Dave in Green

The at-large glimmer is so tiny that it's easy to ignore. Where the win over Can't may be more helpful is in seeding. Presuming that the Zips W2@Q, the selection committee would likely make them a #13 seed. But there is some chance at getting a #12 if the Zips win out from here, depending on what happens to some other teams between now and Selection Sunday. So in that sense the Can't game is still important to win even beyond the importance of the rivalry.

@skip-zip, first I want to say that even though you and I have disagreed on some things, I really appreciate that you are a longtime loyal Zips fan who would think to start a thread like this. In my case, I didn't really start following the Zips until I moved to Akron and Coach Huggins was here. At the time I worked for Goodyear and was on the road a lot, so I didn't get to see a lot of games. I missed the 1986 championship celebration game. As to why I didn't take the time to stay after last night's game, I'm just not personally big on celebrations in general. It takes something really special to motivate me to want to stay behind and savor the moment. I've done it for the Zips at the Q, and hope to do it again this year. If I can get to a Zips NCAA tournament game and they win, I'll want to stay behind and savor that win even longer. But I'm happy for you and other Zips fans who stayed behind last night and enjoyed the regular season championship celebration.

Pretty good and fairly enthusiastic crowd for a Miami game. Not much to get excited about other than another win. The Zips looked good at times but had too many lapses. The Zips' pressure D just wasn't working very well against Miami, which got a lot of easy points from breaking the press. I was surprised they stuck with it for so long when it obviously was not that effective. On the other hand, I expected the Zips to be able to handle Miami's press as they've shown they could do against other teams this season. But it gave them more trouble than I expected. In the end, the Zips scored a fairly uninspiring victory. But they'll need to raise their level of play a couple of steps above this on Friday as Can't has been steadily improving and will not go down as easily as Miami.

@Captain Kangaroo, there has obviously been a misunderstanding. It wasn't clear to me from your original post that you meant to say that Harney's free throw shooting has been sub-par over his last dozen or so attempts. I interpreted you to say that his free throw shooting was sub-par period. I completely agree with your assessment that Harney's free throw shooting has been sub-par over the last few games. My apologies for anything I may have done to add to the confusion. That was certainly not my intent.

Wow, and here I always thought that knowledgeable Zips fans would want to be made aware when their observations and opinions didn't align with real world facts. Seems kind of odd to want to encourage observations and opinions that are not supported by factual data.

@BirdZip, Nick hurt his shooting arm in the second half of the NDSU game, and was on the bench in great pain for quite awhile. When he returned to the court, he was fouled and tried to shoot two free throws. They both fell way short of the rim due to his still hurting shooting arm. Coach Dambrot took him out of the game after that, and he didn't return. That may be a partial explanation for his poor free throw shooting in the last few games.

Nick is currently hitting 70% of his free throws, fifth best on the team. Since 1965, the annual average free throw shooting percentage for all college players has ranged from 67-69%. It has never reached 70%. So it's fair to say that Nick is slightly above average for all college players, He's even more above average if you consider only forwards, who typically hit a lower percentage of their free throws than guards.

I just did a quick internet search, and 18 inches appears to be the bare minimum for modern arena/stadium seats, with 19-21 inches considered to be more comfortable for typical American-size bodies. I also found a story on stadiums and arenas that gives a really good analysis of seating arrangements for a modern arena in plain English.

@HS Stripes, and what you say is also verified by the following part of the NYT article: ..... Butler’s athletic director, Barry Collier, said Gonzaga provided the model for these midmajor-to-just-major transformations. The Zags showed universities that could not invest as heavily or at all in big-time football that in basketball, at the right place, under the right circumstances, with the right resources, it could be done, and without the raft of early departures suffered by the more established programs. Butler even advanced to the championship game, twice, bolstering the trend. “You don’t necessarily have to match every dollar,” Collier said. “You have to be in the neighborhood in order to consistently compete. That comes with a cost, but you have to be willing to invest to expect anything sustainable. That’s an important philosophic position.” .....

Detroit is ranked second only to Valparaiso in the Horizon League tournament, according to KenPom.

On modifying the Missouri State arena design to suit the Zips, I'd rather see them remove rows starting from the top down until they hit the magic number. I also wouldn't mind seeing the pitch be a little steeper on the lower sections like the pitch on the higher sections. Keep the focus on getting as many people as close as possible to the court for maximum crowd noise and intimidation factor.

@RootforRoo44, Bleacher Report has been updating its mid-major top 10 weekly. The link changes, so you can't use the same link. The last one was Feb. 27 (after OU in Athens but before Buffalo), and had the Zips #5. Here's the link for Feb. 27.

Here's something to file away for future at-large discussions. Jerry Palm tweets that the lowest number of top 100 wins he can find for any team that received an at-large bid is three, and that last happened in 2003. So it's probably safer to consider four top 100 wins a bare minimum for serious consideration. The Zips currently have four top 100 wins, and the only way they can get five is to beat OU in the MAC tournament championship, at which point they wouldn't need to be worried about an at-large bid.

@HS Stripes, the NYT article discusses why Monson left Gonzaga, and how that caused Gonzaga's administration to realize they needed to increase their commitment and resources available to the basketball program to make sure that they held on to their next head coach (Few): ..... “I look back and I think about just how naïve we were,” said Monson, who is now the coach at Long Beach State. “I had to end every press conference by reminding people how to pronounce Gonzaga. We had police escorts. Someone asked if we would go on Letterman or Leno. Matt Santangelo said we were more of a Jerry Springer-type team.” That off-season, Monson left for Minnesota despite a slew of starters slated to return. He cried when he called Calvary, but the dollars were so different, the gulf in resources so wide, that Monson thought he had no choice. “That forced the administration to take a long look at why he’d leave,” Calvary said. “I know they had some closed-door meetings.” .....

The 2006-2007 Zips team finished the regular season with a 24-6 record (before going 2-1 at the Q). If the current team wins its final two home games, it will finish the regular season at 25-5 while playing a significantly higher SOS. Winning the MAC regular season championship and finishing with a better record while playing a stronger schedule would make this season's team a better regular season team. What would clearly make this team superior would be adding the MAC tournament championship to the regular season championship, and adding NCAA tournament wins for good measure. But I still fondly remember that 2006-2007 team as a tough and gritty bunch of players. The current team still has things to prove.

There are two things that we used to read about all the time on ZN.o -- that Coach Dambrot rewards guys who play hard and smart defense in games with more playing time, and that he rewards guys who play hard in practice with more game time. Unless Coach Dambrot has undergone a philosophical change over the past few years, these two points should still be valid. This is something to consider when wondering why some current players get more PT than others. Situations change, and some players may practice and play their way into more PT while others may practice and play themselves out of PT. Maybe we'll see some changes tomorrow night.

Better news in the Mid-Major Power Pyramid, where the Zips only fall to #4 after their loss: 4. Akron (23-5). Why it's here: I can't be expected to downgrade a team because it has a 19-game winning streak come to an end with a road loss in the conference. Akron fell 81-67 at Buffalo on Saturday, possibly taking the Zips out of the at-large picture. Keith Dambrot's team is in the 40s in RPI. If it reaches the MAC title game, the discussion will get interesting. I think if it loses close in the final, it's getting to Dayton for the First Four. And won't that be an interesting scenario. Zips fans will flood the place. Something you should know: I've got a story on Akron coming to the site later Monday. Figured, instead of a stat to know here, I'd go anecdotal/inside hoops. Dambrot told me this of the streak: when it was 19 games long and before the team lost to Buffalo, there wasn't pressure. He also maintains that his 2006-07 Akron team that missed the NCAAs and went 26-7 was his best. Said this team can pass that but isn't there yet. Jerry Palm says: A No. 13 seed in the South. (Last week: No. 12 in the East)

As expected, the Zips fell out of the top 25 in the Coaches Poll, falling to #35 with just 6 votes. The Zips fell back to #36 in the AP Poll, getting only 4 votes. This time it's Louisiana Tech's turn to get screwed. Despite winning 2 games last week and now having the nation's longest winning streak at 18, Tech fell out of the top 25 to #27 as bigger name schools also won and moved past them.

Word from the JAR today is that the players are extremely displeased that Buffalo broke their winning streak, and they're intensely focused on starting a new winning streak tomorrow night that will run well into the post-season.

The Zips deserve praise for increasing their OOC SOS every season. RPI Forecast currently projects that at the end of the regular season, the Zips will have the #50 most difficult OOC SOS of 347 D-I teams. So this season the Zips have cracked the top 50. VCU and Butler are two teams on the Gonzaga path. VCU's final OOC SOS is projected at #56 and Butler's at #46. So the Zips' OOC SOS this season is already in line with two Gonzaga-like teams. The team plan all along has been to ramp up OOC SOS each season along with bringing in higher level players who are more capable of beating higher level opponents. The Zips have been delivering on that, and the future plan is to keep building up in both areas. There's no reason to keep dogging the Zips to raise the level of their OOC SOS. They've been doing it, they're doing it right now and they will continue to do it in the future.

Correction to my post above. I could swear that Team Rankings showed Butler as a #6 seed last night. But this morning Butler is shown as a #10. My browser cache probably needed to be cleared from an earlier viewing of the site. Three other bracketology sites also project Butler as a #10 seed, while most sites have them in the #5 to #8 range, and above the Zips.

The lead story in the Sunday New York Times sports section this morning reminded me of a discussion we've had on this forum many times in the past: Wouldn't it be great if UA could become the Gonzaga of the East in college basketball? Unfortunately, the NYT story brings out the same realities we've found in the past -- that the level of commitment and resources required to do this exceeds anything anyone could reasonably expect UA to put into its basketball program. The NYT story, headlined Nothing 'Mid' About Gonzaga, is well worth reading in its entirety. I'll include a few quotes from the story and a link to the online version below: ..... At this small Catholic university in the Lilac City, Few did something many deemed impossible at the outset: he constructed a major program in a midmajor place, one that should, with its win Saturday against Portland, ascend to the No. 1 overall ranking this week for the first time. The Bulldogs host opponents in their palatial arena and travel by private jet. Their staff budget and recruiting budget and Nike shoe contract are, if not on the same block, at least in the same neighborhood as bigger universities, in major conferences, with longer histories, more tradition. ..... ..... In the ensuing years, Gonzaga (29-2, 16-0) helped transform college basketball, which seems as balanced now as ever. Some of that depth resulted from programs that followed the Gonzaga blueprint, that turned jobs once considered steppingstones into destinations. Think Butler with Brad Stevens, Virginia Commonwealth with Shaka Smart or New Mexico with Steve Alford. Butler’s athletic director, Barry Collier, said Gonzaga provided the model for these midmajor-to-just-major transformations. The Zags showed universities that could not invest as heavily or at all in big-time football that in basketball, at the right place, under the right circumstances, with the right resources, it could be done, and without the raft of early departures suffered by the more established programs. Butler even advanced to the championship game, twice, bolstering the trend. “You don’t necessarily have to match every dollar,” Collier said. “You have to be in the neighborhood in order to consistently compete. That comes with a cost, but you have to be willing to invest to expect anything sustainable. That’s an important philosophic position.” ..... ..... When guard Kevin Pangos grew up in Canada, his mother regularly picked the Zags in the family tournament pool and often won. When Calvary played in Japan, the malls there carried Bulldogs jerseys. Several former players, including Ronny Turiaf and Robert Sacre and Austin Daye, play in the N.B.A. The growth allowed Gonzaga to strengthen its nonconference schedule, so much so that Few joked that the Zags “can easily schedule ourselves into an eight-game losing streak.” This season, Gonzaga beat Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Clemson, Baylor, Washington State and West Virginia, all programs with which it matches wits — and resources. ..... ..... The current Gonzaga team is, in Few’s words, the most balanced he has ever coached. Its leading scorer, Kelly Olynyk, whom Few described as “cerebral” and “deliberate,” redshirted after his sophomore season and returned with a post game to match his size. Its roster features players from Canada, France, Germany and Poland. Its rotation includes a former walk-on (Mike Hart), the son of a local legend (David Stockton, son of John) and two 7-footers, Olynyk included. ..... Story Link

Team Rankings currently shows Butler as a #6 seed, which is the same seed they have as the average of all 96 projections in the Bracket Matrix. Of course a #9 is way optimistic for the Zips. Out of 91 sites listed in the Bracket Matrix, there's only one #9 and one #10 for the Zips. The other sites all show the Zips as a #11, #12 or #13. The average of all 91 seeds for the Zips is 12.39, and the Matrix currently shows the Zips as the top #13. If the Zips can win out from here, they will have a fair shot at moving up to a #12. The current #5 seeds in the Matrix are tOSU, Oklahoma State, St. Louis and UNLV.

I know we're all bummed out over the Zips loss, and some bracketologists may drop the Zips down a seed. But there's one little bright spot. The Team Rankings computers have consistently given the Zips the highest seed of all the bracketology websites. When they crunched all the numbers after all of yesterdays games, the Zips ended the day holding on to their projected #9 seed. It's hard to understand how this would happen except for the fact that their computers were already projecting that the Zips would have one more regular season loss, and the loss to Buffalo merely confirmed their statistical projection that the Zips were likely to be upset once. It did not change their opinion of how highly the Zips should be ranked. So no one should believe that this loss will suddenly cause the Zips to fall off the face of the earth. Remember that other teams are also being upset.

Sorry I couldn't be here tonight with the rest of you loyal Zips fans. Had a family engagement I had to attend. Recorded the game on DVR but will probably not watch it. The great ride had a little detour tonight. Many of you have mentioned different reasons, and it was probably a little of each. But all I've been reading all season is that this is the college basketball season of crazy upsets, so why should the Zips be immune? Like the rest of you, I'm really disappointed. But I still love this team, all that they've accomplished so far and all that they can still accomplish. It's been fun tracking all the national attention and pondering the percentages of an at-large bid. The Zips will now fall out of view for awhile on the national stage. But this loss does not mean that all the media will stop believing that the Zips have a good shot at an NCAA tournament run. The only difference now is that there is no more chance of an at-large bid, and we're back to where we're used to being -- W2@Q. The Zips first have to win two home games against teams they match up against better than they do Buffalo to clinch the regular season MAC championship for a second straight season. They need to get their mojo back in these next two games before heading back to the Q. I'll be at the JAR next week yelling as loud as ever. See you there.