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Penn State Prognostication


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The first time the Zips played Penn State was 1999. Butchie Washington was in his prime, Brandon Payne was looking All-MAC, Schfino and Baily were the top two WR’s in team history, Rache Culler was absolutely flattening anyone that got in his way…Dwight Smith was at the top of his game…yes, us Zips fans went into that game feeling pretty good about ourselves. The game began 14-3 Penn State, but the Zips played tough. On a subsequent Penn State offensive possession the Zips recovered a fumble, drove down the field and scored on a Brandon Payne TD. The crowd was silent. Payne put his finger up to his lips as he strutted through the endzone, “shhhhhhhhhh.”The Zips held again, forcing a Penn State punt. The 100,000 Nittany Lions fans were mortified. Sensing the moment, Coach Lee Owens figured it would be a swell time to switch QBs. In came Greg Gromek…back came two INT’s for touchdowns in what seemed like a 23 second span. Just like that the rout was on, and a 70-24 beatdown ensued.Moving ahead to 2004, the Zips faced an improved Penn State squad. But the Zips had a new coach, Charlie Frye and hope. Unfortunately we still had a Lee Owens-schooled defense and an offense running an entirely new scheme. The cutback run killed the Zips that day…every time a Penn State running back cut back, the over pursuing Zips got smoked for 20+ yards. The 49-14 score was in no way indicative of the beating. Jabari had a nice game…that’s about the only positive I took out of that one.What will happen in 2006? Will history repeat itself, or can the Zips make history?I think a lot will depend upon how the Zips staff approaches the game offensively. And, how well the defense competes. Will the staff pace itself for the long, twelve game season and limit Kennedy and Getsy’s reps whenever possible? My gut feeling is “no.” Barring injury I have to believe these guys stay on the field as long as the Zips have a reasonable shot at winning. Getsy took 98% of the snaps in 2006 and Biggs took 85% of the carries, so why would the breakdown be any different in 2006?We start senior Luke Getsy against a defense that’s breaking in four new players in the secondary. We also have the best OL depth we’ve had in some time, which bodes well for Luke’s health. Penn State’s Morelli has completed three passes in his college career, and will be facing a Zips secondary that as seasoned as it has ever been. He’ll be facing the best LB corp the Zips have had since Clark, Hilk and Motten. And the starting Zips DL will be as big as many of the Big10 teams Penn State will face this season…just not as deep.I see the game being highly competitive in the 1st half. Luke will use his TE’s to burn the blitzing PSU linebackers. Kennedy will be money in the red zone. Jabari will be double-teamed all day long. Look for Johnny Long to have a big day.The second half is perennially where Big 10 teams pull away from upper-tier MAC teams. If the Zips second stringers can fill in adequately for the starters, the Zips have an excellent chance to keep things close into the 4th quarter. The special teamers MUST come through. If the FG kicker blows extra points or FG’s…or the punter shanks a few…we can’t overcome it. We need these guys to be rock solid. I don’t see us hurting ourselves with penalties. We have too much experience. I do worry a bit about turnovers. We can live with one…maybe two turnovers. That’s it. It will be on our young RB’s, WR’s and special teamers to take care of the ball. The need to step up.We also need help from Penn State. And I think we’ll get it. I’m banking on good pressure from the Zips DL and LB’s to cause two Morelli INT’s. My guess: Penn State 42 Akron 34. I think our defense will get its share of stops, but the DL will tire in the 4th. I think our offense will sustain its share of drives to keep the D fresh…but only for so long. If the Zips are to have a chance to win, we need Morelli to run for his life. Some player…some scheme…something needs to emerge from out of the blue on September 2nd that of which Paterno has no answer. We need a Jason Taylor-esque performance vs. Va Tech in 1996 from someone. We need a Bobby Hendry-like performance vs. Wisconsin in 2002 from a RB that nets 100+ yards. We need a Lavel Bailey-esque WR emergence like Lavel’s freshman breakout game vs. Nebraska in 1997. We need an unsung guy like a Ricky Coble 2001 vs Ohio State who returned an INT 90 yards for a TD. We need Luke to play with the late-game calm of Charlie Frye vs. Marshall in 2003. We need a Dwight Smith-level performance in the secondary, like his game vs. Michael Vick and Va Tech in 2000.Over the last 10 years I have seem a lot of great individual performances by Zips players in games against Top 25 teams. In the end, we’ve always lost by a couple TD’s. If we’re going to pull off a win, we need a total team effort, with some unknown new stars to emerge, coupled with some outstanding performances on both sides of the ball, and a little luck. If some youngsters step up big time, I reserve the right to change my prediction. AKRON 42 Penn State 34.

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I was at PSU 2 years ago. I was so cocky before the game and numb during and after with the whipping that we took. So what do I know? If Penn State is a legitimate top 15-25 team in the country and Akron is as good as I think, MAC contender, this game should be within 2 TDs either way. NO way, should we get blown out. CK gave a great analysis of what needs to be done. Special teams is my worry and where I see the difference. We can't have a 12 play 75 yard drive end in a missed FG or blocked FG. We can't continually always start on our 20 and they on their 35. 1st team is good enough to play with them. Youngsters need to step up. Beating Penn State means so much for Akron and the program. Beat Penn State, how long before the stadium announcement comes soon after? How long before they announce they JD contract extension? How long before we are in the top 25? Beat Penn State, and the Beacon will have to move their AP wire story of the game to page 3 from page 5. My dream on Sunday sees a front page headline of How about the MAC? Akron and NIU shock Big 10 giants.This is the first time ever where our DLine should be able to go toe to toe with them. We need Jermaine back. We need Nate to play the game of his life. We need a lead in the 4th quarter and with the new rules, just milk the clock. If PSU plays lights out, we will lose. If we play lights out and PSU plays fair, we will win. My head says we lose by 10 with PSU pulling away. My heart says Zips win by a TD. As always, I am going with my heart, Akron 31-21.

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the 2004 game was pretty ugly. our defense was playing everything.i do think our defense especially the d-line should be improved over 2004.everbody said how good our d was last year.what concerns me is the last two games our defense got run over by niu,and memphis. hopefully pennstate will not be able to just line up ,and run the ball.i think our offense should be able to score some points. if luke has time i think well surprise them on what our offense can do. i guess this game will be a good indicator how far this program has come in two years under jd.

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When we played NIU and Memphis, we played against two of the most elite running games in the country. They ran over everybody they played. There is no shame in letting two of the top 5 RBs in the nation rack up yards. They wouldn't be considered the best if they weren't able to do that. Penn State does not have such an elite back. Their running game is good, but not the best. I think that playing against Wolfe and Williams last year will give the Akron D some extremely valueable experience. They should be able to stop anyone this year.Akron's offense will be able to score, but it will be difficult to gain too much of a lead. What really concerns me is Akron's depth. We need a LOT of people to step up and carry this team through the fourth quarter. Special teams are a bit of a concern, but I think our kicking team will be as good as ever. It is our punt return unit that will give us trouble.

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I appreciate you're fans of the Zips but if you really think Memphis and NIU are/were 2 of the nations dominant running teams- man do you have a surprise coming. Come on- Memphis? and NIU???????????????. Give me a break. I understand the loyalty and the high hopes for the home team but let's be real. Memphis and NIU are not on the same level as Penn State, Ohio State, Texas, Florida State, etc.

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niu did not need to run because we could not stop the passing game of niu.i love the zips, but i don't make excuses.the defense got run over the last two games. i think we did do a good job on williams in the first half.i think defnese line ,and lb depth was a major issue last year. that doesn't mean this defense won't be great this year. i just know last year those two guys ran wild.

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No one said Akron stay home and there was no cockiness. If you truely think Memphis and NIU are the "elite" running teams in the country then you're going to have to accept ridacule fromn the rest of the college football world. Talk about an insulated view of college football. Also, I love the quoting of scores from PSU's worst seasons ever. Remind me again of the score the last time these 2 met? That one seems more relevant. ANYWAY, I have no problem with you being homers for the zips or reading why you think it will be a close game/ zips win, etc. But NIU and Mermphis "elite" running schools......please.

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An improved squad in 2004? That was our worst year ever under Paterno. This year team is more talented then last years team but less experienced. I think the 1st quarter will be close but PSU will win handily. Akron will move the ball between the 20s but have tough time produciing points in the red zone. I think it will be a 31-13 type of game.

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No one said Akron stay home and there was no cockiness. If you truely think Memphis and NIU are the "elite" running teams in the country then you're going to have to accept ridacule fromn the rest of the college football world. Talk about an insulated view of college football. Also, I love the quoting of scores from PSU's worst seasons ever. Remind me again of the score the last time these 2 met? That one seems more relevant. ANYWAY, I have no problem with you being homers for the zips or reading why you think it will be a close game/ zips win, etc. But NIU and Mermphis "elite" running schools......please.
Your "insulated view" comment can be thrown right back at you. If you think the only teams in the land capable of having a top unit are the big BCSer's your flat out wrong. And BTW, Memphis DID have one of the best running units in the country last year. Look it up if you don't believe me. Same with NIU. Memphis was lead by some kid by the name of DeAngelo Williams who the Carolina Panthers felt highly enough to take in the first round of the draft. NIU was lead by Garrett Wolfe who is one of the best backs in all of college football right now when he's healthy. Now go back into your little BCS shell and wait for the beatdown that is coming to you on the second.
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Quickzip- I said nothing about BCS schools. I'll throw in EVERY BCS, non BCS, I-AA, D2, D3 school and STILL Memphis and NIU were NOT the "elite" running teams last year. Get some perspective. You think I'm insulated because I don't agree with Memphis/ NIU- you only prove my point. Memphis and NIU are not ELITE anything (other than Memphis bball). Get a grip.

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The teams are not elite, but those two running backs are/were. Williams left Memphis as the NCAA's top career rusher ever, and NIU's Wolfe is this season's top returning rusher. Watch him when he plays OSU. His team may not be that great, but he should put up some some very nice numbers against the #1 team in the country. If that is not good enough for you, I don't know what is.

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Guys, I am a little embarassed for some of you. PSU is an elite team. They have a good running game and too much team speed for us. I really want this to be a competitive game, but PSU has too much for us.I will be happy if we finish within 21 points.If we are to beat a BCS conference team, it will be NCSU. They are ours for the taking along with Cinci.My enjoyment will be when my Buckeyes destroy those kitties at the Shoe.

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The teams are not elite, but those two running backs are/were. Williams left Memphis as the NCAA's top career rusher ever, and NIU's Wolfe is this season's top returning rusher. Watch him when he plays OSU. His team may not be that great, but he should put up some some very nice numbers against the #1 team in the country. If that is not good enough for you, I don't know what is.
Are you aware that you need a good o-line to open up running lanes, and a successful passing game to spread the opposing defense? You do need an elite team, not just an elite runner to post good numbers against a #1 team. Otherwise, OSU puts 8 in the box and stuffs Wolfe all-day long. You have to be a fool to think 1 top notch player can take on 11 guys by himself. That might work in the MAC....
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I think this game will be close in the first half while PSU settles in. After the half I suspect the OL line will settle down and PSU offense will take command.

I like our chances. Akron 35 Penn St 24
Just out of curiosity I went back to see how many teams actually have scored 35 points or more on PSU, at a quick glance (might have missed one) in ten years that has only happened 6 times and 1 of those was a victory for PSU. Several of those scores were by tOSU. I am not trying to rain on anyone’s parade, but if you think the Zips are going to score 35 on the PSU defense you either are delusional or truly do not know much about football.
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I wish I was more optomistic about a victory against PSU but honestly I have a lot of respect for PSU. I think the Zips have closed the gap between the two schools but I don't think we have caught them. The Zips really need to put up a good fight in this game. JD recruits PA alot and this game will be a big perception game. Are we competitive with the defending B10 champs? I think we will be competitive and will force PSU to play strong through all four quarters.PSU 28 Akron 17

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