I think shifting from 18 conf. games to 16 (10 division, 6 out of division) will help with overall records.
BG, CMU, WMU, EMU, UT may have problems. (WMU minus Rost and Reed?) Miami has some big holes to fill and no one right now who can fill them adequately, though I don't doubt they will be tough somehow, some way. The power is all in the East. Ball St should be the favorite in the west, imho, with UT having gaping holes and being in Joplin's last year. Buffalo gradutes a lot, and are without Battle at the point. NIU looked improved as the season went along, but how good will they get? Not a contender that I can see.
I think Akron, OU, and we will all be improved from being near the top this year. But all need to imporve to make at-large chances better. This year just didn't get the job done: a pack of teams at 11-7 is a ticket to stay home most years. OOC scheduling and success is critical to at-large chances and with two more games to add into that schedule, we should be better off.