I'm not sure I'm ready to put BG at #3. They have 9 wins, but look at their schedule. Until I see them win some conference games, I'd be more worried about Kent and Ohio.
For that to be true, we'd have to have a number of additional wins. Being 22-9 or 21-10 is basically the same thing. The MAC team is getting a 13 or 14 seed. You'd need several more wins to change that.
Losing 4 is much different than losing 11. Seven of those losses are by eights points or more. Even if you say that is a tough schedule, I would say Buffalo is a bad team.