NFL Draft Trends

[Dave in Green]

Rather than continue the following OT football discussion in the basketball forum, I thought it would be best to give the subject its own thread. The following exchange is from the thread about Zeke and the NBA Draft (with Dr. Z's that referring to the NFL part of my first comment):

@Legend Of Zippy, good comparison with Roy Hibbert. One thing about professional sports is that teams tend to have their draft influenced by what's working today. That is, if a team wins the NFL championship with a running game, there's more temptation for teams to go for running backs in the next draft to try to replicate the winning team formula. In the NBA, championship performance by a team with a dominating center tends to make teams more likely to draft big centers in the next draft. So Hibbert's success against the Heat is generally good for Zeke.

Remind me again, when did that happen?

@Dr Z, just a random example of trends I've noticed in many decades of following the NFL and NBA drafts, and not intended to start an OT football discussion in this basketball thread.

There is no such trend in the NFL that pertains to running backs and Super Bowls and the following draft.

I think most will understand that the broad point I was making is that the draft priorities of pro teams are influenced by what is currently successful. So, for example, when teams with the best passing games are more successful, that influences other teams into drafting similar positional players to the most successful teams. The same happens in the NBA. If teams with big, dominating centers are having more success than small ball teams, more teams are influenced to prioritize drafting centers. But since Dr Z was more interested in debating the football side of it, anyone who's interested in joining the debate can weigh in right here. I'll start it off with links to a couple of articles:

Recent draft trends show running backs a less valued commodity by NFL teams

The Draft Shows That Running Backs Are No Longer Important To Most NFL Teams

[K92]

I guess I never really took note of the copycat nature of the NFL in the draft, but I sure have seen teams copy offensive and defensive schemes a lot.

[Ham]

If you watch your opponents QB run for 200 yds., you tend to rethink your position on running QB's.

[Dr Z]

The following exchange is from the thread about Zeke and the NBA Draft (with Dr. Z's that referring to the NFL part of my first comment)

The part of your post I responded to you didn't even include (below)?...and you still haven't answered the simple question. Hint: it's a one word answer that starts with the letter "N."

That is, if a team wins the NFL championship with a running game, there's more temptation for teams to go for running backs in the next draft to try to replicate the winning team formula.

Remind me again, when did that happen?

[Dave in Green]

That reminds me of a corny old riddle: Railroad crossing, look out for the cars, can you spell that without any r's?

Clever answer: t-h-a-t

@Dr Z, sometimes I lose sight of the fact that others haven't been around as long as I have. I should have gotten the clue when you originally quoted me but crossed out NFL championship and inserted Super Bowl. Maybe the Super Bowl represents the only NFL championship in your lifetime. But the NFL started crowning championship teams in 1920 and the first draft was held in 1936, several decades before the first Super Bowl. Do you honestly believe that no NFL championship won with a dominant ground game has ever influenced other teams' priorities in the following draft?

[legendofzippy]

The NFL is a copycat league, like all leagues. But why not, if something works and your team is no good, why not try it.

The west coast offense, zone blitz schemes, now the spread... these all started small then went across the league. Heck, even the run-and-shoot was popular for a while, and that was a complete mess.

Teams get into trouble when they don't just stick to something though. The Browns may be the best example of that.

[Dr Z]

Do you honestly believe that no NFL championship won with a dominant ground game has ever influenced other teams' priorities in the following draft?

Okay, no I don't believe it. Secondly, I fail to see that a draft in a 12 team football league SIXTY years ago is comparable to an NBA draft of today. It's not even relevant for a number of reasons too long to list.

PS Your original quote that I responded to specifically read "running back"

That is, if a team wins the NFL championship with a running game, there's more temptation for teams to go for running backs in the next draft to try to replicate the winning team formula.

...you started a new thread and you still haven't answered my original question!?!? It seemed very simple?

...when did that happen?

[Dave in Green]

@Dr Z, you seem to be obsessing over a sentence fragment that does not in itself express a complete thought. In the context of the original post, the examples given made sense for the point being made. The wording could have been more carefully crafted in a way that would have lessened the chance of someone latching onto a fragment and trying to make a big issue out of it. But who cares if everyone got the main point? If you have a point to make here, it's not yet clear to me.

[Dr Z]

[Dave in Green]

@Dr Z, I tried to give you a chance to clarify your question, because as posed it strikes me as pointless and irrelevant. The cartoon you posted was cute, but doesn't help me better understand your point. So I'll just have to do my best to give you as straight an answer as I can based on your limited input.

As best I understand your question about my out-of-context sentence fragment from all the various boldface and pretty colors, you appear to be asking me to cite a specific instance when a team went for running backs in the next draft to try to replicate the winning formula of an NFL championship team. The answer, of course, is that I cannot cite a specific instance. The reason I can't is because no one but the decision makers on NFL teams know for sure how much they may have changed their priorities in the next draft based on the success of other teams. They typically don't share that level of detail about internal business decisions with the public. Do I think that some NFL teams over the decades have been influenced by the success of other teams to change their draft priorities to move running backs ahead of other positional players? Absolutely. That was the point of my original statement.

[Dr Z]

The answer, of course, is that I cannot cite a specific instance.

Finally.

[Dave in Green]

That's it? All you wanted was for me to say that I had no definitive proof? And here I thought I was missing an important point that you were trying to make. If you challenged every statement like that posted on ZN.o the forums would be unreadable. It goes without saying that there is no definitive proof that it hasn't happened. What a waste of time.

[Dr Z]

What a waste of time.

Agreed. Simple questions only require simple answers."When did that happen?" is about as simple as I can make it. I thought you knew something I didn't, that's why I asked. I didn't think it required it's own thread.

[Dave in Green]

Oh well, anyone who decides they want to discuss the "plausible theory" of NFL team draft priorities being influenced by the success of other teams won't have to go to the effort of starting a new thread now in the appropriate forum. Maybe someone will even stumble across definitive proof some day.

[Dave in Green]

@Dr Z (and anyone else reading this), please excuse my personal compulsion to do postmortems on misunderstandings in the interests of self-improvement. I'm kicking myself for misunderstanding the nature of your question. Had the question been "do you have any hard data to back up that statement," I would have immediately gotten the point. What really threw me was the following:

...and you still haven't answered the simple question. Hint: it's a one word answer that starts with the letter "N."

Remind me again, when did that happen?

I interpreted the "N" word as "never," and that made no sense at all to me. In retrospect I should have been more specific in questioning what you were looking for.

Apologies to anyone who found this discussion disruptive. To those who found it amusing and entertaining, consider it a free benefit of visiting ZN.o.