CFN MAC BEAT --MTSU Prediction

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Sept. 9, 2004

The MAC beat

News and info on the Mid-American Conference

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By Dave Ruthenberg

That resounding “thud†that you heard this past weekend was the sound of MAC teams landing back to earth. After last season’s giant-killer season, many expected the MAC to continue to challenge the BCS schools’ self proclaimed right of college football supremacy. Instead, it appears that the MAC programs may have delivered a bit of a wake up call to their BCS brethren who decided it was no longer wise to take the MAC lightly. The results were ugly as the MAC went winless past weekend against non-conference Division 1A competition.

While it could be reasonably argued that the results may have been somewhat predictable considering that nearly every significant non-conference game was played on the road, mostly against Big 10 competition, it can hardly explain away a home loss by Marshall to first-year Sun Belt Conference member Troy, a team which upset Marshall last year and a game in which Marshall seemingly had all of the motivation needed to avenge their loss. So, how bad was it? Well, with a tip of the hat to that old Clint Eastwood spaghetti western, we present “The Good, The Bad and The Ugly:â€

The Good:

Eastern Michigan 37, Buffalo 34. Okay, it was a conference game between two traditional cellar dwellers but it provided the most excitement of any MAC game this past week. It marked the beginning of the Jeff Genyk era on a high note at EMU. EMU’s star tailback Anthony Sherrell rushed for 151 yards, and more impressively, the game drew nearly 18,000 fans in Ypsilanti.

Western Michigan 42, Tennessee-Martin 0. Well, WMU didn’t lose so this was a positive anyway. Hard to figure though how this game prepares the Broncos for their tilt against Virginia Tech. Also difficult to understand why Western would bail out of their scheduled game against Connecticut for this game.

Ohio 42, VMI 14. Okay, another game against a hapless 1AA program but considering the struggles of Ohio over the last couple of seasons combined with installing a new offensive scheme this was probably not a bad tune up for this program. Ohio quarterback Ryan Hawk looked decent going 13-24 for 223 yards and three touchdowns.

The Bad:

Boston College 19, Ball State 11. A defensive battle that could have been won by the Cardinals if they just could have moved the ball, or better yet, crossed the goal line. The Cardinals still appear to have a lot of work to do on the offensive side of the ball as their ground game could only muster 105 yards.

Maryland 23, Northern Illinois 20. Huskies’ starting quarterback Josh Haldi was injured on the first series of plays, actually aggravated a stress fracture in his foot. His backup, Phil Horvath, filled in admirably and nearly pulled the game out at the end in College Park, but alas it was just another loss for the MAC.

Oklahoma 40, Bowling Green 24. I almost put this one in the “good†category, but not quite. The Falcons were game but the Sooners just had too much. BGSU had closed the gap to 37-24 on an interception return for a TD by Keon Newson but then promptly gave a up a clock-grinding nine minute drive late in the 4th quarter that allowed the Sooners to clinch the game with a late field goal.

The Ugly:

Michigan 43, Miami 10. Miami essentially gave this one away with seven turnovers, the most egregious being Josh Betts’ 4th quarter interception which was returned 88 yards by Michigan’s Ernest Shazor after Miami had closed to within 24-10 and was driving for another potential touchdown. After that it was Katie bar the door ugly.

Wisconsin 34, UCF 6. UCF was playing its first game in the George O’Leary era, but O’Leary was not at the game due to the death of his mother. Incredibly, UCF has the highest coaching payroll of any collegiate program in Florida. Although we do hear that the ‘Canes have a higher player payroll.

Iowa 39, Can't State 7. The Golden flushes were never in this game. It was a classic case of being overmatched, overwhelmed and undermanned.

Penn State 48, Akron 10. The Zips probably have the best quarterback in the nation in Charlie Frye who went 29-36 for 223 yards. Unfortunately, they may also have the worst defense in the nation as they made a mediocre Penn State offense look positively dazzling as the Nittany Lions scored at will in the first half.

Troy 17, Marshall 15. The most puzzling, disheartening loss of them all belongs to the Thundering Herd. How did the Herd lose to Troy with all of the incentive in the world behind them for this game? Simple. The Trojans frustrated Stan Hill all day into making bad decisions. With their current schedule, the Herd could be looking at an 0-3 start to the season. Not that the rest of the MAC will shed any tears for the nearly departed Herd.

Indiana 41, Central Michigan 10. The Brian Kelly era got off to a rather inglorious start. Not that the Chips were expected to win here but Indiana is not exactly an upper echelon Big 10 team either and it would not have been asking too much for the Chips to be competitive in this one.

Minnesota 63, Toledo 21. This was probably the most crushing of the MAC defeats over the weekend as many saw this as a winnable game. Instead, Toledo’s defensive weaknesses were badly exposed by a Gophers team that had no trouble moving the ball virtually at will.

MAC Home Attendance

With so much attention focused on the NCAA’s proposed new attendance regulations, we would be remiss not to track home attendance for the MAC which shows some good signs of exceeding the mystical mark of 15,000 per game. Attendance last week:

Marshall: 29,382

Ball State: 23,718

Western Michigan: 21,643

Eastern Michigan: 17,750

Ohio: 17,527

Average: 22,004

Look Out Vegas!

In the first full week of prognosticating MAC games, we went 11-2 straight up. Best pick of the week: Indiana 37, Central Michigan 10 (actual: Indiana 41, Central Michigan 10). Worst pick of the week: Toledo 38, Minnesota 34 (actual: Minnesota 63, Toledo 21, ugh!).

Players of the Week:

Offensive Player of the Week:

RB Anthony Sherrell, Eastern Michigan. 24 carries for 151 yards rushing; TD.

Runner-Up:

QB Charlie Frye, Akron. 29-36 for 223 yards passing.

Defensive Player of the Week:

SS Ray Smith, Northern Illinois. 17 tackles, 13 solo and caused two fumbles.

Runner-Up:

SS Keon Newson, Bowling Green. 10 tackles, 28 yard interception return for TD.

Doak Walker Award Nominees

The Doak Walker Award, awarded to the nation’s top collegiate running back, has announced it’s list of nominees and among those listed from the MAC are Earl Charles of Marshall, Alex Haynes of UCF and PJ Pope of Bowling Green.

This Week’s Game Previews

It could be “Redemption Saturday†for the MAC this week as all 14 teams will be in action in non-conference action. A few wins this Saturday and the MAC will be able to put the bad taste of the past weekend’s games behind them.

Ball State (0-1) at #25 Purdue (1-0)

Series: Purdue Leads 5-0

Outlook: Fresh off its 51-0 nationally televised thrashing of Syracuse, Purdue looks to make it two straight as it hosts its in-state rival from Muncie. Boilermakers quarterback Kyle Orton opened the season strong going 16-30 for 287 yards passing and four touchdowns in only three quarters of work against Syracuse. Ball State meanwhile is coming off a solid defensive effort in its home loss to Boston College. The Cardinals will need another stellar defensive effort while trying to establish a ground game to aid quarterback Billy Lynch who went 19-32 last week for 147 yards.

Prediction: Purdue 31, Ball Sate 9.

Central Michigan (0-1) at Michigan State (0-1)

Series: Michigan State Leads 3-2

TV: ESPN Plus

Outlook: CMU plays it’s second straight Big 10 opponent on the road after opening last week with a loss to Indiana. Michigan State meanwhile is smarting from its upset loss at Rutgers. The Chips will need another strong outing from its outstanding running back, Jerry Seymour, who had 111 yards rushing last week and led the team in receiving with 62 yards. Meanwhile Michigan State has a major dilemma at quarterback as fifth year senior Damon Dowdell struggled mightily against a mediocre Rutgers defense. Still, it will take several Spartan miscues for the Chips to pull this one out.

Prediction: Michigan State 27, Central Michigan 13.

Western Michigan (1-0) at Virginia Tech (0-1)

Series: Virginia Tech leads 2-0.

Outlook: Coming off a tough loss to defending co-national champ, USC, the Hokies make their home debut against the Broncos who have not won a non-conference road game since defeating Iowa in 2000. Broncos’ QB Blayne Baggett will need to be sharp to keep WMU in this game.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 38, Western Michigan 17.

Southern Illinois (1-0) at Northern Illinois (0-1)

Series: Northern Illinois leads 27-13-1

TV: FSN Chicago

Outlook: Southern Illinois enters this game as the Number 1 ranked team in Division 1AA led by Auburn transfer Brandon Jacobs who rushed for 105 yards and had four touchdowns last week against SE Missouri State. Northern Illinois enters this game without starting quarterback Josh Haldi who is recovering from a stress fracture. His replacement, Phil Horvath filled in capably against Maryland and the Huskies should handle the Salukis without too much of a problem.

Prediction: Northern Illinois 47, Southern Illinois 13.

Marshall (0-1) at Ohio State (1-0)

Series: First Meeting

TV: ABC

Outlook: Marshall will be facing a swarming Buckeyes defense as Ohio State is coming off a 27-6 victory against Cincinnati. For Marshall to have any chance here they will need to do a better job of protecting Stan Hill as the Herd surrendered eight QB sacks last week against Troy. There is some familiarity here too as Ohio State’s defensive coordinator, Mark Snyder, is a 1988 Marshall graduate who still holds Marshall’s all time record of 10 interceptions in a season. Also, OSU coach Jim Tressel has a losing record against Marshall, going 2-3 while he was head coach at Youngstown State. He should have no trouble evening his all time mark this Saturday.

Prediction: Ohio State 42, Marshall 3.

Middle Tennessee State (0-0) at Akron (0-1)

Series: Middle Tennessee State leads 6-1

Outlook: While all eyes will be on Akron’s phenomenal quarterback, Charlie Frye, it will be the Zips defense that must step up if Akron is to come out of this game with a victory. MTSU had their opening game against Florida postponed due to Hurricane Frances. While the Zips have struggled on the road, they carry a five game home winning streak into this game against Middle Tennessee State, the first non-conference 1A team to visit the Rubber Bowl since 2000. Look for Frye to put up some more impressive numbers in a potentially high scoring affair.

Prediction: Akron 31, Middle Tennessee State 21.

Syracuse (0-1) at Buffalo (0-1)

Series: Buffalo leads 3-1-1

TV: ESPN Game Plan

Outlook: The Bulls host Syracuse in what is their biggest game since making the jump to Division 1A. The wolves are howling in Syracuse after Syracuse was pummeled by Purdue last week 51-0. A poor outing here could hasten the departure of Orangemen head coach Paul Pasqualoni. Conversely, Buffalo is coming off a tough conference loss to Eastern Michigan, however, quarterback Randall Secky appeared to lock down the quarterback job and showed signs of improvement. While Buffalo leads the all-time series, these two neighbors have not met on the gridiron in Buffalo since 1899. If Buffalo is able to force some early mistakes by the Orangemen’s inexperienced offense and slippery running back Dave Dawson gets loose for the Bulls, Buffalo could make this an interesting game.

Prediction: Syracuse 44, Buffalo 24.

Eastern Michigan (1-0) at #11 Florida (0-0)

Series: First Meeting

TV: Sunshine Network

Outlook: One week after their season-opening win against Buffalo, EMU gets the unenviable task of traveling to “the swamp†in Gainesville to take on the 11th ranked Florida Gators. The Gators’ home opener against Middle Tennessee was postponed due to Hurricane Frances. The Gators come into this game with an advantage in size and speed at nearly every position and EMU will be hard pressed to keep up in the Florida heat. Florida returns it’s top quarterback from last season, Sophomore Chris Leak. The Gators’ top returning tackles leader, Channing Crowder, is also a Sophomore. In fact 66 of the players on Florida’s roster are either Freshman or Sophomores. Eagles quarterback, Matt Bohnet, will need to guard against turnovers for EMU to have a legitimate shot in this game.

Prediction: Florida 58, Eastern Michigan 13.

Toledo (0-1) at Kansas (1-0)

Series: Kansas leads 1-0

Outlook: Toledo must make improvements on their dreadful defensive performance against Minnesota. The Rockets defense was only a rumor as it gave up a gaudy 704 yards of total offense to the Gophers and gave up the most points by a Toledo squad since it allowed 61 points to Louisiana Tech in 1996. Kansas comes off a non-descript victory of lightly regarded Tulsa, 21-3. Toledo quarterback Bruce Gradkowski should be able to move the Rockets offense against the Jayhawks but it will still come down to whether Toledo’s defense shows up for this one.

Prediction: Kansas 27, Toledo 24.

Southeast Missouri State (0-1) at Bowling Green (0-1)

Series: First Meeting

Outlook: This one has “blow out†written all over it. Bowling Green, fresh off a gallant effort against Oklahoma, appears to have a very solid quarterback in Omar Jacobs who went 24-41 for 218 yards and two touchdowns against the Sooners. Meanwhile the Indians are coming off a loss to Southern Illinois, the top ranked team in 1AA. But there is no comparison between Oklahoma and Southern Illinois. The Falcons should waltz through this one.

Prediction: Bowling Green 52, SE Missouri State 7.

#10 West Virginia (1-0) at UCF (0-1)

Series West Virginia leads 1-0

Outlook: It doesn’t get any easier for the Golden Knights as they play host to tenth ranked West Virginia which is coming off of 56-23 victory over East Carolina. For UCF, it will be the first game under head coach George O’Leary who missed UCF’s game at Wisconsin due to the death of his mother. UCF will need to contain West Virginia’s Kay-Jay Harris who rushed for 337 yards on 25 carries last week. Both the ground and aerial attack for UCF will need to show significant improvement for the Knights to have any chance at the upset here.

Prediction: West Virginia 42, UCF 17.

Liberty (1-0) at Can't State (0-1)

Series: First Meeting

Outlook: Can't State welcomes back quarterback Josh Cribbs who sat out last week’s game due to a one-game suspension. Cribbs should provide the spark needed for the Golden flushes to secure their first win of the season. Division 1AA Liberty is coming off a 55-17 thrashing of West Virginia Tech and had two players top the 100 yard rushing mark last week, Junior Marcus Hamilton and Senior Eugene Goodman. Last week against Iowa, the flushes’ defense accounted for four sacks of Iowa quarterbacks. The flushes only had thirteen sacks in all of 2003.

Prediction: Can't State 41, Liberty 10.

Ohio (1-0) at Pittsburgh (0-0)

Series: First Meeting

Outlook: The Bobcats are looking to start the season 2-0 for the first time since 1997. However, they will be considerable underdogs against a resurgent Pittsburgh team. The Panthers’ season opener also fell victim to Hurricane Frances as their game against South Florida was postponed. Quarterback Ryan Hawk showed good poise in running the Bobcats’ offense against VMI last week and had two running backs top the 100 yard rushing mark as Justin Rousch ran for 130 yards and Kalvin McRae ran for 100 yards.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Ohio 13.

Miami (1-1) at Cincinnati (0-1)

Series: Miami leads 58-43-7

Outlook: Miami and Cincinnati hook up for the 109th time in the fifth longest running rivalry in Division 1A. Miami will need quarterback Josh Betts to show more poise in running the RedHawks’ offense and stay away from turnovers. Meanwhile, Miami boasts the nation’s most dangerous return man in Ryne Robinson who has actually had more punt returns for touchdowns called back than most squads have in an entire season. If Miami can stay away from the mistakes, they should come away with a victory against a Cincinnati squad that struggled to move the ball against Ohio State last week while the RedHawks limited Michigan offense to only 273 yards.

Prediction: Miami 31, Cincinnati 20.

On Tap:

Looking ahead, here is the schedule for MAC teams for September 18:

Northern Illinois at Iowa State

UCF at Penn State

Ball State at Missouri

SE Missouri State at Central Michigan

Western Michigan at Illinois

Marshall at Georgia

Ohio at Miami

Toledo at Eastern Michigan

Buffalo at Nevada

Akron at Virginia

Can't State at Rutgers

Have any questions or comments? You can send email to druthenberg@twmi.rr.com.