Dave in Green

Really nice Andy Katz shout-out: If I had to pick two teams to latch onto from BracketBusters weekend that could make the Sweet 16, I'll go with Wichita State and Akron. The Shockers have found their groove after finally getting healthy and may just win the Missouri Valley outright. Akron has won 18 in a row, has an intimidating defender in Zeke Marshall and is getting zero publicity. That makes this team even more of a surprise come March.

I'm saying that I am personally uncomfortable putting the Zips' fate in the hands of the selection committee no matter how many stats anyone puts forward.

@zippy5, you are making the assumption that all teams in the top 25s are created equal, as opposed to the assumption that the selection committee reserves the right to reject teams that inadvertently slip into the top 25 but have no history of deserving to belong there. Math alone is not applicable when it comes to the selection committee. You do know about the "eye test," right?

It's hard to imagine that STO would not broadcast the MAC regular season game of the year!

@Roo, I was shocked to read your evaluation of the video, because I've looked at both camera angles dozens of times and step-framed through it. Nonetheless I just went back and looked at it again to prove to myself that I was not hallucinating. I will categorically state that a thorough analysis of the video proves beyond a doubt that Zeke absolutely and positively did not "lift himself up on the rim." If he had, he would have impacted his forehead on the rim. His forehead was inches from the rim, and you can clearly see him flinch his head to the side and close his eyes in fear of impact. Instead of pulling himself up, you can clearly see in the step frame that he kept his arms stiff to stop his head's forward momentum, which, again, would have resulted in his forehead contacting the rim. With his head and upper body stabilized, his legs and lower body maintained their momentum to the point that his whole body extended almost parallel to the floor. As soon as his legs swung back near vertical, he immediately released. The entire hang and swing was created by momentum, not "lifting himself up on the rim," which would have required the angle of his bicep and forearm to change, which they never did during the 1-second duration of the swing. It's not as if he was standing stationary under the basket when he made this slam. This was a 7-footer running at full stride with a huge amount of forward momentum. You need to go back and take a much closer look at the video. You probably just watched it a couple of times at normal speed and imagined what the refs imagined. EDIT: Forgot to mention that a step frame viewing shows that Zeke's pelvis came within inches of striking the bottom of the backboard! Maybe that's why 7-footers rarely try slam dunks at full stride.

Finally had a chance to check, and @LZip is correct. Utah State was 25-2 in the 2003-2004 season before they lost their conference championship game. They were ranked in the low-20s of the top 25 in both the AP and Coaches polls, and had been for weeks. Despite finishing with a 25-3 record and being ranked in the top 25 in both polls, they were passed over by the selection committee. It caused quite a stir at the time as it was said to be the first time a top 25 team in both polls had ever been excluded. So I'm not sure that there was also a similar UNLV exclusion in the 90s. Bottom line for any team without a blue-blood pedigree is either win your conference's automatic bid or prepare to be subjected to the whims of the selection committee. It's a long shot.

@akronzips71, you may be on to something there. Don't have time to work on it this minute, but will try later this evening. Being ranked around #20 in both polls prior to MAC tournament championship Saturday and selection Sunday might put some added pressure on the selection committee.

Here's the update on where Zeke stands in various national offensive and defensive rankings after the last 3 weeks' games: #4: Down 2 from #2 to #4 in floor percentage @ 67.3. #5: Down 4 from #1 to #5 in field goal percentage @ 65.5. #5: Up 1 from #6 to #5 in blocks @ 92. #5: Still #5 in blocks per game @ 3.5. #7: Down 1 from #6 to #7 in free throw rate @ 85.0. #8: Down 4 from #4 to #8 in true shooting percentage @ 67.1. #10: Down 3 from #7 to #10 in block percentage @ 13.7. #12: Down 10 from #2 to #12 in effective field goal percentage @ 65.8. #17. Down 6 from #11 to #17 in player efficiency rating (PER) @ 29.53. #31: Down 18 from #13 to #31 in offensive rating @ 125.9. Comments: Zeke's offensive ratings have dropped somewhat from what may have been unrealistically high numbers for a player who, until his senior season, was largely thought of as a defensive specialist. The important thing is that he has already proven that he is capable of efficient offense when called upon. His defensive ratings remain high and steady. His numbers still compare favorably with other centers considered as potential NBA draftees.

Enjoy the moment. It isn't going to last forever. Nothing does.

If the Zips win out but lose the MAC tournament championship game, it would be extremely iffy whether they'd hold on to the bottom of the top 25 or not. There are a lot of good teams hanging around the fringes, and it would come down to how a lot of other teams fared. I don't think it's a predictable outcome.

@originalrowdy, that is a fantastic site for viewing all the bracketology results. That means there's no need to post an update with a link every single time any bracketology is updated. All we need to do is check into that one site every day to see what movement there's been. We can just focus on a few important updates at individual sites as we see them. I'm going to add this link to my original post to make it easier for everyone to find that site. Thanks!

I'm guessing he meant that even a Detroit win could have made the difference. Oklahoma State and Creighton would have been even better. By the way, stories about all three of those teams continually mention Akron as a "good win" for them. They are all really pleased to see Akron become a top 25 team, as it may help their at large bids/seedings.

There's nothing in the RPI formula that accounts for top 25 ranking.

Anyone who doesn't think the rest of the games aren't going to be getting tougher and tougher is just fooling themselves. Many times in history a team has finally pulled itself up to a top 25 ranking only to lose soon thereafter. What the Zips have already accomplished and what they're still in the process of accomplishing is darned difficult. There are 347 D-I teams fighting for 25 elite positions in the poll. At this level, it's no longer a game. It's cutthroat competition. It takes tremendous talent, toughness and tenacity to prevail. What's happened in the past is history. What may happen in the future is speculation. Past Zips teams have no bearing on what this team can accomplish. Either you believe that this team has more talent, toughness and tenacity than any previous Zips team or you don't. It's as simple as that.

With Zips fan enthusiasm level amping up and more and more posts being made about various bracketology seedings popping up in various threads, I thought it might be a good idea to capture them all in their own thread. It's still way speculative, but fun to follow. Jerry Palm has just upgraded the Zips from a #13 seed to a #12, facing #5 seed Marquette in San Jose. Andy Glockner has also moved the Zips up to a #12, facing #5 Georgetown in Kansas City. Joe Lunardi still has the Zips at a #13 playing #4 Kansas State in Kansas City, with a chance to meet tOSU in the second round. Feel free to add others and update these as they change. EDIT: I'm adding at the bottom of this post a link to a bracketology matrix that originalrowdy posted later in the thread. Having it in the first post will make it easier for everyone to find should they want to check it. The 2013 Bracket Matrix Link

I have never in my life been so happy to have been proven wrong in one of my predictions.

Big perception difference between the coaches and the sportswriters. I'm thinking the coaches have a better idea of who they'd rather not have to go up against in the NCAA tournament.

During televised games they typically use the highest poll ranking to make the game appear more important. EDIT: Gotta be quick around here to get in an original comment.

Yep, the Coaches Poll was just updated, and I am in a state of shock. Never imagined the Zips could gain so much support with just 1 win in the last week. Would everyone agree that being ranked in the top 25 is a sign of progress?

(Moved to Zeke and the NBA Draft thread.)

WFNY notes that Jordan Brenner, in an ESPN Insider piece, has Akron Listed Among 10 Likely Cinderellas: Owning the longest winning streak in the nation, it’s about time the University of Akron Zips earned some national recognition. Just before the Zips won their 18th straight game (tied for longest in men’s basketball this season) in Friday night’s unfortunate home BracketBuster matchup with North Dakota State, ESPN’s Jordan Brenner listed the team as the 10th most likely Cinderella candidate for March Madness. Brenner’s ranking utilized ESPN’s noted Giant Killer formula which hopes to emphasize key characteristics of mid-major schools that make them likely to upset some major-conference opponent in March. .....

NoozeBox says the following in their story, Who Will Be This Year's Tournament Darlings: Every March during the NCAA tournament, there is a mid-major school that captivates every basketball fan’s imagination. Last year it was the Ohio Bobcats making a run to the elite 8. In 2006, George Mason went all the way to the final four as an 11 seed. So now that we’re closing in on another March, here are five mid-major teams that could potentially bust your 2013 tournament brackets. ..... ..... Akron Zips – Last year. it was the Ohio Bobcats that came out of the MAC conference to make a run all the way to the elite 8. This year, it very well could be the Akron Zips representing the MAC conference in the NCAA tournament. The Zips own the nation’s longest winning streak at 18 games and counting. After beating Ohio on Feb. 2, ESPN commentator Dan Dakich said he would take the Zips and their Head Coach Keith Dambrot as his dark horse come tournament time. If they are good enough for a guy like Dakich, then they are good enough to make my list.

Trolling is allowed on ZN.o.

@Ada Zip, I really appreciate you understanding the potential negative in this thread. Risk assessment is usually produced as proprietary information for internal business use. In the context of fans talking about their sports team on a public forum, it provides ammunition to our competitors' fan bases. For example, if I'm a Kitty fan reading this, I'm rotflmao on the Kitty forums that Zips fans are so insecure about their team that they're ignoring their own 18-game winning streak and focusing on the inevitable failure that awaits. There's a long off-season to discuss what went right and wrong with this season in its entirety and in actuality as opposed to in part with speculation.

I think the writer meant to say Can't and not Akron. I've been holding off on the Zeke stats update because I think they've been falling a little over the last few games even though his overall game performance has remained at a high level. For example, that steal and breakaway slam was breathtaking, but stats will never do it justice. I'll go ahead and update them later today.