Mid-majors benefit from adjusted formula

[Dr Z]

Mid-majors benefit from adjusted formula

By Stu Durando

Of the Post-Dispatch

02/27/2005

RPI

In the world of controversial, computer-generated college rankings, the Ratings Percentage Index has taken a back seat since the birth of its younger, messier brother, the Bowl Championship Series.

While football's BCS has undergone constant change amid massive criticism, basketball's RPI has remained constant and, thus, less debated. Until this season.

As some conferences around the country begin their postseason tournaments this week, the RPI will undergo its most intense scrutiny to date because more mid-major programs than ever are in position to reach the NCAA Tournament. With a few more wins, the likes of St. Mary's, Wichita State and Akron might replace more recognizable names.

They have the 24-year-old RPI to thank.

The formula was altered this season to give more weight to road wins and penalize for home losses. And although it is only one tool used in the selection of at-large teams, its weight cannot be underestimated.

As a result of the changes, 17 mid-majors are in the top 50 in the most recent approximation of the RPI used by the men's tournament committee. Committee chairman Bob Bowlsby is backing the new computations and already has fessed up to the possible ramifications.

"I think it's an accurate representation of their strength," he said. "It's also maybe a representation of a couple of major conferences that aren't going to get quite as many teams as they have in past years. ... To the extent some of the major conferences may not get as many in, it offers an opportunity for some of the mid-majors."

Conference tournaments begin Tuesday and run through Selection Sunday on March 13, and some of the less prestigious events figure to receive more attention.

At this point, it appears the Missouri Valley Conference, which plays at Savvis Center Friday through March 8, could receive two at-large berths. The Mid-American Conference is in a similar position. The West Coast Conference and America East have the potential to send at-large teams where they normally wouldn't.

Some mid-majors are so entrenched in the RPI that losing in a conference tournament might not end their chances. That could be the case for Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Vermont, Miami (Ohio), Pacific, Nevada and St. Mary's, all of which are in the top 30 of the RPI, although Miami and Vermont lost Sunday.

How did they get there? In most cases, by winning on the road, where Vermont is 9-6, Pacific 11-1, Nevada 9-2 and St. Mary's 8-4. Bowlsby said the change in the RPI formula was made to finally reward road success, which happens in less than one-third of all games.

"That being the case, we wanted the RPI to be minimally adjusted so that it reflected the difficulty of winning on the road and gave appropriate rewards when teams do achieve wins on the road," he said. "Conversely, it also represents a bigger penalty for home teams that don't defend their home floor."

The RPI has not necessarily gained power, and ultimately the selection committee - not a computer - will select the at-large participants. Bowlsby is fond of referring to the RPI as a "blunt object" in its use more than a "sharp prediction object." The committee annually plays down its importance.

Mid-majors have not received more than three at-large berths in one year since 1995, but that could change. Major programs that previously would have been in good position with the RPI find themselves on the bubble, and playing deep into their tournaments will become more critical.

Minnesota is No. 49, whereas under the old formula the Golden Gophers would be No. 32. Georgia Tech is No. 44 instead of No. 30. West Virginia is No. 52 instead of No. 41.

Meanwhile, many mid-majors have received huge bumps in the new RPI. Miami (Ohio) was No. 25 before Sunday but would have been firmly on the bubble at No. 43 last season, while Holy Cross is No. 35 instead of No. 60 and Old Dominion is No. 36, not No. 61.

"Some have said the relative strength of teams is distorted by weighting," said Doug Elgin, commissioner of the Missouri Valley Conference. "It has raised some eyebrows when you look at the relative strength of teams. It hurt some teams and helped some teams. I believe from the bottom of my heart that it more fairly takes into consideration where teams have played."

The committee never has put quotas on conferences, thus it is feasible that Akron of the MAC could get a nod over a sixth team from the Atlantic Coast Conference, or that Northern Iowa could get the committee's approval instead of a sixth team from the Big 12.

Further positioning and RPI adjustments - some potentially major - will take place during conference tournament play and in some cases before tournaments begin.

Bowlsby was pelted with questions related to the RPI and the improved standing of mid-majors during a teleconference last week and seemed unfazed by the shifting landscape.

"I think that kind of comment relative to how many mid-majors make it in is a reflection of how good college basketball is throughout the country," he said. "The committee has talked till we're blue in the face that (RPI) is just one of many tools. ... But the fact of the matter is it serves a role, it serves an enhanced role now that it's been refined a little bit. I think it's a better tool."

source (click here)

[Z-Pouch]

These new RPI ratings are just not making any sense to me - We are still up on Can't and then you have Miami, losers of two in a row, maintaining their position.

My guess -- the NCAA selection squad throws these out very fast.