SwitchIt

Great win on Sunday!! Here is their most valuable asset, rising star and learned under Schellas Hyndman Very bright guy that probably gets more from his players than most could. Played fairly well to take a win at tough Denver home field in OT. Note they also play pretty tall, so expect high crosses. Most dangerous player is 6-3 Cichero, noted in above posting. Zips play relatively short in favor of quickness except Radjen and to an extent Dambrot, and most taller players on the roster tend to sit (Machione, Weidt, Kahsay, Rubio). SMU could produce another low scoring affair, and looking ahead to UNC/Creighton would be a serious mistake after a heady win against a tired Rutgers team that ran thru deep puddles in a double OT game in a monsoon a few nights earlier. No more easy games, SMU will be well prepared and rested. Hudson was a standout student-athlete with the Mustangs from 2000-03 and was a member of SMU's 2000 College Cup team. In 2003, Hudson was an NSCAA/adidas All-Midwest Region First Team selection, as well as an All-Missouri Valley Conference First Team honoree. During his senior season, he was named to CollegeSoccerNews.com's National Team of the Week on two occasions, and he was also selected as the MVC Tournament MVP that same season. Hudson was selected as the 44th pick by DC United in the 2004 MLS SuperDraft. For his efforts in the classroom, Hudson received CoSIDA Academic All-America First-Team honors, and was twice named to the MVC Scholar-Athlete squad. He also earned the MVC President's Academic Excellence award in 2001. Hudson graduated magna cum laude from SMU with a bachelor's degree in business administration (finance) and a bachelor's degree in psychology in May, 2004. Upon graduation, Hudson worked for Ernst & Young, LLP, as a senior auditor and transaction advisory specialist. Hudson graduated from University of Notre Dame magna cum laude with a master's degree in the science of accountancy (MSA) in August, 2005.

http://www.ncaa.com/live/player?vid=2015/2029 Seems to be over and not replaying. UCLA and Virginia unseeded. I am still speechless, NCCA has new darling non major, UA!!

That is truly amazing...ly good!!

Will be interesting show at noon. Agree with 7 or 8 with outlier that Creighton get in the second group and Akron gets 9 or 10 2 losses and possible 4 seed ahead of Gtown, but the loss to UCLA at home that also showed back line issues reemerge with Radjen out had put staff on search for a new combination at CB w Ruukak, tbd from what I see. Weidt latest stab at it, Clarke. Call it Fri Dec4 in Winston Salem will be a big date for the Zips as 8th seed at 1. You have to get there first, and beat them or Clemson at home most likely to get to the CC.

Thanks for the color on Pina. It was a bold move to switch right into the tournament but warranted if Pina had stopped putting in the effort or given up. Congrats to Jake for winning it from a YNT regular and top couple in the country kid coming in. That probably looked unlikely but he fought for it all year and won to the point the other left and sat a year, but that sitting for a year bothers me somehow and tells me there was something else going on off the field. Maybe his slip and fall from play at Akron was really tough and he considered not playing again, whether to finish schooling, etc. Unusual set of circumstances headed into the next 2 games for the opposition's GK. I always like to see what the head to head looks like starting from the net and then match ups at each side's best positions. Akron gets 2 passes this week. - WVU's Boener, probably the better of their 2 that have split time thus far got a red card v BG last game. Diaz is a JuCo transfer. - UCLA's Cervantes got a red in the tough 4-3 loss to Cal. Probably see Silva who has 3 games under his belt, and as RS Freshman from Atletico Madrid at 6-2 you might wonder why he did not win the spot, but they have very unusually played all 4 keepers this year so it must be a mess in the net, shown by the team .571 GAAvg In the case of BG, Heuton is pretty good and led the league last year in almost every per game stat, and at 6-3 around 190/200 has the frame. BG will be playing the last of 4 games in 12 days so I think other factors will play into this game. While they just won 2- 0 WVU, they tied lowly IUPUI and got blasted by Dayton 6-0 so it may be a soft landing for the last game of the RS. For Zips in Jake there is mention of him being like Meves as an expert shot blocker. Previous UA like Bush and Meves are pro level players, so unsure about the similarity to a degree but do agree it is the best part of his game by good measure. Zips usually don't get the check box at keeper when facing better opponents, and also lesser ones such as WMU, BG and even WVU in the MAC. The slight build and weak leg are one thing, but I also see goals that should not be given (late MSU, H1 WMU, good bunch earlier in season) mixed in with the better saves and you can't let those sorts in to progress in late Nov. I do agree with going with what you got in a sense, but some LBs and GK still give me pause. I think the doctor would still prescribe scoring 2-3 goals per contest and drink lots of fluids to get Dec dates

Earlier in the season there was talk about the back line + GK and possible changes that the staff could make to improve things pronto given +2GAA at the time. Changes were made on the line, and by a staff that does not like change with good results except unresolved LB. I agree that Niko, quick as he is, remains challenged at that position size wise. I wonder how Clarke looks out there, and could he be a menace running up in addition to known defending capabilities? As for GK I do not remember anyone ever saying much about Jake or keepers generally, and while he seems likable and hangs in there for the most part he was a probable career back up to Pina until he inexplicably left (does anyone know the real story there, seems Coastal likes him well enough) and has given a slew of weak goals this year capped by what the announcers described as 'horrible goal keeping' to take Zips 0-1 and 'very shaky' play afterwards, not forgetting to credit a solid last minute save to avoid losing a game he might have set the team up to lose in the H1. Comment by TennZip was does not have a strong leg. Yes, and is smallish in hands and arms as part of a slight build overall. WMU's Shepherd (6-3 205) is more prototypical, but then again some favor the smaller more nimble guy. MNT and Intl plays to 6-2 to 6-4 (except Rimando, always an exception it seems). Best collegiate the same. Embick apparently coached Farrell at Internationals DA, he went on to WF. Good size. Pina YNT top keeper, left and thriving at Coastal. Quickness and great reach. Rubio top DA prospect and still well regarded, no minutes, size and reach but lacks Pina like quickness. Now the stage is set and you have a single option, and if this keeps playing out the Zips will progress in the 3rd or 1/4s on the back of Richie and Adam, but risk falling on the sword of burned LB or GK give. I will close that by saying I thought ND 2013 Patrick Wall at about the same size would hinder the Irish's hopes of winning it all, but was wrong. (I still like this year's model Chris Hubbard 6-4 205 much better )

Where is Rau when you need him? 6-3 205 pretty agile Shepherd must have been injured last 3.5 games he was out. Seems to give the back line allot of confidence. Pretty good, he probably transfers to needy big program soon enough. Tough conditions for both guys today. "Drew Shepherd has allowed just one goal in eight games, spanning 605:00 minutes and is the nations leader for goals-against average (.149) as well as save percentage (.947)."

http://www.wmubroncos.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?&id=1513477&catid=0&KEY=&DB_OEM_ID=4600 Note: Flash player, can't use Safari

There might be hope that the link will pop up on the far right as game starts: Game is listed http://www.wmubroncos.com/liveStats/liveStats.dbml

The stats there tell an odd story. 2 GKs, 8 games each. Rau has taken the starting position for last 3.5 games and has a league basement level .667 S%age and Shepherd lost the job with a startling .947 and only 1 goal allowed. Maybe Shepherd got injured in 1st half of loss to WV, the last time he played.

Stanford winning out and either of Creighton or Gtown doing the same makes it very hard for Zips to gain a top 4 seed, even with winning out themselves. In the ACC Wake has ND the 23rd and UNC has to go to Virginia the 30th. Clemson only has BC and NC State. ND is semi dark horse that could win out in regular season, win ACC Tourney, and then get a top seed. Clemson has BC (12) and NC State (18), both possible upsets. Best case is Creighton loses at Gtown Nov 5th and Gtown returns the favor Nov 15th, and/or somebody slips up in ACC and we only see 2 get in with Akron and Stanford vying for the last spot. (btw I totally agree with recent post questioning Creighton's relatively easy home field path and SOS to #1 spot, there are better teams out there and I sould not be surprised by a 3rd round or 1/4s exit) Naturally Akron needs to keep up the winning ways and avoid MAC OT or PK games, and probably win v UCLA fairly decidedly at home in a well watched game that will affect the minds of the committee, even against inconsistent 500 play Bruins. Credit staff for challenging schedule and results so far, it was their only path to get in position and would be a huge advantage come late Nov.

If you have not seen it and want the nuts and bolts Gaucho Dan has it all down. His RPI blog for Akron http://rpiupdatemenssoccer.blogspot.com/2015/08/akron-2015.html His RPI with SOS and OSS, very tight to just released official NCAA. Big Soccer thread http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads/gauchodans-2015-rpi.2024052/ Minor differences are attributed to entry errors buy GD or NCAA for that matter, and the bonus/penalty affects, which I think are 1-25, 26-50 etc ranked opponent wins and losses but I am not sure, they look past whatever they want to at tourney time anyway. An interesting stat might be to look at how closely (or much error) there is in the NSCAA coaches poll to the average of the rest (rags and writers) and its predictive quality to NCAA seeding to the rest plus RPI. ?, can anyone remember an easier ride and retention of a #1 ranking than Creighton's this year and what appears to be a soft Big East less GTown conference in front of them. Their non conf schedule is pretty cupcake and a 1-0 early win versus a depleted Michigan might be the highlight with Tulsa or MSU second toughest? Not wanting to take too much away from a team that seems to play good overall soccer, especially on their pitch, but 69th toughest schedule in the country is not that hard to get through, I'm just saying....

Fknbuflobo My feed was poor and the audio was split off and on a separate channel that ran well ahead or behind when I restarted it so best I could tell Souders RB first half and Radjen was right center but I could not really see numbers. Then again Embick could have been RB and I would have had a hard time telling!! The left side firmed up and Souto was himself again both sides of the ball. Balena seemed to struggle at times w physicality of play this year whereas Soares, while less nimble, is imposing. That may be a key for Souto, not having to carry so much load and he plays more naturally. Regardless, coaches took risk and it paid off, while the entire squad worked tirelessly to almost completely stifle their UCSB student return game with tacos a flying. Well done.

Big changes defensively tonight. Looked like Souders to RB, add Radjen as CB w Ruhaak, Shultz LB, De Vera and Dambrot did not play. Soares as second HM, Balena in after he got a card. Excellent oressure on the ball all over the field, created SB mistakes. Announcer said Zips were best team they played all year by far. I suspect some UCLA let down came into play, they are better than tonight, but still an outstanding game and will gain allot of respect out West.

I agree that was a real issue in last night's game as the first pass forward from the MF was uncharacteristically poor, but the WAY the defensive group plays (DM, Back line, GK) has been poor 6 out of 7 games this season and you see that in the routine nature of the goals given and the stats, which are an outlier by themselves. Let's look at the team as a whole this year by group: - Forwards are really now just 2, Sepe and Gainford, plus one AM pushed up, usually Laryea. The points are concentrated to 3 of them and Sepe has started all 7 games but has one goal and one assist to show for it (after a good pre season). Outstanding play of Laryea the highlight. - In the MF you are really playing 4 and it's usually the engine for the team's play. If it breaks down as with last night scoring suffers from lack of good balls and spreading the other team out and falling in to help defend with Souto and Balena. Souto has looked off last several games. - Defenders and GK are playing well below average for a top 25 team and other than playing Dambrot in for De vera at times, it's a fairly set mold and those players seem pretty comfortable with their spots. You do want stability in the back and will naturally sub less than up top, but this often raised point of ugly GAA probably won't go away by itself and to other's suggestion pretty much eliminates you from getting deep in post season play. The choices are changes that work, changes that don't, or status quo that will likely get you the same sort of results that are catching up with the team. I expect high scorelines to continue as staff is not one for change compared to most programs (heavy concentration starts and minutes, almost always slower to sub than opponents) and high scoring nail biters as a fan, which is more entertaining than defensive/counter affairs so I'll take it!

To unlock the apparent sieve on giving up goals look at 1:40 and the first goal. http://www.gozips.com/sports/msoc/2015-16/videos/20150922-pevsbppm?list=%2Fvideo%2Findex It is a poster child for goals given this year, per game or SA%age or whatever measure. This clip almost looks like a walk thru, way too easy. - lack of direct pressure on the ball once it enters the final third - poor marking - GK out of position again, too tight to the near post After 7 games of the same excepting perhaps Georgetown, and standing at 175th out of 202 teams listed in GAA by NCAA stats it's becoming a hallmark of this group. Nobody in the top 25 I noticed is anywhere near that. It is true that the DM has not shown up at times to help thereby exposing the back line, and sloppy play from mids corps in general in turn exposed the Zips to counters, but in the end when a team is habitually giving goals and many are rather routine you have to look at the back line, especially the CBs and then the GK. You have last year's co-captain in Souders and this year's in Ruhaak both in their 4th year and a 5th year senior in goal. Either you stay the course and expect to change the way those players play or you challenge their playing time and prepare your future and/or prod them into performing by lost minutes. De vera (Usually starts) and Soares subs were earlier than usual for this staff so maybe there is some urgency in the air. Could be let down game for UCSB and bounce back after 2 disappointments for Zips so I expect a win, albeit high scoring....

Firstly, great run against 3 quality teams and a gutty comeback v SLU and looking at schedule a WF win could be part of an amazing run. Congrats team and coaches and special play of Laryea and Najem. As pointed out, GAA and giving 2 or more in 4 of 5 games is an issue, but it is a byproduct and given that of 206 D1 programs only 6 come in higher than the lofty 2.00 it is fortunate that goal scoring (2014 front and center issue) has bailed the team out in 2015. How things change, but credit staff inserting Balena and getting the best players more forward to add spark and variety. As for pinning down GAA, it comes from containing SOG and maintaining a healthy Sa%avg. It is a 2 pronged issue. SOG is Zips 31 to Opponents 29, so a 500 team level of back line defending thus far. 2009 Shots (cant find SOG#s) were 412 to 130, 2010 SOG 187 to 79. Has to get better (DM may have to work harder?) Sa%age is 0.655 and they are not firing in upper 90 bullets. Routine stuff. Somewhere around 100th in nation and 5th/6 in MAC GK stats. 2009 Meves 0.873. 2010 0.771. Also has to get better. At current top 10 0.842 GAA Zips give 1.10 GAA and are over twice, not just under 5x the rest at 0.43. TDS Rank, GAA, Sa%avg 1 Creighton 0.200 0.917 2 ND 0.000 1.000 3 UNC 0.500 0.875 4 UVA 1.000 0.778 5 Stanford 0.200 0.900 6 Oreg St 0.400 0.818 7 Clemson 0.800 0.778 8 WF 0.400 0.714 9 U Wash 0.000 1.000 10 UL 0.800 0.636 Avg 0.430 0.842 11 UA 2.000 0.655

Top Drawer Soccer has Akron with two 2015 commits. I am not sure why this says 2? There are 3. I saw Intl's v Magic and while they sat starters in 4-1 win Itopa came in and was amazing, and he is not a MF, he is winger/fwd from Nigeria and very, very good. Don't bemoan Seremba leaving with this kid coming in. He will be the surprise of 2015-16. CD DCU's Alonzo Clarke slots in for where is that frikin' kid Kahsay. Stud, will challenge to start. Zips looking better for 2015 all the time, nice to hear they gutted out 1-1 tie scoring man down and holding on -2 vrs Louiville. Amazing test of will and good sign.

OK I promise to go watch him pitch in the spring and switch to futbol boots for the fall and see him on the pitch. He might be the best athlete in the state so I am behind the curve on this one. Probably commits by then so we will be see a UA or UL scarf around his neck by the time I see him on the mound. Somebody said he was lead off batter too. Given he is listed around 5-10 170lb he is not the 6-2 super dominant physical HS multisport player, he must have gotten there on pure athleticism. Impressive. Could probably start as their point guard if he wanted to. Is he leaning both ways soccer/baseball? Saad was also non DA, also Gahanna, I hear ya. Did Saad also play basketball at Gahanna? One is still left with: Is there a convert to RB (Schultz or one of the other 14' young guns) or is there a hot iron in that fire? Is there a dangerous player in the weeds they are recruiting here, or overseas about to emerge? Will the LB remain at home and more defensive or will a more balanced attack out of the back be needed?

knbuflobo, on 22 Nov 2014 - 3:19 PM, said: Very talented Junior, multi sport athlete (baseball spring into summer?) that has killed local HS soccer in fall but did not test waters at Dev Academy. That should be the standard and I am not saying a HS multisport kid can't break thru, they do, but it will be rarer and rarer. Bevin like player? (but not from NZ ) He is fine too, but UA should find the best, no less. Hard need at RB, guys are talking about Najem will he get HG, but what about Saad loss to graduation? You could almost take 2 OBs unless you like the heavy asymmetrical play. Souders was better than the rest at defending in that position but offered little forward threat or effective crosses (assists), and that in turn made Zips easier to defend. As for Fs that 'promising' group needs to produce. Thought we would see many more goals from them but Sepe and maybe Holthusen were just above ok and rest poor shooting and no real sense for the frame. Gainford shot like mad and rarely found the mark. Has to be much better than that. Group tended to get narrow into final third too, but that's correctable. 2 OBs and a dangerous guy somewhere up top from some foreign land (2015s gone here) would be my ticket.

Very talented Junior, multi sport athlete (baseball spring into summer?) that has killed local HS soccer in fall but did not test waters at Dev Academy. That should be the standard and I am not saying a HS multisport kid can't break thru, they do, but it will be rarer and rarer. Bevin like player? (but not from NZ ) He is fine too, but UA should find the best, no less. Hard need at RB, guys are talking about Najem will he get HG, but what about Saad loss to graduation? You could almost take 2 OBs unless you like the heavy asymmetrical play. Souders was better than the rest at defending in that position but offered little forward threat or effective crosses (assists), and that in turn made Zips easier to defend. As for Fs that 'promising' group needs to produce. Thought we would see many more goals from them but Sepe and maybe Holthusen were just above ok and rest poor shooting and no real sense for the frame. Gainford shot like mad and rarely found the mark. Has to be much better than that. Group tended to get narrow into final third too, but that's correctable. 2 OBs and a dangerous guy somewhere up top from some foreign land (2015s gone here) would be my ticket. (Maybe this should be on another topic, sorry about that)

The gold stars go to the guys that are statisticians and futbol fans who write the papers and do studies on the topic, as an excuse to spend yet more time on their favorite thing! This was one for the ages and it's unfortunate that Zips came up on wrong end. Another interesting take away is if we assume 80% make rate (probably in 70s but there is more on pros that collegiate I could find) the chance that jake would make 2 critical saves directly in response to Ivanov's was only 4% and speaks to his mental toughness, but at the same time the chance that he never put Ivanov under pressure in the 12 opportunities to do so was only 6.8%. Lastly if about 10% are off frame in good conditions, the chance that 30 shots were on frame is only 4.2%, another remarkable stat from that icy marathon. Now we will wait to see what the inside scoop guys find out and post about new recruits and transfers for 15'. Offshore bounty? Need a couple but may only be a few from getting deeper next year shooting for a CC spot. Looking forward to next year.

They did a compilation of the PKS. Here is the link and summary at a glance. I thought Jake guessed correctly more too watching the game. In the end Ivanov lacks the cat quickness that Jake has but did guess better (8 to 6) and the 3rd round save which looked routine at the time was actually decent, body moving right but arms come up and correct left in a counter directional move. Put another way, if Ivanov were not tall/ strong/ long arms with his apparent relative lack of quickness he gets beaten every outing, but he does not. Speed kills at outside back and the wing, skill/smarts in the mid, and size in the back. You can try to get around those things but it's not easy. http://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com/sports/m-soccer/spec-rel/112114aaa.html Ivanov Jake 1 Correct, dive, goal Incorrect, dive goal 2 Incorrect, fell over, goal Incorrect, goal 3 Starts move right, corrects left, save Correct, dive save 4 Stationary, goal Correct, hand on, goal 5 Fall over, goal Incorrect, goal 6 Stationary, goal Incorrect, goal 7 Incorrect shuttle, goal Correct, thru hands, goal 8 Correct, over hand, goal Incorrect, goal 9 Correct poor dive, goal Incorrect, goal 10 Correct, goal Incorrect, goal 11 Correct, goal Correct, goal 12 Correct save Correct save 13 Stationary, goal Incorrect, goal 14 Incorrect fell over, goal Incorrect fell over, goal 15 Correct, blocked away Correct, near, under arm Ivanov 8 Correct or corrected move to ball 3 saves 1 error Jake 6 Correct moves to ball 2 saves 3 errors

There are actually tells where a good keeper can out 'guess' the pack. Degree of body tilt, quick opening of hips into the ball, inside out movement of striking foot, height of weak side arm elbow, etc, Have to read and process it really quickly too! In this area Jake was probably better. During play Ivanov was better imo, but in early PKs he looked lost, kind of just fell over to his left 3-4 times. After about round 7-8 and his players coming to him to be the damn man and fully commit he was better (we can only assume they were trying to get him on track, make it happen). I do not remember Zips going up to stoke Jake after they shot even once. Overall communication has been raised many times on this forum, and in critical times like this it can matter. Then even if you do make the right call on which side and height to commit to there is the matter of stopping balls that hit your hands and arms. Here Ivanov was better as Jake got to a few more but they got thru. Ivanov stopped the ones he got to, even if fewer. You could look at it like errors in baseball but with keepers it is physics, usually the 6-2 190 (looks more like 200) prototype beats the 6-0 160 player. Not always, but usually. Going in I felt shooting advantage naturally Akron, keeper probably OSU. For Embick he did allot with a mostly very young team. With Souto playing in early games and tonight maybe it would have been different and that was not in Embick's control. At the same time there was no getting over the hump even with the trio in the MF in key away games WF, MSU, PSU. One goal in the 3 combined showed where this team was, very good at times but not great. Better as the year progressed overall and lots to look forward too. Rip off NCAA away tonight for sure. Probably won't change so you just have to get over it and be that much better and take it to people even more. Embick deserves year 3.

This will be a very interesting 2 games for the staff to manage. Staying on the notion of the Laryea/Souto/Najem trinity, the absence of Souto or Laryea produced no wins, one tie and 3 losses. You don't even wants to even think about effect of no Najem. Last game they went 4-4-2 in what might be preparation for these next 2 games ex Souto, as slipping Jesse G-A in or Sanda experiment sees MF pretty much go flat, and there follows the rest. MF driven scheme. Maybe lately high minute Caso takes Souto's place and Cregan returns as CB? Doesn't seem like going smaller with Jesse G-A for Souto by himself works and the others that have tried minutes in there did not get much traction. Also allows Najem to get more forward as false 9 or diamond tip. With 4 MF maybe they get after OSU in Ohio Ice Bowl and then comes ND at South Bend. Hodan and Besler. Laryea and Najem. You could say the away against OSU and then 1 seed ND is an insult and hobbles the team's chances, but where are they if they shuttle past OSU and go into ND and get 110% out of Saad and the MF is relentless and you put enough shots on a very big frame (or is it that Wal's range is limited?) and they get 2 goals and its enough? Then where are you sitting with Souto rolling back in at UVA? I like the odds!