Dave in Green

(Moved to Zeke and the NBA Draft thread.)

Hey, didn't mean to sound so abrupt on that last post. Got called away from the computer and sent it before I should have. I meant to point out that, per the dictionary definition, you can have multiple rivals. They can be differentiated by adjectives. For example, Can't is the Zips' traditional rival, but not the only rival. I consider the biggest rival at any given time to be the most competitive one that stands between the Zips and something that only one can possess. In the case of MAC basketball, OU has been the Zips' biggest rival for the MAC championship over the past few seasons. Hope that clears things up.

Sorry, I didn't write the dictionary. Your free to have your own definition.

Am I the only one who thinks Kitty fans are going to have a field day with this poll?

Rival: one of two or more striving to reach or obtain something that only one can possess.

I don't see any positive options there, so I'll abstain from this poll.

@Zipmeister, you'd make a great MAC ref. You should apply.

They were talking about that over on the Bison boards. As it turns out, every team NDSU has played this season has double-teamed Marshall Bjorklund. That includes Minnesota, which has future NBA frontcourt player Trevor Mbakwe, and Indiana, which has future NBA frontcourt player Cody Zeller. Everyone in the state of North Dakota was shocked that Zeke could handle Bjorklund without double coverage when Mbakwe and Zeller couldn't. After all, there are still many who claim that Zeke isn't good enough to play in the NBA. The only game plan NDSU has used all season is to take advantage of Bjorklund being double-teamed to open up other players for easy shots. They had no plan B. As the Bison coach said after the game: “Marshall (Bjorklund) has played against a lot of good centers,” Phillips said. “He played against Cody Zeller of Indiana. There hasn’t been a team that could shut him down, and Zeke did that. I knew Zeke would give us problems, but I wasn’t expecting a 1 of 6 night.” Or, as a Bison fan had to say on their forum: That 7 footer. Absolute BEAST. What a great player.

The only thing that matters to me about this game is how it affects the Zips remote chance at an NCAA at large bid. That would have required a perfect storm of events, and two of those events were the Kitties beating Belmont on the road and the Zips beating the Kitties in Athens. A Zips win in Athens now loses value to the NCAA selection committee thanks to the Kitties stinking up the place at Belmont. This loss by the Kitties and some other results with bubble teams has convinced me to give up whatever small hope there may have been for an at large bid. It's W2@Q or nothing.

Why don't we look at the exact NCAA officiating guidelines for hanging on the rim: Section 3. Hanging/Grasping on the Ring: Players should not be permitted to hang on or grasp the basket ring in an excessive, emphatic manner during dunks when there is no possibility of a resulting injury occurring. The intent of the rule does not permit a player to hold the ring and lift his or her body or legs, or in general, hang on or grasp the ring for emphasis. This is especially true for a player who dunks the ball on a breakaway or when no defender is nearby. Injuries, sometimes serious, can occur as a result of grasping/hanging on the ring. Game delays also result when damaged equipment must be fixed or replaced. When there is no obvious injury circumstance to be avoided by grasping/hanging on the ring, doing so in an emphatic matter is a (men) CLASS B and (women) Player/Substitute technical foul. Anyone can look at the video and see that Zeke was being chased by a defender and did not have the option to slow down without being caught. At the point that the defender broke off, Zeke's focus was on the basket, and he jumped toward the bucket in full stride, which, for a 7-footer is quite a large stride. Had he not grabbed the rim, he would have faced the possibility of injury by hitting his head on the rim or backboard. Once he grabbed the rim and his body swung out, he could not let loose without the possibility of injury by falling flat on his back until the momentum of his body swinging out almost parallel to the court returned to vertical. The video clearly shows that Zeke let loose of the rim the split second his body swung back and he was able to look down and see that there was no one beneath him, with the entire rim hang lasting 1 second. Bottom line is that the officials have the ability to judge whether or not the hanging on the rim was related to showboating or preventing injury. Zeke was not showboating. Zeke was protecting his body. There was clearly a "possibility of a resulting injury occurring." The officials made an incorrect interpretation of a rule written by the NCAA to be a judgment call with player safety being the primary concern.

The Zips are better than a 14-28 free throw shooting team. They average about 2 of every 3, not 1 of every 2. Some games are better and some are worse. If you only look at the worst game you think they're awful. If you only look at the best game you think they're great. They had a bad free throw shooting night. It happens. They've had bad field goal shooting nights, bad rebounding nights, etc. They've also had good ones. It's all about averages and doing enough in enough areas to win. They've won 18 in a row. Every team has good and bad free throw shooters. The bad ones compensate by their performance in other areas. In a close game where you have a small lead and the other team is fouling, you typically want to have your best clutch free throw shooters in the game and try to keep the ball mostly in their hands.

I'm not sure how the pure RPI services come up with different numbers, as RPI is a very specific formula using specific data and should produce identical results. Of course the more sophisticated rankings such as KenPom, BPI, etc., add other factors that make them different. But every pure RPI ranking should come out the same as the next one. Speaking of KenPom, he now has the Zips ranked #43. Impressively, the Zips' defensive performance last night caused their defensive ranking to jump from #50 to #40 overnight, while the offense remains relatively stable at #61. Earlier in the season, the Zips had a better offensive ranking but their defense was down around #100. Climbing all the way up to #40 is a good sign that Coach Dambrot has really been putting the focus on D.

I remember in the past watching the Zips get crushed by other teams full of athletic players who couldn't hit half of their free throws, but dominated the Zips in other aspects of the game. The Zips current team free throw shooting percentage is about 66%, which is in the lower third of all D-I teams. If they shot the same percentage as a top 10 free throw shooting team, they'd average 2 more points per game based on the average of 20 free throw attempts per team per game. There are many phases of the offense the Zips could be working on to raise their scoring average by 2 points or on defense where they could lower their opponents' scoring average by 2 points. As much as I'd like to see the Zips hit more of their free throws, I'll take whatever combination of performance in all areas it takes to win games.

On the subject of scoring droughts, the Zips are far from unique. Every basketball team has scoring droughts, and every basketball team has times when it can't seem to miss. This is the nature of averages. If a team shoots 50% from the field, it doesn't mean it hits every other shot. There will be strings of hits and misses. It's like flipping a coin. There's a 50% chance each time that it will come up heads and a 50% chance it will come up tails. But sometimes you get long strings of just heads or just tails. It's the same with temperature. If the average daily high for a certain date is 70 degrees, sometimes it will be 90 and sometimes 50. It averages out. So just enjoy the good runs when they come and think during the bad runs that this too shall pass. If you want to see how many other basketball teams have this problem, try an internet search for basketball scoring droughts and read all the laments from all the fans of all the high school, college and pro teams who've suffered through them. At the end of a game, the only thing that really matters is that your team's ups and downs average out more positive than the other team's. This edition of the Zips is much better at that than previous editions.

Having now watched the replay, you guys are right that the defender who was right on Zeke's tail slowed down and broke to the left just before Zeke jumped. So it's true that he was never under Zeke. From my perspective at the JAR, I missed that as I was focused on the ball and not the defender. You're also correct that Zeke did not hang on the rim in a way that merits a technical. I don't think refs are used to seeing 7-footers do something like that. Zeke had such a head of steam to stay ahead of the defender that his body ended up almost parallel to the floor. As his body started swinging back he looked down, saw that there was no one under him and immediately released. Looking at the timer at the bottom of the video, Zeke grabbed the rim at the 7-second mark and released at the 8-second mark. That was exactly the time it took for his body to go from vertical to horizontal and back to vertical -- 1 stinking second. Bad call.

@akronzips71, yes, the biggest bump in RPI that the Zips can possibly get in the remainder of the regular season is if #73 OU beats #27 Belmont on the road, and then the Zips beat OU on the road to go along with the Zips home win over OU. That has the potential to get the Zips' RPI into the 30s. None of the other teams we play (Buffalo, Miami, Can't) will be worth more than a position or two in RPI.

Being realistic about this, there are a lot of points to be made up for the Zips to break into the top 25 in the Coaches Poll, which currently looks like this: 21. Colorado State 182 22. Pittsburgh 161 23. Oregon 92 24. Virginia Commonwealth 91 25. Notre Dame 50 26. Saint Louis 23 27. Akron 19 27. Saint Mary's 19 29. Cincinnati 16 29. Creighton 16 I think that Saint Louis moves into the top 25 after beating #15 Butler and #24 VCU this week. Creighton and St. Mary's play each other tomorrow, so one of them will get a quality win and almost certainly move ahead of the Zips. Playing only one game this week and beating NDSU at home is likely not quite enough for the Zips to move into the top 25. But they'll keep getting closer and closer as long as they keep winning.

Live RPI moves the Zips up to #46 following tonight's win over NDSU. This is likely to change after tomorrow's games are played, and the Zips could either move further up or drop a little depending on what other teams do.

@ZachTheZip, those teams were all so many points ahead of the Zips that I just don't think they will fall far enough for us to catch them. It will be close, though, and there's at least a small chance the Zips might slip in. If the Zips are still on their win streak at the end of next week, I think they would likely make the top 25 in the Coaches Poll.

The JAR was rocking tonight, and it was the kind of atmosphere we'd all love to see for every Zips basketball game. It was really loud, and the refs cooperated by making enough bad calls to set off a firestorm. The bad call on Zeke for hanging on the rim to protect himself from landing on a defender produced a crowd reaction that probably registered on seismic devices. With the crowd completely behind them, the Zips took off from there. Bad free throw shooting and, at times, bad ball control were offset by decent shooting from the field, good rebounding and, most of all, tough D. NDSU hit a fair percentage of their open shots. But they mostly had Zips players all over them, and their contested shots were mostly off the mark. The Zips compensated well for not having Walsh, who was with the team on the bench but noticeably limping. I can see how Bjorklund has such a high shooting percentage. He shoots mostly from in the paint, and uses his big body well to move people out of the way. Zeke did a great job of holding his ground and kept Bjorklund from getting many shots off. The ones he did get off were well contested, as Zeke didn't have to jump because the 6-8 Bjorklund only elevates a few inches off the floor. So all Zeke had to do was stand flat-footed and extend his arms up. The NDSU coach apparently noted Bjorklund's inability to score against Zeke, as he played only 17 minutes and hit only 1-6 from the field. Some of the other NDSU players looked pretty athletic but just couldn't score against the Zips' defense, which is getting better every game. Zeke was fantastic to watch tonight. He was as intense as I've ever seen him during play. But when play was stopped for free throws, he was relaxed, smiling and joking with his teammates. That steal, drive to the bucket and slam was a thing of beauty. He just added a new dimension to his NBA draft resume. We were really concerned when Harney left the game in great pain from what looked to be an injured arm. We were surprised when he came back in. But when he tried to shoot free throws, he couldn't get the ball to the rim. So they pulled him out of the game. Hopefully he'll be recovered for the OU game. Overall a nice win. But better performance in more areas will be required in Athens.

One problem: Remember Saint Louis being 4 points ahead of the Zips in the Coaches Poll? Tonight they beat #15 Butler for the second time this season, and earlier this week they beat VCU. Saint Louis is the most likely team to move into the top 25, and I don't think VCU will fall down enough for the Zips to pass them. The Zips still need more wins and a couple of teams ahead of them to really fall apart. But the Zips should definitely pick up more votes this week after everyone had a chance to watch their performance against NDSU tonight. OU awaits in Athens.

That's not all they will be looking at. All the articles written by journalists who've been through the media selection committee process mention that they look at many elements beyond this basic summary sheet.

@skip-zip, I've presented so much data on this issue that my fingertips have blisters. I'll just repeat one point. The Zips' best win this season was over #25 MTSU at our place. Iona's best win last season was over #49 Nevada at Iona. That lesser best win did not prevent Iona from receiving an at large bid last season. If anyone has any data that suggests that Iona had anything in their body of work last season that was better than what the Zips would have if they win out but lose the MAC tournament championship game, I don't recall anyone presenting it. But I do understand it's a long shot depending on what other teams do this season. Iona hit it just right last season with a virtually identical resume to what the Zips could have this season. But circumstances change every season.

I have to say that the weight issue does worry me a bit, because unless Rico has some kind of medical problem, the weight issue is likely related to lack of discipline. At his age and with the amount of energy he expends in basketball, he should not have a problem maintaining a proper playing weight. I like that he delivers just enough performance at just the right time to keep the Zips winning. But the difficulty factor goes up exponentially in March. If Rico is not at his best all the time, the Zips' season could end prematurely. I think it would send a powerful message to his teammates. coaches, and fans if he came out and admitted that he needs to do something about his weight. With a proper diet, he would not have a weight problem, he would be a better player, and the Zips would be an even better team than they are now. Rico, your talk about winning the national championship is all just bravado if you don't treat your own body like a national champion should.

@fargobison, let your friend in Columbus know that he can check in here if he has any questions about anything.