Humpty Out, Chauncey In...

[Dave in Green]

There is absolutely nothing at all out of line with my statistical reference to Villanova if the complete statement is thoughtfully considered in full context.

As a matter of fact, I happen to have a lot of trust in my opinions. One reason I do is because I often verify my opinions by comparing them to other reference points. I don't trust any single reference point as absolute, whether it be only my own eyes, only someone else's eyes, or only empirical data. Every single reference point taken by itself can be deceptive. That doesn't mean that one shouldn't have any trust in any single reference point. Just don't trust anything absolutely without verifying.

When I verify my intuition and opinions against various other points of view, including but not exclusively limited to statistics, I often find much supporting evidence for my initial impressions. That tends to increase my confidence in my opinions. But it doesn't make me cocky, because I've seen people smarter than me consider large bodies of data and still make errors in judgment.

It takes more time and effort to research data than to just wing it with unsubstantiated opinion. But if one does not actively seek data to verify one's own opinions, one may eventually come to believe that they are always in the right because they have deliberately shut off access to any data that might have proved them wrong.

For all I know, it may be really comfortable living in a world like that. But it's not where I choose to live.

[Dave in Green]

..... Without any "stats", what would indicate a change in use of KD's typical deep rotation next year? .....

"Feelings."

[Darkwaters1122]

Dr Z

You criticised Dave in Green for making a "feeling" observation about the a shorter PT roster. Then in a subsequent post you criticise him for making decisions based on statistical facts. It appears you just disagree with Dave in Green. Which is OK...but let's just call it that.

About your observation about Jimmy and the possibility of him progressing faster had he gotten more minutes under a shorter PT roster....what do you think would have happened had he gotten less minutes under a shorter PT roster??

When your talent does not separate itself from one another, you will give more kids a shot and reward kids for practice time effort and success. I believe that happened last year. But I also believe KD will play 8-10 kids depending on the circumstances. Bob Huggins was the same way. He wanted kids to earn their time on the floor with maximum effort, intelligent decisions and taking care of the ball. That style will always present opportunities for kids who play with passion and effort. Do you like KD as the coach of the Zips??

KD's biggest problem was not having a true point guard. When they were recruited, it appeared there were at least 1-3 quality PGs but they did not prove to have that ability on the D1 level.

I am a stats guy. They seldom lie and personal feelings for a player will not effect the analysis. From my point of view, last year's team was not that good and had many weaknesses. We had no one who could score in traffic like Travis and Boyce, no true point guard, no shut down wing defender and no team leader. I don't see a lot of improvement in those areas for next year..but I hope I am wrong.

Dave in Green...keep up the statistical analysis. You seem to have a good feel for it ;-)

The following statistics are averages based on playing 40 minutes game. The #s are then comparable after adjusting for time played.

.....................Points.......Assists........T/O........Asst/TO.........Pct....

Hitchens____13.3______4.4_____2.7______1.6_______0.358

Roberts_____12.3______2.4_____1.6______1.5_______0.419

McNees_____12.0______3.6_____1.7______2.1_______0.371

Steward_____8.0______3.2_____4.1______0.8_______0.536

Sorry…none are that impressive.

[Dr Z]

You criticised Dave in Green for making a "feeling" observation about the a shorter PT roster. Then in a subsequent post you criticise him for making decisions based on statistical facts. It appears you just disagree with Dave in Green. Which is OK...but let's just call it that.

DIG attends more basketball games than I do, I would rather read his opinion about the team, that's what ZN is about. I can look up any stat I want on the internet, anybody can. It seems to me that DIG thinks he needs to "verify" everything with a number, like when your writing a history paper. I don't need/want that. That's all. I enjoy reading these kind of posts from DIG.

Statistics can be as much of an art as a science. "There are three kind of lies, lies, damn lies and statistics"

About your observation about Jimmy and the possibility of him progressing faster had he gotten more minutes under a shorter PT roster....what do you think would have happened had he gotten less minutes under a shorter PT roster??

Less progress?

Do you like KD as the coach of the Zips??

Excellent question. Could be a thread by itself (hmmmm...). I like him when we win, and question him when we lose. I wish we could beat an opponent that was equal or better than us. My favorite thing about him is his post game interviews (seems genuine). My least favorite thing about him is his offense. It often comes off as unentertaining, confusing and boring to me. I don't think I can give you a yes or no answer, how about if I say on a scale of one to ten, I'll give him a six. If it were a grade, I would say C+ to B-. Is our program better since he got here and Hipshire left? Eh. I wish a BJ reporter would ask him to grade himself one time, I would like to hear his answer. My answer would significantly change if he was somehow instrumental in the development of the new LBJ Arena.

[Dave in Green]

You criticised Dave in Green for making a "feeling" observation about the a shorter PT roster. Then in a subsequent post you criticise him for making decisions based on statistical facts. It appears you just disagree with Dave in Green. Which is OK...but let's just call it that.

DIG attends more basketball games than I do, I would rather read his opinion about the team, that's what ZN is about. I can look up any stat I want on the internet, anybody can. It seems to me that DIG thinks he needs to "verify" everything with a number, like when your writing a history paper. I don't need/want that. That's all. I enjoy reading these kind of posts from DIG.

Statistics can be as much of an art as a science. "There are three kind of lies, lies, damn lies and statistics"

Dr Z, I think this is a classic case of internet forum black and white escalation, where people with differing but reasonable positions use extremes to make points. Our disagreement on the useful balance of stats in formulating opinions has escalated to the point that you've adopted an anti-stats signature, and I've adopted an anti-black and white signature because I refuse to be moved from my shade of gray. In reality, I have many posts on ZN.O with no statistical references, and I can find examples of your postings where you do not totally diss stats.

So it's really not a black and white debate. It's my shade of gray vs. your shade of gray. And guess what, we're really not that far apart. We both agree that stats by themselves don't tell the whole story. We both agree that stats can be manipulated and misinterpreted. We both agree that when appropriately used, stats can be a useful measuring tool in conjunction with other tools to help create a more informed opinion.

You may think that I rely a little too much on stats, and I may think that you don't give them the full weight they deserve. But we're talking nuances here, not polar opposites. In any case, diversity is good. ZN.O will be a better place if we have a full range of opinions backed by various mixes of observation, intuition, and statistical analysis. So I don't plan to change, and I hope you don't, either. We may take occasional shots at each other's differences, but it's all in good humor and not to be taken too seriously.

[Districtballer]

There are rumblings that Humpty will be transferring to play at James Madison in the CAA. They have been recruiting a good number of players from Ohio (Devon Moore, Julius Wells and this year signed Rashawn Goins and James Millen from Cincinatti State) so this wouldn't be too much of a surprise.

[Deeustin89]

James Madison is one of many schools with their hat in the ring. there has been no commitment and is no favorite at this point. Humpty is taking his time and making sure he makes the right decision.

[Dave in Green]

I wish Humpty all the best in landing with a good mid-major team where he fits well and can show all he's got.

But you know that wherever he goes, there will be the usual group of naysayers posting on that team's fan forum what a dumb move it is take on an Akron "reject" with mediocre stats.

[Deeustin89]

Humpty made a visit to James Madison this week and was very impressed with the school and the players and coaches. They were missing their 2 best players last year due to injury and have two other key transfers coming in. They are looking like a viable option for Hump.

[RACER]

does anybody know when all the new players are eligble? i know b-ball is a little different than football.in football if you transfer you have to sit out a full year.do we get any of these guys after the break.

[Quickzips]

does anybody know when all the new players are eligble? i know b-ball is a little different than football.in football if you transfer you have to sit out a full year.do we get any of these guys after the break.

Abreu: Eligible Immediatly as an incoming freshman.

Diggs: Eligible Immediatly, although he is a transfer, his former school moved down a division exempting him from having to wait a year

Gilliam: Eligible Fall 2011, will have to sit out the 2010-'11 season

Egner: Eligible Immediatly as an incoming freshman.

Euton: Eligible Immediatly as an incoming freshman.

Green: Eligible Immediatly as an incoming freshman.

Harney: Will be eligible in the Fall of 2011 if he makes grades in the 2010-11 schoolyear. Greyshirting.

[RACER]

doesn't this leave us thin at pg/sg.does diggs play sg? i think our front line should have good depth

if one,or two of the freshman can get some pt.if mc neese,or roberts gets hurt we are in big trouble.

i think we have alott of options in the frontline.even bardo could play the center spot for 5-10 min.

nik can play center if needed.

[Dave in Green]

Diggs has been a guard his entire career. While UA lists him as a forward, all of his experience is at wing guard, so he'll easily be able to switch positions if needed. There's not a huge difference between wing forward and wing guard in the Zips style of play.

[Quickzips]

There's not a huge difference between wing forward and wing guard in the Zips style of play.

Really? Could have fooled me.

Sincerely,

Brett McClanahan

Seriously though, our Guard depth could be a significant issue this year. We are going to need Roberts to return to his 2008-09 form and we could really use a Conyers style breakout from McClanahan (or at least a little more solid play). Otherwise we are going to be really leaning on some newcomers in Abreu and Diggs, which I don't think is a path we want to rely on too much.

[Districtballer]

Humpty is indeed transferring to JMU.

[UA Fan]

I hope he enjoys Virginia...the Shenendoah area is very nice.

[zip37]

Tidewater is nice also, after the mosquito season.

[ZachTheZip]

http://www.chillicothegazette.com/article/.../SPORTS/7050311

Looks like the NCAA denied Humpty's hardship waiver. He'll redshirt this upcoming season.

[ZachTheZip]

. He will be eligible to play this season.