Zeke and the NBA Draft

[Dave in Green]

With the Zips basketball season over except for the annual banquet, the most intriguing question left about this season's team is where Zeke will go in the NBA draft. Draft analysts and NBA scouting reports offer mixed opinions, with mentions of everything from first round to second round to not getting drafted at all. Some Zips fans have expressed those same opinions right here on ZN.o. I thought I'd start off this thread by moving my last three NBA draft-related posts from the Zeke's #1 thread to this new one. The 2013 NBA draft is June 27, so we'll have the next three months to track where everyone thinks Zeke will end up.

This is one I've been waiting for. NBA Draft Express has been promising their first updated evaluation of Zeke in two years, and now it's up. It's written by their Director of Scouting/Analytics, too, so it's really thorough and professionally done. It has all the good and bad, recognizing all the improvements we've seen and pointing out where more is needed to compete in the NBA. It has lots of details and is well worth reading for a professional evaluation of Zeke's NBA potential. I'll post the first and last paragraphs below followed by a link:

Since the last time we profiled him following his sophomore season, Zeke Marshall has continued to make steady improvements with his body and game, and it appears he may have finally turned the corner in his senior season. Marshall has seen his pace-adjusted per-40 minute numbers go up across the board this season, most notably in points (+3.1), rebounds (+2), and blocks (+0.8), while he's getting to the free-throw line at a higher rate and shooting a sky-high 70% from the field (up from 54.2% last year). .....

..... Still, it's difficult to argue with the results we've seen this season, both in Marshall's stat-line and Akron's 11-0 conference record thus far. It's also worth noting that Marshall's lack of opportunities to play consistently against NBA-caliber big men and likely the lack of a top-end strength training program certainly haven't helped his development, and he could start seeing benefits from such once the season ends and the pre-draft process begins. While he's still a raw player with a lot of question marks, 7-footers with his length and shot-blocking instincts aren't easy to come by, and that will make many teams ponder if he's a player worth investing the time to develop considering the potential rewards.

Trending Prospects: Zeke Marshall

Found another NBA draft prospect evaluation on Zeke. It was written by a scout at the Can't game, and also has shorter evaluations on other players from both Can't and UA. But the focus is clearly on Zeke, and concludes with the following:

He looks to be a solid second round prospect who can shore up an NBA team's interior defense, as he possesses a strong ability to finish plays around the basket, is a really good offensive rebounder, and is a strong defender who can change the game with his shot blocking and shot altering prowess.

He was clearly the best player in this game and thoroughly dominated the opposition, despite also being the tallest player on the floor as he towered over the tallest Akron player by a good three inches. That said, he'll be a player that will be closely watched as the season progresses, as he could be a sleeper candidate for the upcoming draft.

The Sports Bank, which was "graded as the most accurate 2011 AND 2012 NBA Mock Draft on the web," now projects Zeke being drafted in the second round with the 52nd pick by the Minnesota Timberwolves (via the Brooklyn Nets):

His ability to protect the rim will earn him a chance to find a home in the league.

[Derrt]

I think he'll get drafted. I am not sure when. Good luck Zeke.

[Roo]

I think he'll get drafted. I am not sure when. Good luck Zeke.

Doesn't rebound efficiently enough for somebody his size, very limited offensively. Probably undrafted with an invite to summer league. I hope he sneaks in the second round, that would be a nice plug for the school to have a drafted NBA player.

[akronzips71]

Watching the Dance, I mean Zeke is really good, but some of these guys,,,,WOW

McGary and Withy very very impressive.

[LZIp]

Watching the Dance, I mean Zeke is really good, but some of these guys,,,,WOW

McGary and Withy very very impressive.

McGary is great moving without the ball. But man, he is bad on defense.

[skip-zip]

Doesn't rebound efficiently enough for somebody his size, very limited offensively. Probably undrafted with an invite to summer league. I hope he sneaks in the second round, that would be a nice plug for the school to have a drafted NBA player.

I'm pretty much on the same page with you. I am also hoping that he somehow gets picked somewhere in the actual draft because of the possible plug that could benefit our program.

[LZIp]

Doesn't rebound efficiently enough for somebody his size, very limited offensively. Probably undrafted with an invite to summer league. I hope he sneaks in the second round, that would be a nice plug for the school to have a drafted NBA player.

He doesnt rebound "efficiently" because he is going for the block usually, which puts him out of position. How is he limited offensively? Cant think of many 7 footers in college that can hit deep 2s/3s.

[akronzips71]

McGary is great moving without the ball. But man, he is bad on defense.

YES, THAT is why KD did not offer him when he REALLY REALLY wanted to be a Zip!

25 pts, 12 boards. Yeah, he is horrible.

[skip-zip]

He doesnt rebound "efficiently" because he is going for the block usually, which puts him out of position. How is he limited offensively? Cant think of many 7 footers in college that can hit deep 2s/3s.

So, this explains his lack of offensive rebounds too?

Are you also trying to make a point that he can shoot from long range? Have I been missing something?

Please, stick with talking about what he is good at, and hope that he can possibly get drafted into the NBA based on that.

[LZIp]

YES, THAT is why KD did not offer him when he REALLY REALLY wanted to be a Zip!

25 pts, 12 boards. Yeah, he is horrible.

I never said he is bad. Please keep taking my comments out of context.

So, this explains his lack of offensive rebounds too?

Are you also trying to make a point that he can shoot from long range? Have I been missing something?

Please, stick with talking about what he is good at, and hope that he can possibly get drafted into the NBA based on that.

OK, lets just ignore the fact that even with a great rebounder next to him, he still averaged his best ever (7.0) this season.

I said he is capable of hitting outside shots, unlike most 7 footers. He will get drafted. The only thing "limited" about his offensive game this season was his 7.1 shots per game. Reggie Keely, on a team in love with the 3, had more attempts per game than Zeke.

[UAZip0510]

Bold Prediction:

Zeke Marshall, who we all thought would be drafted, will not get selected. Demetrius Treadwell, two summers from now, WILL get drafted.

[Zipmeister]

I think he'll get drafted. I am not sure when. Good luck Zeke.

June 27, 2013

[skip-zip]

Bold Prediction:

Zeke Marshall, who we all thought would be drafted, will not get selected. Demetrius Treadwell, two summers from now, WILL get drafted.

There's a lot of people in that camp. We'll see how things go for Tree over the next year or two, but most people believe the NBA-level talent is already there. The comparisons to Jerome Lane seem pretty fitting.

[Dave in Green]

Zeke's stock in the NBA draft may go up as a result of a new metric just introduced to the basketball analytics community. Introduced at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference was a paper entitled The Dwight Effect: A New Ensemble of Interior Defense Analytics for the NBA. The paper introduces new spatial and visual analytics capable of assessing and characterizing the nature of interior defense in the NBA. In a nutshell, the paper asks two questions: 1) Who is the best interior defender in the NBA? 2) What metrics would you use to answer that question?

The paper is worth a read for those interested in stats. For those who want the Cliffs Notes version, after analyzing more than 76,000 shots taken in the NBA, one of the best interior defenders in professional basketball is none other than the Milwaukee Bucks' Larry Sanders, a player we saw at the JAR when VCU visited in 2008. Sanders led VCU to three straight wins over the Zips before being drafted after his junior season. Sanders is probably one of the closest players to Zeke in the NBA in terms of size and style. He's 6-11, 235 pounds, and has a 7-7 wingspan compared with Zeke's 7-0, 235, 7-5. He started out as a shot-blocking defensive specialist and gradually developed his offensive game in college. His junior season stats are remarkably similar to Zeke's senior season stats. Zeke outperformed Sanders in most categories except rebounds, where Sanders averaged about two more per game than Zeke.

After reading the paper, as well as an ESPN article on Sanders (Sanders Swatting Way to Stardom; Milwaukee's Young Center Has Become One of the Best Defenders in the NBA), here's what I think: New metrics show that Sanders is currently one of the most effective interior defenders in the NBA in only his third season. Zeke is a similar player to Sanders in both size and defensive style of play. Zeke's final season college performance was similar to Sanders' final season college performance. Any NBA team looking for a Sanders-like performer will probably give Zeke a good look in the next few months leading up to the NBA draft. If one of these teams believes that Zeke can be another Larry Sanders, Zeke gets drafted.

Following are brief quotes from the paper's introduction and analysis of Sanders' interior defense:

..... NBA shooters only make about 39% of their field goals from everywhere outside of 7 feet. The only shots that go in more than half the time occur very close to the rim. Despite the rapidly growing importance of the 3-point shot, good shots close to the basket remain the best shots on the floor; not only do they result in points at a higher rate, when missed they have a much greater chance of being rebounded by the shooting team. Over 70% of shots near the rim either result in points, a shooting foul or an offensive rebound. Good shots near the rim are clearly advantageous. For this reason, the league shoots over 1/3rd of its shots from the tiny portion of the court close to the basket, and defenders protect this area with more vigor than any other real estate on the court. Although the vitality of this strategic space is self-evident, few if any contemporary analytics effectively characterize the ability of players or teams to defend basketball’s most sacred real estate. The problem is obvious: interior defense is critical to basketball success, but our ability to measure or characterize players’ interior defensive abilities remains undeveloped. .....

..... Proximal FG%: the relative efficiencies of shooters in the proximity of the defender. Overall, when there is a qualifying interior defender within 5 feet of a shot attempt, the NBA shoots 45.6% from the field; however this value varies considerably depending on which defender that is. The most effective proximate defender in our study was Larry Sanders; opponents shot only 34.9% when he was within 5 feet of their shot. Conversely, Anderson Varejao was found to be the least effective proximate defenders with a proximal FG% value of 54.2%. Table 1 summarizes the best and worst players according to proximal FG%, but a complete list of proximal FG% values can be found in Appendix 2. .....

The paper can be found here, the ESPN article here, and the final college season stats comparison between Zeke and Sanders here.

[Dr Z]

Bold Prediction: Demetrius Treadwell, two summers from now, WILL get drafted.

KD is already calling Tree an NBA talent.

[Dr Z]

Watching the Dance, I mean Zeke is really good, but some of these guys,,,,WOW

McGary and Withy very very impressive.

Withy is "mocking" in the first round. McGary is still making noise in the tourney. Both are impressive. Reading through Withy's Draft Scouting Report reminds of someone else.

[Roo]

He doesnt rebound "efficiently" because he is going for the block usually, which puts him out of position. How is he limited offensively? Cant think of many 7 footers in college that can hit deep 2s/3s.

Which is not a good thing. He is a very capable shot blocker against bigs, he is awful against guards driving. He goes for the block way too much, rather than staying in position, contesting, turning and rebounding. That is an efficient rebounder playing smart defense.

Plenty of bigs can step out and hit long 2s, but you won't find any coach wanting him to do that. He is too weak in the lower body to not get pushed around. A great example of a much more polished scorer who has the same problem in the NBA is the Cavs Tyler Zeller. Now Zeke is no where near as polished as Tyler was on the offensive end in any aspect and Tyler can barely muster any offense at the next level. He is extremely limited, you have blinders if you think otherwise.

[LZIp]

Which is not a good thing. He is a very capable shot blocker against bigs, he is awful against guards driving. He goes for the block way too much, rather than staying in position, contesting, turning and rebounding. That is an efficient rebounder playing smart defense.

Plenty of bigs can step out and hit long 2s, but you won't find any coach wanting him to do that. He is too weak in the lower body to not get pushed around. A great example of a much more polished scorer who has the same problem in the NBA is the Cavs Tyler Zeller. Now Zeke is no where near as polished as Tyler was on the offensive end in any aspect and Tyler can barely muster any offense at the next level. He is extremely limited, you have blinders if you think otherwise.

I really dont see how you can say he is awful against guards driving. From what I recall, very few guards scored over him.

As for the Tyler Zeller comparison, I dont see how you can compare them whatsoever, but I will bite. I admit Zeke is not the offensive player that Zeller was in college. But remember, Zeller is nothing AT ALL on defense like Zeke. You knock Zeller, but seem to forget he was drafted in the middle of the first round, and is only a rookie. He is 4/6 against the Hawks and Al Horford at halftime right now, actually. Zeller struggles in the NBA because he is a softie. He doesnt have the physical game like most centers in the NBA, or like Zeke.

Zeke, however, is not limited on offense when you compare him to other centers that actually have a similar playing style to him. Noel and Withey are good comparisons, IMO. Zeke is much better on offense than both of them. However, they will be drafted higher because of having higher upside. Noel has absolutely no offensive game at all and people had him going #1 before the ACL.

I think he will be drafted late first/second. It depends on what type of center a team wants. I know the Cavs could sure as hell use some interior defense. I guess that we will have to wait and see, though. I wish the best to him, and could see him having a decent length career in the NBA regardless if he is drafted or not.

[Dave in Green]

For those who didn't read the ESPN article on Larry Sanders, here are some points that may also be applicable to Zeke in the NBA.

..... After his first two seasons in Milwaukee, Sanders' potential had turned on him. He was averaging 4 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.5 blocks for his career in sparse minutes with a player efficiency rating south of 13. His impact on defense was clear -- the Bucks allowed 11.5 fewer points per 100 possessions in Sanders' sophomore season, the lockout-shortened 2011-12 -- but a foul rate that led the league by a large margin and a questionable shot selection limited his value and his playing time.

Over that same span, he would watch the Bucks add Ekpe Udoh and rookie John Henson -- young, long and lanky power forward/centers in the same mold as Sanders -- to their already crowded frontcourt. A forgettable second summer-league stint also left some "scratching their heads," according to interim coach Jim Boylan.

The high ceiling that once made Sanders so appealing was beginning to look more like an unreachable brass ring.

Then training camp happened.

"I had never seen anybody transform like that from the summertime, where he didn't have a great summer league. We were a little bit discouraged," says Boylan, who took over as head coach for Scott Skiles 32 games into this season. "But he came back ready to go and all of a sudden -- boom -- he was one of our best players in training camp. It was kind of surprising. But it was great to see because the things that he can do really affect the outcome of the game." .....

[skip-zip]

Zeller struggles in the NBA because he is a softie. He doesnt have the physical game like most centers in the NBA, or like Zeke.

Wow. You dig a deeper hole with every post.

Now you want to add "Physical" to his accolades ? Something that I don't believe I have ever heard once as a descriptive word, by anyone, in the 4 years he played at Akron?

And I thought "can hit deep 2's/3's" was off the deep end.

Can I respectfully ask how many of his games you've actually watched over the last few years?

[LZIp]

Wow. You dig a deeper hole with every post.

Now you want to add "Physical" to his accolades ? Something that I don't believe I have ever heard once as a descriptive word, by anyone, in the 4 years he played at Akron?

And I thought "can hit deep 2's/3's" was off the deep end.

Can I respectfully ask how many of his games you've actually watched over the last few years?

never heard of a player who is a premiere shot blocker described as "soft".

Done arguing with you guys. I've made my points. We will see who is right and who knows nothing when the draft comes around.

[Dave in Green]

Zeke actually developed a really good outside shot very late in his college career. You could see him hitting more and more outside shots in warmups as the season went on. It developed to the point that Coach Dambrot late in the season added a play where Zeke would catch the inbounds pass deep and was free to shoot if open. He only took three 3-pointers all season and made two of them. So not enough data to confirm whether or not he could consistently hit long shots on a regular basis. But he did show potential. So I'd say the debate over whether or not Zeke could be a good outside shooter has insufficient data to make a definitive conclusion at this point.

The point that Zeke doubters overlook the most is that he remains a classic late bloomer even after four years of college ball. The improvement in his offense between his junior and senior seasons was significant. He kept showing more right up until the end of his college career. When Coach Dambrot talks with NBA scouts about Zeke, he tells them that Zeke is in the middle of a continuous upward curve, and that he will require a couple of more years of development to start showing all he's got. He's the polar opposite of the precocious young one-and-done players who typically gravitate to Kentucky. Zeke still has a huge upside, and represents a good gamble for an NBA team with a little patience.

There's one more point about Zeke that I've thought about a lot but which I never wanted to mention for fear of jinxing him. Zeke just finished a 4-year college career without missing a single game or even being slowed down due to injury. That takes on added significance when you consider that the Cleveland Cavaliers are thinking about taking a gamble on the injury-prone Greg Oden. Talented 7-foot centers are rare. Injury-free talented 7-foot centers are even more rare. Zeke has a lot of things going for him that aren't typical topics of conversation on sports forums.

[Dr Z]

... or even being slowed down due to injury.

Check out what this guy posted

[Z.I.P.]

I don't have an opportunity to read a lot of what is on these board (unfortunately ), however, I thought you all would be interested to know that ESPN NBA draft honcho Chad Ford recently said that Zeke is a likely first round NBA pick. That's contrary to not only a lot of what I read here, but much from the "expert" blogosphere as well. Ford is an islander, like myself (teaches at BYU-Hawaii), and I'm looking to pin him down for a minute to talk, if I can find his 10-20. Wish me luck!

[Dave in Green]

Check out what this guy posted

I made that post on Jan. 14. Did you think to check Zeke's stats in the Jan. 16 game to see how much it slowed him down?