It would be interesting to look at the athletic budgets, attendance/revenue generated, overall enrollment, endowment, alumni base, facilities, record of program success and media market size of the bottom tier of the p4/5 schools and compare that to UA. I think those are the key variables that any conference would be looking at.
I think it would be a stretch for UA to be really attractive to a p4/5 in our current state. I don't think an objective review of our current status would yield a "ready for the next level" conclusion. The implosion of the football team under icoach, now being nicely repaired by Terry, and the lack of attendance for both football and basketball could be overcome if there was a demonstrated pool of financial support that could be readily tapped to fund upgrading, but instead UA is already one of the most egregious examples of making students shoulder athletic department costs. That indicates that the well of support either doesn't exist or can't be tapped.
I think some have posted the assumption that moving up would unlock more interest locally, and I don't doubt that if we were competing at another tier, say in the vein as Cincy, there would be more local interest. But it's a chicken and egg thing-- we can't get to the next tier without that support; we can't get that support unless we are in the next tier. One big reason we can't get the support is because we are splitting the market, at minimum with Kent, but also with CSU and YSU to some extent, and all are entirely in the shadow of OSU.
To me, the conclusion is that moving up is entirely dependent on a gamechanger of some sort-- either a super wealthy alum or group of alum, a group of local businesses, or some combo of that, get together and commit to the tens of millions it will take to push UA to the next level. That kind of demonstrated commitment (think Phil Knight, Nike, and Oregon or what happened in Cincy over the last 15 years) would seem to open the eyes of a next tier conference. Is there any prospect of that happening? The only obvious path is LeBron-related, but it feels like that would have already emerged if there was really a chance for that to happen.
In the absence of that, the only other gamechanger scenario is some sort of consolidation with the other universities, at least athletically. I know most disagree with this approach, but it is hard to dismiss the fact that combining UA and Kent budgets for football or for basketball and will yield a much better supported team. The football budget goes from $8M-ish each to $16M for 1 team-- a budget in the range of Nebraska, Texas A&M, Oregon State, and Stanford (http://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciajessop/2013/08/31/the-economics-of-college-football-a-look-at-the-top-25-teams-revenues-and-expenses/#4a6887e42023). Similar result for basketball.
We're all just noodling ideas here, so I thought I would add into the mix. I just think the only realistic conclusion to be made is that there needs to be some sort of gamechanger for Akron to be considered seriously by the next tier of conferences.