2007 Football Overview & Predictions

[Captain Kangaroo]

Why the Zips Will Win the MAC East"The Zips win the MAC East? Are you nuts? The Zips will be lucky to break .500 this year. They lost to much talent. They're too unproven." That's the response I'd expect from the vast majority of those who follow Zips football.I'll disagree. Here's why:A Parallel WorldTo find a parallel to the 2006 Zips football season, one only needs to look as far as the 2006 Cleveland Indians. Hang with me here…Like the Zips of 2005, the 2005 Cleveland Indians were a young, hungry bunch of kids that no one really expected much from. Unbelievably, by the end of the season they were competing for a division championship. On Opening Day 2006, expectations were justifiably for both teams in their respective sports. And both fell flat on their face. They had no idea what is was like to play as a "favorite," and laid a massive egg. Learning from 2006, the 2007 Tribe …with essentially the same roster as 2006...has grown into a real contender. The same will happen with the 2007 Zips football team.While the 2006 Zips team underperformed, the individual players weren't terrible. The coaches weren't terrible. For a culmination of reasons…underestimating impact of lost senior leadership…getting the "best shot" from opponents who had previously taken the Zips lightly…injuries…luck...things just didn't "click." I think was all addressed in the off-season (except, of course, for "luck").Starting at Quarterback - A Battle?!Only once in the past decade have the Zips had a legitimate QB battle. Butchie Washington had a solid grip on his job for 3 years. Charlie Frye -- He was beaten out by Nick Sparks, but Nick's turf toe in game #1 removed any competition Frye would see for the following 3.95 seasons. And aside from a few token practices alongside Jabari, Luke had the QB position to himself for two years. QB Experience - Far from GreenThe QB, or QB's (…don't rule out a Tebow/Leak scenario for the Zips) that emerge this fall will be inexperienced, but they are all highly skilled and practice-seasoned. Carlton Jackson was a tremendous HS star in Florida -- a Rivals Top 50 player on the national scene who spurned Michigan State to attend Akron. Although he's only taken a handful of snaps, he's been through two spring drills and this will be his third summer camp in Akron. I read about his alleged bad attitude, but kids with bad attitudes are typically gone by the time their third year rolls around. If he's now enrolled for his 5th semester, with no eligibility issues, I think that speaks for his dedication to playing football for the Zips. The only scenario where I could see Jackson leaving the program is if he was so ticked off at losing the QB battle that he transferred to Tennessee State, who also offered him a scholarship to play QB (MSU wanted him as a safety). He wouldn't need to sit out if he went 1-AA. Again, I don't see that playing-out. Sean Hakes won back-to-back Texas state high school championships, garnering MVP in the latter game. He graduated high school a semester early so he could get a jump in preparing to be the Zips QB. He wants the job badly. Athletically he's as elusive as Jackson -- capable of making plays with both his arms and feet. And he's bulked up to around 215lbs. Chris Jacquemain would surprise me if he emerged as the starter. He's a solid-enough player, but we need a playmaker at QB, and I think this CJ, style-wise, is more along the lines of Luke. If he doesn't get the job, I think he's got the size and skills to move to WR…if he wanted to do so. Should he lose the derby and not want to switch positions…looking at all the young QBs on the Zips roster...it wouldn't be a shocker if Jacquemain decided to transfer to a lower division to play QB. Jordan Miller and Matt Rogers will be in the fold next season…and maybe another QB too. 5-6 QB's is a bit much for the Zips.Regardless of who takes the first snap of the 2007 season, the top back up(s) won't be relegated to a ball cap and clip board. They'll all see appreciable time. Unknown Doesn't Mean "Bad"OK - They're still a bunch of unknown commodities right? True…but so was Frye. And likewise was Butchie. Unknown doesn't automatically translate to "bad." In this instance, with the talent level so high, and the competition so fierce, I think it will fast-track our QB position to a pretty high level. This isn't like Frye's era, when an injury to Charlie meant Jonathan Gill or Michah Fahler behind center. Depth/talent + competition typically translates to good things at the QB position. It will be interesting to see how JD manages the situation. Practice Makes PerfectAnother aspect of the QB situation that will assist in expediting our QB's growth will be the practice intensity vs. our #1 defense. Overlooked in 2006 was some pretty stellar defensive play. Lack of a dominate pass rush was disappointing, and hurt us severely against mobile QB's like LaFevour and Edelman. But overall our defense was very good. Hakes/Jackson/Jacquemain will be throwing against the top LB's and DB's the MAC has to offer during practices this summer/fall. That makes the weekly game days vs. Buffalo/Temple/K.e.n.t much less daunting.The Loose Cannon FactorMore likely than not, the QB that emerges as the starter at Cleveland Browns Stadium this year will be the one that makes the fewest mistakes during August practices. This year's offense will be more run-oriented…more TE tosses (a big strength this season) and much less "wing-it-down-the-field-and-let-David Harvey (now Vince Hill)-run-underneath-it." OU won 9 games last season with a QB that would be 4th on our depth chart. And our 2007 defense will be better than OU's 2006 group. That should add up to a very successful season.Where's the Beef? Will the offensive line give any of these guys time to throw? Based upon history, I'd say "yes." Tim Crouch is gone. God love him…nice kid and a true student athlete. But he was abused on a weekly basis last year. Crouch's "open door policy" reduced Getsy to a gun-shy wreck by mid-season last year.As a unit, the incoming OL crew is unproven, but with a decent mix of experience and great HS accolades. The addition of Estrada helps immediately, and the other new guys are redshirts with a lot of side-by-side practice time under their belts. Wills and Alleman will be missed, but overall I think we'll be in better shape in the trenches in 2007. Kemme is legit all-MAC and Shepp is solid too. Holley hasn't played much to-date, but is a 5th year senior. Mike Ward is a tough kid too.Harvey and Lindsay are Gone - Boo Hoo HooMany Zips fans continue to wring their collective hands regarding the WR situation. I don't get it. When we lost Jake Schifno and Lavel Bailey, you heard the same thing…and Cherry, Irvin and Sparks emerged. Then we lost Cherry, Irvin and Sparks and everyone fretted…and Montgomery and Hixson capably filled in. We lost Motgomery and Hixson…and Harvey, Lindsay and Jabari stepped up. I learned in Physics class that nature abhors a vacuum. The same is true for the Zips WR position. With Harvey and Lindsay gone, the door is again open for the next generation of Zips wide receivers to step up. Jabari is poised to have a solid senior season. What MAC corner can match up with a 6' 4', 225lb WR? Alphonso Owen continues to draw raves. And Vince Hill has all the promise of Harvey, but with none of the baggage. If Al Groh fought tooth and nail to poach Vince for Akron, you know the kid is special. And UVA has very stringent academic standards…if Groh fought so hard to keep him, he certainly felt Vince could handle the academics too.Every year people fret over lost talent. And every year someone new seems to step in and get the job done. I wish Harvey would have gotten his act together, but "Wish in one hand, "K.e.n.t." in the other, and see which one fills up first." We won a MAC title without David Harvey, and so has every other MAC champ since the dawn of the conference. It can be done.The Running BacksDennis Kennedy is back, and allegedly healthy. We'll see what that translates to on the field. After two seasons I'm still leery that DK has the big-strike capability we need at the position. Unlike 2006 however, we should have some real depth at the position should he falter. Andre Walker is a serviceable back. Despite not playing RB since high school, he did a nice job in spot duty in 2006. He'll hit the holes a lot quicker now that he's got a season's worth of collegiate backfield experience under his belt. A name that continues to pop up in the RB mix is Alex Allen. Thanks to his own hard work, the knee he injured last summer appears to be rock-solid. He's expected to be near 100% for the season opener….maybe even better/stronger than before.A wild card is Bryan Williams. A very strong, very fast runner. He will be on the field somewhere in 2007. Still tough to tell if it will be RB or DB, but I'm guessing RB.The elusive true Freshman scat back Gary Pride is going to see some snaps this year too. And if Aaris Reed, a top 100 HS RB nationally in 2005, can get his act together it could be a banner rushing year for the Zips. The deep, talented 2007 Zips rushing attack will be far from the unspectacular dud we all witnessed in 2006. And that will take a lot of heat off our new QB's.The Schedule: "Cupcake City, BAY-BEE!"Another reason the Zips will be fine at the QB position in 2007 is the schedule. Joey Chestnut would only make it half way through our pile of cupcakes before surrendering to a bloated abdomen. The only 95% probable loss is the OSU game. And even then, OSU will be breaking in a new QB against the best linebacking corp and secondary in the MAC. If Beanie Wells pulls a hammy in the first quarter, look for Buckeye fans to be sweating well into the 4th quarter.Army is a terrible football team. They will be well-disciplined, methodical and strong. But the Zips athleticism should easily overcome it. I can't see JD losing to Army twice.Indiana - They're horrible. They had a "successful" (by their standards) Big 10 season in 2006, going 3-5. The previous three years they went 1-7. That said - a horrible team by Big10 standards still has the horses to be a Top 4 MAC team. I tend to think Indiana will win our game based upon how the beat CMU @ Mount Pleasant in 2006. They went on the road against one of the MAC's better teams and won. But it is certainly a game the Zips can win. And with Indiana's horrific defense, there should be points-a-plenty.We will not lose to a sorry K.e.n.t. team two years in a row. Once word spread that K.e.n.t. was mediocre last season, good ol' K.e.n.t. reverted back to their decades-old losing ways. Look for a big-time beatdown at the Rubber Bowl this fall. BTW -- The K.e.n.t. game will sell out. 25k guaranteed. That's a minimum 55k for the first two games. Not too shabby.UCONN - UCONN is terrible. They were 5-6 in 2005. They were 4-8 in 2006. They'll be bad again this year. In general, MAC teams win games like this -- We beat NC State last year. WMU beat Virginia. OU beat Illinois. When a decent MAC school, with a good defense and solid coaching staff plays a BCS doormat it bodes well for the MAC school. I will visit Storrs this fall to see the both the autumn leaves and coach Randy Edsall's face simultaneously turn red. Prepare another BCS "scalp" for the Zips belt.Western Michigan @ Kalamazoo -- Tough to expect the Zips to pull this one out. WMU is solid. Temple -- Cup cake.Buffalo -- Joey Chestnut gets some Hot Wings to go with his cupcakes. The Bulls always give us a tough game in Buffalo…and somehow we always win. I saw Turner Gill coach at the Rubber Bowl last year. Bizarre stuff. No way a clown like him beats the Zips.Bowling Green -- Urban Meyer's departure has led to Urban Decay. The young Zips begin hitting their stride here and easily handle the Falcons.OU -- Home team seems to win this annual match up, and the Zips are at home. The Bong Cats are going to come back to earth hard this year, BTW. No back-to-back 9-win seasons. Solich will be hitting the bottle hard again this fall.Miami -- Continuing a trend that started with Rothlisberger's departure for Pittsburgh, the once proud Red Hawks will dig themselves ever deeper into the MAC East basement. They are a bad football team, and their coach is headed along the post-MAC career path of Lee Owens, not that of his predecessors Randy Walker and Terry Hoeppner.CMU -- A tough game, but something should be on the line for both teams here. Edge to the home Zips in this 11am tilt as CMU completes the first year of breaking in their new coach.That puts the Zips and their new QB(s) @ 9-3…8-4 worst case. In the sorry MAC East, that will be good for a Championship berth in Detroit...assuming we find a reliable kicker.