Tournament Seeding Scenarios

[Zip Watcher]

Spent 20 minutes looking at the scenarios during lunch.It would appear that the Zips can no longer have only 1 route to win the Regular Season Title. I can't only find one a scenario that gives UA the correct tie breakers to land the #1 seed.Everything I looked at assumes the Zips would go 2-0 to finish at 11-5 .. there isn't a way they end up in a tie at 10-6 for the division lead, as for that to happen, both BG & U@B would have to lose twice, giving Miami a final record of 11-5.CORRECTION: Based on corrected tie-breaking procedures .. UA wins 1st seed in Scenario 2 below.2 Way Ties @ 11-5Scenario 1: UA & Miami win out .. BG & U@B lose out.Here, Miami wins the tiebreaker based on a 3-1 record against BG & U@B. UA 2-2.Scenario 2: UA wins out .. U@B beats Miami, Loses to Can't State. BG Loses Both, Miami 1-1.Here, UA wins the tiebreaker based on a 2-0 record vs Can't. U@B 1-1. Both Teams 2-2 vs. MIA & BG.Scenario 3: UA wins out .. BG loses to OU, beats Miami, U@B loses out, Miami 1-1.In this case, BG gets the 1 seed based on 3-1 record vs. U@B & Miami. UA 2-2.3 Way Ties @ 11-5Scenario 4: UA & Miami win out .. BG Beats OU, Buff loses outIn this case, UA is 2-2 vs. the others, Miami is 3-1, BG 1-3 .. Miami Wins DivisionScenario 5: UA & Miami win out .. U@B beats Can't State, BG loses outIn this case, All teams are 2-2 against each other .. Miami is 2-0 vs. BG, UA is 1-1, U@B 0-2 .. Miami Wins DivisionScenario 6: UA wins out, BG Loses to OU, U@B Splits .. all 11-5BGSU is your division champion based on a 3-1 record vs. UA & U@B .. UA 2nd, U@B 3rd.4 Way Tie @ 11-5Scenario 7: UA & Miami win out .. BG beats OU, Buff Beats Can't State .. all are 11-5Here, Miami is the winner by going 4-2 vs. the others. UA second, BG third, Buff 4thDifficult Sucks for the Zips .. automatic NIT bid now off the table only one way .. if these scenarios are correct.Tomorrow, I'll look at the bye situation if the Zips split the last 2 games. I have a feeling it could be pretty similar.

Edited March 3, 2009 by Zip Watcher
Corrected a few scenarios based on tiebreakers

[Zips Win!]

Spent 20 minutes looking at the scenarios during lunch.It would appear that the Zips can no longer win the Regular Season Title. I can't find a scenario that gives UA the correct tie breakers to land the #1 seed.Everything I looked at assumes the Zips would go 2-0 to finish at 11-5 .. there isn't a way they end up in a tie at 10-6 for the division lead, as for that to happen, both BG & U@B would have to lose twice, giving Miami a final record of 11-5.2 Way Ties @ 11-5Scenario 1: UA & Miami win out .. BG & U@B lose out.Here, Miami wins the tiebreaker based on a 2-0 record against BG. BG would be tied with U@B @ 10-6, and finish 3rd based on the 2-0 head to head vs. the bulls. Then the UA / Miami second tiebreaker is record against 3rd place team (BG).Scenario 2: UA wins out .. U@B beats Miami, Loses to Can't State. BG Loses Both, Miami 1-1.Here, U@B wins the top seed, based on a 2-0 record vs. Miami (second tiebreaker, as above).Scenario 3: UA wins out .. BG loses to OU, beats Miami, U@B loses out, Miami 1-1.In this case, Miami gets the 3rd seed due to 1-1 vs. BG. BG / UA tiebreaker broken with BG 2-0 vs. U@B3 Way Ties @ 11-5Scenario 4: UA & Miami win out .. BG Beats OU, Buff loses outIn this case, UA is 2-2 vs. the others, Miami is 3-1, BG 1-3 .. Miami Wins DivisionScenario 5: UA & Miami win out .. U@B beats Can't State, BG loses outIn this case, All teams are 2-2 against each other .. Miami is 2-0 vs. BG, UA is 1-1, U@B 0-2 .. Miami Wins DivisionScenario 6: UA wins out, BG Loses to OU, U@B Splits .. all 11-5BGSU is your division champion based on a 3-1 record vs. UA & U@B .. UA 2nd, U@B 3rd.4 Way Tie @ 11-5Scenario 7: UA & Miami win out .. BG beats OU, Buff Beats Can't State .. all are 11-5Here, Miami is the winner by going 4-2 vs. the others. UA second, BG third, Buff 4thSucks for the Zips .. automatic NIT bid now off the table .. if these scenarios are correct.Tomorrow, I'll look at the bye situation if the Zips split the last 2 games. I have a feeling it could be pretty similar.

At this point, I will be elated if we just get a damn bye at the MAC tournament.

[skip-zip]

Zip Watcher...I've looked at it too. If you are correct that we can't win a tiebreaker against anyone, then we are indeed screwed. Miami playing both Buffalo and BG makes it that way. I can't come up with any combination of wins and losses by those 3 teams which puts us ahead of all of them. Unless, Miami can beat both Buffalo and BG, but not count those games as wins

[Zip Watcher]

Wasting more of my afternoon to look at available paths to the first round bye, I find the following:1. Winning both remaining games assures the Zips of a bye.2. Winning vs. OU and losing to Can't State will get the Zips a bye if ANY of the following happens: - If both U@B and BG beat Miami - If U@B wins out - If BG wins out and Can't beats U@B - If Miami wins out with at least one additional loss by either U@B or BG3. Losing to OU and winning @ Can't State will get the Zips a bye if ANY of the following happens: - If both U@B and BG beat Miami - If U@B wins out - If BG wins out - If Miami Wins out with at least one additional loss by either U@B or BG - If BG beats Miami and Miami beats Buffalo4. If the Zips lose their last 2, they will be playing on Tuesday.I make no claim that these are the only scenarios. Only that I think they're on the right track. I believe them to be accurate, but mistakes can be made ..All in all .. several scenarios get the Zips a bye with one more win. B) Go Zips!

Edited March 2, 2009 by Zip Watcher
Fixed Scenario 3 .. to add 2 conditions

[Zip Watcher]

Just to help your dinner sit a little better tonight .. in using my little scenario generator .. I think a win Sunday vs. BG would have guaranteed the Zips a bye without even winning one more game.All together now ..

[bUAkronG]

Well that sucks a bunch....Now the question becomes, which scenario is most favorable for us in terms of post season matchups?

[MDZip]

Looking at the bigger picture, it is disappointing that there is no chance to win the league regular season title, but this team has accomplished a great deal (and a great deal more than was expected) and still have just as good a chance of winning the tournament as anyone (as proof I offer that the Zips have beaten every team in the league save Ohio - which hopefully happens this week - and NIU at their place). The bad part is that they are not playing their best basketball right now, but we still could win the MAC tournament although I think it is essential we pick up one of the byes. Combine that with the article that was just posted about Zeke and the MAC better take their best shot at us this year.

[RACER]

we need to win the last two games.we would have 20 wins plus the mac tourney games left.i would think with 20 winswe should get to the post season game somewhere.from what i understand there are three post season tourney's now not including the big dance.we really need to get a bye to win the mac tourney.if i am not mistaken no team has won the mac tourney that did not get a bye.we may not be able to win the mac, but there are still chances for post season play.

[MDZip]

Wow, Joe Lunardi just released his latest bracketology with now Bowling Green representing the MAC. The new thing is that they are listed as a 16th seed. Man the MAC has fallen.

[johnnyzip84]

Wow, Joe Lunardi just released his latest bracketology with now Bowling Green representing the MAC. The new thing is that they are listed as a 16th seed. Man the MAC has fallen.

Home losses to EASTERN MICHIGAN and CANISIUS will do that for you.

[BirdZip]

Scenario 2: UA wins out .. U@B beats Miami, Loses to Can't State. BG Loses Both, Miami 1-1.Here, U@B wins the top seed, based on a 2-0 record vs. Miami (second tiebreaker, as above).

I don't think the tie-breaker is just Miami in that case. I think it's Miami and BG together since they have the same record, in which case it's another tie. How about this scenario, unlikely though it may be:Thursday:Can't beats BuffaloAkron beats OhioMiami beats BGSunday:Ohio beats BGAkron beats Can'tBuffalo beats MiamiFinal records:Akron 11-5Buffalo 11-5BGSU 10-6Miami 10-6Can't State 9-7Ohio 8-8Tiebreakers (Akron vs Buffalo):Head to head: Tie (1-1)Against BG/Miami combined: Tie (2-2)Against Can't State: Akron wins (2-0 vs 1-1) (Even if Ball State gets to 9-7, they beat Buffalo)Is this the last thread of hope we have to cling to? Can I have a ruling please?

[MDZip]

Scenario 2: UA wins out .. U@B beats Miami, Loses to Can't State. BG Loses Both, Miami 1-1.Here, U@B wins the top seed, based on a 2-0 record vs. Miami (second tiebreaker, as above).

I don't think the tie-breaker is just Miami in that case. I think it's Miami and BG together since they have the same record, in which case it's another tie. How about this scenario, unlikely though it may be:Thursday:Can't beats BuffaloAkron beats OhioMiami beats BGSunday:Ohio beats BGAkron beats Can'tBuffalo beats MiamiFinal records:Akron 11-5Buffalo 11-5BGSU 10-6Miami 10-6Can't State 9-7Ohio 8-8Tiebreakers (Akron vs Buffalo):Head to head: Tie (1-1)Against BG/Miami combined: Tie (2-2)Against Can't State: Akron wins (2-0 vs 1-1) (Even if Ball State gets to 9-7, they beat Buffalo)Is this the last thread of hope we have to cling to? Can I have a ruling please?

I think we have a shred of hope, that is the way the MAC tiebreakers work; any two teams tied in the rankings are considered as a group so I think your analysis is correct. It's a long shot but it's still a shot.

[Zip Watcher]

I agree .. I think I was doing the tiebreakers upside down on that one .. so there's one way through. I'll re-verify the others sometime soon to check if there's another way.

[WinZip]

At this point I am VERY happy with a bye either way. Im thinking about Thursday and Sunday's games rather than looking back at what coulda been (which to be honest makes me sick). The zips are in the drivers seat so lets get all the fan support we can and hope for the best! Lets go zips!

[RootforRoo44]

All i know is i hope the Zips can have an easy win because if any of that crew from Sunday is doing the game Thursday I will be in their ears the entire game. AND two of them will not live down the mess they made of the NIU game as well as Sunday's game.

[skip-zip]

I'm pretty happy with any bye also. One less game is the important thing. However, I do see some advantages out there.....1) The #7 seed will get to play Ball State in the quarterfinals, instead of a stronger highly-seeded East team. 2) If Ball State advances, the #3 seed will get to play them in the semifinals. So, I still see that #3 spot as a good place to be (much like our #3 seed last year).3) The #1 seed gets to play the #8 seed in the quarterfinals, which looks like it will be one of the weak also-rans from the MAC West.

[Dr Z]

If the Zips can't beat three teams in a row in the MAC tournament, they don't deserve anything, whomever they play, east, west, south or north.NO EXCUSES. The MAC is weak...TAKE IT NOW!

[WinZip]

One less game= one less chance for the zips to drop the ballEvery team can make mistakes, no matter the talent, and with such a young group of guys it looks like blown first half leads (of 18 or 10) will not be a rare event. With that said let's hope the Zips have learned from their mistakes and are ready to bring it to a new level.

[Dave in Green]

The more I think about it, the more I come around to the fact that the Zips have beaten some teams they were supposed to lose to, and they've lost to some teams they were supposed to have beaten. So I'm starting to be less concerned about where the Zips are seeded. I'm thinking the single most important factor going into the tournament is the attitude of the players, and not looking for the easiest path.

[BobcatGman]

You know the sad thing about the 2009 MAC Tournament, Any of the top 7 or 8 teams are capable of winning it. Getting a Bye would be huge for any team. This year's MAC Tournament is going to be a dog fight. "BobcatGman"-- Jerome Tillman MAC POY !! Jerome Tillman 1 of 2 players in the Country to lead their Conference in both Scoring and Rebounding, the other player, Blake Griffin Oklahoma.

[johnnyzip84]

The more I think about it, the more I come around to the fact that the Zips have beaten some teams they were supposed to lose to, and they've lost to some teams they were supposed to have beaten. So I'm starting to be less concerned about where the Zips are seeded. I'm thinking the single most important factor going into the tournament is the attitude of the players, and not looking for the easiest path.

I absolutely concur. In fact, I might even argue that an extra home game might not be such a bad thing for a young team. Hey if you lose a home MAC tourney game, you don't really deserve to be in Cleveland anyway. And I'm not buying the "they'll get tired with the extra game" argument. UA is as deep as any team in the league. These are 18, 19, 20 and 21 year old kids for Pete's sake. Endurance should NOT be an issue.

[RootforRoo44]

"BobcatGman"-- Jerome Tillman MAC POY !!

The Bongcats -- BUOTY(biggest underachievers of the year)

[BirdZip]

The more I think about it, the more I come around to the fact that the Zips have beaten some teams they were supposed to lose to, and they've lost to some teams they were supposed to have beaten. So I'm starting to be less concerned about where the Zips are seeded. I'm thinking the single most important factor going into the tournament is the attitude of the players, and not looking for the easiest path.

I absolutely concur. In fact, I might even argue that an extra home game might not be such a bad thing for a young team. Hey if you lose a home MAC tourney game, you don't really deserve to be in Cleveland anyway. And I'm not buying the "they'll get tired with the extra game" argument. UA is as deep as any team in the league. These are 18, 19, 20 and 21 year old kids for Pete's sake. Endurance should NOT be an issue.

I'm trying to figure out who the Zips beat this year that they were supposed to lose to. Looking through the schedule and results, I can't find one. You might make an argument for Niagara.Where does the extra home game come from? All tourney games are at the Q. And of course endurance is an issue. They're young and have better stamina than us old folks but that also means that they put forth a stronger effort than us old folks. An extra game sandwiched in between the Can't State game and a 3-games-in-3-nights run will take a toll.

[Captain Kangaroo]

Who wants to play NIU or Ball State right now? Playing on Tuesday would suck. I guarantee at least one "lower seed" will advance to Thursday's Final 8. Probably two. I don't want the Zips to be one of the favored teams that falters.I also disagree with the notion at, if we lose, we don't deserve the post-season. NO ONE in the MAC deserves the post season! This is the worst collective set of teams the MAC has fielded in memory! So why not the Zips in 2009?This tourney comes down to coaching. The team that is most prepared and focused will win. No team has a "star" x-factor to carry them. No team has overly more talent or experience than another.

[Dave in Green]

I'm trying to figure out who the Zips beat this year that they were supposed to lose to. Looking through the schedule and results, I can't find one. You might make an argument for Niagara.

"Supposed to" is synonymous with "expected to" or "predicted to." I seriously doubt that any major ranking system predicted the Zips as favorites going into every conference game they've won this year.Going all the way back to the MAC preseason poll, the Zips were predicted to finish fourth in the East this season. So from the beginning they obviously would not have been predicted to beat the teams ranked ahead of them or lose to those ranked behind them. But virtually every sports team at every level loses some they're expected to win and wins some they're expect to lose, and that certainly applies to the Zips.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------2008-09 Mid-American Conference News Media Association Preseason Poll East Division 1. Can't State (16 first-place votes) -124 points2. Miami (6) - 109 points3. Bowling Green - 70 points4. Akron - 67 points5. Ohio - 66 points6. Buffalo - 35 pointsWest Division 1. Western Michigan (15) - 122 points2. Eastern Michigan (7) - 105 points3. Central Michigan - 79 points4. Toledo - 71 points5. Ball State - 55 points6. Northern Illinois - 39 pointsTournament Champion Votes: Can't State (11), Miami (7), Bowling Green (2), Eastern Michigan (2)