MAC East Champion Scenarios

[mollautt]

=>MAC EAST CHAMPION SCENARIOS

I. AKRON WINS OUT: Akron

II. AKRON LOSE TO OHIO, BEAT MIAMI

A. Marshall wins out: Marshall

B. Marshall loses 1 or 2 games: Akron

III. AKRON BEAT OHIO, LOSE TO MIAMI

A. Marshall wins out: Marshall

B. Marshall lose 1 game:

1. Miami beat WMU: Miami

2. Miami lose to WMU: 3 way tie. Each 6-2 MAC, 5-1 East, 1-1 head to head. #

C. Marshall loses 2 games: Miami

IV. AKRON LOSE BOTH

A. Marshall wins out: Marshall

B. Marshall lose 1 game:

1. Miami beat WMU: Miami

2. Miami lose to WMU: Marshall

C. Marshall loses 2 games: Miami

# If next tiebreaker is head-to-head scoring, Marshall finishes with +5. Akron is now +3 and thus eliminated from finishing ahead of Marshall with a loss to Miami. Miami is –8. Miami would have to beat Akron by 14 points to finish +6. Miami beating Akron by 13 would leave a tie at +5 giving Marshall the head-to-head edge.

[Dr Z]

Thanx. Good Work. I looked for something like this in the Beacon today

I pick (I)

SI gives some Props to Frye

[mollautt]

=>Glad you like it. Below is something I have run on each of the 3 teams chances of winning the MAC East. Obviousy, it is my subjective opinion that came up with the percents. Feel free to add your own into each equation if you differ. Hope my math is right.

A. AKRON'S CHANCE OF WINNING THE EAST:

Akron winning @ Ohio: 60%

Akron beating to Miami at home: 35%

Akron's chances of winning out: 21% (.6 x .35 = .21).

B. MIAMI'S CHANCES:

[who cares?] wining @ BUGS: 30%

Marshall winning @ WMU: 98%

Marshall's chances of losing 1 or more games: 70.6% (.3 x .98 = .294. Then 1.0 - .294 = .706)

Miami win at crAkron: 65%

Miami win at WMU: 95%

Percentage chance of Miami winning the East: 46.95% (.706 x .7 x .95 = .46949)

C. MARSHALL'S CHANCES:

Beating BUGS on the road: 30%

Beating WMU at home: 98%

Akron winning @ Ohio: 60%

Akron beating to Miami at home: 35%

Akron's chances of losing 1 or more games: 79% (.6 x .35 = .21. Then 1.0 - .21 = .79)

Percentage chance of Marshall winning the East: 23.23% (.3 x .98 x .79= .23226)

NOTE: All these stats include only scenarios where a team wins out.

[Zipsrifle]

Though I find the scenarios thought provoking, I'm not that keen on the chance of winning thing. Just the fact that you started out with guessed percentages and are using that data to come to a conclusion that appears to have some mathematical significance (with one hundredths of a percent accuracy no less).....I don't know. 21% + 46.95%+23.23% = 91.18%..... where did the other 8.82% go?? I'm just giving you crap....I know it's fun to try to make predictions. I give us a 50% chance....either we win, or we don't.

Actually, all I care about now is OU. We need to beat them or it's all off. I don't expect an easy game either. The Zips are not a team that can take ANY team lightly!

[mollautt]

=>The missing 8.82% or so is for those scenarios where none of the 3 teams win out. Such as Akron winning the East in Scenario IIB (Akron lose to OU, beat Miami, and Marshall losing at least 1 game) in my initial post.