Dave in Green

Possibly another Jeremiah Jackson -- outstanding HS basketball player but not prepared to take on the academic demands of college life? He sounds pretty talented from reading this article. Then again, this article says he's borderline D1/D2.

NBA mock drafts are all over the place when it comes to accuracy. The best ones give you a ballpark idea. Paul M. Banks, CEO of TheSportsBank.net, came up with a point system for mock draft accuracy in 2011 and applied it to 34 different published mock drafts, with the results showing a wide variation. In 2012 Banks expanded to grading 122 different mock drafts, again with widely varying results. David Kay ended up with the most accurate mock draft in both 2011 and 2012, as noted here, with Chad Ford essentially tying Kay for accuracy in 2012. For 2013, Kay projects Zeke to be the #55 draft pick, going to the Los Angeles Clippers, with the comment: "His ability to protect the rim will earn him a chance to find a home in the league." As previously mentioned on ZN.o, Ford stated in an online chat that Zeke "for sure" has a chance of being drafted and "a very good shot at the first round." So the two mock draft gurus who tied for most accurate mock drafts last season (Kay and Ford) are both optimistic about Zeke's chances. But there are plenty of mock drafts out there that don't include Zeke for anyone who might be looking for reinforcement of the pessimistic viewpoint.

Good poll. While it's no lock that Zeke will be drafted, I'm taking the optimistic view and voting yes. Beyond his 4-season performance record with the Zips, I think Zeke will impress some NBA teams in pre-draft workouts and convince at least one team that his upside makes him a good draft investment.

@skip-zip, good questions. Here's the answer from the explanation story about how they can accurately compare the offensive and defensive performance of players who've competed against different levels of competition, i.e. MAC vs. Big East: As far as different services ranking players differently, that's just the nature of talent evaluation. Beyond a small number of "can't miss" prospects, there is no perfect system for predicting which college players will do best in the NBA. Every year some players with really good college performances fail to make it in the pros, and some who didn't show obvious signs of greatness in the college game actually perform better in the NBA environment. The Value Add Basketball ratings may or may not be the holy grail of more accurately predicting which college players are more likely to do well in the NBA. I see it as one of many tools that NBA teams can use to try to make the smartest draft choices. I think that the more of these services where Zeke ranks near the top, the better his chances are of being drafted.

@trimmy10, there's certainly room for different interpretations, as the description does not provide comprehensive detail and we're left to try to read between the lines. When I see a line that says "These evaluations are only available to select NBA teams," I take that to mean that the enhanced evaluations are only available to NBA teams that pay for them. If NBA teams are willing to pay for this service, I take that to mean that they find value in the enhanced evaluations beyond the teams' normal scouting services. I do not interpret the wording of the entire article to suggest that these evaluations are used by NBA teams exclusively to discover sleepers that they wouldn't otherwise find. My interpretation is that the enhanced evaluations, which go beyond the basic ones posted online, are actually useful in more accurately predicting which college players are more likely to be successful in the NBA. I'd be interested in hearing if others interpret this differently from the different ways that you and I do.

@trimmy10, no offense taken. No offense intended from me, either, but it appears from your response that you didn't read the explanation I linked to or you would have seen the following about what NBA team officials actually think about this system:

Zeke's NBA draft status is enhanced by being ranked #23 overall and one of the top projected NBA centers out of more than 3,000 NCAA players in the season's final Value Add Basketball ratings. The rating system, developed by Rob Lowe, measures players' total contribution to their teams' offenses and defenses with tempo-free statistics. A version of this system is used by NBA teams to predict how well potential draftees will do in the NBA based on their college performance. So the fact that Zeke is ranked so high is a big plus because the system has been an accurate predictor of NBA talent. Here's a link to the final standings and here's a link to an explanation of how the system works.

@HS Stripes, your officiating input is always appreciated. But in this instance I think you stated only part of the NCAA rule on goaltending. Here's the full rule with my bolding on Art. 3:

@UAZip0510, thanks for the clarification. Good observations. With a late bloomer like Zeke, it's hard to measure how much growth is left in his game. He certainly showed a lot of improvement between his junior and senior seasons, including starting to show signs of a motor and just starting to show potential for an accurate outside shot. I believe that Coach Dambrot has said that Zeke is still about two years away from being able to contribute to an NBA team.

@UAZip0510, I'm not exactly sure how one defines an "NBA frame" for a center, as there is a wide variation in pounds-per-inch among centers currently on NBA team rosters. Zeke is currently 7-0, 235 pounds. There should be little doubt that on an NBA diet and weight training program he could easily add another 10 pounds. Following is a partial list of current NBA centers who are roughly the same height (within an inch) and weight (within 10 pounds) of Zeke's 7-0/235: Tyson Chandler (7-1/240) New York Knicks Marcus Camby (6-11/240) New York Knicks Amar'e Stoudemire (6-11/240) New York Knicks Larry Sanders (6-11/235) Milwaukee Bucks Joel Przybilla (7-1/245) Milwaukee Bucks Joakim Noah (6-11/232) Chicago Bulls Chris Bosh (6-11/235) Miami Heat LaMarcus Aldridge (6-11/240) Portland Trail Blazers Meyers Leonard (7-1/245) Portland Trail Blazers Cole Aldrich (6-11/245) Sacramento Kings Ryan Hollins (7-0/240) Los Angeles Clippers Spencer Hawes (7-1/245) Philadeophia 76ers

Zeke is currently ranked all over the place by various NBA draft ranking services. I expect them to all start getting more serious about updating their rankings in the coming weeks after all the postseason tournaments are concluded. For example, DraftExpress currently ranks Zeke #22 among all seniors regardless of position and #97 among the top 100 prospects regardless of class. But many of the underclassmen ranked above him will not be coming out for the 2013 draft, and will choose to stay in school. Once it's determined which underclassmen are declaring for the draft, it will become clearer what Zeke's chances are of being among the 60 players who will be selected in the actual NBA draft.

Ah, GoZips.com is on top of it. Zeke had a so-so game. And, wouldn't you just know it, Cooper was named the Reese's Perfect Player of the Game, with 11 points, nine assists, four rebounds and three steals off the bench. I guess in a game where the players don't even get to practice together, the guy handling the ball (PG) has a little advantage. Oh, well. Hopefully Zeke's defense impressed the NBA scouts.

No mention of Zeke in the AP story, and no box score yet. But here are a couple of paragraphs from the AP story:

Zeke's team (East) won, 87-81. Where did you see Zeke's stats?

Wish I had time, but I've barely scratched the surface yet on investigating this short list of conspiracy theories.

So an enforcement process will need to remain in place to make sure that schools don't cheat up academic results of stud athletes to keep them eligible. And then someone will come along with the concept that it's unfair to keep professional athletes from earning their money just because they don't do as well in classes as they do in sports, and it will be the hot topic on all the sports forums.

@GP1, that was a big long response that totally missed the point and failed to address the question of whether or not paid, professional college athletes should be required to go to class and maintain minimum grade averages in order to retain eligibility?

Auburn was apparently ahead of its time. They aren't just accused of paying money to their players in violation of current NCAA rules, but also of cheating their grades to maintain eligibility. That would be the next step after the great renaissance concept of legalizing the payment of cash to college players. Once they're making lots of money playing college ball, someone will lead the charge to say how unfair it is that college players who are doing a great job on the field could be cheated out of that money by not performing well academically. Why do they need to be students, anyway? They're paid professional athletes at that point. Why should they even bother wasting everyone's time going to class?

Maybe he decided it was a more productive use of time to read Tim Donaghy's book to try to learn the hidden truth behind what happened to Alex Abreu.

I think I've just cracked the secret code behind this diabolical plot: A-bre-u A-ren-a

Zeke gets a chance to go head-to-head against Bucknell's Mike Muscala, who's recently been touted as a higher potential NBA draft pick than Zeke. Great opportunity for Zeke to show his stuff in front of all the NBA scouts who will be gathered in Atlanta for the Final Four. There's no doubt that Cooper will be able to give Zeke quality feeds in the post when they're in the game together.

@Dr Z, if you're referring to the fact that Zeke had a couple of games out of his career 138 games where he played reduced minutes due to tendinitis in a knee that also got hit, I don't consider that being slowed down by an injury in the overall context of the point about Zeke's remarkable durability. But I suppose it could be argued that tendinitis is an injury -- one of the most common and minor injuries in sports -- and that he technically was slowed down for a couple of games. I guess it would be surprising if someone didn't make that argument on a sports forum, where no point is too minor to be debated.

I made that post on Jan. 14. Did you think to check Zeke's stats in the Jan. 16 game to see how much it slowed him down?

Zeke actually developed a really good outside shot very late in his college career. You could see him hitting more and more outside shots in warmups as the season went on. It developed to the point that Coach Dambrot late in the season added a play where Zeke would catch the inbounds pass deep and was free to shoot if open. He only took three 3-pointers all season and made two of them. So not enough data to confirm whether or not he could consistently hit long shots on a regular basis. But he did show potential. So I'd say the debate over whether or not Zeke could be a good outside shooter has insufficient data to make a definitive conclusion at this point. The point that Zeke doubters overlook the most is that he remains a classic late bloomer even after four years of college ball. The improvement in his offense between his junior and senior seasons was significant. He kept showing more right up until the end of his college career. When Coach Dambrot talks with NBA scouts about Zeke, he tells them that Zeke is in the middle of a continuous upward curve, and that he will require a couple of more years of development to start showing all he's got. He's the polar opposite of the precocious young one-and-done players who typically gravitate to Kentucky. Zeke still has a huge upside, and represents a good gamble for an NBA team with a little patience. There's one more point about Zeke that I've thought about a lot but which I never wanted to mention for fear of jinxing him. Zeke just finished a 4-year college career without missing a single game or even being slowed down due to injury. That takes on added significance when you consider that the Cleveland Cavaliers are thinking about taking a gamble on the injury-prone Greg Oden. Talented 7-foot centers are rare. Injury-free talented 7-foot centers are even more rare. Zeke has a lot of things going for him that aren't typical topics of conversation on sports forums.

For those who didn't read the ESPN article on Larry Sanders, here are some points that may also be applicable to Zeke in the NBA.