Fourth Down

[GP1]

This paper was written by a professor at UC Berkeley on fourth down decision making by NFL coaches over a three year period.New England's coach is a big fan of this paper. One more foot against Indy and he is not the goat he is today. The paper basically says coaches kick too much on fourth downs. I really don't care what the paper says, I'll take an easy three or change in field position over the risk. College is much different than the NFL also....I'd like to see the same study done on college football with a larger universe of teams than the NFL and a different flow to the game than NFL.

[Captain Kangaroo]

If you consistently shank 27yard rugby punts...I say go for it on 4th down.

[Ryno aka Menace]

Just curious how some of you feel, Colin Cowherd an ESPN analysts, talked about this very topic and he felt that there is a difference between going for it on your own 5 or your opponents 5. Which I am sure most of you feel. He says statistics can be misleading due to field position. I say hogwash, If i have Jerome Bettis as a fullback and statistics say 85% of the time I can get 2 yards, the stat is the stat doesn't' matter if I am trying to get 2 yards on grass, turf, dirt, my 5 or your 5, 2 yards is 2 yards. I bet Pete Carrol feel the same way I do after watching the way he coached against the Buckeyes. I had a high school coach who loved the wing T to death!! He never wanted to pass despite having one of the best recievers in the state. I asked him why he was so reluctant to pass, you know what his answer was. When you pass 3 things can happen and 2 of them are bad, interception, incomplete, or it is complete. When running the ball it is either positive yards or negative yards. My rebuttal was what about a fumble?! He laughed and said you won't run the ball for me fumbling and you could fumble after the catch so make that 3 bad and 1 positive.No let me say this I probably would have punted as well but it is obvious he had no faith in his defense. Peyton could easily drive 70 yards with 2 minutes on the clock and a time out. If he gets that 2 yards, he runs the clock out and wins.

[jaycevs]

We saw a similar situation last night. Dolphins up 7, at Carolina 28, 4th and 3. They could: kick a field goal to put the game away, but miss and give them good field position. Or you could try to pin them deep with a short punt. Or you could go for it and put the game away, being that they have no timeouts. The Dolphins went for it and missed, then survived a final Carolina rally. That's exactly what I would have done. Why, because Delhomme sucks and likely could make a mistake, and special teams are risky plays. A blocked kick could tie the game up, just like a punt return. However, Manning doesn't suck, and was heating up. The Pats defense needed a rest, and didn't get it when Brady threw incomplete on third down, so they ran hardly any time off the clock. They also had been running the ball well the whole game, so the short pass play was a good call to throw them off. I still think if he had a timeout left, there's a chance they get the 1st down with a review.

[Z.I.P.]

I had a high school coach who loved the wing T to death!! He never wanted to pass despite having one of the best recievers in the state. I asked him why he was so reluctant to pass, you know what his answer was. When you pass 3 things can happen and 2 of them are bad, interception, incomplete, or it is complete. When running the ball it is either positive yards or negative yards. My rebuttal was what about a fumble?! He laughed and said you won't run the ball for me fumbling and you could fumble after the catch so make that 3 bad and 1 positive.No let me say this I probably would have punted as well but it is obvious he had no faith in his defense. Peyton could easily drive 70 yards with 2 minutes on the clock and a time out. If he gets that 2 yards, he runs the clock out and wins.

June Jones when he coached Hawaii to the Sugar Bowl said "When you pass, three things can happen, and two of them are positive! Even when you have an incomplete pass, you learn from the defense, so that it helps you complete the pass the next time you run the same play."I think teams lose more often by failing to take calculated chances, than by being scared to take chances. That's true in more than football.

[ZachTheZip]

I like the "video game" offense. ALWAYS go for it on 4th down beyond the 50, ALWAYS go for the 2-pt conversion.When it comes to 2-pt conversions, if you're successful 51% or more of the time, you're going to be better off than kicking a PAT.