Bracketology Updates

[Dave in Green]

With Zips fan enthusiasm level amping up and more and more posts being made about various bracketology seedings popping up in various threads, I thought it might be a good idea to capture them all in their own thread. It's still way speculative, but fun to follow.

Jerry Palm has just upgraded the Zips from a #13 seed to a #12, facing #5 seed Marquette in San Jose.

Andy Glockner has also moved the Zips up to a #12, facing #5 Georgetown in Kansas City.

Joe Lunardi still has the Zips at a #13 playing #4 Kansas State in Kansas City, with a chance to meet tOSU in the second round.

Feel free to add others and update these as they change.

EDIT: I'm adding at the bottom of this post a link to a bracketology matrix that originalrowdy posted later in the thread. Having it in the first post will make it easier for everyone to find should they want to check it.

The 2013 Bracket Matrix Link

[GP1]

A long way to go, but this is fun.

Looking at Dave's post, only G'town worries me. I like the Zips against [Edit] Kansas State and Marquette.

If the Zips run the MAC and Tournament, they should be a 12 seed at worst.

[originalrowdy]

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

That is a matrix, with links to each ranker in blue at the top, of every major poll known to mankind. Teamrankings even has the Zips at a #10 seed. Most are in the #12-13 though.

Just thought this was a nice little go-to source for this thread.

[Dave in Green]

@originalrowdy, that is a fantastic site for viewing all the bracketology results. That means there's no need to post an update with a link every single time any bracketology is updated. All we need to do is check into that one site every day to see what movement there's been. We can just focus on a few important updates at individual sites as we see them. I'm going to add this link to my original post to make it easier for everyone to find that site. Thanks!

[Z.I.P.]

A long way to go, but this is fun.

Looking at Dave's post, only G'town worries me. I like the Zips against Can't State and Marquette.

If the Zips run the MAC and Tournament, they should be a 12 seed at worst.

Now either GP got his "K"s confused, or this system has now morphed into changing ANY K-school to "Can't State".

[originalrowdy]

@originalrowdy, that is a fantastic site for viewing all the bracketology results. That means there's no need to post an update with a link every single time any bracketology is updated. All we need to do is check into that one site every day to see what movement there's been. We can just focus on a few important updates at individual sites as we see them. I'm going to add this link to my original post to make it easier for everyone to find that site. Thanks!

Not a problem brotha. Heck, you've done a lot for ZN and, the way I figure it, if I can get you the stats easier, you can make heads or tails of stuff better than a lot of us. Glad to help!

[meatwad]

In Lunardi's latest at ESPN the Zips have been identified as a potential "bid stealer" should we not win the MAC Championship. I would post the blurb, but it's insider only and I don't want the moderators frowning on posting paid content on the board. If one gives their blessing I'll post the part relevant to the Zips.

Our at large chances are swelling...

Also, we're up to a 12 seed on the latest bracket on ESPN.

[LZIp]

In Lunardi's latest at ESPN the Zips have been identified as a potential "bid stealer" should we not win the MAC Championship. I would post the blurb, but it's insider only and I don't want the moderators frowning on posting paid content on the board. If one gives their blessing I'll post the part relevant to the Zips.

Our at large chances are swelling...

Also, we're up to a 12 seed on the latest bracket on ESPN.

If Lundardi is mentioning us a possible bid-stealer, I really like the chances. Just a week or so ago he was saying "no way" to that.

[Dave in Green]

Zips are getting massive love from the Team Rankings computers after last night's win. They currently project the Zips' chances of making the NCAA tournament at 95.4% -- 49.2% chance automatic bid, 46.2% chance at large bid. The Zips' most likely seed, according to their computers, is a stunning #8. This is the most optimistic projection anywhere, and is probably unrealistic. But Zips fans understand that it's more fun to be over-ranked than ignored.

[Zipmeister]

Zips are getting massive love from the Team Rankings computers after last night's win. They currently project the Zips' chances of making the NCAA tournament at 95.4% -- 49.2% chance automatic bid, 46.2% chance at large bid. The Zips' most likely seed, according to their computers, is a stunning #8. This is the most optimistic projection anywhere, and is probably unrealistic. But Zips fans understand that it's more fun to be over-ranked than ignored.

IF the Zips can win out, I think a 10 seed is highly probable. If not, I'm thinking a #13 at-large seed.

[bUAkronG]

Zips are getting massive love from the Team Rankings computers after last night's win. They currently project the Zips' chances of making the NCAA tournament at 95.4% -- 49.2% chance automatic bid, 46.2% chance at large bid. The Zips' most likely seed, according to their computers, is a stunning #8. This is the most optimistic projection anywhere, and is probably unrealistic. But Zips fans understand that it's more fun to be over-ranked than ignored.

How about the fact that the Zips are 2nd in the biggest gainers since yesterday... up 9.2% to 95.4%. First? Former Akron foe Creighton who jumps up 9.9% to 83.1%. If I'd have told you in early December that late in Febraury, the Zips would statistically have a better chance of making the dance than Creighton, would you have believed me? I'm thinking no.

On the contrary, OU's NCAA chances fell 6.0% to 41.1%. Today is good.

*edit* also, on the same page it lists those who have trended up in the last week. The Zips are 4th in highest jump, up 17.5% since last Thursday!

[Dave in Green]

@Zipmeister, I really appreciate your enthusiasm for the Zips being able to get an at-large bid, as others have also enthusiastically expressed after last night's win. But I've spent a lot of time reading a lot of different bubble watches by a lot of savvy sports journalists. While they are also enthusiastic about the Zips' winning streak and the way the team passes the "eye test," they all caution that you can never rely on the selection committee. There is a developing traffic jam of potential at-large teams, with some previously safe teams falling and other previously out-of-it teams rising. It appears as if many deserving teams will get left out when the last few, highly contested at-large bids are handed out. The Zips are not a lock, even if they win out but lose the MAC tournament championship game. They're just one of many good teams in the mix. We shouldn't let our enthusiasm create unrealistic expectations for something that's totally out of the team's control.

[akronzips71]

@Zipmeister, I really appreciate your enthusiasm for the Zips being able to get an at-large bid, as others have also enthusiastically expressed after last night's win. But I've spent a lot of time reading a lot of different bubble watches by a lot of savvy sports journalists. While they are also enthusiastic about the Zips' winning streak and the way the team passes the "eye test," they all caution that you can never rely on the selection committee. There is a developing traffic jam of potential at-large teams, with some previously safe teams falling and other previously out-of-it teams rising. It appears as if many deserving teams will get left out when the last few, highly contested at-large bids are handed out. The Zips are not a lock, even if they win out but lose the MAC tournament championship game. They're just one of many good teams in the mix. We shouldn't let our enthusiasm create unrealistic expectations for something that's totally out of the team's control.

If we win out we should be ranked in the teens in both polls.

I know we found a #25 that was left out of the dance.

I doubt you will find a #17 that was left out.

[originalrowdy]

If we win out we should be ranked in the teens in both polls.

I know we found a #25 that was left out of the dance.

I doubt you will find a #17 that was left out.

I've always been interested in seeing a list of all the teams who, going into selection sunday, were ranked in the T25 and snubbed from the dance. I remember they made a big deal about the 2003-04 Utah State team because they were the first that had happened to. I've never been able to find a complete list though. DiG???

[LZIp]

I've always been interested in seeing a list of all the teams who, going into selection sunday, were ranked in the T25 and snubbed from the dance. I remember they made a big deal about the 2003-04 Utah State team because they were the first that had happened to. I've never been able to find a complete list though. DiG???

Utah St is the only team in recent history that was ranked and was left out. I thought UNLV was once as well ranked #25, but cannot find anything on it.

[Z.I.P.]

Zips are getting massive love from the Team Rankings computers after last night's win. They currently project the Zips' chances of making the NCAA tournament at 95.4% -- 49.2% chance automatic bid, 46.2% chance at large bid. The Zips' most likely seed, according to their computers, is a stunning #8. This is the most optimistic projection anywhere, and is probably unrealistic. But Zips fans understand that it's more fun to be over-ranked than ignored.

Can anyone remember the last MAC team to receive a #8 seed? They knocked off the #9 seed Duke Blue Devils in the first round. It can be done!

[Dave in Green]

I've searched and have not found a "list" of top 25 teams who were excluded from the NCAA tournament. Maybe there've been more than Utah State, maybe not. The top 25 is usually packed with teams that have enough credentials outside of being ranked in the top 25 to qualify for an at-large bid regardless of whether or not they're in the top 25. It's unusual for a team to be ranked in the top 25 without having strong credentials, but it happens. For example, Louisiana Tech is in the top 25 of the AP poll but not the Coaches poll. Yet Louisiana Tech has a weaker selection committee profile than the Zips, and the Zips' profile is not strong enough to guarantee a lock on an at-large bid.

Look, I'm just the messenger here. I've put hours and hours into studying this. I know what all the folks who earn their living analyzing this think of the Zips' situation. They know how the selection committee thinks. Many of them have been through the mock selection committees put on by the NCAA. They are in almost universal agreement that if the Zips win out but lose in the MAC tournament championship game that they will have a shot at an at-large bid -- a shot, not a lock. The top 25 polls may help the Zips a bit. But it is not listed as one of the considerations on the NCAA Selection Sheet.

I think it's a shame that many Zips fans were so disappointed back in 2007 when they had unrealistic expectations about the Zips having the overall credentials to merit an at-large bid. I'd hate to see that disappointment happen again. I'm just trying to be realistic here based on all available data. But it's fruitless to get into an infinite debate over whether the Zips would have a shot or be a lock. If anyone is dead set on believing the Zips would be a lock, go for it.

[originalrowdy]

I've searched and have not found a "list" of top 25 teams who were excluded from the NCAA tournament. Maybe there've been more than Utah State, maybe not. The top 25 is usually packed with teams that have enough credentials outside of being ranked in the top 25 to qualify for an at-large bid regardless of whether or not they're in the top 25. It's unusual for a team to be ranked in the top 25 without having strong credentials, but it happens. For example, Louisiana Tech is in the top 25 of the AP poll but not the Coaches poll. Yet Louisiana Tech has a weaker selection committee profile than the Zips, and the Zips' profile is not strong enough to guarantee a lock on an at-large bid.

...

Thanks for checking into that. I only asked because http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_basketba...ess#cite_note-3 indicates, in part, that there were multiple (or at least suggested by the plural use of the sentences. Quoted, in relevant part:

"Most teams in the Top 25 in the national polls or RPI are essentially guaranteed at-large berths even if they do not win their respective conference tournament. However, teams that have been ranked heading into Selection Sunday, but didn't win their conference tournament, have been left out (or "snubbed") by the selection committee despite what the polls and pundits may say. The Missouri Valley Conference has received the most snubs (5 RPI top 40 teams excluded), with Missouri State left out each of the last 9 years, despite RPI's of 21, 34, and 36). Another famous snub was in 2004, when Utah State completed the regular season with a record of 25-2 but was snubbed after losing in its conference tournament, even though it was ranked in the polls at the time."

[Class of 82]

I've searched and have not found a "list" of top 25 teams who were excluded from the NCAA tournament. Maybe there've been more than Utah State, maybe not. The top 25 is usually packed with teams that have enough credentials outside of being ranked in the top 25 to qualify for an at-large bid regardless of whether or not they're in the top 25. It's unusual for a team to be ranked in the top 25 without having strong credentials, but it happens. For example, Louisiana Tech is in the top 25 of the AP poll but not the Coaches poll. Yet Louisiana Tech has a weaker selection committee profile than the Zips, and the Zips' profile is not strong enough to guarantee a lock on an at-large bid.

Look, I'm just the messenger here. I've put hours and hours into studying this. I know what all the folks who earn their living analyzing this think of the Zips' situation. They know how the selection committee thinks. Many of them have been through the mock selection committees put on by the NCAA. They are in almost universal agreement that if the Zips win out but lose in the MAC tournament championship game that they will have a shot at an at-large bid -- a shot, not a lock. The top 25 polls may help the Zips a bit. But it is not listed as one of the considerations on the NCAA Selection Sheet.

I think it's a shame that many Zips fans were so disappointed back in 2007 when they had unrealistic expectations about the Zips having the overall credentials to merit an at-large bid. I'd hate to see that disappointment happen again. I'm just trying to be realistic here based on all available data. But it's fruitless to get into an infinite debate over whether the Zips would have a shot or be a lock. If anyone is dead set on believing the Zips would be a lock, go for it.

Good post, Dave.

I'm still of the opinion that Akron has to win the MACC to get in.

Rankings are really nice, but the NCAA is the NCAA and the selection process is what it is. Good, deserving teams are always left out. They will be this year, too. Depending on possible conference tourney upsets around the country, there could be more deseerving teams than usual left out in this topsy-turvy season of college basketball. But the bottom line for me is that there is absolutely no reason not to believe Akron will win the MACC. They're the best, deepest team in the conference.

Anyways, one game at a time. Right now, I just want to see Akron beat Buffalo on Saturday. And then on to the next one.

GO ZIPS!

[BirdZip]

Lunardi now has Akron as an 11 seed in Dayton vs Pitt.

How can the guy say a week or so ago that Akron has no chance at an At Large yet put them at 11 now?

[mes102]

Lunardi now has Akron as an 11 seed in Dayton vs Pitt.

How can the guy say a week or so ago that Akron has no chance at an At Large yet put them at 11 now?

On twitter, he said "one in three chance". So I'm not sure. And the fact that we're an 11 seed, and not one of the last four in(probably because he has us as the automatic bid), does that mean we're a little more solidified as a potential at-large?

[BirdZip]

On twitter, he said "one in three chance". So I'm not sure. And the fact that we're an 11 seed, and not one of the last four in(probably because he has us as the automatic bid), does that mean we're a little more solidified as a potential at-large?

I just figure if he has the teams that he himself claims are the last 4 in as 12 & 13 seeds, and Akron as an 11 seed, isn't he saying Akron is a better team? There are probably intricacies to the method that I don't understand.

[Big Zip]

An 11 seed in my opinion says he thinks we are between the 41st and 44th best team in the country.

This team deserves to play in the tournament and it will be a sad day if they lose out somehow. How is a loss to Penn State going to impact Michigan? Shouldn't a loss to a terrible team (defeated in their own conference) have some impact on your seeding? Hell it seems Middle Tennessee State seems to get more love than we do at times and we beat them.

[akronzips71]

Looks like an at large may have just opened up:

In a stunning announcement that could doom St. John's chances of making the NCAA Tournament, star guard D'Angelo Harrison, the captain and leading scorer for the Red Storm, has been suspended for the rest of the season, including the Big East Conference Tournament and any postseason tournaments, the university announced Friday.

Sources said Harrison, an emotional player who has challenged the coaching staff almost from the day he arrived on campus two years ago, seemed to making strides early in the season which is why coach Steve Lavin named him the captain. But he had not retained that inner growth and, as one source said, his conduct had become detrimental to the team.

Two sources said that there wasn't any defining issue in the last few weeks. Rather a compilation of not being respectful to coaches, tardiness to team functions and his demonstrative personality on the court led to the stunning suspension.

The suspension caught Harrison and his family by surprise. A source said he was very upset and devastated that he had let down his teammates. For all his displays of emotion on the court, Harrison has always supported his teammates and never shown them up.

Harrison met with head coach Steve Lavin and has had multiple conversations with his family as to whether to remain at St. John's. His loving grandmother, Angela Harrison, who raised D'Angelo and his brother Deandre, said the suspension caught them off guard.

Angela Harrison declined to go into details about the suspension but she made it clear her grandson had not violated any NCAA rules. Nor had he have any substance abuse issues.

"This is not about any illegal drugs or alcohol,'' Angela Harrison told The Post. "D'Angelo is an emotional young man but he is never been involved in anything like that. We were caught off guard by this suspension.''

Angela Harrison said she would travel from Missouri City, Texas to support her son in New York within the next day or two. She said D'Angelo was not withdrawing from the university and no decision had been made about next season although there was a desire for him to return to the good graces of the staff.

The loss of Harrison might be the pin that bursts the teams NCAA tournament bubble. He is the team's leading scorer at 18.3 points per game, third best in the Big East and tied for 42nd nationally.

The Johnnies are 16-11 overall and 8-7 in the Big East going into Saturday night's game against red hot Providence. On a team that is woeful on 3-point shooting (109-for-369, 29.5 percent), Harrison (58-of-184, 31 percent) has made more treys the rest of the team combined.

[Dave in Green]

I know we're all bummed out over the Zips loss, and some bracketologists may drop the Zips down a seed. But there's one little bright spot. The Team Rankings computers have consistently given the Zips the highest seed of all the bracketology websites. When they crunched all the numbers after all of yesterdays games, the Zips ended the day holding on to their projected #9 seed. It's hard to understand how this would happen except for the fact that their computers were already projecting that the Zips would have one more regular season loss, and the loss to Buffalo merely confirmed their statistical projection that the Zips were likely to be upset once. It did not change their opinion of how highly the Zips should be ranked. So no one should believe that this loss will suddenly cause the Zips to fall off the face of the earth. Remember that other teams are also being upset.