Zips Playing Time by Experience

[Dave in Green]

It wasn't supposed to be this way. The Zips were going to be bringing back a strong nucleus of seniors for the 2012-2013 season. Seniors Quincy Diggs and Chauncey Gilliam were both expected to average even more than last season's 25.5 and 17.1 minutes per game respectively. But first the team lost Q completely, and now Chauncey is losing more and more minutes to a continuing knee problem. Then there were the first three games lost by Tree and Nick, and suddenly the Zips were relying on freshmen a lot more than anyone had anticipated just a few months ago.

What has that done to upset the expected balance of veteran vs. rookie players? I couldn't really find that stat anywhere, so I decided to do my own breakdown of the percentage of minutes to date by freshmen, sophomores, juniors and seniors. One difference between my numbers and official NCAA numbers is that the NCAA formally recognizes Tree and Nick as juniors. But they're really sophomore level players who are expected to petition and receive a fifth season of eligibility from the NCAA based on their good academic records.

Now onto the basics. The Zips have played 24 40-minute games to date plus 2 5-minute overtime periods, or 24x40 + 2x5 = 970 total game minutes. Multiply that times 5 players and you get 4,850 player minutes. The minutes below don't come out exactly even due to partial minutes played, and I've also left out the few minutes played by the walk-ons. But the following is very close to 4,850 total player minutes:

Seniors = 32.1% (1,557 minutes total -- Zeke = 637, Walsh = 573, Chauncey = 347)

Juniors = 14.9% (722 minutes total -- Rico = 722)

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Upperclassmen = 47% of total playing time

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Sophomores = 25.8% (1,254 minutes total -- Tree = 565, Nick = 408, Deji = 281)

Freshmen = 27.2% (1,318 minutes -- Kretzer = 499, Forsythe = 313, McAdams = 264, Melo = 220, Justice = 22)

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Underclassmen = 53% of total playing time

Some interesting points here. While seniors have the highest percentage of PT, freshmen are not far behind in second, with sophomores a close third. When you break it down into upperclassmen and underclassmen, the more experienced players account for less than half of the total PT while the less experienced players account for more than half. This difference may become even more pronounced if Chauncey's knee continues to limit his PT.

The bottom line for the Zips is that freshmen and sophomores are playing a much bigger role on this team than anyone envisioned just a few months ago. The bad news is that less experience means more rookie mistakes and less well established team chemistry. The good news is that next season's team will start off with more players with more experience than if this season's PT was dominated by veterans.

The big question mark is whether the underclassmen can overcome their lack of experience to mesh with the upperclassmen to produce enough good team chemistry for the Zips to close out this season at a high level and finally make that post-season run we fans have all been dreaming about for so many years.

[Buckzip]

It wasn't supposed to be this way. The Zips were going to be bringing back a strong nucleus of seniors for the 2012-2013 season. Seniors Quincy Diggs and Chauncey Gilliam were both expected to average even more than last season's 25.5 and 17.1 minutes per game respectively. But first the team lost Q completely, and now Chauncey is losing more and more minutes to a continuing knee problem. Then there were the first three games lost by Tree and Nick, and suddenly the Zips were relying on freshmen a lot more than anyone had anticipated just a few months ago.

What has that done to upset the expected balance of veteran vs. rookie players? I couldn't really find that stat anywhere, so I decided to do my own breakdown of the percentage of minutes to date by freshmen, sophomores, juniors and seniors. One difference between my numbers and official NCAA numbers is that the NCAA formally recognizes Tree and Nick as juniors. But they're really sophomore level players who are expected to petition and receive a fifth season of eligibility from the NCAA based on their good academic records.

Now onto the basics. The Zips have played 24 40-minute games to date plus 2 5-minute overtime periods, or 24x40 + 2x5 = 970 total game minutes. Multiply that times 5 players and you get 4,850 player minutes. The minutes below don't come out exactly even due to partial minutes played, and I've also left out the few minutes played by the walk-ons. But the following is very close to 4,850 total player minutes:

Seniors = 32.1% (1,557 minutes total -- Zeke = 637, Walsh = 573, Chauncey = 347)

Juniors = 14.9% (722 minutes total -- Rico = 722)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Upperclassmen = 47% of total playing time

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sophomores = 25.8% (1,254 minutes total -- Tree = 565, Nick = 408, Deji = 281)

Freshmen = 27.2% (1,318 minutes -- Kretzer = 499, Forsythe = 313, McAdams = 264, Melo = 220, Justice = 22)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Underclassmen = 53% of total playing time

Some interesting points here. While seniors have the highest percentage of PT, freshmen are not far behind in second, with sophomores a close third. When you break it down into upperclassmen and underclassmen, the more experienced players account for less than half of the total PT while the less experienced players account for more than half. This difference may become even more pronounced if Chauncey's knee continues to limit his PT.

The bottom line for the Zips is that freshmen and sophomores are playing a much bigger role on this team than anyone envisioned just a few months ago. The bad news is that less experience means more rookie mistakes and less well established team chemistry. The good news is that next season's team will start off with more players with more experience than if this season's PT was dominated by veterans.

The big question mark is whether the underclassmen can overcome their lack of experience to mesh with the upperclassmen to produce enough good team chemistry for the Zips to close out this season at a high level and finally make that post-season run we fans have all been dreaming about for so many years.

Nice job gathering the information. This bodes very well for the future.

[Zip Watcher]

Nice post Dave.

[Captain Kangaroo]

Good research Dave.

No excuses in 2013. This is Zeke's senior year. This is the year we should win game(s) in the NCAA tourney.

[johnnyzip84]

There's no question the freshmen have been called on to deliver far more than anticipated. And kudos to the board members who accurately predicted that these 4 were very capable. We'd be in a world of hurt without them. At this point, only Melo has somewhat failed to live up to the expectations (still think a RS year NEXT season might be beneficial).

After this season, the obvious question related to this analysis is whether Tree and/or Harney get a 4th year of eligibility. If not, the data presented here effectively shifts dramatically from a slim majority (53%) of underclassmen minutes to a substantial majority (67%) of upperclassmen minutes.