Dave in Green

Over the previous 5 seasons, one MAC team has set an example for the conference, focusing not on the regular season but on the MAC tournament. We all know that the Zips have never won the MAC regular season championship, but have made it to the MAC tournament championship game 5 straight seasons. This season the Zips aren't sneaking up on anyone. They've taken control of regular season conference play as other teams have done in the past. While the Zips have won the MAC tournament championship 3 of the previous 5 seasons, Can't won 3 of 5 regular season championships and had the best overall conference record over those 5 seasons. This season the Zips will almost certainly enter the MAC tournament as undisputed regular season champions and favorites to win the tournament. Problem is, the favorite team has won the MAC tournament only once in the last 5 seasons -- Can't in 2007-2008. Over the past 5 seasons Can't has dominated regular season conference play and the Zips have dominated the MAC tournament. No one should be under the illusion that the roles couldn't be reversed this season. Regardless of regular season results, Can't is one of several MAC teams that could get on a roll in the tournament. The Zips will have to be at their best to replicate what Can't last accomplished in 2007-2008 -- winning both the regular season conference and tournament championships.

Can't ain't what they used to be. But the way BG blew them out reinforces the impression of how good BG looked against the Zips. As we get closer to the MAC tournament, it appears that some teams are peaking while others are tanking.

@akronzips71 and @Quickzips, I get where you're both coming from, and I don't think you're too far apart. I think what's happening here is that we're in the unexpected position of having a 3-game lead for the MAC regular season championship with 3 games to go, we're not used to being here and we're all a little disoriented. I think we just need to get used to the fact that it's all good right now, and all hold hands and sing and dance. Sooner or later something will go wrong, and then we can all go after each other.

Not that it means much to Zips fans. But there's yet another barn burner in the MAC West. BSU leads EMU at halftime, 22-20.

Buffalo wins, 84-74.

Buffalo starting to pull away at the end -- 69-60 with 3 minutes left.

@k s u sucks, never give up on presenting new ideas, no matter how negative the responses might seem. It's important for all aspects of any situation to be brought forward and considered, and those presenting one side should not be discouraged by those presenting the other. It's always possible that something could be done. But unless someone gets the ball rolling as you did, the possibilities tend not to be explored. I have a reserved seat in the 7th row of the upper section. Except for the railing and the people walking on the "track" during the game, the view isn't that bad. I've also sat in the 11th row of the upper section, and the view isn't terrible from up there. So I'd guess only the last few rows are not so good from the sides. I haven't sat in the upper section at the ends, so I can't say what the view is like from there. But it seems to me that the really enthusiastic student basketball fans might want to come to the JAR a little early to grab seats in the lower rows of the upper end sections. If the most enthusiastic students end up together, maybe that will encourage more noise. Maybe you could use that as leverage to convince UA to experiment with a small student section in the lower section. I don't think UA is going to throw away potential revenue from premium seats hoping that students will show up and fill those seats and make enough noise to make it worthwhile. I think it's up to the students to prove what they'd do with such a section by putting on a "performance" in the seats they already have access to. In other words, get together and make something happen as a proof of concept.

Fresh off their upset of Can't, Miami is hanging with Buffalo 33-33 at the half.

@k s u sucks, my point was that the folks who pay for the lower level chairbacks pay a pretty stiff premium in exchange for sitting close to the court and having the best view in the house. I don't think "most" or even many of them would be willing to continue paying the same high premium price for less premium seats. So if your plan is to clear a bunch of them out to make room for students, the plan should also include an offset to make up for the reduced income the basketball team would generate by virtue of fewer people willing to pay a premium price for less desirable seats.

I'm thinking you have a different definition of "whistle happy" than I do.

I'm guessing you're not an economics major.

If we say we want to clinch it at the JAR, aren't we saying that we want the Zips to lose in Athens?

Good thread. If we dump on the refs who are whistle happy, we should give credit to the good ones. So let's give a tip of the hat to these three refs -- one who mainly covers Horizon/MAC games, one who mostly does Big Ten/Summit, and one who's primarily Summit/MAC: Bryan Anslinger Mike Sanzere Lamont Simpson

That would be page 5 (University Square District) on the document @zippy5 posted the link to. That's the area that's actually between Exchange and Wheeler. If a new arena were to be built directly across Exchange from Infocision Stadium with a parking deck next to it, the parking deck could also serve Zips football, which could have a shortage of parking places if Coach Bowden gets them winning and people actually start showing up in numbers for the football games.

Thanks for the map. If you really mean page 7 (South of Exchange District), Wheeler Street ends at the west edge of the UA campus and doesn't run through the South of Exchange District. So you must mean between Exchange and some street other than Wheeler. The problem I see with the South of Exchange District is that it's getting a little far from campus to encourage students to attend basketball games, especially when we're having a winter like last year rather than the current one. I still believe if it ends up being a joint city/university arena as opposed to an on-campus UA arena, it really needs to be right on the western edge of the UA campus. The JAR is right on the eastern edge of the campus, and student turnout for basketball games is still disappointing. A longer walk to the arena is going to hurt student turnout even more.

Exactly where between Exchange and Wheeler is that retail/residential mecca supposed to go? I've just been looking at the whole area from an aerial view, and it's pretty built up. The only way you put up anything new is to tear things down. An arena would eat up a large part of a square block, and then you'd need a big parking deck as well, which could take up another square block. You'd have to tear down several square blocks of existing structures to fit everything in that area. Then you'd need some kind of buffer zone between the residential part and the arena part, because having an arena in your backyard doesn't exactly make for a warm and cozy neighborhood. Is there any place online where I can see a graphic of what's planned for that area?

In addition to hearing before the game that Tree was under the weather, I've since heard that Zeke and Gilliam were also not 100%. I had noticed during the game that Zeke looked pretty winded, especially in the second half when after being fouled he was squatting on his haunches at the free throw line waiting for the ref to throw him the ball. Rico's game also looked a little off, especially on defense. I haven't heard anything about him being ill. But it's possible that all the players were exposed to a virus and many were suffering at least mild symptoms. If true, then the Zips' performance was more impressive than I first thought.

The Zips do have something at stake. They need to keep winning to try to earn the highest possible seed in the NCAA tournament. And they need tough games to toughen them up for both the MAC and NCAA tournaments. The Zips have no more easy games this season. They need to learn how to string together a series of wins over tough teams.

Hey, I'm sorry it wasn't clear that my post was intended to be in good humor. We've had a lot of back and forth over the years on the value of stats, and I thought it was all in good humor. Please let me explain. I understood your previous post to say that you should trust your eyes and not stats. I have a good friend in California who's a professional magician performing at the Magic Castle in Hollywood. When I visit him there and try to figure out how he does his sleight of hand, he always tells me to stop trying to analyze it and just trust my eyes. Of course, magicians always tell you to trust your eyes because magicians are trained to trick your eyes into believing something they didn't really see. So when I saw your line about trusting your eyes, it reminded me of my old magician friend and I had to laugh. That, in turn, reminded me of the old joke about the reliability of going with your gut because you can always be sure of what it's full of. I wasn't trying to twist your words at all. It was just a case of one good joke leading to another. Anyway, I know you know that statistical analysis is important in sports and that it's now used extensively by many winning coaches. I take your stated denial of this on ZN.o as humor and respond to it with humor. I hope that clears the air.

I prefer the old line about the reliability of going with your gut because you can always be sure of what it's full of. But since I have an aversion to what the gut is full of, I'm stuck with trying to make sense of those silly numbers that don't mean anything. The silliest stat of all is the final score. What kind of BS is that about the team with the most points always winning?

Heard before the game that Tree was feeling terrible and might not be able to play. Sure enough, he didn't come out with the team for final warmups. Then he appeared on the bench, sitting by himself and drinking lots of fluids. I was surprised when he subbed in. You could tell it really affected his game, too. He was only 5-5 from the field with a couple of rebounds and a timely block. I've got to give him a lot of credit for playing hard while under the weather. BG deserves some credit, too. They brought their best game and didn't go down easily. They were pesky on defense and on offense they were hitting tough shots. Zips finally took care of business in the end and turned it on in the last minute or two against a team that shouldn't have been that close in the first place. That strategy didn't work against ORU, and it probably won't work against OU, Buffalo and Can't. Time for the Mississippi State/Marshall version of the Zips to start showing up at the rest of the games this season. Take control early and don't let the other guys back in the game.

@BirdZip, you make some really good points. I'll try to explain in a little greater detail how I interpret Nitro's stats: * Last season, Nitro started all 36 games, averaging 26 minutes per game and 38.9% on 3-point shooting -- 4th best 3-point shooting in the MAC and 104th best in the country. * This season, Nitro started the first 8 games, averaging 29 minutes per game and 38.7% on 3-point shooting -- comparable to last season. * Beginning with the 9th game, he was moved from starter to sub and had his PT significantly reduced. * Over the last 19 games, Nitro averaged 17.4 minutes per game and 26.2% on 3-point shooting -- an abrupt drop in both minutes and shooting percentage, not a gradual decline. * In his first 2 seasons, Nitro came off the bench and played limited minutes, averaging 33.3% on 3-point shooting as a sub both seasons. * In his 3rd season, his 3-point percentage went up significantly along with his starter status and minutes per game. * In his 4th season, he continued shooting roughly the same 3-point percentage in the first 8 games where he continued as a starter playing long minutes as he did as a junior. * When he was relegated back to his freshman/sophomore status of playing shorter minutes off the bench, his 3-point shooting average almost immediately fell back even lower than his freshman/sophomore seasons. Now, anyone is free to draw any conclusions they want from this. We all have access to the numbers, but none of us knows all the peripheral factors involved. My personal opinion is that it relates to Brian Walsh going from sub to starter at the same time that Nitro went from starter to sub. Walsh has turned out to be a more effective all-around backcourt player than Nitro, not only hitting 3s at a higher percentage but doing other things more consistently, such as rebounding and playing defense. I believe that Nitro is at his best as a starter playing long minutes and not so good as a sub playing shorter minutes off the bench, as his career stats attest. Problem is, he's not as effective as Walsh, whose stats show that he is more productive both off the bench and as a starter than Nitro. From my perspective, it's a shame that Nitro cannot seem to perform at as high a level as a sub as he did as a starter last season and the beginning of this season. The influx of new and talented players this season may be great for the Zips as a team. But the guy who's suffering most is Nitro. I think he's become discouraged and that his performance is suffering for it. Anyway, that's my theory based on the numbers, the trends and what I've seen. I'd be interested in hearing other theories.

RE: MAC Coach of the Year If, and it's a BIG IF, the Zips win their next 4 games, they'd finish with a 15-1 conference record. That would be the best record in the MAC since Can't went 17-1 in the 2001-2002 season. If that happens and KD doesn't win the award, then I'll apply for official membership in the Conspiracy Against Akron Club.

Even with the ORU loss, Live RPI this morning has the Zips right back at #61 -- same as before the ORU game. If the Zips win the rest of their games, their RPI should rise up close to #50. depending on what happens to teams ahead of them. That may be enough to earn them a #13 seed. If the Zips lose any more games, they probably lose any chance of moving up beyond a #14.

The broad season trend is all that's required to show the connection between average PT and average shooting percentage over the course of a season. Statistically, the finer game-to-game ups and downs are not particularly relevant to the season trend. In this case we can look at the average PT and shooting percentage trend lines over the course of two seasons, and they track pretty closely. I'm not aware of any existing charts that include all the fine detail you are requesting. But if you really want to dig in and analyze it on a game-by-game, shot-by-shot basis, have at it. All the tools are on StatSheet.com. All it takes is time and someone who believes that doing all that work would be a productive use of their time.