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=>Following MAC West Scenarios...

I. NIU Beats Toledo: NIU

II. Toledo Wins Out: Toledo

III. Toledo Beats NIU Then Loses To BUGS:

A. NIU Beats EMU: NIU

B. NIU Loses To EMU: BUGS

[iII.B. EXPLANATION AS FOLLOWS

1. BUGS Beat Marshall: BUGS has best record

2. BUGS Lose To Marshall:

a. EMU Beats Can't: EMU, UT, BUGS, & NIU finish 6-2. UT and BUGS have best head-to-head record (2-1) and divisional record (5-1). BUGS beats UT so BUGS wins

b. EMU Loses To Can't: NIU, BUGS, & UT finish 6-2. Once again UT and BUGS have best divisional record of 5-1 (assuming that is next tie-breaker). BUGS beat UT so BUGS wins]

I am sure I am missing something.

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