What type of offense do the Zips run?

[Dr Z]

I posed the question in a previous post about what type of offense we ran. I never really got an in depth answer from any ZN member. The coaching staff was gracious enough to give me a complete answer. The staff also wanted me to express how thought out they are on the offensive end of the floor. Hard to argue after a 90 point performance.Coach Dambrot runs a combination of different offenses. First he runs a fast break similar to NC which tries to get the ball inside. From there on ball reversal we screen down and the get into baseline runner, with our 4/5 men on blocks and a player running off their screens. If the backside post helps we flush hi for a hi/lo look. We can sprint into on ball screens and either pick and pop or pick and roll. We run a lot of quick hitters always looking to get the ball inside and then play out of the post. Depending on what the defense does will determine which cut we run. We have set plays to isolate individuals in the post, sets designed to shoot the 3 and sets designed to drive the ball. We can run a set that is motion offense, we can spread the floor and use the ball screen to create total defensive rotations. We run a lot of different things to utilize our personnel. Hope this gives you a quick overview of our offense.

[Hilltopper]

Wow! No wonder freshmen have trouble seeing the floor.

[Dave in Green]

Thanks for following through on that question, Dr Z. The answer helps explain why you never really got an in depth answer from any ZN member. Only a really serious student of the sport would have been able to identify in detail all the variations KD employs without a lot of analysis ..... or asking the coaching staff. It's great that the moderators on ZN use their connections with the UA staff to get answers to questions like this and share with all of us.

[Deeustin89]

Analyze all you want this is what i look at...of the 3 players that consume most of the minutes at the 1 and 2...62% of their shots are 3 pointers. This confirms my thoughts that despite what the philosophy says they are trying to do, basically it equates to alot of slow down play, swinging it around the perimeter, and shooting the trey. Roberts is a nice fit for this style. McNees you would think is a great fit for this. The combined lack of athleticism of this team also agrees with the slow down philosophy. There are several guys though that you look at their game and wonder "what the hell did Akron recruit you for, and why in the world did you go there?". Conyers, Humpty, and Zeke Marshall are guys who's games completely do not fit what Akron does offensively. All 3 are best fitted for an open court up and down type of game which favors the dribble drive offensively and forcing the defense to help off penetration. Akron does none of the above. But then again these are the 3 guys on this team that can run at all and they're almost never on the court at the same time.

[Zip Watcher]

Analyze all you want this is what i look at...of the 3 players that consume most of the minutes at the 1 and 2...62% of their shots are 3 pointers. This confirms my thoughts that despite what the philosophy says they are trying to do, basically it equates to alot of slow down play, swinging it around the perimeter, and shooting the trey.

Not what they're doing at all. The percentage of threes is that high .. but the Zips offense is predicated on getting the ball into the paint, and then passing out for open looks. The in paint penetration may be to post up, or it can be dribble penetrate.Most of the threes taken, at least the main goal, are open looks off rotations due to inside penetration. It's less frequent that the threes are thrown up from a skip pass or just tossing it around at the perimeter. The exception being perhaps when they're trying to kill clock, or it's on a 1 on 3 break or something like that.The Zips are successful when the ball goes inside-out. Open shooters shoot higher percentages.Go Zips!

[Deeustin89]

But there is next to zero scoring on the block on this team so there ends up being alot of swinging it around the perimeter and shooting 3's. That's pretty much all this offense is. Butter it up however you want, but the results tell the story. They may throw it in to the block, but it's immediately kicked back out , 3 passes later somebody is jacking up a trey. That's why they go so hot and so cold and either look great or have games where they look terrible offensively.

[Dave in Green]

I always find it helpful to check my impressions against actual statistics. According to statistics for all D1 teams, the Zips attempt 34.5% of all their field goal attempts from 3-point range. That ranks the Zips 112th out of 347 D1 teams.The D1 field goal attempt average is 32.5% from 3-point range, so the Zips' 34.5% is just 2% above average when compared with all 346 other D1 teams in the country. In other words, they're very close to average in this regard.D1 3-Point Attempt Percentage

[Dave in Green]

A little more statistical information on Zips field goal shooting:Their 35.3% 3-point percentage is 1.2% above the D1 average (34.1%).Their 49.8% 2-point percentage is 2.2% above the D1 average (47.6%).They score .353 x 3 = 1.059 points per 3-point shot attempt and .498 x 2 = .996 points per 2-point shot attempt.In summary, the Zips are slightly above D1 average in percentage of 3-point vs. 2-point shots taken, they are above average in both 2-point and 3-point shooting percentages, and they average slightly more (.063) points scored per 3-point attempt than 2-point attempt.On balance, it appears that the Zips are pretty well balanced.Zips Shooting Stats

[Captain Kangaroo]

Doesn't look like we'll need to defend the 3-point line too aggressively this Saturday?

[Dr Z]

You know what Belichick says stats are for. I don't have a problem with the amount of three pointers they take. BUT, two times in the Miami gameour PG brings the ball down and waits for all four players to start running a play and hoists up a threewithout making one pass. Both times he missed. I like to see us work (pass/screen) to get open threes.Both times he was not taken out of the game, so I figured this was okay with coach.

[Dave in Green]

You know what Belichick says stats are for.

No, I don't. I'd be interested to hear what any winning coach has to say about the value of stats vs. the value of anecdotal stories.

I don't have a problem with the amount of three pointers they take. BUT, two times in the Miami gameour PG brings the ball down and waits for all four players to start running a play and hoists up a threewithout making one pass. Both times he missed. I like to see us work (pass/screen) to get open threes.Both times he was not taken out of the game, so I figured this was okay with coach.

Speaking of anecdotal stories , is this the same point guard who two years ago destroyed Miami at the JAR by hitting all 6 of his 3-point attempts?Yes, I'm pretty sure KD has told McNees to go ahead and take a reasonable number of 3-point attempts per game if he's feeling confident and the defender is far enough off not to even get a hand in his face. There have been many games this season where the Zips acted as if they were setting up a play, the defender sagged off McNees and McNees shot uncontested 3-point attempts. It pays not to be too predictable, so it's a good surprise strategy to try this a couple of times a game before the defense adjusts.Once the defense catches on, and especially if the shot's not falling, it's time to distribute the ball to someone who's a little hotter that night. In this year's Miami game, McNees was 1 of 4 on 3-pointers, but had 6 assists and only 1 turnover.

[Dr Z]

You know what Belichick says stats are for.

No, I don't. I'd be interested to hear what any winning coach has to say about the value of stats vs. the value of anecdotal stories.

[Dave in Green]

I agree with the term "stats are for losers" in the context of citing stats to try to find a bright spot in a loss. But the reality of sports is that teams that consistently have the best statistics also tend to have the best records. It's not a direct 1:1 correlation, but it is a strong correlation.In the context of comparing meaningful statistics to anecdotal stories from fans who have wide emotional mood swings depending on how their team is doing at the moment, stats are generally the winner.While he may not talk much about statistics, I suspect that Belichick would fire any of his coaching staff who did not closely analyze team statistics after every loss and every win.

[Dave in Green]

Hey, Dr Z, I finally had a chance to do a thorough analysis of Bill Belichick's true philosophy on statistical analysis. Turns out it differs significantly from your signature line.

Fact is, Belichick is one of the leading proponents of statistical analysis in the NFL. The story goes all the way back to his 1970 chance meeting with Phillips Academy classmate Ernie Adams. Adams was a brilliant numbers nerd who happened to love football. Belichick and Adams formed a lasting and productive 40-year friendship and working relationship. Adams has been the behind-the-scenes numbers nerd behind Belichick's NFL success, and Belichick has become a true believer in and practitioner of the power of statistical analysis.

Now, I don't for a minute think any of the following will have any effect on anyone who is so deeply wrapped up in the concept of old-fashioned, gut-level coaching decisions that their reflex to any mention of statistics is to sneer and mock the concept. But for the inquisitive and open-minded members of ZN.O, there is a lot of interesting reading to be found at the following links beyond the short quotes I've included below.

From the book Management Secrets of the New England Patriots by James Lavin (Volume 2, Building a High-Performance Organization, pages 260-261):

Wearing large glasses, surrounding himself with books, wearing out-of-fashion clothes, and burying himself in statistical analysis, Adams is certainly a nerd's nerd... which suits Belichick perfectly. Adams' grasp of football minutiae and statistics gives the Patriots a definite advantage, even if the the man and his process are shrouded in mystery. ..... Belichick and Adams were statistical pioneers, and empirical analysis is a continuing Patriots strength.

Google Books Link

From the Harvard Business Review on How Analytics Help Build this Champion:

The Patriots also make extensive use of analytics for on-the-field decisions. They employ statistics, for example, to decide whether to punt or "go for it" on fourth down, whether to try for one point or two after a touchdown, and whether to throw out the yellow flag and challenge a referee's ruling. Both its coaches and players (particularly quarterback Tom Brady) are renowned for their extensive study of game video and statistics, and head coach Bill Belichick has been known to peruse articles by academic economists on statistical probabilities of football outcomes--over breakfast cereal, the legend goes.

Off the field, the team uses detailed analytics to assess and improve the "total fan experience." At every home game, for example, twenty to twenty-five people have specific assignments to make quantitative measurements of the stadium food, parking, personnel, bathroom cleanliness, and other factors. The team prides itself not only on scoring the most points ever this season, but also on having the lowest wait time for women's restrooms in the NFL. External vendors of services are monitored for contract renewal and have incentives to improve their performance. This won't help them win the Super Bowl, but it helps fill Gillette Stadium every home game.

Belichick deserves a lot of credit for the analytical emphasis (God knows, he can't get by on charm), but so do the team's owners.

Harvard Business Review Link

From the New York Times Magazine on Sabermetrics for Football:

Belichick is known for his unorthodox strategies: being more willing than most to not punt on fourth down; running the ball far more than average in certain crucial situations; and eschewing two-point-conversion attempts in situations when orthodox doctrine recommends them.

Not coincidentally, experts in the world of football statistical analysis endorse all these strategies. For example, David Romer, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley, published a working paper arguing that conventional football wisdom led to far too much punting. Romer analyzed thousands of plays and calculated the chance of scoring from any position on the field. Based on that, he gauged the relative worth of the field position gained by punting against the lost opportunity to score. Romer found that football coaches punt far more than they ought to -- perhaps acting out of fear of the worst outcome (going for it on fourth down and failing), rather than rationally balancing risk and reward.

Romer's paper, ''It's Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say? A Dynamic Programming Analysis of Football Strategy,'' is far from light reading, so it came as a shock to Romer when he learned that Belichick, who was an economics major at Wesleyan University, had read it.

New York Times Magazine Link

From the New York Times on Incremental Analysis, With Two Yards to Go:

THE academic paper that David Romer began writing two years ago did not look like something that could determine the outcome of a Super Bowl. Sure, it was an analysis of whether professional football teams punt more often than is rational, but it seemed intended mainly for the amusement of sports fans who happen to be professors.

Professor Romer, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley, used the phrases "Bellman equation" and "dynamic-programming analysis" - in the paper's title, no less. His footnotes cited work published in Econometrica, Cognitive Science and other publications that are not exactly must-reads in N.F.L. locker rooms.

But when his conclusion - teams punt too much - began getting attention last summer, a reporter asked Bill Belichick, the coach of the New England Patriots, about the paper.

"I read it," he said, according to The Boston Herald. "I don't know much of the math involved, but I think I understand the conclusions and he has some valid points."

Upon hearing that, Professor Romer's jaw dropped, he said. His paper was available only on his Berkeley Internet site, emlab.berkeley.edu /users/dromer, and the site of a group called the National Bureau of Economic Research.

New York Times Link

[Dr Z]

Non of that bullsh*t (waste of time) helped him as much as taping the teams signals and using another radio frequency then previously issued by the NFL. Since he has not had an advantage in the NFL, he hasn't won sh*t. Kind of a waste of time with all that. Stats are for losers, Final scores are for winners. He got one thing right.

[Dave in Green]

Right, Dr Z. And Butler's amazing run in this year's NCAA basketball tournament must have been based on some kind of cheating, with absolutely no connection to the fact that Brad Stevens is one of the leading practitioners of statistical analysis in college basketball coaching today.

It's nice and sunny here in Ohio today. How's the weather in the State of Denial?

[Dr Z]

Butler's amazing run in this year's NCAA basketball tournament must have been based on some kind of cheating

[Dave in Green]

So which ones are statistical analysis-based, the apples or the oranges?

[lumberjack]

I posed the question in a previous post about what type of offense we ran. I never really got an in depth answer from any ZN member. The coaching staff was gracious enough to give me a complete answer. The staff also wanted me to express how thought out they are on the offensive end of the floor. Hard to argue after a 90 point performance.

Coach Dambrot runs a combination of different offenses. First he runs a fast break similar to NC which tries to get the ball inside. From there on ball reversal we screen down and the get into baseline runner, with our 4/5 men on blocks and a player running off their screens. If the backside post helps we flush hi for a hi/lo look. We can sprint into on ball screens and either pick and pop or pick and roll. We run a lot of quick hitters always looking to get the ball inside and then play out of the post. Depending on what the defense does will determine which cut we run. We have set plays to isolate individuals in the post, sets designed to shoot the 3 and sets designed to drive the ball. We can run a set that is motion offense, we can spread the floor and use the ball screen to create total defensive rotations. We run a lot of different things to utilize our personnel. Hope this gives you a quick overview of our offense.

Thanks for the overview for the offense. I have to respect that KD has multiple 20+ win seasons and his system works for him in pass but I must point out the team was non athletic in seasons pass. When you have a very athletic team with high IQ you don't need all these systems in place to be successful. In my opinion I believe in teaching a few offensive plays and add on as time goes on but not all at one time You teach the player to recognize situations and not be a drone depending on one offensive play or another. In terms of looking for the inside or low post as 1st option every game every time all opponents will figure this out and prepare to disallow it (mix it up). I believe you take what is given using offense set-ups as models and not templates for running the offense. Players who can play recognize what options to run like this team and forcing issues (overly structured offense) only further complicate the team offensively in other words "not letting the game come to them". DON'T FORCE THE OFFENSE!!! Looking at KS and CS. they play good defense but are allowed flexibility on offense tailored based on personnel. This team should be allowed to play above the rim on offense and with a 7 footer and other support bigs underneath, they will be there to offer insurance that can make a play for all put backs. But whom am I...Just someone who has been playing, analyzing and observing team sets for more than 40 years. Again thanks for the offensive physiological structure I really appreciate it.

[Dave in Green]

@lumberjack, thanks for reviving this thread. It's one of my all-time favorites on ZN.o.

I'm impressed by your basketball knowledge. One thing we've learned about KD over the years is that he does have some flexibility. For example, while he doesn't like to play zone defense, he has gone to it more later in the season when man defense wasn't producing good results earlier in the season. He's also been known to simplify the offense later in the season when more complex schemes weren't getting the job done earlier in the season.

You are absolutely right that the current players are not typical of previous KD players. I think he may be a little uncomfortable turning them completely loose until they demonstrate they have a firm grasp of at least some basic schemes.

This team does have more athleticism and raw talent than previous Zips teams. That's one of the reasons why so many of us longtime Zips fans were so optimistic about this season. But we're also going to be facing more athletic and talented teams this season. There will be times when a more disciplined offense and defense will pay dividends.

The main thing to remember for someone new to observing a KD team is that he really focuses on getting everything working right when it counts the most. Making it to the MAC tournament championship game 5 seasons in a row and winning 2 of the last 3 MAC tournaments is evidence of that. I think what we're all hoping for now is that this season's team will not only repeat that previous success, but become the first to win in the NCAA tournament.

I think that KD will throw all kinds of challenges at his players all season long, and when he's comfortable that he knows what produces their best performance as a team, that's the direction he'll go when it comes down to tournament time. You just have to have a little patience in watching a KD team develop over the course of the season. It's always a roller coaster ride.

[Doug Snyder]

@lumberjack, thanks for reviving this thread. It's one of my all-time favorites on ZN.o.

I'm impressed by your basketball knowledge. One thing we've learned about KD over the years is that he does have some flexibility. For example, while he doesn't like to play zone defense, he has gone to it more later in the season when man defense wasn't producing good results earlier in the season. He's also been known to simplify the offense later in the season when more complex schemes weren't getting the job done earlier in the season.

You are absolutely right that the current players are not typical of previous KD players. I think he may be a little uncomfortable turning them completely loose until they demonstrate they have a firm grasp of at least some basic schemes.

This team does have more athleticism and raw talent than previous Zips teams. That's one of the reasons why so many of us longtime Zips fans were so optimistic about this season. But we're also going to be facing more athletic and talented teams this season. There will be times when a more disciplined offense and defense will pay dividends.

The main thing to remember for someone new to observing a KD team is that he really focuses on getting everything working right when it counts the most. Making it to the MAC tournament championship game 5 seasons in a row and winning 2 of the last 3 MAC tournaments is evidence of that. I think what we're all hoping for now is that this season's team will not only repeat that previous success, but become the first to win in the NCAA tournament.

I think that KD will throw all kinds of challenges at his players all season long, and when he's comfortable that he knows what produces their best performance as a team, that's the direction he'll go when it comes down to tournament time. You just have to have a little patience in watching a KD team develop over the course of the season. It's always a roller coaster ride.

Caleb Porter had some of the same issues this year. With lots of new players you will get some growing pains as everyone learns to play within the system and the coach learns who plays well with each other. I expect some to be dissatisfied with their playing time too. KD now has 11 guys he needs to get minutes for...I don't envy KDs situation.

[lumberjack]

@lumberjack, thanks for reviving this thread. It's one of my all-time favorites on ZN.o.

I'm impressed by your basketball knowledge. One thing we've learned about KD over the years is that he does have some flexibility. For example, while he doesn't like to play zone defense, he has gone to it more later in the season when man defense wasn't producing good results earlier in the season. He's also been known to simplify the offense later in the season when more complex schemes weren't getting the job done earlier in the season.

You are absolutely right that the current players are not typical of previous KD players. I think he may be a little uncomfortable turning them completely loose until they demonstrate they have a firm grasp of at least some basic schemes.

This team does have more athleticism and raw talent than previous Zips teams. That's one of the reasons why so many of us longtime Zips fans were so optimistic about this season. But we're also going to be facing more athletic and talented teams this season. There will be times when a more disciplined offense and defense will pay dividends.

The main thing to remember for someone new to observing a KD team is that he really focuses on getting everything working right when it counts the most. Making it to the MAC tournament championship game 5 seasons in a row and winning 2 of the last 3 MAC tournaments is evidence of that. I think what we're all hoping for now is that this season's team will not only repeat that previous success, but become the first to win in the NCAA tournament.

I think that KD will throw all kinds of challenges at his players all season long, and when he's comfortable that he knows what produces their best performance as a team, that's the direction he'll go when it comes down to tournament time. You just have to have a little patience in watching a KD team develop over the course of the season. It's always a roller coaster ride.

Good points!!!