) Buffalo 10-8

9) Ball St. 9-9

If

Miami beats Marshall

Can't beats Ohio

Buffalo beats Akron

Toledo beats EMU

WMU beats Ball St.

BGSU beats CMU

1) Miami 13-5

2) WMU 12-6

3) BGSU 11-7 (4-3 vs. Akron, Buffalo, Can't, Ohio, Toledo)

4) Akron 11-7 (5-4 vs. BGSU, Buffalo, Can't, Ohio, Toledo) (2-0 vs. Ohio)

5) Ohio 11-7 (5-4 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo, Can't, Toledo) (0-2 vs. Akron)

6) Can't 11-7 (4-4 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo, Ohio, Toledo)

7) Toledo 11-7 (3-4 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo, Can't, Ohio)

8) Buffalo 11-7 (3-5 vs. Akron, BGSU, Can't, Ohio, Toledo)

9) Ball St. 9-9

If

Miami beats Marshall

Ohio beats Can't

Akron beats Buffalo

Toledo beats EMU

Ball St. beats WMU

BGSU beats CMU

1) Miami 13-5

2) Toledo 11-7 (2-1 vs. WMU & BGSU, 1-0 vs. WMU)

3) Akron 12-6 (2-0 vs. Ohio)

4) Ohio 12-6 (0-2 vs. Akron)

5) WMU 11-7 (2-0 vs. BGSU)

6) BGSU (0-2 vs. WMU)

7) Buffalo 10-8 (2-1 vs. Can't & Ball St.)

8) Ball St. 10-8 (1-1 vs. Buffalo & Can't)

9) Can't 10-8 (1-2 vs. Buffalo & Ball St.)

If

Miami beats Marshall

Ohio beats Can't

Akron beats Buffalo

Toledo beats EMU

WMU beats Ball St.

BGSU beats CMU

1) Miami 13-5

2) WMU 12-6

3) Akron 12-6 (2-0 vs. Ohio)

4) Ohio 12-6 (0-2 vs. Akron)

5) BGSU 11-7 (1-1 vs. Toledo, 1-0 vs. Miami)

6) Toledo 11-7 (1-1 vs. BGSU, 0-1 vs. Miami)

7) Buffalo 10-8 (1-1 vs. Can't, 1-1 vs. Miami, 1-1 vs. WMU)

8) Can't 10-8 (1-1 vs. Buffalo, 1-1 vs. Miami, 0-1 vs. WMU)

9) Ball St. 9-9

If

Marshall beats Miami

Ohio beats Can't

Buffalo beats Akron

Toledo beats EMU

Ball St. beats WMU

BGSU beats CMU

1) Ohio 12-6 (1-1 vs. Miami, 3-1 vs. Toledo, WMU, BGSU)

2) Toledo 11-7 (2-1 vs. WMU & BGSU, 1-0 vs. WMU)

3) Miami 12-6 (1-1 vs. Ohio, 2-1 vs. Toledo, WMU, BGSU)

4) WMU 11-7 (4-1 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo)

5) Akron 11-7 (2-2 vs. BGSU, Buffalo, WMU)

6) Buffalo 11-7 (2-3 vs. Akron, BGSU, WMU)

7) BGSU 11-7 (1-3 vs. Akron, Buffalo, WMU)

8) Ball St. 10-8 (1-0 vs. Can't)

9) Can't 10-8 (0-1 vs. Can't)

If

Marshall beats Miami

Can't beats Ohio

Akron beats Buffalo

Toledo beats EMU

Ball St. beats WMU

BGSU beats CMU

1) Miami 12-6 (1-1 vs. Akron, 2-1 vs. Toledo, WMU, BGSU)

2) Toledo 11-7 (2-1 vs. WMU & BGSU, 1-0 vs. WMU)

3) Akron 12-6 (1-1 vs. Miami, 2-2 vs. Toledo, WMU, BGSU)

4) WMU 11-7 (3-1 vs. BGSU, Can't, Ohio)

5) Ohio 11-7 (3-2 vs. BGSU, Can't, WMU)

6) BGSU 11-7 (2-3 vs. Can't, Ohio, WMU)

7) Can't 11-7 (1-3 vs. BGSU, Ohio, WMU)

8) Buffalo 10-8 (1-0 vs. Buffalo)

9) Ball St. 10-8 (0-1 vs. Buffalo)

If

Marshall beats Miami

Ohio beats Can't

Buffalo beats Akron

Toledo beats EMU

WMU beats Ball St.

BGSU beats CMU

1) Ohio 12-6 (2-1 vs. WMU & Miami, 1-1 vs. Miami, 4-3 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo, Toledo)

2) WMU 12-6 (0-2 vs. Miami & Ohio)

3) Miami 12-6 (2-1 vs. WMU & Ohio, 1-1 vs. Ohio, 3-3 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo, Toledo)

4) Akron 11-7 (3-2 vs. BGSU, Buffalo, Toledo)

5) BGSU 11-7 (2-2 vs. Akron, Buffalo, Toledo) (1-0 vs. Buffalo)

6) Buffalo 11-7 (2-2 vs. Akron, BGSU, Toledo) (0-1 vs. BGSU)

7) Toledo 11-7 (2-3 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo)

8) Can't 10-8

9) Ball St. 9-9

If

Marshall beats Miami

Ohio beats Can't

Akron beats Buffalo

Toledo beats EMU

WMU beats Ball St.

BGSU beats CMU

1) Miami 12-6 (3-2 vs. WMU, Akron & Ohio) (1-1 vs. Miami, 1-0 vs. WMU)

2) WMU 12-6 (1-2 vs. Miami, Akron, Ohio)

3) Akron 12-6 (3-2 vs. Miami, WMU, Ohio) (1-1 vs. Miami, 0-1 vs. WMU)

4) Ohio 12-6 (2-3 vs. Miami, WMU, Akron)

5) Toledo 11-7 (1-1 vs. BGSU, 2-3 vs. Miami, WMU, Akron, Ohio)

6) BGSU 11-7 (1-1 vs. Toledo, 2-4 vs. Miami, WMU, Akron, Ohio)

7) Buffalo 10-8 (1-1 vs. Can't, 1-1 vs. Miami, 1-1 vs. WMU)

8) Can't 10-8 (1-1 vs. Buffalo, 1-1 vs. Miami, 0-1 vs. WMU)

9) Ball St. 9-9

If

Marshall beats Miami

Ohio beats Can't

Akron beats Buffalo

Toledo beats EMU

Ball St. beats WMU

BGSU beats CMU

1) Akron 12-6 (3-1 vs. Miami & Ohio)

2) Toledo 11-7 (2-1 vs. WMU & BGSU, 1-0 vs. WMU)

3) Miami 12-6 (2-2 vs. Akron & Ohio)

4) Ohio 12-6 (1-3 vs. Miami & Akron)

5) WMU 11-7 (2-1 vs. Toledo & BGSU, 0-1 vs. Toledo, 2-0 vs. BGSU)

6) BGSU 11-7 (1-3 vs. WMU & Toledo, 0-2 vs. WMU)

7) Buffalo 10-8 (2-1 vs. Can't & Ball St.)

8) Ball St. 10-8 (1-1 vs. Buffalo & Can't)

9) Can't 10-8 (1-2 vs. Buffalo & Ball St.)

If

Marshall beats Miami

Can't beats Ohio

Buffalo beats Akron

Toledo beats EMU

WMU beats Ball St.

BGSU beats CMU

1) Miami 12-6 (1-0 vs. WMU)

2) WMU 12-6 (0-1 vs. Miami)

3) BGSU 11-7 (4-3 vs. Akron, Buffalo, Can't, Ohio, Toledo)

4) Akron 11-7 (5-4 vs. BGSU, Buffalo, Can't, Ohio, Toledo) (2-0 vs. Ohio)

5) Ohio 11-7 (5-4 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo, Can't, Toledo) (0-2 vs. Akron)

6) Can't 11-7 (4-4 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo, Ohio, Toledo)

7) Toledo 11-7 (3-4 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo, Can't, Ohio)

8) Buffalo 11-7 (3-5 vs. Akron, BGSU, Can't, Ohio, Toledo)

9) Ball St. 9-9

If

Marshall beats Miami

Can't beats Ohio

Akron beats Buffalo

Toledo beats EMU

WMU beats Ball St.

BGSU beats CMU

1) Miami 12-6 (2-1 vs. WMU & Akron)

2) WMU 12-6 (1-1 vs. Miami & Akron)

3) Akron 12-6 (1-2 vs. WMU & Miami)

4) Ohio 11-7 (3-2 vs. BGSU, Can't, Toledo) (1-1 vs. BGSU, 2-3 vs. Miami, WMU, Akron)

5) BGSU 11-7 (3-2 vs. Can't, Ohio, Toledo) (1-1 vs. Ohio, 1-3 vs. Miami, WMU, Akron)

6) Toledo 11-7 (2-2 vs. BGSU, Can't, Ohio)

7) Can't 11-7 (1-3 vs. BGSU, Ohio, Toledo)

8) Buffalo 10-8

9) Ball St. 9-9

If

Marshall beats Miami

Can't beats Ohio

Buffalo beats Akron

Toledo beats EMU

Ball St. beats WMU

BGSU beats CMU

1) Miami 12-6

2) Toledo 11-7 (2-1 vs. WMU & BGSU, 1-0 vs. WMU)

3) WMU 11-7 (5-2 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo, Can't, Ohio)

4) Ohio 11-7 (5-4 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo, Can't, WMU)

5) Akron 11-7 (4-4 vs. BGSU, Buffalo, Can't, Ohio, WMU)

6) Can't 11-7 (4-5 vs. Akron, BGSU, Buffalo, Ohio, WMU)

7) BGSU 11-7 (3-4 vs. Akron, Buffalo, Can't, Ohio, WMU)

8) Buffalo 11-7 (3-7 vs. Akron, BGSU, Can't, Ohio, WMU)

9) Ball St. 10-8

[Z-Pouch]

My favorite

If

Marshall beats Miami

Ohio beats Can't

Akron beats Buffalo

Toledo beats EMU

Ball St. beats WMU

BGSU beats CMU

1) Akron 12-6 (3-1 vs. Miami & Ohio)

2) Toledo 11-7 (2-1 vs. WMU & BGSU, 1-0 vs. WMU)

3) Miami 12-6 (2-2 vs. Akron & Ohio)

4) Ohio 12-6 (1-3 vs. Miami & Akron)

5) WMU 11-7 (2-1 vs. Toledo & BGSU, 0-1 vs. Toledo, 2-0 vs. BGSU)

6) BGSU 11-7 (1-3 vs. WMU & Toledo, 0-2 vs. WMU)

7) Buffalo 10-8 (2-1 vs. Can't & Ball St.)

8) Ball St. 10-8 (1-1 vs. Buffalo & Can't)

9) Can't 10-8 (1-2 vs. Buffalo & Ball St.)

[Z-Pouch]

It's early (almost half) but Marshall up 7 on Miami. The Herd is at home -- WHO KNOWS ????

Rooting for Marshall

[Z-Pouch]

At half.

Marshall 29

Miami 22