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2014 MAC Tournament Watch


UAZip0510

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When you look at the tournament in this light, it potentially makes for an exciting weekend in Cleveland. For the first time in a while, there are a lot of teams that could win the league with five and maybe six if things go right for EMU.

Could this be the year that two "dark horses" make the finals?

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When you look at the tournament in this light, it potentially makes for an exciting weekend in Cleveland. For the first time in a while, there are a lot of teams that could win the league with five and maybe six if things go right for EMU.

Could this be the year that two "dark horses" make the finals?

Remember, the years we beat Buffalo and Ken+ in the title game, I think we were a #6 and #5 those two years. So, we should know better than anyone that anything can happen.

And then there's the flip side to that scenario. We've been one of the top seeds before, and ended up with nothing. That's why resting all of your hopes on the MAC tournament is such a big mistake.

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Remember, the years we beat Buffalo and Ken+ in the title game, I think we were a #6 and #5 those two years. So, we should know better than anyone that anything can happen.

And then there's the flip side to that scenario. We've been one of the top seeds before, and ended up with nothing. That's why resting all of your hopes on the MAC tournament is such a big mistake.

The difference between now and then is that now there are double and triple byes, back then there was one bye at most. I doubt we'll see anybody lower than a 6 seed stand much of a chance in any year with the current format. It is a shame too, it was truly the greatest conference tournament around when schools could have realistic expectations about coming from way back (Ohio was a 9 seed a couple years ago) in the pack and make the title game.

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The difference between now and then is that now there are double and triple byes, back then there was one bye at most. I doubt we'll see anybody lower than a 6 seed stand much of a chance in any year with the current format. It is a shame too, it was truly the greatest conference tournament around when schools could have realistic expectations about coming from way back (Ohio was a 9 seed a couple years ago) in the pack and make the title game.

Plus the days off were more balanced. Previously, missing out on a bye meant a game Monday then Quarter final with the byes on Thursday. Now its a game Monday, travel Tuesday, game Wednesday before playing the first teams with byes on Thursday, then another rested team on Friday. And that's just to get to the championship. I'd be surprised if a team seeded below 4 wins.

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While it may not be quite as exciting (if you consider watching a 9-seed in the Championship game exciting), the current format is designed to protect the best teams from the regular season and give them the best shot of earning the NCAA bid. The better the team is from the MAC in the NCAA tournament, the better chance they could win in the tournament and earn the league money.

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While it may not be quite as exciting (if you consider watching a 9-seed in the Championship game exciting), the current format is designed to protect the best teams from the regular season and give them the best shot of earning the NCAA bid. The better the team is from the MAC in the NCAA tournament, the better chance they could win in the tournament and earn the league money.

I know and I get that but I think it also costs those good teams that do win the tourney title, or even lose the championship game, an extra win or two on their record. That can make a difference when choosing between a couple of teams for that last at-large bid or two. If I were Toledo this year I'd want the easiest path to the title of course but I'd rather do it in a format where everybody plays more than two games just to enhance that record a little more just in case the conference title doesn't happen.

The other question is.. Is it best for the MAC to be represented by the team that was good most of the season but tailed off toward the end yet still found a way to squeak out two tourney wins or for them to be represented by a team that got really hot at the end and was able to win the title when the format was more equal to all participants? The year Ohio was a #9 seed in the MAC, didn't they also win in the NCAAs?

I understand both sides of the argument and neither is wrong. I just prefer for a conference like the MAC which has the reputation of being able to pull off the big upset to have a tourney format that would also afford an equal chance for upsets to happen within its own ranks.

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We likely won't have an offensive explosion like that again this year, and I sure as heck hope we won't have anything close to a defensive implosion like that again this year.

But, if we do play offense like that from here on out, and pick up the defense, as you suggest, we'd destroy our remaining opponents.

Just not gonna happen.

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It's really looking like Akron might have to run the table now to snag a top two seed. Western Michigan and Toledo play each other so one will end up with four losses, but both own the tiebreaker against UA.

That quite possibly may be the case. Toledo and Western do both have to play EMU yet though, albeit at home for both of them. I can still see the Zips winning the MAC as the 4 seed depending on who falls on which half of the bracket. I just can't see it happening if seeded fifth or worse because it is stacked so that you'd have to win 5 games to do it from the 5th spot but only three games from the 4th. If two teams end up tied for 4th that will be one heck of an important tiebreaker.

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That quite possibly may be the case. Toledo and Western do both have to play EMU yet though, albeit at home for both of them.

They both play Eastern, and they also have to play EACH OTHER, so either Toledo or Western is already guaranteed one more loss, at a minimum. That would still leave the #2 spot well within reach.

Meanwhile, we have 4 out of 5 games at home. We couldn't ask for more in this situation.

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By now we know that the Zips are perfectly capable of losing any of their remaining games. Tomorrow's OU game will be especially challenging with the big question marks hanging over Nick, Reggie and Jake. It's highly unlikely that Reggie will make a miraculous recovery from mono, Elton's last report was that Jake is probably out for at least one game and still no official word on when Nick will be back. The Zips at least got 3/4 of a game from Jake in Buffalo. But going a whole game against OU with all those players out would be brutal.

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It's highly unlikely that Reggie will make a miraculous recovery from mono

It will likely be "Miraculous" no matter when he returns this season. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but my significant other is a Practitioner, and she says typically these cases are a 6 week process. And that's for normal functioning, not to compete in a college basketball game. So, she was pretty stunned that they originally reported a projected 2-3 week absence. We don't know any more details about his condition, of course, but I can only imagine how minimal his contribution might be if he does return from something like that before the end of the season.

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I think the original report on Reggie was "at least" 2-3 weeks. My understanding of mono is that the severity varies from individual to individual, and recovery can vary from weeks to months. In severe cases the spleen can swell to the point that it bursts, which can create a medical emergency. But in about half of mono cases, the spleen doesn't swell at all. I had mono in college and was really wiped out for a couple of weeks, but bounced back pretty quickly. We can only hope that Reggie has the mildest possible version. I'm sure he's getting great medical advice.

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I'm told that Coach Dambrot said before tonight's game that Reggie is not showing progress in fighting off the mono symptoms, and is all but certainly done for the season. It's also pretty certain that Jake will miss the next couple of games. So that leaves Nick as the only one with a chance of returning to the floor for the Miami and Bowling Green games. Based on what I saw tonight, the Zips would not have an easy time at Miami or against BG at the JAR without additional offensive firepower. So everyone keep your fingers crossed that Nick rejoins the team Monday and Jake returns for the Buffalo game. Even if the Zips win their final 4 conference games, they're going to need help to sneak into a top 4 seed.

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The ship has sailed on winning the regular season title. With Toledo and Western Michigan both holding tie-breakers against Akron, they'd need to BOTH lose three out of the last four AND Akron would have to win out. That's just not happening.

With that said, a #3 or a #4 seed is certainly possible.

Buffalo lost to both OU and BG the first time around with a close game at home against Akron.

Ohio lost to BG at home earlier in the season and played close games against Miami, Buffalo, and Can't State.

Akron won close matchups against BG and Miami and lost close ones to both Buffalo and Can't State.

To say this race is wide open might be an understatement.

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There's 3 teams fighting for 2 spots. And if OU beats Buffalo at home on Wednesday, all 3 of us are even again.

So, as Dave might say, we'd have a 66% chance of getting the #3 or #4 spot in the MAC tourney by Wednesday night.

And with 3 games at home to close things out, we probably would have an edge. We just need more players back asap.

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