Dave in Green

@skip-zip, no, I'm not calling Wood and Romeo "Centers". And I didn't put a "qualified starter" label on Isaiah Johnson, either. The point is that the Zips will have two talented true centers next season. As I said in an earlier post, I expect Forsythe to start and Johnson to back him up. I do not see the Zips starting games with two true centers sitting. After showing early promise, Forsythe did struggle as the season went on. Still, his numbers were not that bad. In 11.2 minutes per game, Pat averaged 3.4 points, 2.7 rebounds and .8 blocks per game. If he doubled his PT next season to 22.4 minutes per game and made no improvement in his performance, he'd average 6.8 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game. By comparison, Zeke averaged exactly 22.4 minutes per game in his sophomore season, and he averaged 8.5 points, 4.9 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game. So any reasonable improvement in Pat's overall performance next season should allow him to approach Zeke's overall sophomore performance.

@skip-zip, we're talking starting lineup here, not what the lineup might look like from time to time in the middle of some games. How many times has Coach Dambrot ever not had a true center in the starting lineup when he had a healthy, qualified center on the roster? With two centers of the caliber of Pat Forsythe and Isaiah Johnson on the roster, it's almost certain that there will be a true center in the starting lineup next season. I'll bookmark this thread and we can revisit the subject after next season is underway.

@LZip, when and why did you start taking Zipmeister's comments seriously? @skip-zip, do you honestly believe that with two talented true centers on the roster that the Zips are going to start a power forward at center? Think about it: Coach Dambrot used to have a long history of not recruiting transfers. Then along come Q, Gilliam and Walsh. He used to have a long history of not recruiting academic non-qualifiers. Then along come Tree and Harney. He used to have a long history of not playing freshmen long minutes. Then along comes Kretzer who plays 40+ minutes in his first D-I game and averages more than 20 minutes per game on the season. He used to have a long history of not recruiting junior college players. Then along comes Nyles Evans for next season. I'm not a bettor, but I'd be willing to ante up some cash that a true center will start at center next season. Eagerly anticipating your well-thought-out response.

@Quickzips, your post was well worth waiting for. Really nice analysis of this season and a thoughtful first look at next season. It's hard to find much in your post that I disagree with. The one thing I'd question is the SG/SF/PF alignment. First, showing Harney as Tree's primary backup doesn't make sense to me. Tree and Harney were both starters most of this season, and Tree is playing long minutes. So there's not much backup time available at PF, and I'm not sure about Harney going from a starter to a backup. Second, showing Jackson in the regular rotation over Gladden is also questionable to me. By all accounts it appears that Gladden is more ready for college play than Jackson. Gladden is so strong that he's been characterized as an undersized power forward. Based on that, I'm guessing the early season starting/primary (secondary) backup lineup as follows: PG - Evans/Betancourt (Diggs) SG - Diggs/McAdams (Kretzer) SF - Harney/Gladden (Kretzer) PF - Treadwell/Kretzer (Harney) C - Forsythe/Johnson (Treadwell) Within that lineup there's a lot of flexibility at the 2/3/4 positions. For example, Kretzer averaged 21 minutes per game as a freshman, so he will surely get a lot more PT than just backing up Tree at PF. Kretzer may be a good 6th man candidate because he can play the 2/3/4. Diggs has already proven he can play several different positions and win the MAC 6th Man of the Year award. I guess that Harney could also qualify as a potential 6th man, which, of course, would take him out of the starting lineup as you suggested. I think Coach Dambrot will do his usual early season experimentation with different combinations to see which players work together best in different situations. Maybe the most effective lineup will be a surprise.

@Blue & Gold, keep in mind when you put Gladden at the 2 position that he was the leading rebounder on his HS team, and was rated by at least one ranking service as an "undersized power forward." Gladden's main shooting strength is taking the ball to the bucket rather than shooting from outside. So it may make more sense playing him at the 3 than the 2 to keep him closer to the basket. On the other hand, McAdams is more of a 3-point shooter than Gladden, so it may make more sense playing him at the 2 than the 3.

Based on the fact that Coach Dambrot has now said there's a 95 percent chance of Q returning, I'm guessing that talk about potential additions like Spruill will fade. With Abreu gone, Q back, Nyles Evans added and all other scholarship players returning, the Zips will have 14 players vying for 13 scholarships.

Right. It also results in him being shown as scoring 124.8 points per 40 minutes. That would really mess up Coach Dambrot's balanced scoring philosophy.

Note that some of the NJCAA stats are highly suspect. For example, they show Nyles averaging only 5 minutes of PT per game. They also show him committing only 4 personal fouls all season.

Abreu played 37 of 45 minutes (OT) at the point in last season's VCU game, which means that Q played the point 8 minutes at most in relief. Since Q played 27 minutes in the VCU game, that means he played 19 minutes at the wing. He's equally comfortable playing the 2 or 3 positions as a wing. Q played no backup PG in his sophomore season and finished with a turnover percentage of 25.2. Playing some backup PG as a junior, his turnover percentage rose only slightly to 27.6, which means he handled the point pretty well as a backup. Point is not his primary position, but it strengthens the team to have him available as a backup if needed.

I like these odds:

Special thanks to Zipmeister for reminding me in another thread that I haven't been reporting enough on Illinois basketball recently. John Groce gets raise, extension

@GP1, I've had many conversations with Zeke's mom over the years. I sat at a table with her and spoke with her about Zeke at the banquet last night. The newspaper quotes are accurate in the sense that Zeke did not develop the passion for basketball required to motivate him to become NBA-ready until the last year or two. That's why his performance improved dramatically this season, and that's why he now has a real shot at being drafted.

Absolutely correct. The basketball forum is not the place for a football discussion.

Zeke's previous lack of love for basketball has been discussed at length both on this forum and in various stories. Here's what Zeke's mom had to say in a recent Marla Ridenour story: And in this recent Zac Jackson story:

A few more thoughts on the banquet: The three seniors all spoke movingly about how much it meant to them to be a part of the Zips program and how they all felt like part of a big family. Brian Walsh went first and had notes so as not to forget to thank everyone. He expressed how much he felt that he was wanted by the Zips coaching staff after he decided to leave Xavier, and how wonderful it had been to have his parents at all the games. Chauncey Gilliam went next without notes, and had some good, funny lines. He mentioned how his parents had driven from the Baltimore area to Akron for all the Zips home games, drove all the way back home after games and were at work the next morning. That's dedication! He closed by citing a long poem about overcoming adversity that he had memorized. Very impressive. Zeke had a bug and was under the weather. But he still came across as a strong and confident young man who had grown up considerably in his four years at UA. Overcoming adversity was a big point of discussion all evening from everyone who spoke. Len Paul stood up and spoke inspirationally at length about how moved he was by the way this team had overcome so much adversity to put together the nation's longest college winning streak of the season. He remarked that even the best fans could never totally appreciate how difficult it is to maintain team chemistry and overcome the kind of adversity this team faced from before the start of the season right through the last game and perform as well as they had. He talked about how this experience of overcoming adversity would serve all the players well over the rest of their lives. Coach Dambrot remarked how exceptional it is to have UA's greatest basketball player remain so close to the team all these years and help mentor the young players. One of the most touching moments of the evening came when the widow of Phil Martin (zip37 on ZipsNation) stood up and thanked the team and the coaching staff for all the wonderful years of entertainment they had provided for her late husband. I remember seeing Phil at every game before he passed away. He had worked for many decades for the National Weather Service at the Akron-Canton Airport, and was enjoying his retirement in Green, close to CAK. Every time I saw him in Green, we'd talk Zips basketball and he was absolutely passionate about it. Coach Dambrot said it was fans like Phil who make coaching at UA so special to him.

GameChngr44 told us at the banquet last night to look for this article. This part of George's really well-written story sums it up for me: I believe that Zeke's potential is unbelievable, and that he's the only one who can fully activate his own potential. It sounds as if he's doing everything right, from the Marine Corps-type personal trainer to attending the highly rated John Lucas training camp in Houston. I think if Zeke even partially activates his remaining potential, he can be an NBA backup center. If he fully activates his potential, he could be a starting NBA center producing unbelievable results. The work required is daunting, but the financial payoff could be in the tens of millions of dollars over his career.

I also found sites listing Dmitre at 6-5, 350 as well as 6-4, 375. The award for biggest Dmitre goes to this story calling him "6-foot-5-inches tall and 400 pounds."

Congratulations to GoZips. He really does bleed blue and gold, and is well deserving of this award. He really does know more about what's going on inside Zips basketball than anyone else posting on this forum. Problem is, if he shared all he knew, they would revoke the award and forever lock him out of the JAR. On the hard news front, those with big travel budgets will be excited to learn that the Zips are working on starting next season in one of the Hawaiian tournaments. I didn't catch which one. Maybe someone else can fill in. Coach Dambrot says they are working hard to put together another top 50 SOS OOC schedule for next season, with the goal of getting to a top 25 SOS OOC schedule as soon as they are able to put all the pieces together. Middle Tennessee likes the Akron rivalry and this may become a long-running series. Oral Roberts and Marshall will play at the JAR next season, and the Zips will play at Cleveland State. Coach Dambrot also reported that 17-year-old Kwan Cheatham is still in a growth spurt, and is now up to 6-10, 230 pounds. In the some things never change department, Coach Dambrot says the Zips will continue to be a primarily man-to-man defense team with the zone used sparingly. They will make adjustments to the game plan based on no longer having Zeke to guard the rim. Finally, GameChngr44 promised us that she will continue to post on ZipsNation and keep us up to date on Zeke's interactions with NBA teams leading up to the draft.

@skip-zip, you are correct that Ohio's roster for this game is clearly not as loaded with top 10 and top 20 recruits as Kentucky's, at least by the most recent Bolus rankings. I'm not sure that anyone without direct knowledge of this game and its history can do much more than speculate. I'll speculate that all-star games between adjacent states typically generate more interest close to the border between the two states. The game is played in Kentucky just south of Cincinnati. The gym it's held in seats only 1,200, so it's not a huge spectator event. Kentucky's main basketball hotbeds, the Louisville and Lexington metropolitan areas, are both reasonably close to the Ohio border. The Cleveland area and all of northern Ohio are pretty far removed from the Kentucky border. Many of Ohio's top HS senior recruits (Marc Loving, Mark Donnal, Nigel Hayes, etc.) are from northern Ohio. It may just be that the game is bigger for Kentucky than it is for Ohio. Maybe someone else will have more specific information.

Just to give you an idea of how different the HS player ranking services are, I ran the roster of Kentucky players for this game against the Rick Bolus High Potential Basketball Recruiting mid-season review of Kentucky's top senior prospects. By the Bolus rankings, the Kentucky roster has the numbers 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, 19, 20 and 23 ranked HS seniors from the state of Kentucky. So Kentucky has 7 of the top 10 and 12 of the top 20 senior prospects on the roster. The Ohio roster is probably similar to that if anyone wants to take the time to run it from the Bolus site here.

As usual, different perspectives produce different impressions. Consider the following: First, only rarely do all of the top players invited to an all-star game accept the invitation due to various conflicts. Second, this game annually matches players mostly from those schools closer to the Ohio-Kentucky border. Finally, ESPN's list of top 10 HS players is only one of many different top 10 lists and not necessarily always the most accurate. Taking all of the above into consideration, it's actually fairly impressive to me that both the Ohio and Kentucky rosters have 4 of one service's list of top 10 players from each state.

After running a few more advanced metrics comparisons on DraftExpress.com for centers who are included among their top 100 college players, I found some pretty impressive overall results for Zeke. NBA teams pay a lot of attention to these advanced metrics, which show that Zeke performs better in many offensive and defensive areas than many of the bigger name centers. Obviously there are other areas where Zeke ranks lower, such as rebounding. But even there he's not that far off some of the top-ranked centers. For example, Kelly Olynyk averaged only .3 more rebounds per game than Zeke. Below I'll post the top 5s where Zeke did well to give everyone a better perspective of where Zeke stands in comparison to other centers who are considered certain draft choices: Pts/Pos (points per possession) 1. Zeke Marshall (1.31) 2. Kelly Olynyk (1.26) 3. Ryan Kelly (1.23) 4. Jack Cooley (1.21) 5. Cody Zeller (1.19) Pts/Play (points per play) 1. Zeke Marshall (1.17) 2. Kelly Olynyk (1.15) 3. Ryan Kelly (1.08) 4. Jack Cooley (1.08) 5. Cody Zeller (1.07) eFG% (effective field goal percentage) 1. Zeke Marshall (0.66) 2. Kelly Olynyk (0.64) 3. Mason Plumlee (0.60) 4. Mitch McGary (0.60) 5. Nerlens Noel (0.59) FTA/Pos (free throw attempts per possession) 1. Zeke Marshall (0.57) 2. Colton Iverson (0.53) 3. Cody Zeller (0.52) 4. Trevor Mbakwe (0.51) 5. Mason Plumlee (0.47) FTA/FGA (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) 1. Zeke Marshall (0.79) 2. Trevor Mbakwe (0.74) 3. Colton Iverson (0.74) 4. Cody Zeller (0.73) 5. Mason Plumlee (0.69) TS% (true shooting percentage) 1. Kelly Olynyk (0.68) 2. Zeke Marshall (0.66) 3. Mason Plumlee (0.63) 4. Adreian Payne (0.63) 5. Jeff Withey (0.62) EFF/40 (efficiency per 40 minutes) 1. Kelly Olynyk (32.1) 2. Mike Muscala (32.0) 3. Zeke Marshall (27.2) 4. Jeff Withey (27.0) 5. Cody Zeller (26.9) BK/g (blocks per game) 1. Nerlens Noel (4.4) 2. Jeff Withey (3.9) 3. Zeke Marshall (3.6) 4. Gorgui Dieng (2.5) 5. Mike Muscala (2.3) PER (player efficiency rating) 1. Kelly Olynyk (37.0) 2. Mike Muscala (36.1) 3. Cody Zeller (30.2) 4. Zeke Marshall (30.1) 5. Jack Cooley (28.9) PPR (assist to turnover rating) 1. Ryan Kelly (0.31) 2. Mike Muscala (-0.58) 3. Gorgui Dieng (-1.50) 4. Nerlens Noel (-2.60) 5. Zeke Marshall (-2.80) WS/40 (win score per 40 minutes) 1. Mike Muscala (16.9) 2. Nerlens Noel (16.0) 3. Kelly Olynyk (15.7) 4. Jack Cooley (15.4) 5. Jeff Withey (14.5) 6. Zeke Marshall (14.4)

@GP1, just google 2013 NBA team needs, and you'll find dozens of articles about which teams need which type of player. Having said that, the biggest shortage in the NBA happens to be talented 7-foot centers. So Zeke could be a target for just about any NBA team that doesn't already have a pair of talented 7-foot centers, and especially one who excels at guarding the rim. @skip-zip, whether you realize it or not, most of the mock draft gurus like Hoops Analyst now rely on advanced stats along with visual observation to make their player evaluations. While raw numbers alone may not accurately predict who will do better at the next level, there are proprietary advanced metrics that have been run against former college players who either succeeded or failed in the NBA. By correlating against historical performance, predictions based on more sophisticated metrics are becoming more accurate. It appears that more people are becoming aware that Zeke passes both the eye test and the metrics test. For example, DraftExpress.com has a whole section on stats for player comparisons. If you go to their interactive stats section and plug in their top 100 college players in the country (freshman through senior), then centers, and sort various metrics, you'll find that Zeke compares quite favorably with the top big name centers. In fact, Zeke is #1 among centers in points per possession ahead of Gonzaga's highly touted Kelly Olynyk. In EFF/40 (efficiency per 40 minutes), Zeke is #3 behind only Olynyk and Mike Muscala. In PER (player efficiency rating), Zeke is the #4 center behind only Olynyk, Muscala and Cody Zeller. Zeke is also among the top few college centers in other performance areas that are important considerations for NBA teams. Zeke's draft stock continues to rise.

Hoops Analyst currently ranks Zeke #34 among his top 60 draft choices, and some of the underclassmen ranked ahead of him have already announced that they're not entering this season's draft, i.e. Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein. Here's what Hoops Analyst has to say about Zeke: And here's what he says about centers in general in the upcoming NBA draft: If you scroll down to some of the earlier Hoops Analyst mock drafts, you can see that he has consistently focused on centers in this draft: And you can see that Zeke has been moving up from his earlier ranking:

If Middle Tennessee is interested in Spruill, he's probably talented enough to earn PT with the Zips. He's ranked #66 in the country by jucorecruiting.com, so it would be similar to getting a top 100 HS recruit. Apparently UNCW is intriguing to Spruill as it would allow him to play college ball about 20 miles from his home and family.