2014 MAC Tournament Watch

[skip-zip]

I don't have any evidence to support this, but I don't feel like Akron has ever had three key contributors (or even two) out at the same time over an extended period of time. Harney missed four games, McAdams is at five games missed and counting, Kretzer at three games and counting. To simplify, I'm not sure we can compare this team to past year's teams given the current situation.

True. But, you have to ask yourself if this team ever had the characteristics of most of those other teams even before those events. When have we ever struggled like this to win home MAC games in the last decade?

[UAZip0510]

True. But, you have to ask yourself if this team ever had the characteristics of most of those other teams even before those events. When have we ever struggled like this to win home MAC games in the last decade?

Toledo is the only team Akron has lost to at full strength at home in conference play. They're 5-2 overall in MAC home games so far. Sure, the wins haven't been pretty and the two losses were bad ones, but they haven't been awful at home or anything.

[Staton14]

I don't have any evidence to support this, but I don't feel like Akron has ever had three key contributors (or even two) out at the same time over an extended period of time. Harney missed four games, McAdams is at five games missed and counting, Kretzer at three games and counting. To simplify, I'm not sure we can compare this team to past year's teams given the current situation.

Any word on when Kretzer and McAdams are coming back? Hopefully Tuesday!

[UAZip0510]

Any word on when Kretzer and McAdams are coming back? Hopefully Tuesday!

I'm hoping the same. It's got to be a tough balance - you need them for the last two to get #4 but you don't want to rush it, have a setback, and lose them for the tournament.

[skip-zip]

Toledo is the only team Akron has lost to at full strength at home in conference play. They're 5-2 overall in MAC home games so far. Sure, the wins haven't been pretty and the two losses were bad ones, but they haven't been awful at home or anything.

Come on. Other than Ball State, and maybe NIU, they've all been a struggle, including the unbelievable late run to beat EMU. Hopefully the 2nd half we played last night is a sign of how we might be able to close out the last two games.

But you bring up something else I want to comment about. Toledo did indeed whoop us at home at full strength. Right now, that's my top candidate for teams I don't want to play in Cleveland.

[ZZZips]

Skip-zip -

I think your memory is faulty when you make this observation: "Just win two HOME games. In years past, this task would have been automatic. Can this team suck it up and follow that tradition?"

Not to take the statistician hat away from DIG but we have only won our last two home games before the MAC tourney one time in the last 6 years (2010-11). Not quite AUTOMATIC.

[Dave in Green]

@ZZZips, good fact checking. Our memories sometimes play tricks on us. That's why I frequently go back and check actual records to measure against my memories. The Zips have run up an impressive home record over the Coach Dambrot era. But over the last 5 seasons the Zips are only 6-4 in their final 2 conference games at the JAR. It's going to take a special effort to win these last 2. I was encouraged by the player attitude I saw at the JAR last night. The Zips played really hard, tough defense. They played with a sense of urgency I hadn't seen in awhile. If they play with that kind of effort in the last 2 games, they have at least a fair chance of winning both.

[skip-zip]

Skip-zip -

I think your memory is faulty when you make this observation: "Just win two HOME games. In years past, this task would have been automatic. Can this team suck it up and follow that tradition?"

Not to take the statistician hat away from DIG but we have only won our last two home games before the MAC tourney one time in the last 6 years (2010-11). Not quite AUTOMATIC.

Note that I meant that to be a commentary on our long-standing success winning home MAC games in general. But, that is interesting to discover that we haven't closed out the season at home in perfect fashion in past years. In fact, now that I think about it, we've lost several of those final home games vs. Can't in recent years, including last year the day after the Abreu issue, and the year Fisher hit that damn running 3 pointer from the corner.

Dave is right. With this team, it is going to take a special effort.

[UAZip0510]

Gut feeling - Akron loses Tuesday, beats Can't, OU drops another one, and we get the #4 seed.

[K92]

Didn't want to start a new thread for this, but some of ZN.o's finest are interviewed about the Zips chances in the tournament starting at 5:40.

[GJGood]

I am rooting for Akron (of course) , Miami, and Eastern on Friday night.

I believe that would give us the 4 seed as well as keep Ohio, Buffalo, and Toledo in the other half of the MAC Tourney bracket. Of course it would set up a semifinal with WMU potentially but at that point you're going to have to play the one seed no matter what and I prefer matching up with the Broncos there if it means we miss OU in the quarterfinals the night before.

[akronzips71]

OK, so do we go straight to Cleveland with a win on Friday?

[Dave in Green]

Yes, Zips go straight to the Q if they beat Can't Friday. If the Zips lose and OU wins, the Kitties own the tiebreaker. For the Zips, losing is not an option.

[zippy5]

I believe we've already secured a spot at the Q, with no campus games.

[skip-zip]

I believe we've already secured a spot at the Q, with no campus games.

Nope. Everyone in the #5 spot and below has to play a home game AND another game on Wednesday in order to decide the two teams that play the #3 and #4 seeds on Thursday.

This new format makes the #4 and #5 spot a HUGE difference.

[zippy5]

Oh wow, I thought top 6 went straight to Wednesday. So a win Friday saves us two games, pretty big deal.

[skip-zip]

I am rooting for Akron (of course) , Miami, and Eastern on Friday night.

I believe that would give us the 4 seed as well as keep Ohio, Buffalo, and Toledo in the other half of the MAC Tourney bracket. Of course it would set up a semifinal with WMU potentially but at that point you're going to have to play the one seed no matter what and I prefer matching up with the Broncos there if it means we miss OU in the quarterfinals the night before.

My thinking is that this might be the best scenario for us, if it turns out this way.

I have the teams I'd least want to play in this order:

1. Toledo

2. Buffalo

3. WMU

Your scenario would allow us to avoid the #1 and #2 teams on my list until the title game.

[skip-zip]

Oh wow, I thought top 6 went straight to Wednesday. So a win Friday saves us two games, pretty big deal.

Hang on. Maybe 5 and 6 get ONE bye.

We've never been there, so I think I might have missed a step.

EDIT: Geez this is more complicated than I thought.

6 thru 11 play on Monday

5 gets one bye to Wednesday

3 and 4 get two byes to Thursday

So, yes, it appears as if our worst scenario is that we at least skip the Monday home game.

This is based on what I see from last year.

[zippy5]

Hang on. Maybe 5 and 6 get ONE bye.

We've never been there, so I think I might have missed a step.

Looks like you're right. We've never had to deal with it, but that 4 seed is a huge deal.

[zippy5]

Hang on. Maybe 5 and 6 get ONE bye.

We've never been there, so I think I might have missed a step.

EDIT: Geez this is more complicated than I thought.

6 thru 11 play on Monday

5 gets one bye to Wednesday

3 and 4 get two byes to Thursday

So, yes, it appears as if our worst scenario is that we at least skip the Monday home game.

This is based on what I see from last year.

That was with Toledo being ineligible. Makes sense now, 5-12 play in mondays games. The 4 winners play each other who then meet 3 & 4 at the Q.

[ubxcretired]

Hang on. Maybe 5 and 6 get ONE bye.

We've never been there, so I think I might have missed a step.

EDIT: Geez this is more complicated than I thought.

6 thru 11 play on Monday

5 gets one bye to Wednesday

3 and 4 get two byes to Thursday

So, yes, it appears as if our worst scenario is that we at least skip the Monday home game.

This is based on what I see from last year.

Incorrect - don't go by last year. Toledo was ineligible for post season play last year, so there were only 11 teams in the tourny.

1-2 get a triple bye to the semis on Friday

3-4 get a double bye to the quarters on Thursday.

5-8 play at home against 9-12.

Current bracket:

via. www.ubbullrun.com

[MDZip]

Incorrect - don't go by last year. Toledo was ineligible for post season play last year, so there were only 11 teams in the tourny.

1-2 get a triple bye to the semis on Friday

3-4 get a double bye to the quarters on Thursday.

5-8 play at home against 9-12.

Current bracket:

If this bracket is correct (and I think it is, I can't find a place to verify it but it looks like the tiebreaker criteria is head to head, then division record for division foes and then then how you did against seeded teams top to bottom) if WMU holds that would give the Zips a huge break. I think they match up against WMU as well as any of the top teams and that would mean Buffalo and Toledo would have to fight in the semifinals). Even if the Bobkittens get the 5 seed they will have to win two games before they even get to the Zips. I actually like the way this is shaping up and wouldn't have a problem if the bracket stayed like this. Zips really need to beat the Flushes. here is a link to the Hustlebelt story on it. http://www.hustlebelt.com/2014/3/5/5472526/2014-mac-tournament-seeding-update?utm_source=hustlebelt&utm_medium=nextclicks&utm_campaign=articlebottom

[Dave in Green]

No, records against division foes are only used to break ties for division championships, not tournament seeding.

[MDZip]

No, records against division foes are only used to break ties for division championships, not tournament seeding.

Looks like the bracket is correct. Criteria B might only be used when a division championship is on the line but it appears in this particular case it will also determine the top seed from who is declared the division champion. Found this on the MAC sports site at http://www.mac-sports.com/Portals/20/MBD30414.pdf So by beating Buffalo the Zips may have given themselves a potential semifinal matchup with WMU (a three way tie with Buffalo WMU and Toledo would have given it to Toledo). One thing that really does work in the Zips favor is the fact that they truly have experience in winning these types of games, that may give them a little edge.

Ties in winning percentage, and thus for tournament, seeding positions shall be broken as follows:

1. Between TWO teams:

A. Head-to-head competition

B. Division Record (10 games)^

C. Winning percentage* vs. ranked conference teams (top to bottom, regardless of division, vs.

common opponents regardless of the number of times played)

D. Coin flip

2. For MULTIPLE (3 or more) team ties:

E. Total won-lost record/winning percentage* of games played among the tied teams

F. Two (2)-team tie-breaker procedure goes into effect (refer to A)

[NOTE: Once a three-team tie has been reduced to two teams, the two-team tiebreaker will go into effect.]

^ - For the purpose of determining the Division champion

* - Winning percentage is used instead of record because of situations where teams do not play each other

the same number of times. Therefore, a team that is 1-0 (1.000) would win the tiebreaker over a team

that is 1-1 (.500).

[GJGood]

If this bracket is correct (and I think it is, I can't find a place to verify it but it looks like the tiebreaker criteria is head to head, then division record for division foes and then then how you did against seeded teams top to bottom) if WMU holds that would give the Zips a huge break. I think they match up against WMU as well as any of the top teams and that would mean Buffalo and Toledo would have to fight in the semifinals). Even if the Bobkittens get the 5 seed they will have to win two games before they even get to the Zips. I actually like the way this is shaping up and wouldn't have a problem if the bracket stayed like this. Zips really need to beat the Flushes. here is a link to the Hustlebelt story on it. http://www.hustlebelt.com/2014/3/5/5472526/2014-mac-tournament-seeding-update?utm_source=hustlebelt&utm_medium=nextclicks&utm_campaign=articlebottom

I agree, except I wouldn't mind seeing #5 and #6 switch. that would mean the Zips would play either Eastern, Northern, Ball State, or the arch rival in the quarters and would not meet Toledo, Buffalo, or Ohio until the title game. That may be too much to ask for though. We just need to worry about securing the #4 seed and getting win #20 on senior night.