SBZipfan

I did not know that! I like it even more now. Why not??? They're both in the top 8 of RPI. I almost put WMU in the final, then decided I didn't want to play them again ...

There is an annual bracket challenge at bigsoccer, but you have to fill out the entire bracket before Thurs: http://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/2017-ncaa-bracket-challenge.2078569 Here is the one I posted there: Columbia Butler Pacific Coastal Carolina UNCW SMU Fordham FIU Washington Wisconsin Massachusetts California Virginia Tech Maryland New Hampshire NC State Wake Forest VCU Stanford Clemson Akron Notre Dame Massachusetts California North Carolina Georgetown Virginia Duke Michigan State Western Michigan Dartmouth Indiana Wake Forest Stanford Akron California North Carolina Duke Western Michigan Indiana Stanford Akron Duke Western Michigan Akron Duke Akron

Well it was possible to hope for #4, but I think Louisville's case was a bit better than Akron's. Against the RPI top 25, Louisville was 4-1-2, including wins over #3 and #6, and Akron was 3-1, with the best win over #8. Akron also lost to #8, while Louisville's loss was to #1. Only ding against Louisville was that they had a recent "bad" loss to #45, whereas Arkon's "bad" losses were in the first two games of the season.

So our first two opponents will likely be Washington and ND, teams the Zips have already played (and beaten). Is that good or bad??

Full bracket, copied from a post by xpowerout at bigsoccer: (1) Wake Forest v. William & Mary*/Columbia (16) VCU v. Butler*/Lipscomb (9) Stanford v. Pacific*/Cal St. Fullerton (8) Clemson v. Coastal Carolina*/Mercer (5) Akron v. Washington*/Seattle (12) Notre Dame v. Wisconsin*/UIC (13) Michigan v. UMass*/Colgate (4) Louisville v. Cal*/San Francisco (3) UNC v. UNC Wilmington*/Presbyterian (14) Georgetown v. SMU*/Central Arkansas (11) Virginia v. Fordham*/St. Francis Brooklyn (6) Duke v. FIU*/Nebraska-Omaha (7) Michigan St. v. Virginia Tech*/Air Force (10) Western Michigan v. Maryland*/Albany (15) Dartmouth v. New Hampshire*/Fairfield (2) Indiana v. Old Dominion*/NC State

I agree with everything you say, TennZip! We'll soon find out if you're right ...

Akron jumps from #8 to #4 in the Massey computer ratings: https://www.masseyratings.com/csoc/ncaa-d1/ratings

The play-for-PK tactic makes sense if (1) you are the weaker team, and (2) a win on PKs is as good as a regular-time or OT win. Neither was true today for UVa. They had a man advantage, and a PK win went into the record as a tie.

No, it was on PKs. Wake got a red card in the first half, but UVa still played for a 0-0 tie. Really dumb idea. They finish #9 in RPI (since the game is officially a draw for RPI purposes), whereas a win would have put them at #7 (ahead of Akron), and a loss at something like #12. They game-planned their way out of a top-8 seed. Wisconsin also won on PKs. Indiana officially still undefeated.

Top 4 is not out of the question. I believe Wake, UNC, and IU are locks for top 4. Next in RPI are Duke, Louisville, Clemson, Akron, WMU, UVa, ND, Stanford, MSU. If you look at actual records, and weight towards recent results (which the committee seems to have done when they released their top 10 a couple of weeks ago), Akron could well come out on the top of this list.

GOAL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No issues with ESPN3 for me ...

I believe the highest possible RPI rank for Akron is #7. If the Zips beat WMU, I calculate their final RPI (including the max bonus of 0.0065 for a road win over a top team) as 0.6278. WMU's RPI, currently 0.6302, will drop with the loss to 0.6269 (or lower if there is a penalty for a home loss, which I don't know). Clemson is #6 at 0.6356, and their season is done. These calculations do not include shifts of SOS and OSS due to games played by opponents and opponents' opponents (too many possible cases to run through), but these should be minor effects. So that leaves Akron at #7. (This also assumes Wake beats Virginia in the ACC final; if Virginia wins, they will be above Akron also, and bump them down to #8. So root for Wake!)

The extra loss is the difference. Akron's winning percentage is 15.5/19 = 0.819, Stanford's is 15.5/18 = 0.861. A team's winning percentage is 1/4 of RPI, so the RPI difference from this is (1/4)(0.8611-0.8158)=0.0113. The actual RPI difference is much smaller, 0.6154-0.6116=0.0038. This is due to Akron's better strength of schedule. An Akron win over WMU will push them above Stanford (whose season is over).

You mean Akron won?? I was checking the video feed intermittently, saw the clock down to 2 minutes with the Zips down 1-0, and then the next time I checked the video feed was blank, so I just assumed they lost ... Came here to commiserate. Very glad to learn I was wrong!!!

Root for Wake & Notre Dame on Wednesday ...

Pac-12 does not have a conf tournament. Stanford's final game is a regular-season game against Cal on Nov.9. Stanford's schedule is weak, only one game against the RPI top-25 (a win over SMU). That's why their RPI is only #13. So I don't see them as a top-4 seed.

Last year 3 of the top 4 were ACC, the other was B1G: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NCAA_Division_I_Men's_Soccer_Championship

OK, now I think we need ND to keep winning, making the Zips win over them more important. Also, we don't want Virginia to move past the Zips in RPI. Ditto Michigan, so need to root against them also ... If the Zips win the MAC, I see a #8 seed as likely ...

Do not root for OSU! MSU is Akron's biggest win. We need MSU to do well.

Ouch! The Zips needed ND and Clemson to stop improving their RPI, and need MSU to do as well as possible.

That last one was sweet! I was only able to watch the live video intermittently, and missed it ... Congrats to the Zips on a great finish to the regular season! Now, on to the MAC championship and a top-8 seed in the NCAAs!

Link to game: http://www.espn.com/watch/player?id=3202587

Now #8 in RPI after the win over Marshall. RPI will take a small hit from playing (and beating) NIU. (I will not contemplate a loss!) With no other changes, that would drop the Zips to #9. A MAC-tournament win over WMU will likely keep the Zips in the top 8 in RPI if there are not a lot of upsets in other tournaments (especially ACC).

Alas, I don't think it's possible to change my uninspired username here ...