Captain Kangaroo Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 Highly Scientific Lunchtime Analysis:#1 - Buffalo (8-4) Previous Rank #1A MAC team that doesn’t need to brag about how closely they lost to someone….they actually are winning…what a novel concept? Buffalo is rock-solid at #1 coming off impressive neutral court wins vs. Pepperdine, Colodado and Colorado State (was Northern Colorado unavailable?).#2 – Miami (7-5)Previous Rank #3 Followed up their 36 point loss to WVa with a 1-point win @ Northwestern State La, and a 5-point loss to Dayton. Hardly impressive…but in the thus far sorry MAC it is good enough for #2.#3 – Can't (7-7)Previous Rank #2 Drubbed Shawnee State and Hampton, then follow it up with a 15-point loss @ Temple. Hard to believe this is good enough to garner a #3 ranking….but it is.#4 – Bowling Green (7-6)Previous Rank # 5Won 3 of their last 4, albeit to fairly weak competition. #5 – OU (7-6)Previous Rank #6The Bobcats have won 3 in a row, including Holy Cross and Bucknell. Tilman was POTW. Bobcats seem to be rising.#6 – Akron (8-5)Previous Rank #3A nice 22-point road win is heavily outweighed by a 29 point road loss to Rhode Island.The rest (I can’t justify evaluating the MAC West tripe):#7 BSU (5-7)#8 NIU (4-8)#9 Toledo (2-12, but a “nice” 9-point loss to Rhode Island)#10 CMU (3-9)#11 Akron Women’s Team (5-8)#12 WMU (3-10)#13 EMU (2-11) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skip-zip Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 I'd hate to see us finish last in our division this year, but I think we all know that many of our division foes are more experienced than us, and I'm not sure I can put a tag that says "good performance" on any of our games since the Niagara and Dayton games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zip Watcher Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 Now the Zips are the worst team in the East? Is that what you mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zip Watcher Posted January 7, 2009 Report Share Posted January 7, 2009 Not sure if there's too much time between games or what, but it seems the Zips get worse every day I check in here. I did a little digging to see what SOS / computers are saying and it's a little different:Edit: 9 Jan 09: Wrongly indicated this as RPI when posted. It's Pomeroy's modelHere's the kenpom Pomeroy rankings (Ranking / SOS) as of today for MAC east members:Team Pomeroy SOS1... 64 102... 101 1883... 107 1664... 139 1505... 155 2536... 159 228Team #1 clearly is above the others in both Pomeroy and SOS. It's not Buffalo.The current BEST WIN IN THE MAC is a road victory vs. the #60 RPI team. Guess who?Buffalo is rock-solid at #1 coming off impressive neutral court wins vs. Pepperdine, Colodado and Colorado StateRPI's of 310, 182, 168, respectively .. winning games yes .. impressive? not so different from UA's wins IMHO.I do think that UB and UA are close .. both were competitive against some good teams, and have beaten up some crap teams. But the Bulls aren't out there racking up quality wins that the Zips don't have. They're just not. Both teams have exactly 1 win vs. the top 100. Miami has 2 (#71 Temple and #97 Wright State). The Bobcats have won 3 in a row, including Holy Cross and Bucknell. Tilman was POTW. Bobcats seem to be rising.RPI's of 236, 272, 292 respectively, with 1 win vs. the top 100 (#83 Tulsa @ Home)Hard to believe this is good enough to garner a #3 ranking….but it is.Can't has 0 wins vs. the top 100, with a BEST WIN @ #149 Saint Louis and a WORST LOSS vs. #152 Western Carolina @ Home. BGSU is WINLESS vs the top 200, including a loss @ #324 Savannah St.For my money, Miami remains the team to beat in the East (& conference) this year. Even with the Hayes injury, they're a tough out, and they've played a strong schedule to prepare.Then I think that UA & UB are in the mix, based on performances to date. Both teams have lost some games against good competition, and beaten 1 top 100 team, while feasting on the low ranked teams to build a wining record.To say the Zips are looking up a the east is being a bit too critical, IMHO. We're hardest on our own team, I get that .. but they're in the mix with everyone else at this point. No reason whatsoever to believe that they can't play night in and out with the other 5 teams in the east. Saturday should be enlightening.Go Zips .. Snag the Sweaters. B) PS: Here's the link to the MAC rankings @ KenPom .. it's not pretty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kangaroo Posted January 8, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 Now the Zips are the worst team in the East? Is that what you mean?At this time, I don't see the Zips playing better than anyone in the East. I don't think that means we're the worst team in the East, but if the MAC tourney began tomorrow, I certainly wouldn't bet the house on us. K.e.n.t. is the one team that makes a strong case for being worse (than the Zips), but I give them a little slack because they've played such a tough OOC schedule. OU seems to be getting on track, and we don't have Travis or Wood to counter Tilman. Buffalo is playing VERY well. Miami seems about at our level.IMO - I see Buffalo as the clear leader, and the others...not much of a degree of separation.SOS is tough to gauge right now. Many of the strong teams have played cupcakes, and vice versa. Once conference play begins, it will be interesting to see how the SOS changes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zip Watcher Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 K.e.n.t. is the one team that makes a strong case for being worse (than the Zips), but I give them a little slack because they've played such a tough OOC schedule.This cuts right to the point of my argument. Based on current performance of teams THIS season (and I'm basing this on KenPom RPI .. there are probably differences among other RPI sites), I find that the perception that Can't has played "such a tough OOC schedule" is off base.The flushes have played 5 top 100 teams, 4 top 60 .. and conversely 7 opponents w/ RPI 150 or worse .. counting non D-1 as worse than 150.The Zips have also played 5 top 100 teams, 4 top 60 .. and 7 opponents w/ RPI 150 or worse.I just don't see where UA is any different than the Flushes .. except the Zips have a better RPI win.I figure the East is a dead crapshoot at this point (you know .. with exactly 0 games played .. ). And I certainly don't think the Zips are looking up at the division. I think they're in the pack. Their performance thus far when compared to the rest of the teams indicates as much.Miami getting their PG situation ironed out would scare me. I'm actually glad to catch them early in the first rotation.Getting Ronnie back will be a big help for the Zips. Every team's probably got a wrinkle or 2 to iron out.Should be a fun ride .. 10-6 might earn a bye this season.Go Zips! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlotte_49 Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 Here's my MAC Top 5....1. Miami2. Buffalo 3. Akron4. Ohio5. Can'tI had Miami ahead of Buffalo last week as well. I don't think Buffalo deserves the #1 spot. Sure, they won 3 in a row, but those wins were a one-point win against #320 Pepperdine, a 2-point win over #248 Colorado, and #162 Colorado state (RPI). I still think Miami is the better team with the tougher schedule and better wins. But its getting closer.Last week I had Akron at #3, tied with Can't. Can't has obviously dropped. But I keep Akron there because losing to Rhode Island on the road--currently a Top 50 team with a decent shot at the NCAA tourney--is a bad loss, but not a horrible loss. Sure, we shouldn't have lost by 29 points, and it was ugly, but I wouldn't expect a single MAC team to beat Rhode Island in their house this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skip-zip Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 I've been thinking about this a little bit more. Who knows...maybe we are the worst team in the East. But, the lack of an abundance of solid performances from our competitors would also seem to indicate that the door is open in the East this year. But, my negative thoughts deal mostly with what we have failed to get done over the course of our non-conference schedule to show that we're prepared to compete in our division.1) I felt like we needed to quickly develop some new low post scoring options in the absence of Jeremiah. It hasn't happened.2) We needed some newcomers to quickly emerge as contributors, and get some decent game experience prior to conference play. Besides Humpty in spurts, it hasn't happened. Most of them have barely seen the court.3) I felt like Nate needed to become a scorer this year. And at 10 ppg, I think it's not enough.4) Besides maybe Jimmy C., nobody has emerged as a strong, consistent rebounder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilltopper Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 But, my negative thoughts deal mostly with what we have failed to get done over the course of our non-conference schedule to show that we're prepared to compete in our division.Thats what you need to work on Skip. Don't worry, be happy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w00t Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 Buffalo will finish 5th or 6th in the MAC East, bank on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. (old English proverb)Some are better prepared than others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnyzip84 Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 KD (at least for the record) still thinks Can't is the team to beat in the East, although he (like just about everyone) regards it as wide open with every team having a shot.BJ LinkUnfortunately, it also looks like Steward will be out for a little while longer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skip-zip Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 Hilltopper....nice response. I was looking for something to laugh about today. It's hard to be happy when you haven't been to the NCAA Tournament in 23 years. Believe me, it's a great experience for a student. I was fortunate enough to still be a student when it happened. But heck...the year 1986 probably even precedes the birth date of many posters on here. Honestly though, these are a few of the things that have me thinking negatively right now about our chances to compete this year. But, I'm also not ready to start looking towards next year anytime soon. Dave...perfectly said. Plus, it's just a lot more fun to root for a team if they are playing better than you expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quickzips Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 My current MAC Power Rankings.1.) MAC East2.) MAC WestBeyond that, we really don't know enough about any one team to really fairly rank anyone at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilltopper Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 Hilltopper....nice response. I was looking for something to laugh about today. It's hard to be happy when you haven't been to the NCAA Tournament in 23 years. Believe me, it's a great experience for a student. I was fortunate enough to still be a student when it happened. But heck...the year 1986 probably even precedes the birth date of many posters on here. Honestly though, these are a few of the things that have me thinking negatively right now about our chances to compete this year. But, I'm also not ready to start looking towards next year anytime soon. Dave...perfectly said. Plus, it's just a lot more fun to root for a team if they are playing better than you expected.Skip, Ihave been a BB season ticket holder for over 35 years now. I know you want whats best for the team, but us old guys have to remember that we are dealing with a bunch of kids. These guys are just barely past teenagers. Life is too short to get all worked up. Take things one game at a time and you might have more fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kangaroo Posted January 8, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 we really don't know enough about any one team to really fairly rank anyone at this point.Until such a point that fair rankings are possible, I reserve to right to unfairly rank everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quickzips Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 we really don't know enough about any one team to really fairly rank anyone at this point.Until such a point that fair rankings are possible, I reserve to right to unfairly rank everyone. Fair enough. I hope you realize that wasn't a cheap shot at you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kangaroo Posted January 8, 2009 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 we really don't know enough about any one team to really fairly rank anyone at this point.Until such a point that fair rankings are possible, I reserve to right to unfairly rank everyone. Fair enough. I hope you realize that wasn't a cheap shot at you.Fully realized! I put up the "rankings" to get people up to speed on the other MAC teams and to get some MAC hoops discussion going. I feel they're moderately accurate...but am not placing any large bets in Vegas to back them up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pdt1420 Posted January 8, 2009 Report Share Posted January 8, 2009 Buffalo will finish 5th or 6th in the MAC East, bank on it.I'm bankin' dat like Nat City!oh, wait... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skip-zip Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 Hi Hilltopper.Wow...you probably went to games at Memorial Hall, which I never got to do. That even precedes my time here. Nice to see some old timers like myself getting active on this board. Just giving my thoughts about how I feel about our chances this year. Not only as a fan, but from the perspective of a player and coach...and someone who was born into a basketball family. Of course I will enjoy the season. Zips Basketball is such a big part of my life every winter that I drive my wife crazy. Lets hope for the best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 Skip, it took me awhile to figure out where you were coming from. I've been known to be overly pessimistic at times, and it does have the benefit of producing more good surprises than expected. But I'm generally pleased that the Zips have a good coach, good players and a winning record every year. The next step of winning championships is a tough one, but I think within reach in the near future. This year is a big challenge with so many young players. They'll continue to make mistakes along the way, and we'll lament the poor showings here. But I think it's fair to expect them to continue improving throughout the year and perhaps peak in time for the MAC tournament.By the way, Hilltopper took me to my first Zips game back in the 1985-86 era, so I guess I also qualify as an old timer. There were some pretty lean years there between Huggins and KD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilltopper Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 Hi Hilltopper.Wow...you probably went to games at Memorial Hall, which I never got to do. That even precedes my time here. Nice to see some old timers like myself getting active on this board. Just giving my thoughts about how I feel about our chances this year. Not only as a fan, but from the perspective of a player and coach...and someone who was born into a basketball family. Of course I will enjoy the season. Zips Basketball is such a big part of my life every winter that I drive my wife crazy. Lets hope for the best.Wyatt Webb was the coach when I first started attending Zips BB. Len paul was a senior. Harvey Glover and Nate Barnett. Later on the the Bates brothers. It was a different era. At Memorial Hall you could smell the chlorine sometimes from the pool below the main floor. Talk about a band box arena. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeaglet1 Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 Just an FYI Zip Watcher, KenPom isnt doing RPI anymore. It's his own ratings system.http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/the_rpi_is_dead/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zip Watcher Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 Fair enough .. so I'm using the Pomeroy rankings .. similar to Sagarin .. et al.Original post edited for clarification. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeaglet1 Posted January 9, 2009 Report Share Posted January 9, 2009 Didn't mean for you to change your post, just wanted to let ya know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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