Nitro

[Dr Z]

If your going to directly reply to my posts, at the very least read them. I never wrote "gut." Please stop trying to twist my words.

[Captain Kangaroo]

I need no analysis to attempt to explain what is wrong with #5. He's lost his confidence, he's lost his game. My heart bled for him tonight, watching him was painful.

His shooting was painful to watch, but going into OU and K.e.n.t., and The Q, we'll need him. Seniors are needed for those types of games. My gut feeling is he'll rise to the occasion. I have no stats to back it up, other than what he did last season. KD still has faith in him... he pretty much has to believe in him because we're going to need our full 9-man rotation contributing to their full potential if we're going to do anything extra-special in March.

He still is hustling his butt off. He just needs a slump-buster.

[wadszip]

His shooting was painful to watch, but going into OU and K.e.n.t., and The Q, we'll need him. Seniors are needed for those types of games. My gut feeling is he'll rise to the occasion. I have no stats to back it up, other than what he did last season. KD still has faith in him... he pretty much has to believe in him because we're going to need our full 9-man rotation contributing to their full potential if we're going to do anything extra-special in March.

He still is hustling his butt off. He just needs a slump-buster.

Right now, he's just trying too hard to get that slump-busting three. It's obvious that he's struggling and pressing too hard to try to snap out of it. He just needs to relax and go with the flow of the game. And that flow isn't jacking up a 3-pointer as soon as he gets the ball on the wing (which he did twice tonight).

Personally, I think he needs to realize that he is never going to play 30 minutes a night this year, nobody on this team will. Even Zeke, who didn't commit a foul, only played 27 minutes. This team is nine deep and all nine are going to play. I think if he realizes that and accepts that as reality, he can produce a productive 20 minutes per game. If he can't come to that grasp, and he tries to hard to prove that he's a 30-minute a game player, the best move could be to take him completely out of the rotation. Obviously, that would hurt the Zips' depth, but right now, Brett is hurting the team way more than being a man down in the rotation due to the fact that he is forcing the issue.

Like Zeke (when he is called for an early foul), the biggest thing holding Brett back seems to be the mental side. Granted, I'm no shrink, but to me, it appears that Brett thinks should be playing 30 minutes a game and is trying too hard to prove that should be the case. When in fact, he could be shooting 50 percent from 3-point land and scoring 12-14 points a game and he still wouldn't reach that mark, not with capable guys like Chauncey, Q and Brian Walsh competing for minutes at that same position. Those other guys I've mentioned seem like they all understand that and aren't letting the number of minutes affect their games. Brett just needs to get on that same page.

After watching this team at least 25 times this year (either in person, TV or streaming) this team doesn't have a lot of me guys. Brett can reverse the ball on the wing, move to a spot, get open and get the ball back for an open look. He doesn't need to press to get his. It'll come within the flow. That's something Chauncey seems to have grasped and guess what, he's been getting a ton of wide open looks and is knocking those shots down ... and as much as I like Chauncey's overall game, he's not the pure shooter Brett is. But right now, he's a WAY better option.

[wadszip]

@BirdZip, you make some really good points. I'll try to explain in a little greater detail how I interpret Nitro's stats:

* Last season, Nitro started all 36 games, averaging 26 minutes per game and 38.9% on 3-point shooting -- 4th best 3-point shooting in the MAC and 104th best in the country.

* This season, Nitro started the first 8 games, averaging 29 minutes per game and 38.7% on 3-point shooting -- comparable to last season.

* Beginning with the 9th game, he was moved from starter to sub and had his PT significantly reduced.

* Over the last 19 games, Nitro averaged 17.4 minutes per game and 26.2% on 3-point shooting -- an abrupt drop in both minutes and shooting percentage, not a gradual decline.

* In his first 2 seasons, Nitro came off the bench and played limited minutes, averaging 33.3% on 3-point shooting as a sub both seasons.

* In his 3rd season, his 3-point percentage went up significantly along with his starter status and minutes per game.

* In his 4th season, he continued shooting roughly the same 3-point percentage in the first 8 games where he continued as a starter playing long minutes as he did as a junior.

* When he was relegated back to his freshman/sophomore status of playing shorter minutes off the bench, his 3-point shooting average almost immediately fell back even lower than his freshman/sophomore seasons.

Now, anyone is free to draw any conclusions they want from this. We all have access to the numbers, but none of us knows all the peripheral factors involved. My personal opinion is that it relates to Brian Walsh going from sub to starter at the same time that Nitro went from starter to sub. Walsh has turned out to be a more effective all-around backcourt player than Nitro, not only hitting 3s at a higher percentage but doing other things more consistently, such as rebounding and playing defense.

I believe that Nitro is at his best as a starter playing long minutes and not so good as a sub playing shorter minutes off the bench, as his career stats attest. Problem is, he's not as effective as Walsh, whose stats show that he is more productive both off the bench and as a starter than Nitro.

From my perspective, it's a shame that Nitro cannot seem to perform at as high a level as a sub as he did as a starter last season and the beginning of this season. The influx of new and talented players this season may be great for the Zips as a team. But the guy who's suffering most is Nitro. I think he's become discouraged and that his performance is suffering for it.

Anyway, that's my theory based on the numbers, the trends and what I've seen. I'd be interested in hearing other theories.

Great post. This is spot on. I and think it correlates to what I have speculated. Brett is comfortable as a 30 (or close to that) minute a game player. It's nothing physical, just that he hasn't adjusted to being less than that, and it's now a mental block.

And when you consider that this team has Walsh starting at the 2 (and I agree he is a more dynamic player than Brett) and Chauncey at the 3 (also a more dynamic player), Brett needs to realize his place ... and that's not at 30 minutes a night at the 2 ... or even at the 3, which he's capable of playing at the collegiate level.

Nobody is going to get those kind of minutes, especially when you consider that Walsh is a 2 (who can play the 1), Q is a 1-2-3 (more of a 2-3) and Chauncey is a 3 (that can also play the 2). It's still essentially four guys competing for two spots (2 and 3), especially since Abreu is the only true 1 and is as close to logging 30 minutes a game as anybody on this team.

Brett needs to realize his place (15-20 minutes a night) and perform well in those minutes. We've seen this from pretty much everybody else in the rotation. The answer to this team competing at its highest level isn't simply boosting Brett's minutes so that he plays well, but rather getting Brett to realize that he can be effective despite playing less minutes. That is the key.

Will it happen? I hope. But considering he's a senior now, he may just be wired (I'm assuming he was always a big fish in a small pond in WVA) to think that he is entitled to star-type minutes. And to be fair to Brett, he performed pretty well last year playing star-type minutes. But this isn't last year, and this roster, with Gilliam and Walsh eligible, is way better than who he was competing against a year ago.

[Dave in Green]

If your going to directly reply to my posts, at the very least read them. I never wrote "gut." Please stop trying to twist my words.

Hey, I'm sorry it wasn't clear that my post was intended to be in good humor. We've had a lot of back and forth over the years on the value of stats, and I thought it was all in good humor.

Please let me explain. I understood your previous post to say that you should trust your eyes and not stats. I have a good friend in California who's a professional magician performing at the Magic Castle in Hollywood. When I visit him there and try to figure out how he does his sleight of hand, he always tells me to stop trying to analyze it and just trust my eyes. Of course, magicians always tell you to trust your eyes because magicians are trained to trick your eyes into believing something they didn't really see.

So when I saw your line about trusting your eyes, it reminded me of my old magician friend and I had to laugh. That, in turn, reminded me of the old joke about the reliability of going with your gut because you can always be sure of what it's full of. I wasn't trying to twist your words at all. It was just a case of one good joke leading to another.

Anyway, I know you know that statistical analysis is important in sports and that it's now used extensively by many winning coaches. I take your stated denial of this on ZN.o as humor and respond to it with humor. I hope that clears the air.

[Jalapeño Zippy]

He just needs a slump-buster.

Is that like an easy woman? If so, he will definitely find that in Athens!