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A Mid-Major National Basketball Champ?


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San Diego State's 2009 recruiting class was ranked #15 in the country and #1 among non-BCS schools, according to Hoop Scoop. If transfers were included, their 2009 class would have been closer to #5 in the country. SDSU is pretty deep in talent for a team that's not a traditional national basketball power.

I think we all agree that Zeke's junior and senior seasons offer the best possibility for the Zips to produce a good winning percentage, decent national ranking, and potential tournament run. To accomplish that, Zeke's playing will need to be significantly improved. Even then, he can't do it by himself. The rest of the team has to gel, and there are a lot of question marks. The potential is there, but it must be fully realized.

Beyond that, the odds are still badly stacked against any MAC team getting an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. About two-thirds of the Zips regular season and MAC tournament games are against other MAC teams, whose generally low RPI is going to drag down the Zips SOS and RPI. The average RPI of all the MAC teams the Zips play is probably in the 150-200 range, so the Zips would have to play a really tough OOC schedule to offset that. Not only that, they'd have to win a good number of those tough games to pump up their RPI.

In the end, SOS is not as important as simply winning games. Win enough games against any decent level of competition, and even a MAC team could get consideration for an NCAA at-large bid. Studying the SOS, RPI and winning percentages of the best teams who previously did not receive NCAA bids will give a realistic benchmark for what the Zips would have to achieve to even be in the conversation.

In my humble opinion, if the Zips (or any other MAC team) lose in the MAC tournament championship game next season, they would need to have no more than 4 or 5 losses on the season to be considered for an NCAA at-large bid.

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