phil Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 I think for this team to advance in any type of tournament they need the outside shooting of Nitro and Walsh. I thing Nitro is forcing up the 3 too quickly. I remember that he did that as a freshman but as he got more minutes the last two years he had a more all around game. In the W. Va game and the Oral Roberts game he did not shoot well. He needs to let the game come to him and do other things besides trying to hit the quick 3. I still have confidence in him because the kid has a great shot when he sets up and is open. I thought McNees had some subpar shooting during the last few seasons but he would come to the Q and light it up. I am hoping to see the same from Nitro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippy_ua_00 Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 I think for this team to advance in any type of tournament they need the outside shooting of Nitro and Walsh. I thing Nitro is forcing up the 3 too quickly. I remember that he did that as a freshman but as he got more minutes the last two years he had a more all around game. In the W. Va game and the Oral Roberts game he did not shoot well. He needs to let the game come to him and do other things besides trying to hit the quick 3. I still have confidence in him because the kid has a great shot when he sets up and is open. I thought McNees had some subpar shooting during the last few seasons but he would come to the Q and light it up. I am hoping to see the same from Nitro. Mcnees came up big in big games. Nitro falls apart in big games and plays sub par in normal games. Im not a big fan of mcnees' play but he knew how to hit the shot when the pressure was on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zip Watcher Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 Hey now, Nitro threw a couple of daggers at the Q last year to help get through the early rounds. Let's not start some broad brush stroke that he hasn't come up big when it counted .. because it's not objectively true. Go Zips!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Z Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 When Brett was on the Keith Dambrot Show a couple of weeks back, he admitted he is having a hard time adjusting not being able to set his feet and shoot this year. You could sense his frustration. PS McNees was 2 for 7 from three point land against ND in the NCAA tournament last March. We MUST produce in the paint to win big games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mes102 Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 Hey now, Nitro threw a couple of daggers at the Q last year to help get through the early rounds. Let's not start some broad brush stroke that he hasn't come up big when it counted .. because it's not objectively true. Go Zips!!! Agreed..don't think we win that Miami(OH) quarterfinal game without his clutch plays near the end... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 Looking at Nitro's performance graphs for the last two seasons brings out an interesting fact: For much of last season when his PT was averaging 25-27-minutes per game, he consistently shot 3s at a 37-40 percent rate. Earlier this season when his PT was averaging 29-30 minutes per game, he was hitting 3s at a 37-48 percent rate. Later this season as his average PT fell down into the 20-minute per game range, his 3-point shooting fell on a similar curve down to the current 30 percent rate. Last season his PT and shooting percentage were steady; this season his PT and shooting percentage have fallen together. Conclusion: There's almost a direct correlation between Nitro's average minutes played and his 3-point shooting percentage -- the more he plays the better he shoots and the less he plays the worse he shoots. Nitro on StatSheet.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Z Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 Did you factor in the quality of opponent? Out of conference vs MAC play? Zone vs man to man defense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skip-zip Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 1) I've always felt like he's had too much "panic" in his offensive game. Think of the consistency in which guys like Walsh and McNees shoot 3-pointers. Brett, on the other hand, is all over the place, and often looks rushed. 2) I'll agree with those who feel that he came up HUGE in that quarterfinal game against Miami last year. I just wish it had carried over to the remainder of his career. 3) I can only think of one real consistent stretch in his career, which was during primarily the OOC games in the early part of last season. If he can contribute a stretch of games like that now to end his career, it would be a pleasant surprise. I hate to see him go out like this. 4) I was hoping for a Conyers-like resurrection in his Senior year. And I wonder if his Senior year had been NEXT year, like it was supposed to be, if that would have made a big difference for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zip Watcher Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 ... a Conyers-like resurrection .... Nice! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted February 21, 2012 Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 Did you factor in the quality of opponent? Out of conference vs MAC play? Zone vs man to man defense? As I said, last season his PT and shooting percentage were relatively flat and steady; this season his PT and shooting percentage have steadily fallen together. Quality of opponent, OOC vs MAC play, type of defense, etc., may have contributed to minor fluctuations in the curves. Obviously, we know that all shooters have good and bad games, which creates some fluctuation. But the trend correlation obvious on the graphs is between average PT and average shooting percentage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil Posted February 21, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2012 I think Dave in Green makes a great point. His minutes are down from last season and he feels like he has to shoot quickly and shoot well from 3 point area to stay on the floor. That is difficult. He has forced a lot of quick 3s this year. I hope he realizes that he can contribute in other ways besides hitting the 3. That would help the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skip-zip Posted February 22, 2012 Report Share Posted February 22, 2012 Nice! Thank you. Please feel free to use it yourself in the future Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Z Posted February 22, 2012 Report Share Posted February 22, 2012 As I said, last season his PT and shooting percentage were relatively flat and steady; this season his PT and shooting percentage have steadily fallen together. Quality of opponent, OOC vs MAC play, type of defense, etc., may have contributed to minor fluctuations in the curves. Obviously, we know that all shooters have good and bad games, which creates some fluctuation. But the trend correlation obvious on the graphs is between average PT and average shooting percentage.So no? I would like to see a proper statistical analysis to be presise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Hip Zip Posted February 22, 2012 Report Share Posted February 22, 2012 So no? I would like to see a proper statistical analysis to be presise. No doubt that number 5 finds himself in a real catch 22. He needs minutes to shoot well but frankly, he has done nothing to deserve them or is likely to get them. Face it, he's had some just awful games for us. When he hit that huge 3 against Can't to get that run started I was hoping that he was getting back his form but it just wasn't to be. I feel bad for him but we need our best on the floor. He's not the first senior in college basketball to be bumped from his starting spot. The tough part is that he's always hustled and played hard and I am sure this situation has been eating him up. Through it all though, I can still see him helping this team down the stretch. The shooting stroke and putting have a lot in common. When you get that confidence going the hole starts looking like a hula hoop. I believe that lack of confidence is the root of the problem. You just can't play scared and play well. Also, I always thought of him as a catch and shoot guy, not so much as a guy that needed to get his feet set. Maybe I'm all wet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted February 22, 2012 Report Share Posted February 22, 2012 So no? I would like to see a proper statistical analysis to be presise. The broad season trend is all that's required to show the connection between average PT and average shooting percentage over the course of a season. Statistically, the finer game-to-game ups and downs are not particularly relevant to the season trend. In this case we can look at the average PT and shooting percentage trend lines over the course of two seasons, and they track pretty closely. I'm not aware of any existing charts that include all the fine detail you are requesting. But if you really want to dig in and analyze it on a game-by-game, shot-by-shot basis, have at it. All the tools are on StatSheet.com. All it takes is time and someone who believes that doing all that work would be a productive use of their time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BirdZip Posted February 22, 2012 Report Share Posted February 22, 2012 Let's not let a juvenile need to try and prove someone wrong (especially by nitpicking) hijack this thread. There are obviously too many other variables involved to prove anything conclusively, but if the data set is large enough, you could argue for a correlation. If two attributes or measurements show a tendency to vary together, then they are indeed correlated. That does not, however, mean that one is the cause of the other. Some other factor could be influencing both of these. Or, perhaps one is indeed causing the other, but it is in the opposite direction (less PT because the shooting is bad). We may never know... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skip-zip Posted February 22, 2012 Report Share Posted February 22, 2012 Also, I always thought of him as a catch and shoot guy, not so much as a guy that needed to get his feet set. Maybe I'm all wet. Getting your feet set should have nothing to do with whether you are a "catch and shoot" guy, or not. Players who have good focus and patience can find their balance fairly consistently when they shoot a jump shot. I think this has always been an issue with him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted February 22, 2012 Report Share Posted February 22, 2012 @BirdZip, you make some really good points. I'll try to explain in a little greater detail how I interpret Nitro's stats: * Last season, Nitro started all 36 games, averaging 26 minutes per game and 38.9% on 3-point shooting -- 4th best 3-point shooting in the MAC and 104th best in the country. * This season, Nitro started the first 8 games, averaging 29 minutes per game and 38.7% on 3-point shooting -- comparable to last season. * Beginning with the 9th game, he was moved from starter to sub and had his PT significantly reduced. * Over the last 19 games, Nitro averaged 17.4 minutes per game and 26.2% on 3-point shooting -- an abrupt drop in both minutes and shooting percentage, not a gradual decline. * In his first 2 seasons, Nitro came off the bench and played limited minutes, averaging 33.3% on 3-point shooting as a sub both seasons. * In his 3rd season, his 3-point percentage went up significantly along with his starter status and minutes per game. * In his 4th season, he continued shooting roughly the same 3-point percentage in the first 8 games where he continued as a starter playing long minutes as he did as a junior. * When he was relegated back to his freshman/sophomore status of playing shorter minutes off the bench, his 3-point shooting average almost immediately fell back even lower than his freshman/sophomore seasons. Now, anyone is free to draw any conclusions they want from this. We all have access to the numbers, but none of us knows all the peripheral factors involved. My personal opinion is that it relates to Brian Walsh going from sub to starter at the same time that Nitro went from starter to sub. Walsh has turned out to be a more effective all-around backcourt player than Nitro, not only hitting 3s at a higher percentage but doing other things more consistently, such as rebounding and playing defense. I believe that Nitro is at his best as a starter playing long minutes and not so good as a sub playing shorter minutes off the bench, as his career stats attest. Problem is, he's not as effective as Walsh, whose stats show that he is more productive both off the bench and as a starter than Nitro. From my perspective, it's a shame that Nitro cannot seem to perform at as high a level as a sub as he did as a starter last season and the beginning of this season. The influx of new and talented players this season may be great for the Zips as a team. But the guy who's suffering most is Nitro. I think he's become discouraged and that his performance is suffering for it. Anyway, that's my theory based on the numbers, the trends and what I've seen. I'd be interested in hearing other theories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akronzips71 Posted February 23, 2012 Report Share Posted February 23, 2012 If we want to go anyplace in the post season Nitro needs to be a bench warmer. Lately every time he winds up for a 3 it is an Akron turnover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Hip Zip Posted February 23, 2012 Report Share Posted February 23, 2012 I need no analysis to attempt to explain what is wrong with #5. He's lost his confidence, he's lost his game. My heart bled for him tonight, watching him was painful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akronzips71 Posted February 23, 2012 Report Share Posted February 23, 2012 I need no analysis to attempt to explain what is wrong with #5. He's lost his confidence, he's lost his game. My heart bled for him tonight, watching him was painful. He has to take one for the team and sit it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Z Posted February 23, 2012 Report Share Posted February 23, 2012 I need no analysis to attempt to explain what is wrong with #5. He's lost his confidence, he's lost his game. My heart bled for him tonight, watching him was painful.Go with what you see on the floor, it never lies, stats do. It separates the winners in Vegas from the losers every time. That's why they give you the trend sheet for free. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zipmeister Posted February 23, 2012 Report Share Posted February 23, 2012 Let's not let a juvenile need to try and prove someone wrong (especially by nitpicking) hijack this thread. There are obviously too many other variables involved to prove anything conclusively, but if the data set is large enough, you could argue for a correlation. If two attributes or measurements show a tendency to vary together, then they are indeed correlated. That does not, however, mean that one is the cause of the other. Some other factor could be influencing both of these. Or, perhaps one is indeed causing the other, but it is in the opposite direction (less PT because the shooting is bad). We may never know... You don't have to argue for a correlation; every variable is correlated with every other variable although sometimes the correlation is weak or negative. I suggest running a Granger Causality test once you have the data set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil Posted February 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2012 I thought Nitro had a good game even though he still is struggling with the 3 ball. He drove to the basket, had a couple of nice assists and crashed the boards picking up an offensive rebound. All of his shots were open and he was not forcing them. I was surprised to see the 3 turnovers. I know one was on a charge that I thought could have gone either way. Looking at Dave's stats, I think he needs to adjust his game to coming off the bench. I am sure that is tough on the psych of a senior to watch your playing time diminish but this is a very talented team. I think it would help his game to move in a little and hit some open twos till he can find his shooting touch behing the 3 line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in Green Posted February 23, 2012 Report Share Posted February 23, 2012 Go with what you see on the floor, it never lies, stats do. It separates the winners in Vegas from the losers every time. That's why they give you the trend sheet for free. I prefer the old line about the reliability of going with your gut because you can always be sure of what it's full of. But since I have an aversion to what the gut is full of, I'm stuck with trying to make sense of those silly numbers that don't mean anything. The silliest stat of all is the final score. What kind of BS is that about the team with the most points always winning? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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