The Zips are definitely alive for a top four seed. It's not still possible to grab the number one, since either Toledo or CMU will finish with at least 12 wins. The fact that the Zips lost to lower division teams much more than the upper division teams oddly works in their favor. The first thing that must happen is the Zips must win their final two. If they don't, there are still some outside scenarios that could still give them seed #4 but they are pretty remote (like requiring both Buffalo and Can't to lose their final two games). Top four seed contenders remaining games: East: Zips: @Miami, @Can't BGSU: Can't, @Buffalo Buffalo: Ohio, BGSU Can't: @BGSU, Akron West: Toledo: @CMU, @EMU CMU: Toledo, @WMU WMU: @NIU, CMU Buffalo looks to be in the best shape since both of their games are at home with the easiest draw So as it looks right now, here are the best scenarios for the Zips. Games tonight. Toledo is the Zips kryptonite and are the only top team to hold an advantage on the Zips, so probably best for them to beat Central and bring Central back to the pack as they could also lose the Western and the Zips hold the tiebreaker with them. The Zips pretty much need to beat Can't in the finale so yep root for them against Bowling Green (I threw up a little in my mouth there). It'd be great if Ohio upset the Bulls too but I don't think there is much chance of that happening. Those are the important games tonight and if the Zips can beat Can't it sets up some really interesting final scenarios. If the Zips tie with only these teams, here is how the tiebreakers would go: 1. Tie only with CMU, Can't State, BGSU or WMU: Zips win all of these. 2. Tie only with Buffalo: Zips win it, with a 1-1 record against Buffalo, but the Zips are 1-2 against Toledo and CMU while Buffalo is 0-3 and at least one of those team will have 12 wins (if BGSU factors in the Zips already have two wins there) 3. Tie only with Toledo (not even sure that is possible): Zips lose If the Zips tie with these two teams, here is how the tiebreakers would go: Can't and Buffalo: Can't eliminated (0-4 vs. UB and UA), goes to tiebreaker 2 Can't and BGSU: Zips win 4-0 vs these two BGSU and Buffalo: Zips 3-1 and BGSU at best 1-3 even if they beat Buffalo (buffalo at worst 2-2), Zips win again CMU and Buffalo: Zips 2-1, CMU 2-1, Buffalo 1-3, Buffalo eliminated, Zips win head to head against CMU CMU and BGSU: Zips 3-0, BGSU 1-2, CMU 0-2, Zips win CMU and Can't State: Zips 3-0, Can't State 1-2, CMU 0-2, Zips win Toledo and almost anybody: We're screwed Three way ties: Can't State, Buffalo, BGSU: UA 5-1, Buffalo (5-1, best they can be), BGSU (3-3, best they can be), Can't State (1-5, best they can be), Zips win Can't State, Buffalo, CMU: UA 4-1, CMU 2-1, Buffalo 3-3, Zips win Buffalo, CMU, BGSU: UA 4-1, CMU 2-2, Buffalo 3-3 (best case), BGSU 2-3 (best case), Zips win Can't State, BGSU, CMU: UA 5-0, case closed, Zips win Toledo and anybody: Zips are screwed So if the Zips can manage to at least get into a tie with any teams for the fourth (or better) seeding position, they win an awful lot of tiebreakers. Just win baby.