Another FCS/FBS Discussion Thread

[ctmjbowes@sbcglobal.net]

SEC! SEC! SEC! Louisville (who is one of the reasons NIU made a BCS game) is putting a hurting on Florida. Maybe NIU just got the wrong Florida team. Non-BCS teams are now 5-3 all time in BCS bowls but one of those losses and one win should be discounted because TCU and Boise State were forced to play each other one year. A 4-2 record is pretty impressive.

So, by extension, if Boise, TCU, NIU, (insert name of giant killer here), were re-positioned in one of the power conferences, based on their positive performance in one bowl game, would they become winners in those conferences? The big boys scream bloody murder when one of the little guys makes it into one of these big games, and I can see both sides of those arguments. I love the underdog and have especially loved it when Boise made noise, but I also appreciate that the big boys beat the crap out of each other, and recruit against each other, and pay their coaches NFL salaries, and yada yada yada, to compete as, well, big boys, and if I were one of those big boys I would be pissed if an "interloper" scraped their way into the big game. Having said all of that, and loving Boise and TCU making noise the last few years, I thought it was truly ridiculous that NIU was in the Orange Bowl. I still have no idea how that happened, especially with one loss, and they proved they didn't belong. When the little guy makes the big game, it hurts the cause of all little guys if said little guy doesn't perform.

[MDZip]

So, by extension, if Boise, TCU, NIU, (insert name of giant killer here), were re-positioned in one of the power conferences, based on their positive performance in one bowl game, would they become winners in those conferences? The big boys scream bloody murder when one of the little guys makes it into one of these big games, and I can see both sides of those arguments. I love the underdog and have especially loved it when Boise made noise, but I also appreciate that the big boys beat the crap out of each other, and recruit against each other, and pay their coaches NFL salaries, and yada yada yada, to compete as, well, big boys, and if I were one of those big boys I would be pissed if an "interloper" scraped their way into the big game. Having said all of that, and loving Boise and TCU making noise the last few years, I thought it was truly ridiculous that NIU was in the Orange Bowl. I still have no idea how that happened, especially with one loss, and they proved they didn't belong. When the little guy makes the big game, it hurts the cause of all little guys if said little guy doesn't perform.

I think if everyone is honest about it, NIU absolutely didn't belong in that game, but I love that they were. They didn't have a great showing but they didn't completely embarrass themselves either. You can't make a judgement on one bowl game a year but I think it was assumed in the first years that non-BCS teams would get destroyed if they happened to luck into the BCS formula that they set aside to placate all of the non-BCS schools (and with a formula I'm guessing they thought would only rarely come to pass when they set it up rather than happening almost every year). That hasn't been the case, non-BCS schools have held their own. Removing the one case of Boise v. TCU, only NIU and Hawaii have lost in these contests (and they are the two teams who really probably shouldn't have qualified).

So I do think that some schools, were they to be given the financial advantages of playing in a bigger conference could indeed at least hold their own in those conferences. If Boise joined the Big Ten, I think they could stay out of the Indiana category and at least be competitive in the conference. Other schools would simply become bottom feeders. Its simply not fair that a perennial bottom feeder in a major conference gets preference over schools that achieve in lower conferences. Would love to see how all schools would do under an NFL like revenue sharing plan, or I'm also intrigued by the idea of soccer style relegation.

[ctmjbowes@sbcglobal.net]

I think if everyone is honest about it, NIU absolutely didn't belong in that game, but I love that they were. They didn't have a great showing but they didn't completely embarrass themselves either. You can't make a judgement on one bowl game a year but I think it was assumed in the first years that non-BCS teams would get destroyed if they happened to luck into the BCS formula that they set aside to placate all of the non-BCS schools (and with a formula I'm guessing they thought would only rarely come to pass when they set it up rather than happening almost every year). That hasn't been the case, non-BCS schools have held their own. Removing the one case of Boise v. TCU, only NIU and Hawaii have lost in these contests (and they are the two teams who really probably shouldn't have qualified).

So I do think that some schools, were they to be given the financial advantages of playing in a bigger conference could indeed at least hold their own in those conferences. If Boise joined the Big Ten, I think they could stay out of the Indiana category and at least be competitive in the conference. Other schools would simply become bottom feeders. Its simply not fair that a perennial bottom feeder in a major conference gets preference over schools that achieve in lower conferences. Would love to see how all schools would do under an NFL like revenue sharing plan, or I'm also intrigued by the idea of soccer style relegation.

Agreed! Here's a question though: how much of the prominence of programs like Boise is related to structural stuff that would disappear if those schools joined other conferences? Would Boise still be Boise if they were part of the Big 12? If they had to recruit against the Big 12? Would they win like crazy against Big 12 programs year in and year out?

It surely would be cool as hell to see regional mega conferences based on strict geographical definitions, using the Euro Soccer relegation program wouldn't it? Can you imagine the Big Ten being defined geographically and rigidly, and the year coming when, say, Indiana and Purdue would be dropped for NIU and Can't State? How cool would that be. Hey Indiana, welcome to the MAC! So impossibly and utterly never going to happen, but so cool to think about. To get back to my original point though, part of what makes programs like Boise what they are is the fact that they gain absolute domination of their conferences, sail through their schedules and take on the larger programs in a bowl game, primed after a year of domination. What if Boise had to play a conference schedule of Big 12 or SEC teams, get beaten up all year, and only then play in a bowl game? Would they be the same? As strong?

[MDZip]

Agreed! Here's a question though: how much of the prominence of programs like Boise is related to structural stuff that would disappear if those schools joined other conferences? Would Boise still be Boise if they were part of the Big 12? If they had to recruit against the Big 12? Would they win like crazy against Big 12 programs year in and year out?

It surely would be cool as hell to see regional mega conferences based on strict geographical definitions, using the Euro Soccer relegation program wouldn't it? Can you imagine the Big Ten being defined geographically and rigidly, and the year coming when, say, Indiana and Purdue would be dropped for NIU and Can't State? How cool would that be. Hey Indiana, welcome to the MAC! So impossibly and utterly never going to happen, but so cool to think about. To get back to my original point though, part of what makes programs like Boise what they are is the fact that they gain absolute domination of their conferences, sail through their schedules and take on the larger programs in a bowl game, primed after a year of domination. What if Boise had to play a conference schedule of Big 12 or SEC teams, get beaten up all year, and only then play in a bowl game? Would they be the same? As strong?

If a team like Boise joined a conference like the Big-12, they surely wouldn't dominate it, but I'd bet they would be competitive after some time. Many schools in the BCS conferences aren't any "better" or more deserving than those in the non-BCS conferences. I don't think it's a matter of commitment, it's a matter of funding. In other words, I don't think it is a guarantee that someone jumping from non-BCS to BCS automatically dooms them to the bottom of the heap. We have a nice test case for that right now in Utah, I am interested in seeing where they finish in the next few years, they were 3-6 in the PAC-12 this year.

[MDZip]

And no secret here - NIU reportedly told by an Orange Bowl rep - "We didn't even want you here". No kidding, geez is that because the bowl games always have been and always will be about nothing but money? The only reason the playoff has been approved is they think they can make even more money that way. When they discover their new cow also hemorrhages money, suddenly those playoffs will expand too.

[GP1]

I don't think it's a matter of commitment, it's a matter of funding.

It's a matter of finding lightning in a bottle. There isn't a school that can't find high level of success for at least a year or two. Can't did it and NIU did it this year. The structure that STZ keeps writing about is real. From alumni support to TV contracts to financial support, etc., the BCS conferences have a huge advantage.

The BCS schools aren't going to willingly give away their money so the non BCS schools can waste it. The more someone gets, they more they want. What more can the BCS schools get out of the non BCS schools that they aren't already getting? They use the non BCS schools for money making home games and preparation for their conference schedules. They can't possibly schedule more games against non BCS schools than they already do, so what's the answer? When the well runs dry, you abandon the well. The only thing the BCS schools can do at this point to make more money to fund their bloated building process is to play each other exclusively, charge enormous amounts for tickets which people will pay willingly, charge enormous amounts for television rights which networks will willingly pay and have a playoff that will rake in more cash than the ncaa basketball tournament which will get better ratings than the basketball tournament.

We are living in sort of an old science fiction movie. You guys remember the type. Aliens come to Earth to kill everyone and use up our resources. When they are used up, they go to another planet and do the same thing. The BCS schools have just about used up everything they can use from the non BCS schools and they are going to move on. It's very logical in many ways.

[ctmjbowes@sbcglobal.net]

A little research goes a long way, and my recent digging around confirmed for me the extremely large, truly insurmountable funding differences in FBS programs. When the premier programs pay their head coaches 5+ million dollars, and FCS-inspired programs like Akron pay 375K, it's crazy to think that the smaller programs can ever compete with any consistency. Oh, and the schools that pay those mega salaries are typically doing it through their athletic department budgets, from money generated from donors, ticket sales, licensing, etc. If a program can generate enough money from those streams to pay the head coach that kind of salary, stop and think for a second about how much money is floating around that program, and how many donors are throwing into the kitty. It's absolutely impossible to compete with that unless you're already in that same sphere of money and influence.

[Zips Win!]

It's a matter of finding lightning in a bottle. There isn't a school that can't find high level of success for at least a year or two. Can't did it and NIU did it this year. The structure that STZ keeps writing about is real. From alumni support to TV contracts to financial support, etc., the BCS conferences have a huge advantage.

The BCS schools aren't going to willingly give away their money so the non BCS schools can waste it. The more someone gets, they more they want. What more can the BCS schools get out of the non BCS schools that they aren't already getting? They use the non BCS schools for money making home games and preparation for their conference schedules. They can't possibly schedule more games against non BCS schools than they already do, so what's the answer? When the well runs dry, you abandon the well. The only thing the BCS schools can do at this point to make more money to fund their bloated building process is to play each other exclusively, charge enormous amounts for tickets which people will pay willingly, charge enormous amounts for television rights which networks will willingly pay and have a playoff that will rake in more cash than the ncaa basketball tournament which will get better ratings than the basketball tournament.

We are living in sort of an old science fiction movie. You guys remember the type. Aliens come to Earth to kill everyone and use up our resources. When they are used up, they go to another planet and do the same thing. The BCS schools have just about used up everything they can use from the non BCS schools and they are going to move on. It's very logical in many ways.

While I do agree that change is coming, I do think that the scheduling aspect of the BCS school division will be a huge problem. That is, unless they keep the current format of scheduling non-bcs schools.

I find it hard to believe that the bcs schools will all agree to play each other exclusively, even if it is for a few more TV bucks. Most budgets are built on 8 home games and there is no way that can be sustained unless they play non-bcs schools or force the bottom half of the bcs division to play 4 home games so tosu can get 8. And if you give them time, pretty soon they will be demainding 9 or 10 home games.... Eventually they will piss each other off so change may still be a few years away...Will a 14 game schedule be an option?

[GP1]

I find it hard to believe that the bcs schools will all agree to play each other exclusively, even if it is for a few more TV bucks. Most budgets are built on 8 home games and there is no way that can be sustained unless they play non-bcs schools or force the bottom half of the bcs division to play 4 home games so tosu can get 8. And if you give them time, pretty soon they will be demainding 9 or 10 home games.... Eventually they will piss each other off so change may still be a few years away...Will a 14 game schedule be an option?

There is another way to look at it. Is it the number of home games or the amount of money they can make? More games could equal more money. Fewer games could also equal more money depending on price points for items sold.

What if they did have a 14 game season with 7 home games in lieu of 8 home games AND they only played each other? They could easily make up the difference in revenue in increased prices for tickets, concessions, parking, alumni donation for ticket reservations, etc.

In my opinion, the amount of home games teams like OSU and others play has to do with more than money. Does it make more money? Yes. It is also a method whereby they are able to stack up easy wins and create the illusion of greatness and most importantly, stay in the conversation for the BCS Championship. Unless you are an SEC team, you more or less have to go undefeated to make the BCS Championship. Current scheduling is done with that in mind. When the BCS teams separate, a playoff will take effect. With a playoff, there is less of a need to go undefeated and more of a need to just make the playoffs, so early season losses are not as important.

[johnnyzip84]

While I do agree that change is coming, I do think that the scheduling aspect of the BCS school division will be a huge problem. That is, unless they keep the current format of scheduling non-bcs schools.

I find it hard to believe that the bcs schools will all agree to play each other exclusively, even if it is for a few more TV bucks. Most budgets are built on 8 home games and there is no way that can be sustained unless they play non-bcs schools or force the bottom half of the bcs division to play 4 home games so tosu can get 8. And if you give them time, pretty soon they will be demainding 9 or 10 home games.... Eventually they will piss each other off so change may still be a few years away...Will a 14 game schedule be an option?

This is a very good point. One might say that the "big boys" can make up for fewer home games with more TV money, if they ever end up playing themselves exclusively.

I still maintain that it will be problematic to determine who is in and who is out of the Super 64. Will a traditonally mediocre team like Stanford, who has been hot the last 5 or 6 years, make the club? Does TCU get in Ibecause the Big 12 nabbed them and Boise get left out because they're stuck in the MWC? What about Vandy and Northwestern? It's a given that football is the driver, but will basketball have any impact on decisions whatsoever?

There are many, many additional questions. If these schools leave the NCAA, will it be for football only? Will their other sports stay in the NCAA? As they say, the devil is in the details. I'm not saying that change isn't on the horizon. It just make take more time than some of us think, and it may not be as drastic in the end.

[GP1]

There are many, many additional questions. If these schools leave the NCAA, will it be for football only? Will their other sports stay in the NCAA?

These questions are easy to answer. No and no.

The money made by the NCAA Basketball Tournament is the vast majority of the revenue the NCAA uses to operate the NCAA. The schools can take that money and put it in their own pockets while at the same time funding a much less bloated bureaucracy to manage their own division.

[johnnyzip84]

These questions are easy to answer. No and no.

The money made by the NCAA Basketball Tournament is the vast majority of the revenue the NCAA uses to operate the NCAA. The schools can take that money and put it in their own pockets while at the same time funding a much less bloated bureaucracy to manage their own division.

If it happens as you say, then college basketball will become somewhat chaotic. I would argue that the remaining NCAA hoops squads would be at least as competive as the top 64 (based on football only) teams. The public won't be duped into thinking the Super 64 is THE clear top end of collegiate hoops.

You could argue that the competiton will be good for the sport.

Now would THESE teams (hoops) play each other exclusively? Makes for one dull regular season, if the 64 teams end up having their own season ending tourney outside of the NCAA.

[GP1]

If it happens as you say, then college basketball will become somewhat chaotic. I would argue that the remaining NCAA hoops squads would be at least as competive as the top 64 (based on football only) teams. The public won't be duped into thinking the Super 64 is THE clear top end of collegiate hoops.

You could argue that the competiton will be good for the sport.

Now would THESE teams (hoops) play each other exclusively? Makes for one dull regular season, if the 64 teams end up having their own season ending tourney outside of the NCAA.

Never underestimate how easy it is to dupe the America people when it comes to sports. In time, the money will swamp schools that aren't in the top tier. The tv networks will pretend there are no other teams and they will soon be forgotten.

A dull regular season? Any more than the current dull regular season, or the now dull conference tournaments, or the now dull first round of the NCAA tournament? Does it really matter if Duke beats a 20-10 NC A&T or a 10-20 (insert bottom dweller Big Ten, ACC, SEC, etc school name here) in the first round? I follow sports pretty closely and I cannot name a single first round match up from last year and it has only been nine months.

The big schools want money and they want it now so athletic directors can get it on their resumes. Things like competition and excitement are secondary as the illusion of those two can always be created.

[ctmjbowes@sbcglobal.net]

OK JZ84, you're examining the much larger picture, and wondering about structural issues starting from the top of the overall heap. At the level where Akron exists, if you assume that we're starting by talking about the best fit for the football program at its current overall level of resource commitment, historical record, recruiting, attendance, etc, I would argue that the program exists in a slice of the world that includes the WAC, the lesser Sunbelt teams, a couple of MAC teams, and you can throw in upper-level FCS teams into that mix. Now, if Akron and those programs were to somehow form a union, which, if any, of those universities would make good overall fits with Akron? When asking this question, I'm thinking along the lines of which of those universities maintain quality basketball programs, whether any of them play good soccer, geographic concerns, etc.

My first thoughts are that you could build a structure/league that would nicely run from the midwest right down into Florida. There are also plenty of interior/plains state programs and even some western programs if you want them to be in the mix. Include schools that commit resources in similar manners and are stuck at the bottom of FBS in football, call it an FCS league for football, and off you go. I don't understand why the biggest boys can mix and match to suit their needs but schools like Akron sit and wait to see how the shite is going to roll down onto them. There is a stratum that can be created by schools with similar levels of existence that would work well for all of them. I think that you could probably find a good mix in basketball from this same group, although I don't know about soccer. If Proenza gave you the mission of creating such a beast, what would it look like?

[johnnyzip84]

@GP1

So quite possibly schools like Duke, Kentucky, Georgetown, Syracuse, etc would be relagated to second tier in college hoops? Sorry, but I can't agree that people will buy this. I also don't think the Super 64, going completely on their own, is a foregone conclusion. I think another possible scenario is the NCAA gives the new top division de facto independence in football matters, but still keeps all schools under the NCAA umbrella and continues to run the other sports much like they do now.

@STZ

If I was tasked to identify like-minded schools for Akron to join in a new second tier, I would start by including the entire MAC. This takes into account the fact that several of the current MAC football powers are pretty weak in hoops. I would probably include all of the Sunbelt, most of CUSA, much of the Big East, a few FCS teams (the cream of the CAA, MVC and Southern conferences), and perhaps a few "big boy" castoffs (Vandy, Wake, Duke, N'Western, Indiana all come to mind). As much as I like soccer, I don't think it would be a PRIMARY concern in such a study.

[ctmjbowes@sbcglobal.net]

@GP1

So quite possibly schools like Duke, Kentucky, Georgetown, Syracuse, etc would be relagated to second tier in college hoops? Sorry, but I can't agree that people will buy this. I also don't think the Super 64, going completely on their own, is a foregone conclusion. I think another possible scenario is the NCAA gives the new top division de facto independence in football matters, but still keeps all schools under the NCAA umbrella and continues to run the other sports much like they do now.

@STZ

If I was tasked to identify like-minded schools for Akron to join in a new second tier, I would start by including the entire MAC. This takes into account the fact that several of the current MAC football powers are pretty weak in hoops. I would probably include all of the Sunbelt, most of CUSA, much of the Big East, a few FCS teams (the cream of the CAA, MVC and Southern conferences), and perhaps a few "big boy" castoffs (Vandy, Wake, Duke, N'Western, Indiana all come to mind). As much as I like soccer, I don't think it would be a PRIMARY concern in such a study.

The problem with looking at it that way is that I have no doubt that much of the way that universities size each other up is based on resources and money committed to their athletic programs. I'm with you on the MAC and the Sunbelt, but like it or not, C-USA and the Big East spend much more on their athletic programs than do any of the schools in the MAC or the Sunbelt. I suspect that much of the reason that the Big East won't give MAC teams a sniff for membership, beyond potential TV markets that we've talked about before, is based very much on commitment of resources. I keep on harping on it, but look at Cincinnati as an example. Very similar university to Akron over all, but they pay their head football coach 2,000,000 bucks a year! If I'm a Big East president, I look at MAC schools and the paltry investments they make in football and I'm just not interested in them. Also, the Sunbelt has two tiers when it comes to resources committed, so I would aim for some, but not all of those programs. You are looking at results, while I'm looking at the $$$ involved, because I have become convinced that long term, it's the money that dictates everything else, and that results on the field are a lagging indicator.

[GP1]

@GP1

So quite possibly schools like Duke, Kentucky, Georgetown, Syracuse, etc would be relagated to second tier in college hoops? Sorry, but I can't agree that people will buy this.

Georgetown, yes. The others, no.

After a couple of years, nobody will care. Change will be hard on some and a Georgetown could lose out.

[johnnyzip84]

Georgetown, yes. The others, no.

After a couple of years, nobody will care. Change will be hard on some and a Georgetown could lose out.

Then 64 must not be a hard and fast number for you. I challenge you to pick 64 teams, based on the total strength of their football program (resources, funding, success), and still include the likes of Duke, Kentucky, and Syracuse.

[K92]

Then 64 must not be a hard and fast number for you. I challenge you to pick 64 teams, based on the total strength of their football program (resources, funding, success), and still include the likes of Duke, Kentucky, and Syracuse.

There's the rub, John. A lot of shitty football programs would be grandfathered into the Big 64. I can't see any conference cutting out the dead weight can you?

[GP1]

Then 64 must not be a hard and fast number for you.

It is not. Current BCS conferences less the Big East plus four schools that meet a strick entrance criteria. Then the doors shut forever and universities can return to the business of educating people. This country needs more innovation coming out of universities and fewer new stadiums, arenas and indoor football practice arenas.

[johnnyzip84]

There's the rub, John. A lot of shitty football programs would be grandfathered into the Big 64. I can't see any conference cutting out the dead weight can you?

That would be surprising, but not impossible of course. I really think college hoops is the "fly in the ointment" to the creation of the Big 64. Can it still be accomplished? Sure, but it's not a given in my book.

[K92]

That would be surprising, but not impossible of course. I really think college hoops is the "fly in the ointment" to the creation of the Big 64. Can it still be accomplished? Sure, but it's not a given in my book.

I agree. If it weren't for basketball, the Big 64® might already be a reality. I would live to be a fly on the wall in one of the ivory towers when the CFB power brokers speak candidly about their nefarious plans.

[ctmjbowes@sbcglobal.net]

Of course, as they make their plans, Akron has NO PLACE in the world that those power brokers envision. Akron needs to create their own world. High-end FCS in football, mid-major basketball and Super Premier Euro Whatever in soccer. That's how it should work.

[Dave in Green]

One thing is for certain in the new national championship playoff series that's slowly being pieced together with the existing major bowl games -- no MAC team will ever be eligible to play in the Sugar or Rose Bowls, even if they go undefeated and beat Alabama, Florida, LSU and Oregon in their OOC schedule:

Also, the highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (Big East, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will earn a berth in one of the six major bowls but will never be eligible for the Sugar or Rose bowls.

Rose and Sugar bowls will host college football's first national semifinals on Jan. 1, 2015

[Dave in Green]

Another story suggests that the Orange Bowl may join the Rose and Sugar Bowls in locking out the "Group of Five Conferences":

The development suggests, for the first time, the order of a three-year playoff bowl rotation. The six-bowl playoff format beginning after the 2014 season will feature so-called "contract" bowls Orange, Sugar and Rose tied to conferences. The other three bowls will go to open or "access" bowls without conference affiliations. The Fiesta Bowl as well as venues in Dallas and Atlanta are considered favorites to get those three spots.

Rose, Sugar likely to host first national semifinals in 2015