Dave in Green

@skip-zip, despite their otherwise good numbers, MTSU has only one top 100 RPI win for the whole season. No team has ever been awarded an at-large bid without at least three top 100 wins. The last time a team with only three top 100 wins made the tournament with an at-large bid was in 2003. So you really need at least four top 100 wins to have a reasonable shot. The Zips currently have four top 100 wins, but fall short in other areas. Check out MTSU's NCAA Selection Sheet.

Everyone has a different idea of what's "best." That pretty much guarantees that no matter what UA may eventually do, many will be dissatisfied. What else is new?

Interesting matchup for Isaiah Johnson Wednesday night when Walnut Hills meets Springboro in a regional semifinal. Springboro is led by 6-10 Maverick Morgan, who has been rated slightly above Johnson by some recruiting services. Morgan was recruited by John Groce and has committed to play in the Big Ten at Illinois. Here's what Cincinnati.com says about the last time these two teams met:

@akronzips71, even if you're not an attorney, 30 years in the Queens Supreme Court in just about any capacity should give you a lot more experience in making educated guesses about court cases than the average guy on the street.

With the Zips' recent problems, I haven't been paying too much attention to RPI. But the results of other games involving teams the Zips have played have moved their RPI rank back up to #51 from down around #60 after the Can't loss. The only value of RPI now will be in NCAA tournament seeding if the Zips W2@Q. Also, Ken Pomeroy has crunched the numbers on the MAC tournament, and they show the Zips having the best chance to win (45.8%), followed by OU (37.3%), Can't (10.1%) and WMU (4.7%). But, the computers do not count the problem at PG, which KenPom addresses in his analysis:

Bracketology footnote: Fox Sports ranks the Zips #2 in their list of Teams That Need Big Conference Tournaments:

@akronzips71, I really appreciate you sharing your professional expertise on this issue. I've read a lot about this case, and the media stories are all light on fine details. I've also heard some things through various non-media sources. The more I hear the more puzzled I am by the whole situation. It's possible that we may be surprised when more facts come out. I hope you will continue to share your expertise on this type of situation as more developments take place.

Other teams besides the Zips are in trouble, so much so that the Zips have actually moved up in the Bracket Matrix from the top #13 seed to the bottom #12 seed. Needless to say, that's based on W2@Q, as the Zips have been dropped from most bubble watches due to losing 2 games plus losing Rico. Interestingly, the Bracket Matrix has been modified to include only 79 bracketology sites instead of the previous 91. Of the current 79 sites, 75 still project the Zips as the MAC representative while 4 predict OU. The Zips' previously most optimistic bracketologist -- Team Rankings -- has dumped the Zips in a big way. They now project OU as the MAC entry with the bottom #15 seed.

B.J. Gladden's Olympic team has made it to the North Carolina HS championship game after winning its semi-final by 5 points in their toughest game of the year so far.

@UAZip0510, I think you may have set a model with this thread for what might make ZN.o a more enjoyable place for more forum members. The main thread about Rico's issue had become numbingly negative. I thought that was the only place where discussion on the subject was going on until I discovered this positive thread. I give a lot of credit to the moderators for helping keep this thread focused on the positive and directing negative comments to the other thread. I see the same thing happening when the Zips eventually lose this season. Some will want to focus on the negative and dump their unhappiness on everyone else, while others will want to celebrate what was accomplished and look forward to next season. It seems that these two concepts have difficulty coexisting in one thread. Maybe if ZN.o had separate negative and positive threads on controversial subjects, everyone would be happier. It might even encourage more new forum members to participate in the discussions. Personally, I have no problem reading opinions that differ from mine. But I come here for enjoyable and informative discussion, not to feel like I'm visiting an asylum for the terminally depressed. Let's have more separate negative and positive threads in the future and see how it works out.

@I speak truth, I don't think it's really hating on Deji. Coach Dambrot said earlier this season that Deji was still a year away from being a good player. Deji has amazing physical abilities, but is taking time to develop the skills required to make those physical abilities pay dividends for the team. What everyone is worried about is that the Zips have no margin for error right now. They need the best performance from everyone on the floor to reach their goal of going to the NCAA tournament and winning games there. One mistake in the MAC tournament could be the difference between winning and losing. Deji has just not yet reached the point where he can be relied on not to make errors that his teammates would be less likely to make. Coach Dambrot understands this and will do the right thing regardless of what anyone here says.

I'll repeat what I said earlier. Walsh began last season as the Zips' backup PG, but was unable to adequately fill the role when Rico was having his knee problem. That resulted in Deji's redshirt being burned and trying him at the point. That didn't work, either. That's how Q ended up being the backup PG last season. Even though he had no experience at that position, Q developed over the course of many games into a decent backup PG. The Zips do not have a number of games to develop someone with no experience at the point into an adequate backup. There's only one player other than Melo on the current Zips' roster who played the point at a high level in HS, including a state championship game exactly one year ago, and that's Reggie McAdams. Anyone other than Reggie is a wild gamble considering that a single loss sends the Zips to the NIT instead of the NCAA tournament.

Walnut Hills won again today. So far in 4 playoff games Isaiah has averaged 17.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. He's 31-43 from the field for a 72% field goal shooting average.

@Dr Z, those 4 photos of BJ are all linked from the CharlotteObserver.com site at this link. The photographer is Jeff Siner (jsiner@charlotteobserver.com).

Nyles Evans scored 27 points (including 4-6 3-pointers) on an injured ankle last night in an upset of favored Chipola College, carrying his Brevard Community College Team to the Division 8 championship game tonight against College of Central Florida, which is ranked #8 in the nation. The winner of tonight's game will earn a berth in the March 18-23 NJCAA Division I national championship tournament in Hutchinson, Kansas. Story Link

Fearless predictions: Pat Forsythe will develop quickly once he's the center of attention (pun intended) of the coaching staff, begins practicing with next season's starters and gets regular, long game minutes. Isaiah will be able to step right in as a serviceable backup at center, but will probably not average much different PT from Pat's 12 minutes per game this season. Kwan Cheatham is a classic late bloomer who recently underwent a major growth spurt. Although his senior HS season is finished, he's still only 17 and could still add a couple of more inches to his lean 6-9 frame. Kwan may be a good candidate for redshirting and a serious weight training program, barring something unforeseen happening with one of the other bigs (injury, etc.). We'll see how good my crystal ball is in November.

BJ will look good performing like this in blue and gold:

@Mally Mall, many thanks for that link to that outstanding story. BJ is sounding more and more like a future Zips star. I'd say there's zero chance that he would be considered for a redshirt. BJ appears to be ready to step right in and immediately fill the vacancy left behind by Chauncey Gilliam's graduation. It sounds as if he has the ability Chauncey has shown at times to hit from the outside or fly above the rim, with the added talent of strong rebounding technique. I can't wait to see him play.

I'm going to stay out of this one.

I recall earlier in the season when the Bobkitties had a 3-game stretch where they averaged in the low 20% range in 3-point shooting. Most teams go through periods like this. Illinois had an even longer stretch of games where their 3-point shooting was abysmal. Coach Dambrot has a pretty strong history of getting his players ready to step it up a notch or two at the Q. I expect this season to be no different.

@MommaZeke is one smart lady. I sure do hope that getting Melo more hydrated will help him avoid the cramps. But I also saw him fairly early in the game down on his haunches in the middle of the court trying to catch his breath. I just don't see a 9-minute per game backup PG who's obviously not in physical condition to play long minutes suddenly becoming fully effective for more than about 20 minutes per game. Even if he doesn't cramp up, he'll still get winded, and that will likely lead to careless errors. Here's the way I see each position's starter, backup and approximate minutes at the Q: Zeke ~30; Forsythe ~10 Tree ~35; Kretzer ~5 Harney >20; Kretzer/Gilliam <20 Walsh ~25; Kretzer/Gilliam ~15; Deji if needed Melo ~20; McAdams ~20 McAdams running the point has some major potential benefits to the team. At 6-7, he's a nightmare matchup for opponents. He'll have great court vision over shorter opposing guards. If they lay off of him at all, he can pop up at any time and shoot the 3. If opponents put their tallest guard on him, that puts their shorter guard on the Zips' taller shooting guard. At least one time this season I want to see on the floor at the same time 6-7 McAdams at the 1, 6-7 Kretzer at the 2, 6-8 Harney at the 3, 6-7 Tree at the 4 and 7-0 Zeke at the 5.

Harney can bring the ball upcourt in a pinch. But he's not a great ball distributor, and his outside shot is not reliable. He would have a rough time at the point. Walsh usually has a good outside shot (though not tonight). But he has no history of playing the point and is uncomfortable doing it. Coach Dambrot tried Walsh at the point last season when Abreu's knee was injured, and it did not work. That's what resulted in Deji's redshirt being burned. But Deji is not effective at the point, either. By process of elimination, McAdams is the logical backup at the point. He played PG (or point forward) in HS, including the state championship game in which he almost singlehandedly shot and dished out enough assists to nearly lead his team to victory over a powerhouse team that just barely squeaked out the win. Melo showed tonight that he can't play much more than 20 minutes without cramping up. The Zips desperately need an effective backup PG for the Q. It's a really tough challenge for anyone to take on with just a week of practice. If it's anyone other than McAdams I will be shocked.

I had to look up the numbers on turnover percentage to get a feel for just how good McAdams is at maintaining possession. Reggie's current turnover percentage is 5.6, which is 5.6 turnovers per 100 team possessions during the time he's on the floor. How good is that? If he had enough playing minutes to qualify among the national stat leaders, his 5.6 rate would make him the #5 best player in the country. The bottom line is that Reggie is one of the most reliable ball handlers in college basketball. Melo showed tonight that he is physically incapable of going from averaging 9 minutes per game to the 27 minutes he played tonight. His body just wouldn't take the long minutes. He cramped up 3 times and had to be carried back to the locker room. I don't believe that he can effectively play the point for much more than about 20 minutes per game, and he will have to play back-to-back games at the Q. Deji is not effective at PG. The Zips need to find someone who can backup Melo at the Q for up to 20 minutes per game. I think McAdams may be the best option. The Zips have a week of practice to figure it out.

About 24 hours after the Zips learned they would be without their starting PG, they tried to patch together a lineup that would be effective, and they came oh so close. Melo gave his best effort. But the true freshman who had only been averaging 9 minutes per game was not physically up to the long minutes. He cramped up 3 times, and on the 3rd time they had to carry him back to the locker room. His body was just not able to keep up with what his heart was trying to will it to do. Deji is just not an effective PG. It was a lot to ask of everyone who tried a minute or two at the point. And even with all that, the Zips win going away if they just hit their average shooting percentage. Poor shooting on top of the turmoil at PG was the final nail in the coffin. All the players deserve great credit for the effort they put forth. The crowd was magnificent. They were in it all the way and the JAR was rocking. The Zips now have a week to figure out who can play how many minutes at the point and be effective doing it. A week of practice can make a big difference, both physically and mentally. I have no doubt in my mind that this team can still W2@Q. It won't be easy, but it is within reach. It will take better coordination among the players, and a week of practice will help a lot there. It will take better shooting, for sure. But I'm not sure how much more effort the players can put out at the Q, because they were giving a lot tonight. Tree was almost superhuman at times. At one point he had to go to the bench for a concussion examination because he hit his head on the floor so hard that he was dazed. But he came back in and kept giving his all. The loss stings. But the season isn't over yet.

If the offense should happen to be a little off due to the absence of the starting PG, the difference can be made up on defense. Great D and an average offense can win tonight's game.