tolbob

Bracketology trends as regular season winds down We've reached the final weekend of the regular season in men's college basketball, and conference tournaments are nearly finished on the women's side. It's only March 6, but the madness is already here. Few things this time of year are as important as momentum, and while some teams are improving their NCAA Tournament stock each time they step onto the court, others are slipping down seed lines and putting themselves in danger of missing the dance altogether. We took the temperature of 19 teams in our bracketology stock watch. Trending up: Florida, Michigan State, Saint Mary's, Ohio State, Georgia, Cincinnati, TCU, South Florida, Akron Trending down: SMU, BYU, NC State, Clemson, Iowa State, Kansas, Louisville, Iowa, Purdue, San Diego State You'll be hearing a lot of bubble talk over the next week. Anxiety levels are high for at-large teams teetering on the edge of the bracket. In addition to taking care of business, they also need to root against potential bid stealers. Our model projects the MAC as the likeliest conference to produce one of those thieves. David Cobb explains. Cobb: "It's Akron -- not Miami (Ohio) -- that our model views as the favorite to win the MAC Tournament. The Zips have won 15 straight league games since taking a loss to the RedHawks early in league play. Akron also rates better in predictive metrics than Miami, but Miami will have a strong at-large case if it fails to win the league tournament."

The refs let themplay for the most part. Very physical, a lot of bodies banging with no calls. Not sure who benefited most from this.

Is Pinky on Ozwmpic? Looks like he dropped 50 pounds.

I wish someone would explain how KenPom calculates LUCK.

Is there a streaming option to watch the game other than ESPN U?

Thanks MD, at least posting what KenPom has made public. But to use the gaussian method (whatever that is), there must be some input. It seems too me the input has to be more than just home and away final scores. My earlier guess that foul shooting, injuries, etc. are included may be wrong. In any event, I suppose the luck factor goes into the overall Kenpom rating, so it all washes out.

Correction, Akron now ranks 286th among the 365 teams rated by KenPom in luck.

Can someone explain the "Luck" calculation on KenPom? Zips are negative .268, which apparently means unluckier than average. I can think of a few factors that might affect the luck calculation: Opponents foul shooting percentage. Not much defense involved in foul shooting, so in a game like Yale when the opponent shoots much higher than their average, you had bad luck. Maybe the pressure of a tight game, etc. affects foul shooting, but mostly luck. 3 Point shooting also has a bit of luck involved. Most 3-point shots are not taken unless they are open shots. A good defense may force a few time clock beater shots, but not most. If a team shoots 56% on threes, when they typically shoot around 40%, some of that could be bad defense, but also could be just bad luck. Maybe playing against a team with an injured player is considered good luck. Is this a factor? Or playing without a player who is injured on your team is considered bad luck? Anything else? I do not subscribe to KenPom so maybe subscribers have the answer (or maybe it is just a secret algorithm).

Lost the three point shorting contest 48% to 28% to a team that shoots around 30% for the season. Zona's 3 pt defense better than MAC teams.

Won the 3 points shooting but lost the turnovers 18-11. that has to change.

Blocking foul on Lyles ridiculous. Don't they ever call charges??

Playing down to the competition

9 turnovers in the first 10 minutes of 2d half. UGH

Scott lazy in bounds pass. Get that corrected before Cleveland.

Gray called for two blocking fouls that should have been charges.