Dave in Green

I enjoy watching competitive games, so I didn't watch.

Lunardi updates bracketology heading into conference play, and now favors the Zips over OU as the MAC representative in the NCAA tournament with a #13 seed. Better yet, it's the dream matchup against #4 seed tOSU on a neutral court (Austin, TX) in a season when they are vulnerable without a lot of team depth. Please make this happen! Lunardi Bracketology Zips are also up to #13 in the Mid-Major Top 25. collegeinsider.com

@wadszip, the starting lineup for the past two games has been Zeke, Rico, Chauncey, Tree and Harney, who replaced Walsh in the starting lineup when Walsh was playing hurt. So Harney has already been starting at the three with Chauncey moving back to the two. If Walsh is feeling better, he should slide back into the starting lineup replacing Chauncey at the two. Harney could also play some minutes at the four if needed, as could Kretzer. Also remember that Kretzer averaged more than 30 minutes per game in the Zips' first four games, so he's capable of playing long minutes without wearing down. This is where the deep bench pays off.

@lumberjack, many thanks to you for sharing this news with all Zips fans. It was painful to me to watch Chauncey trying to tough it out on the floor with an obviously hurting knee, and despite playing his hardest not being able to perform at the highest level we know he's capable of when he's completely healthy. It was a smart decision to go for minor surgery before something went wrong and major surgery was required. Looking forward to seeing Chauncey back at 100% as soon as he fully heals.

Another story suggests that the Orange Bowl may join the Rose and Sugar Bowls in locking out the "Group of Five Conferences": The development suggests, for the first time, the order of a three-year playoff bowl rotation. The six-bowl playoff format beginning after the 2014 season will feature so-called "contract" bowls Orange, Sugar and Rose tied to conferences. The other three bowls will go to open or "access" bowls without conference affiliations. The Fiesta Bowl as well as venues in Dallas and Atlanta are considered favorites to get those three spots. Rose, Sugar likely to host first national semifinals in 2015

One thing is for certain in the new national championship playoff series that's slowly being pieced together with the existing major bowl games -- no MAC team will ever be eligible to play in the Sugar or Rose Bowls, even if they go undefeated and beat Alabama, Florida, LSU and Oregon in their OOC schedule: Also, the highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (Big East, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will earn a berth in one of the six major bowls but will never be eligible for the Sugar or Rose bowls. Rose and Sugar bowls will host college football's first national semifinals on Jan. 1, 2015

Rico was out two weeks after his knee surgery last season and came back against VCU of all teams. He handled the VCU pressure defense pretty well so soon after surgery. Assuming that Chauncey's injury is no worse than Rico's, he could recover just as quickly.

Makes me think back to a few seasons ago when we were talking about how fortunate the Zips were to go through whole seasons with minimal player time lost to injuries, suspension, etc. Seems like it's all catching up this season -- Q gone, Tree and Nick missing the first three games, Rico's ankle, Walsh's injury, and now Chauncey. The Zips are deep enough to handle the early MAC schedule, and the extra PT for some players will pay off later in the season. But the Zips will really need everyone healthy when they go up against OU in a little more than three weeks.

Hustle Belt has a long and detailed analysis of how the Zips and WMU stack up right now: Western Michigan - Akron Preview

Rick Bolus today released his latest HS player updates, and his January rankings show that all three of the Zips' Ohio recruits have moved up. In the preseason October edition, Isaiah Johnson, Kwan Cheatham and Aaron Jackson were all ranked among the second best 25 HS players in Ohio. In the January midseason edition, all three have moved into the top 25 based on their performances to date. Jackson is now ranked #14, Cheatham #16 and Johnson #19. Judging by previous years, the next Bolus rankings will come out in April after the HS basketball season ends, and the Zips commits could move up even higher. Bolus Rankings

The Rivals "poll" is really just the same, simple RPI that's listed on many different sites. As wadszip says, RPI is pretty simplistic compared with more sophisticated formulas such as those developed by Sagarin and Pomeroy. What really sets these apart is their reliance on adjusted offense and defense stats that measure a team's total performance and not just the wins and losses. For example, the Zips' current #47 ranking is largely based on their adjusted offense, which is currently ranked #28 of all DI teams. By comparison, Pomeroy currently ranks Syracuse #6 in the country despite a #25 adjusted offense that's just slightly better than the Zips have. The difference is that Syracuse has the #1 adjusted defense in the Pomeroy rankings while the Zips are only #97. Pomeroy found that his predictions became much more accurate after he added adjusted offense and defense to his formula a few years ago. It's really odd to see a Coach Dambrot team ranked so high on offense after so many years of seeing his teams so focused on defense. I find this offensive-minded Zips team much more entertaining to watch than previous Zips teams. But with an offense rated so much higher than the defense, the Zips are going to have to improve their D before the end of the season or the better teams will simply put up more points than even the highly rated Zips offense can muster. Of all of Pomeroy's top-ranked teams, #3 Duke is probably the best balanced with the #6 adjusted offense and the #7 adjusted defense. One of Pomeroy's more obscure indexes is the "luck" factor, which "measures the difference between a team's expected record (based on offensive and defensive efficiencies) and its actual record." Those who believe in the Akron/NEO sports curse will not be surprised to learn that the Zips currently rank #295 in the Pomeroy luck rankings!

Some of the more interesting threads on ZN.o have been in OT. Everyone who wants to read this thread and participate in it will find it. It's really no big deal.

OK, I get it now. The general home attendance trend of this season was downward throughout the year as the losses mounted. Generally with a winning team, after accounting for variables like weather, special events, etc., more fans tend to show up for games against bigger name opponents in any sport at any school. EDIT: Forgot to mention that the Bowling Green game was a small upward blip in the otherwise downward attendance trend because it celebrated homecoming.

Got your attention, didn't I? Just the usual nightly dose of red wine (old vine Zinfandel), which my doctor recommends for a healthy heart. And since Dr. Proenza signed off on Vision 2020, he understands that it's Joe Akron that he's trying to tempt to visit the campus to attend Zips games. He understands the monthly payments that are being made on the new football facilities, and the number of Joe Akrons who are paying to attend each game. If he could turn it all around with a snap of his fingers, he'd just snap his fingers. But then he might as well just be another disgruntled fan posting on an internet forum who imagines it's just as easy as snapping your fingers.

My mistake. I forgot to check OU's results today. They're now 9-5. The Bobkitties hit 65.3% from the field today, including 47.8% of their 3s. Marshall shot 35.1% from the field, including 15.8% of their 3s. Even with Marshall outrebounding OU 38-25, no team will ever make up that kind of shooting deficit, and no team will ever maintain that kind of shooting advantage for more than a game or two.

And that's what this is really about, isn't it? I see this recurring theme over and over -- people tying their manhood to the results of their school's football team. They can't face up to the taunts of their friends questioning the ability of their college football team. So they want their football team to drop down and play against elementary school girls so they can run up a great winning record and restore your manhood. Grow your own pair.

Morgan State drew a lot of fans because it was the first game in the new stadium, before the Zips went into a deep funk and lost 41 of their next 46 games. But Coach Dambrot appreciates that you disagree with all those who blame the poor turnouts at the JAR on the no-name teams the Zips are able to schedule, even though the Zips win the vast majority of those home games.

Interesting dynamics. OU without Groce is now 8-5, with some really disappointing losses despite having played at full strength all season with no players missing games. Illinois with Groce has been suspect, even after the Illini won their first 12 games. Some said that Illinois relied too much on the three, and when they started missing, they'd fall apart. The Illini lost to Missouri. Then they lost their Big Ten opener to Purdue, and the word was that Illinois was back to normal. Then they destroyed Ohio State today, 74-55, while hitting only 8-27 threes. Just like the Groce-led OU, the Illini forced lots of turnovers and outrebounded tOSU despite playing three guards most of the game. To date, OU misses Groce more than Groce misses OU.

Just finished reading UA's Vision 2020 to see if sports are included in the future vision. Following is the only brief section that mentions the role of athletics (my boldface added): Our shared and seamless physical space fosters greater interaction with the broader Akron community. The University will strengthen its magnetic draw as a cultural hub for the arts, thought leadership, exhibitions, and athletics. We welcome the community to the campus and enrich the intellectual, social and cultural experiences for students, faculty and staff. A stronger campus/community connection synergizes the development of all. Just as in our successful athletics program: We will not simply win championships; we will create champions. This philosophy is the basis for The Akron Experience that blends academic and experiential learning into each student’s capabilities, helping to make the transition from campus to community seamless, and creating a new generation of “civic champions.” It sounds to me as if a key purpose of the athletic programs is to attract the broader Akron community to visit the campus to watch sporting events. As we've discussed over and over in many different threads over the years, the general public is attracted by local teams that perform well against name opponents. Football obviously has the potential to draw bigger crowds than any other sport, so a successful football program is an important component of this section of Vision 2020. I think it's imperative to have a Zips football team that performs well against name opponents. I don't think that either winning against lower level opponents or having name opponents but not winning is going to get the job done. Prior to this season, the Zips football program hit rock bottom, resulting in pathetic attendance. This season UA made a bold move by bringing in quality, recognizable coaches to turn the program around, and it produced a slight uptick in performance if not final record. Next season will give us all a better idea of what's possible. Personally, I see nothing in Vision 2020 that suggests voluntarily moving down a level in any area, including football, would be helpful in implementing this plan.

A reasonable consensus can start developing when the discussion becomes more data-based and less personal. The more good data presented here, the more likely we are to be able to formulate educated opinions. But people are still going to push back if they think someone is trying to rush them into buying something without sufficient data.

A reasonable consensus appears to be developing. Another point to consider is UA's vision for the future, and how sports in general and football in particular fit into the total vision.

@ZachTheZip, in no way have I advocated for UA to voluntarily drop down from FBS to FCS.

@ZachTheZip, it's the distribution of resources that's the critical factor. How many high quality players are available to fill the rosters of those 124 (and growing) FBS teams? Are they equally distributed among all those teams or are they concentrated among a small number of teams at the top? The best coaches go to the programs with the most resources to get the biggest paychecks and the ability to recruit the best players, who in turn gravitate to the programs with the most resources and best coaches. At some point the resource gap becomes so great that there's virtually no chance for those at the bottom to compete with those at the top. That's why different level divisions are created in the first place. The question here is where the lines should be drawn in college football in order to avoid absurd mismatches in resources and competitiveness between the top and bottom of each division. In professional sports, they at least make some effort to balance things by allowing the weakest teams to get the top draft choices. In college, the best teams recruit the best players.

Here's the way I see the big picture: There are two major factors at work here -- resources and how effectively those resources are used. Generally speaking, the programs that have significantly more resources will outperform those with significantly less resources. Within groups of programs with comparable resources, it's how effectively the resources are used that makes the difference between winners and losers. Occasionally a team with significantly less resources that are optimized can beat a team with significantly more resources that are not optimized. That's the premise behind the underdog concept. Ideally you'd want to group athletic teams into divisions where most of the programs have comparable resources. Then the teams that best optimize their resources should rise to the top in their respective divisions. There seems to be a consensus here that MAC-level programs do not have the resources to compete with the top programs in FBS, and never will. The very best MAC-level team that makes the very best use of its resources might occasionally rise to the level of qualifying for a BCS bowl game, as NIU did this year. But at that level they are likely to face a team with much greater resources that is in the BCS bowl game because it has optimized its resources better than other top FBS programs with maximum resources. Under those circumstances, the team with less resources is almost always likely to be crushed. With more and more teams moving up from FCS to FBS, the imbalance is exacerbated. The FCS teams moving up typically have MAC-level resources, so FBS is being expanded from the bottom, creating more competition at the bottom for marginal FBS players. The top programs still get the best players and coaches to go along with their greater resources while the programs at the bottom are further diluted, and the gap between the haves and the have nots is increased. Again, as John Lombardi, who has experienced both ends of the spectrum as a former president of UMass at the bottom and Florida and LSU at the top, said in the NYT article: “The number of F.B.S.-level football teams is already too large to be sustainable,” he said. “And the teams at the top are a very strong, organized group. As more schools join at the bottom, it’s going to force the N.C.A.A. to restructure. They’ll have to start putting F.B.S. teams into categories. So there will be a second tier again, and that’s certainly not what a lot of these people joining now had in mind. What happens then?”

@SeeTeeZip, I owe you an apology for not having clearly stated an important point about my position on this hot debate. I thought I had made it clear in a previous post where I stood on this, but looking back I see now that while I was thinking it, I didn't actually state the following: I'm not interested in getting into an extended, painstaking, point-by-point internet forum debate on this subject. I just wanted to understand everyone's basic position and state my own position. That's why I was looking for a simple yes or no. I'm not trying to talk anyone out of their beliefs nor trying to push my opinion on anyone else. The only other point I would add is that you obviously misunderstood me to say I advocate doing "nothing." Staying on top of what's happening and being prepared to make the right move at just the right time requires a lot of attention, work and thoughtfulness. That's all I have to say. I'll continue to follow the thread to see if anyone has anything new to add that might cause me to reconsider my position.