MAC Predictions - 2014

[johnnyzip84]

Here is a very early prediction from USA Today. The Zips are picked 4th in the East. I think we'll do better.

[Dr Z]

Nice article. Who could argue the following statement?

"This year's East sleeper is likely Akron, which has grown from one win in coach Terry Bowden's debut to 5-7 a year ago. The next logical step, of course, is a push to postseason eligibility. Easier said than done."

[johnnyzip84]

Nice article. Who could argue the following statement?

"This year's East sleeper is likely Akron, which has grown from one win in coach Terry Bowden's debut to 5-7 a year ago. The next logical step, of course, is a push to postseason eligibility. Easier said than done."

I think that sums our situation up pretty well. I thought the prediction for Buffalo (2nd in MAC East) was pretty far off though.

[johnnyzip84]

Suffice to say ESPN, Alok Pattani to be specific, isn't too impressed at this juncture. They have K.E.N.T. at #98 and the Zips at #115. NFW.

[ZachTheZip]

That's much more of a name-value ranking than a power ranking.

No way that a 5-7 team that returns almost every skill player is one of the 10 worst teams in the country.

[K92]

Here is a very early prediction for the rest of the MAC East

[GoZips]

Two early season "rags" hit the news stands Friday.

The Sporting News picks the Zips to finish fourth in the MAC East.

Lindy's is some what kinder and more realistic; picking Akron second.

If ESPN picked the Zips as the #115 team, they have lost all sense of reality.

[Balsy]

Yet people buy this crap-o-la

[GP1]

Every year we see articles such as this in well known national publications. I typically toss them in to the category of "Lazy Journalism". They involve taking the prior year's standings and moving them to the following year and moving most of the teams up or down a peg in the standings. Then they hit the easy topics, which are: Who is the best team in the league? Who are the new coaches? Where did the old coaches go? This one has the added lazy bonus of comments about a well known coach on a team and then say something about the future of that team without really knowing a single player on the team. I don't begrudge these publications for doing this. It is what it is and they are paying writers who have to provide content so this is what we get.

This year I'm selling the MAC and buying the Zips. After our usual 1-3 start, we will be able to gain some confidence and momentum against EMU and Miami and I think that will translate into a win in Athens (I think OU's program is in decline and we saw that the second half of last year where they got hammered in 4 of their last 5 games and only were able to put a beating on a hapless UMASS team late in the season). Throw in wins against Can't State and UMASS and we have six wins minimum. The Bowen name gets us into a bowl in Alabama. I can also see the Zips beating BG at home if they can capitalize on their mid season confidence.

Will it be easy? No, but the Zips now have the players and coaching to do better than just winning against teams they should win against and should be able to produce an "upset" or two along the way.

This topic really makes me wish it was football season. Can't wait!

[skip-zip]

I have to look at it this way. Where's the real pressure for this team and coaching staff?

Was it digging themselves out of the gutter to become competitive?

Or will it be performing even better with elevated expectations?

Would any of us be talking about bowl games if we were maybe 2-10 last year instead of 5-7?

I think that the expectation to get better after already taking a big leap will be an immense challenge for these guys this year.

So, here's the real question:

For the fans, if we are 5-7 again this year, or anything short of that, will people be disappointed? Will they see it as the new standard, and claim failure if it is not exceeded? Or, will it be a very satisfied "at least we aren't a 1-11 football team anymore" mentality?

[ZachTheZip]

Something to remember about last year is that we only won a single game by more than seven points. Three of our wins were less than a FG away from being a loss. At the same time, three of our losses were by a TD or less.

The season could have swung dramatically in either direction, but remained pretty much exactly in the middle of it all. There's the chance that the team has improved talent and stats but has another 5-win season because of the way the ball bounces. It's crazy that 8 of our games were decided by an average of 4.625 points.

The offense needs to become much more efficient. The completion percentages were awful, and the running game never really got going.

[jupitertoo]

Every year we see articles such as this in well known national publications. I typically toss them in to the category of "Lazy Journalism". They involve taking the prior year's standings and moving them to the following year and moving most of the teams up or down a peg in the standings. Then they hit the easy topics, which are: Who is the best team in the league? Who are the new coaches? Where did the old coaches go? This one has the added lazy bonus of comments about a well known coach on a team and then say something about the future of that team without really knowing a single player on the team. I don't begrudge these publications for doing this. It is what it is and they are paying writers who have to provide content so this is what we get.

This year I'm selling the MAC and buying the Zips. After our usual 1-3 start, we will be able to gain some confidence and momentum against EMU and Miami and I think that will translate into a win in Athens (I think OU's program is in decline and we saw that the second half of last year where they got hammered in 4 of their last 5 games and only were able to put a beating on a hapless UMASS team late in the season). Throw in wins against Can't State and UMASS and we have six wins minimum. The Bowen name gets us into a bowl in Alabama. I can also see the Zips beating BG at home if they can capitalize on their mid season confidence.

Will it be easy? No, but the Zips now have the players and coaching to do better than just winning against teams they should win against and should be able to produce an "upset" or two along the way.

This topic really makes me wish it was football season. Can't wait!

Losing half your starters to injury will do that to you. OU will be a very different team...strong defensively rather than offensively. As to their program being in decline, they have actually had their best recruiting years ever in each of the past two years. The university finally completed an indoor facility and they are planning an end zone building and additional seating at Peden. I think they will be above average to very good for the foreseeable future. Akron may also be very good, but I'm worried about Bowden bailing if he wins 8 or 9 this year.

[skip-zip]

It's crazy that 8 of our games were decided by an average of 4.625 points.

The offense needs to become much more efficient. The completion percentages were awful, and the running game never really got going.

I bring this up all the time. Our offense was horrible in the Ken+ game and the UMass game at the end of the season. And what I saw in the spring didn't help my opinion.

Our defense gets all the credit for at least 2 of those wins last year.

[johnnyzip84]

It's a little amusing to me that if you google "Alok Pattani" you'll find that he was hired by the network as an "Analytics Specialist". Of course he has a degree in Mathematics (from Boston U) specializing in Statistics. I suppose guys like Sagarin started all of this, but if I had known 30 years ago that you could actually have a CAREER doing this sort of thing I might have jumped all over it. Getting back to his specifics rankings, I'd be curious to know what stats he is using as input that would have the Zips at #115. My suspicion is that he may have a dampening feature in his algorithm that makes it difficult to ascend or descend rapidly, meaning those 1-11 seasons may still be weighing down the Zips ranking.

The OU discussion is interesting to me for two reasons. First, there is the healthy rivalry that has developed between Akron and OU. Second, I think this is a crossroads year for Solich. I don't doubt that injuries were a major factor in their disappointing season last year. And make no mistake, with TT and a strong supporting cast returning for his senior season, 2013 was a pretty big disappointment for OU football. I don't care what the details are, if 2014 provides another fade down the stretch, this COULD be the beginning of the end for Frank. That's not necessarily a bad think for the Bobcats (see NIU and Joe Novak) however. I agree with GP1 that a win in Athens could easily occur provided the Zips take care of business at home.

[ZachTheZip]

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/95202/fsu-leads-preseason-fpi

According to this, they use stats and information from several previous years, with the most recent year being more heavily weighted. Looking back farther than last season would hurt the Zips tremendously in these rankings compared to most teams. They also factor in recruiting rankings, which hurts the Zips because Bowden signs more late recruits than most and they don't get counted in the rankings which are finalized on signing day.

[johnnyzip84]

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/95202/fsu-leads-preseason-fpi

According to this, they use stats and information from several previous years, with the most recent year being more heavily weighted. Looking back farther than last season would hurt the Zips tremendously in these rankings compared to most teams. They also factor in recruiting rankings, which hurts the Zips because Bowden signs more late recruits than most and they don't get counted in the rankings which are finalized on signing day.

Thanks for confirming my suspicion

[GP1]

I have to look at it this way. Where's the real pressure for this team and coaching staff?I'd like to think they are putting it on themselves. Bowden is a real college football coach and knows what buttons to push throughout the program. Bowden didn't move from a nice warm weather state to Akron, OH to coach a team to an annual 5-7 record. He is at Akron to win and he has guys working for him who have been at successful programs and are not at Akron for the millions of things to do during the off season.

Would any of us be talking about bowl games if we were maybe 2-10 last year instead of 5-7?No, but since that didn't happen and they went 5-7, we should expect continued improvement of the program.

I think that the expectation to get better after already taking a big leap will be an immense challenge for these guys this year. Why? Some of these guys are going into their third season. If not now, when? Many of them are between the ages of 21 and 23. They aren't little kids. They are grown men and development should be expected. Are they not supposed to take that leap forward until they have 12 games remaining in their careers?

So, here's the real question:

For the fans, if we are 5-7 again this year, or anything short of that, will people be disappointed? Will they see it as the new standard, and claim failure if it is not exceeded? Or, will it be a very satisfied "at least we aren't a 1-11 football team anymore" mentality? 5-7 with key players remaining healthy for the entire season would be a huge disappointment. It would be s a sign of a failed season and demands for much better the following season should be expressed by the fan base.

[GP1]

Losing half your starters to injury will do that to you. OU will be a very different team...strong defensively rather than offensively. As to their program being in decline, they have actually had their best recruiting years ever in each of the past two years. The university finally completed an indoor facility and they are planning an end zone building and additional seating at Peden. I think they will be above average to very good for the foreseeable future. Akron may also be very good, but I'm worried about Bowden bailing if he wins 8 or 9 this year.

That settles it. They built indoor practice facilities and are expanding their stadium. Everywhere this happens, teams get more succes..... What? We went 1-11 two years into a new stadium? Never mind.....

Injuries or not, I'm still not buying OU football. Every time I watch a game and see Solich slouching around the sidelines, I'm reminded of having to watch Jim Grobe slouch around the sidelines for Wake for far too long. At the end of last season, OU was a team without any energy. That's hard to get back. It's even harder to get back with a coach who has little energy.

[Dave in Green]

The nice thing about being under-respected in preseason rankings is that when you outperform expectations the underdog factor comes into play. The public always likes a feel-good story about an underdog becoming successful, which is why the media is always on the lookout for those kind of stories. So ESPN is doing the Zips a favor by ranking them #115. Greatly exceeding those lowly expectations might earn the Zips a national story or two.

[Balsy]

I don't like the assumption that the Zips are going to be our "regular 1-3" in the OOC portion of the schedule...or that we're going to be scraping out wins in the conference slate. I think we've got a very favorable schedule for this point in our program; Bowden's got to know/see that as well. We cannot forget the power and momentum of winning.

For OCC we've got Howard (to start off the season with W), than we've got Penn State who's previous week will have been in London, England playing UCF under heavy national attention...who's got new head coach James Franklin...which is a program that feeling the effects of a bowl-ban...Penn State is more of a ripe target than our previous two-seasons with Bowden at the helm against "top-notch national" programs, we should expect a masterful down to the wire performance.

Marshall and Pitt finish up the OCC. These two teams I would put as competition that is < UCF and ULL from last season. Marshall should be very tough, while Pitt will be breaking in a new QB.
1-3 in OCC is frankly unacceptable to me at this point. There's most definitely 2 if not 3 wins (if we can pull an upset) in this OCC schedule. If this coaching staff is as good as everyone seems to think it is...that is good enough for the head coach to be sniped by another team, 2 wins or bust in the OCC.

Everytime this conversation comes up I always think back to one of the first speeches I remember Bowden giving on how to build a winning program: You start by losing big (2012). Then you start losing by a little (2012/2013) than you move to winning by a little(2013/2014?); and then at that point you're winning by a lot.

[K92]

Balsy,

I agree there is no team as good as the 2013 Knights on this year's schedule, but I think Penn State is better than Michigan and I think Marshall is better than Louisiana. Going to Pitt and winning is not going to be easy, new QB or not. I think the NC schedule is very difficult. Too difficult.

[skip-zip]

I don't like the assumption that the Zips are going to be our "regular 1-3" in the OOC portion of the schedule.

Here's what I think is reasonable.

You beat the team you are supposed to beat, and then you hope for one great performance out of the other 3 games so you can go 2-2 in OOC.

Michigan nearly became that 2nd win last year, and if we can pull out a performance like that this year, then it's possible again. We can all speculate as to which of those remaining games is the most winnable, but the problem is that you just never know which of the 3 games could bring out that great performance.

[Buckzip]

I don't like the assumption that the Zips are going to be our "regular 1-3" in the OOC portion of the schedule...or that we're going to be scraping out wins in the conference slate. I think we've got a very favorable schedule for this point in our program; Bowden's got to know/see that as well. We cannot forget the power and momentum of winning.

For OCC we've got Howard (to start off the season with W), than we've got Penn State who's previous week will have been in London, England playing UCF under heavy national attention...who's got new head coach James Franklin...which is a program that feeling the effects of a bowl-ban...Penn State is more of a ripe target than our previous two-seasons with Bowden at the helm against "top-notch national" programs, we should expect a masterful down to the wire performance.

Marshall and Pitt finish up the OCC. These two teams I would put as competition that is < UCF and ULL from last season. Marshall should be very tough, while Pitt will be breaking in a new QB.

1-3 in OCC is frankly unacceptable to me at this point. There's most definitely 2 if not 3 wins (if we can pull an upset) in this OCC schedule. If this coaching staff is as good as everyone seems to think it is...that is good enough for the head coach to be sniped by another team, 2 wins or bust in the OCC.

Everytime this conversation comes up I always think back to one of the first speeches I remember Bowden giving on how to build a winning program: You start by losing big (2012). Then you start losing by a little (2012/2013) than you move to winning by a little(2013/2014?); and then at that point you're winning by a lot.

True PSU is feeling the pain of the bowl ban. However, Franklin has brought a renewed sense of energy and optimism to that program. They are knocking it out of the ball park in recruiting right now. Sure, that that doesn't matter for this next season, but the confidence is returning in Happy Valley and their stud QB has a year under his belt now too.

[jupitertoo]

That settles it. They built indoor practice facilities and are expanding their stadium. Everywhere this happens, teams get more succes..... What? We went 1-11 two years into a new stadium? Never mind.....

Injuries or not, I'm still not buying OU football. Every time I watch a game and see Solich slouching around the sidelines, I'm reminded of having to watch Jim Grobe slouch around the sidelines for Wake for far too long. At the end of last season, OU was a team without any energy. That's hard to get back. It's even harder to get back with a coach who has little energy.

You conveniently skipped the point, which is that the commitment to facilities has helped them significantly improve their recruiting in each of the past two years. As for Solich having no energy, you couldn't be more wrong. He's a heck of a lot more vibrant and physically fit than much younger coaches, certainly including Mr. Bowden. Scoreboard - 42-3 last year?

[GP1]

You conveniently skipped the point, which is that the commitment to facilities has helped them significantly improve their recruiting in each of the past two years. As for Solich having no energy, you couldn't be more wrong. He's a heck of a lot more vibrant and physically fit than much younger coaches, certainly including Mr. Bowden. Scoreboard - 42-3 last year?

I think their winning has contributed to their ability to bring in good players. I've never been one to believe facilities attract good players. Facilities are secondary to winning. Good players want to win regardless of facilities. My best piece of evidence would be the success of our basketball team in recent years playing in a poor arena.

Solich is a mope.