Dave in Green

StatSheet.com has a whole section devoted to ref stats here. I haven't spent much time there because I'm not that interested in ref stats, and don't fully understand how to interpret them. But some quick and obvious stats can be found on any ref, including Glenn Mayborg who is here. Looking at Mayborg's schedule, the only other Zips game he's reffed this season was the OT game at Coastal Carolina. In that game, the 43 total fouls called were not too far off average for an OT game, and 1 less foul was called on the visiting Zips than the home team. Zeke played 39 minutes and was whistled only twice. It's possible that Mayborg was doing more officiating in the backcourt, which would have given him fewer opportunities to whistle Zeke. But that's pure speculation. There isn't enough data available to explain how Mayborg officiated that game within the context of the other two refs. Last season, Mayborg officiated in 4 Zips games. In 2 of those games, Zeke was called for only 1 foul each. In the other 2 games, Zeke had 4 and 5 fouls. Mayborg officiated 3 Zips games in Zeke's sophomore season, and Zeke had 4 personals in each of the 3 games. Mayborg reffed 5 Zips games in Zeke's freshman season, when he was more foul prone, and he totaled only 12 personals in those 5 games. Again, it's not clear if the games where Zeke was whistled for the most fouls happened when Mayborg was primarily covering the frontcourt action, where he'd be more likely to have opportunities to whistle Zeke. Comparing Mayborg's officiating record against about 250 other refs, so far this season he ranks #41 in most fouls called per game (37.4, which includes all calls by all 3 refs in each game). Courtney Holmes leads with 41.9 fouls per game, with our old friend Bo Boroski way down at #149 with 35.0 fouls per game. As far as I know, there are no stats kept on how many fouls are called by each official against each player.

We all know that Zeke came to UA as a shot-blocking defensive specialist with virtually no offensive game. In other threads, some have taken note that Zeke's offense is better this year, while a few claim he hasn't improved much and the coaching staff has let him down. But the stats don't lie. Zeke has been steadily climbing up the charts in several important offensive categories, and is now among the national leaders. In fact, Zeke is the nation's new #1 in one offensive category: #1: Zeke is now the nation's leader in free throw rate (number of free throw attempts per field goal attempt). For every field goal Zeke attempts, he's getting 1.178 free throw attempts for a free throw rate of 117.8. The second best player in the country is way behind at 106.06 and 3rd place is 101.02. No other player in the country earns more than 1 free throw attempt per field goal attempt. In other words, when Zeke takes the ball to the bucket, he gets fouled more than any other player. His free throw shooting percentage has improved to 73.3%, which is a little above average for all players and very good for a 7-foot center. #4: Zeke is now 4th best in floor percentage (an individual's scoring possessions divided by his total possessions). Zeke currently scores on 69.18% of his possessions. Only 3 players in the country score more often than Zeke when they try to score. The Zips now have the go-to scorer that so many fans have been wishing for. #9: Zeke is now 9th best in true shooting percentage (summary of 2-point, 3-point and free throw shooting percentages) at 70.2%. #13: Zeke is now 13th best in field goal percentage at 65.8%. #41: Zeke is now 41st best in offensive rating (a player's efficiency at producing points for the offense based on field goals, free throws, assists, offensive rebounds and turnovers). Along with the vast improvement in offense, Zeke continues to excel at the defensive end, ranking #4 in both blocks and blocks per game and #8 in blocking percentage. His weakest area continues to be rebounding. But even there he's improving. His current rate of 6.417 rpg ranks him only #289 in the country. But last season he was #441 and in his sophomore season only #661 in rpg. So he continues to improve in all aspects of the game. There is no longer any doubt that Zeke is developing into a great all-around player and team leader. With Pat Forsythe backing him up, the Zips are among the elite of D1 basketball at the center position. If the Zips come together as a team around Zeke, the potential is there for a great finish to this season. And with an offense that's finally catching up with his defense, the likelihood of a successful NBA career is growing ever greater.

@zipdiehard, you make a really good point on the Zips rebounding. It's consistently been one of their weaker areas this season. The Zips are #119 in the country in offensive rebounds per game, #189 in defensive rebounds per game and #155 in total rebounds per game. They need to improve on that. I also agree with you that the refs were generally good about not going whistle crazy. I saw a lot of incidental contact and expected a MAC whistle parade. But they generally let the teams play, which was mostly a plus. The exception was Zeke, who Glenn Mayborg apparently has some kind of special attraction to. If you could put a piece of paper between Zeke and an opposing player, Mayborg thought that was close enough to be a foul on Zeke. The Princeton players were doing more than leading with their off arms. They were very good at offensive hooking. In fact, they were so good at it without getting whistled that I'm pretty sure they've studied and worked on the following tip from How to Foul Without Getting Caught in Basketball: Hook and turn offensive move. It depends on where you are on the court, but if you are in the post or running through screens, this move tends to work without being caught by referees. The move is simple. With your back turned to the defender, you spin forward as you hook your arm around him while moving to the basket. That helps explain how Tiger players were able to consistently get a step on their man and drive to the basket so apparently easily. It was clearly visible from the stands, and we commented on it during the game.

Already being discussed starting here.

@Quickzips. I'll try to answer a few of your questions from my perspective. First, the wings appeared to be closely covered most of the night. When they shot 3s, they mostly missed. The inside game with the Zips bigs was working well, so they went with it. Makes sense. This is now a multi-dimensional team that adjusts to what the defense is giving. The wings will be effective in other games. Also note that Walsh played short minutes due to a minor but painful injury that has kept him from practicing with the team. That may have thrown the team balance off a bit. He should be back to full strength shortly. As for Harney's conditioning, the full-court pressure defense is stressing everyone. No more easy trots back up the court from the offensive end to the defensive end. They're playing hard all the time, and they were really working hard tonight to cover all the motion of the Princeton offense. That's why there's so much more subbing going on. Some of the players are handling it better than others. But by the end of the season they should all be more used to it. Deji has been playing more backup point since the Arkansas-Pine Bluff game, when Melo had 5 turnovers in just 6 minutes. Melo is still adjusting to the speed of the college game, whereas Deji learned his lessons last season. Melo looked better tonight in the 3 minutes he played because the Princeton players weren't as quick. But I think it's going to take some time before Melo is comfortable playing against teams with quicker guards.

From the NYT story on the intangible benefits: “There’s not much defense of the economics in the short term or the long term. There are arguments for countervailing, intangible benefits — more national exposure, more admission applications, better quality students and increased alumni donations. That has definitely happened in some places, but it’s not a proven outcome. Some studies say it does work that way, some studies say it does not. There’s the risk.”

That was one intense game. The crowd was bigger than I expected, and they made a lot of noise. Hummer looked as good as advertised early. But the Zips tightened up the D on him, and he ended up hitting only 5-13 from the field. It was a little frustrating at times to see the Tigers slicing into the paint and getting all those easy layups. Zeke had them a little intimidated until his favorite referee decided to take him out of the game with a series of pissy little foul calls. It's been quite awhile since I've seen a ref treat Zeke like they did in his freshman season. It was never more evident how important Pat Forsythe is to this team than it was tonight. Without Pat to fill in for Zeke, the Zips would have been in big trouble. You could see Pat getting a little winded from playing more minutes than he's used to. But he played good D with a couple of blocks, and hit 4-5 of his shots. Zeke was 7-7, so the center position produced 11-12 from the field. I believe that Zeke and Pat are benefitting greatly from going at each other in practice. Zeke appears to be picking up some of Pat's offensive moves, and Pat seems to be picking up some of Zeke's defensive intensity. Come tournament time, they're going to be an awesome pair of centers for any opponent to go up against. Needless to say, the inbound pass to Zeke with 1 second on the shot clock and the long-range hook was a thing of beauty, and the crowd response was deafening. Zeke's scoring average is up over 13 points per game and climbing. He's doing a great job of increasing his NBA draft value. As a team, the Zips were way off on 3s (2-13), but the inside game continues to be their strong point, as they hit 24-36 2s. I can't wait for the next game, even though it's against lowly Coppin State. Still some fine-tuning to do before taking on the MAC.

Who'd have thought that playing Princeton this season would be better for the Zips' SOS than playing Marshall? The Tiger to watch is Ian Hummer. He's a 6-7, 230 lb power forward who leads Princeton in scoring, rebounding and assists -- pretty unusual for a power forward. NBA DraftExpress rates Hummer as the #71 best senior player in the country, which means he's probably just outside of the NBA draft. By comparison, DraftExpress ranks Zeke #32 and D.J. Cooper #78 among all seniors. So while Hummer is not quite a Doug McDermott, he will present a challenge for the Zips. I'd expect that Tree, Nick and Jake will all spend time guarding Hummer tonight. With all the assists Hummer gets, the Zips (especially Zeke) will have to be careful about double-teaming him when he takes it inside, as he appears to be really good at finding the open man.

@GP1, you're welcome. I thought of what you've been saying as I read the story, and knew that you'd like it. I think you may have misinterpreted what Lombardi was trying to say. He doesn't really say that he believes that exposure is a good reason for jumping to FBS. After pointing out the reality that "even a crummy team in I-A football has higher visibility than a great team in I-AA," he says that "the universities think that maybe they’ll at least get something for it." I think he's just pointing out what the universities generally believe, not necessarily what he believes. I thought that all of Lombardi's comments were pretty smart.

@akzipper, how would you propose going about convincing high-level talent that it's in their best interest to pass on offers to go play for established, winning programs at big-name schools and come to UA instead?

A few short years ago, Josh would have been good enough to earn at least a minor sub role and stick with the Zips. But by 2010, when Egner (and Euton and Green) signed up to play for the Zips, Coach Dambrot was in the process of upgrading the level of player who could qualify for the team, and a potential logjam was developing at the forward/wing position: In 2010, Q transferred to UA and was able to play immediately due to UNO ending its D1 program. In 2010, Chauncey also transferred to UA and sat out the season in anticipation of playing the next year. In 2010, Treadwell and Harney were signing up to take classes and try to earn the grades required to play basketball. There was no guarantee that Tree and Nick would qualify. When they did, they moved to the front of the talent line for forwards along with the experienced and proven Q and Chauncey. The final blows came this year with the emergence of a far more capable Jake Kretzer than anyone expected of a true freshman, and the transfer of the talented Pat Forsythe, taking away any minutes Josh might have gotten at backup center. The good news about the Zips attracting an ever higher caliber of player has resulted in bad news for those who could not compete at that higher level. All of those who have left the program, or who might leave in the near future, are good kids who just couldn't quite make the cut on a Zips team that is more loaded with talent than at any other time in the team's D1 era.

The Sunday New York Times has a major front page sports section story today that is a must read for anyone interested in the topic of this thread. Entitled "Big Dream, Rude Awakening -- A Rush to Enter The Highest Tier Of College Football" by Bill Pennington, it uses UMass as an example of the problems faced by schools moving their football programs up from FCS to FBS. The jump head on page 10 is "Wide-Eyed Universities Chase Big-Time Football Glory in the F.B.S." It gets a little into the MAC, using Buffalo as an example of a team that made the jump and has been a perennial loser ever since, but does not mention UA at all. There are so many good points in the story that they couldn't all be copied here without violating copyright. But here are a few: After mentioning that former FCS national champion UMass was outscored 482-152 and drew disappointing crowds after making the big investment, it says: Such is the big time, where the newcomers take a beating and a vast majority of established football programs lose money just like their lesser-level brethren. But UMass and a flock of other institutions with far-reaching football dreams — from Texas State to Old Dominion — are undeterred. In an unforeseen convergence, nearly a dozen institutions of limited football renown are trying to force their way into the cutthroat, unrestrained arena dominated by college football monoliths like Alabama, Notre Dame and Oregon — universities that will be on display as the sport’s most prestigious bowl games are held over the next eight days. As many as 15 other institutions across the country are publicly or privately discussing such a move. The story quotes Daniel Fulks, an accounting professor at Transylvania University who has spent the last 15 years as a research consultant for the NCAA, as follows: “The reality is that football schools who move up a division almost always lose even more money. There’s not much defense of the economics in the short term or the long term. There are arguments for countervailing, intangible benefits — more national exposure, more admission applications, better quality students and increased alumni donations. That has definitely happened in some places, but it’s not a proven outcome. Some studies say it does work that way, some studies say it does not. There’s the risk.” After mentioning that UMass might consider dropping back to FCS if the FBS experiment fails, the story concludes with a series of quotes from John Lombardi, a past president of UMass who was also president at Florida and LSU: In Lombardi’s view, the recent rush of lesser football programs toward college football’s holy grail is more of an indication that F.C.S. football, the old Division I-AA, does not work. “Everyone in I-AA loses money and doesn’t get much for it,” Lombardi said. “But even a crummy team in I-A football has higher visibility than a great team in I-AA. So while there are more costs to move up, the universities think that maybe they’ll at least get something for it. “Of course, it’s an illusion that you can make money moving up. What they’re really trying to do is align themselves with the better-known institutions.” But Lombardi sees a brewing quandary. “The number of F.B.S.-level football teams is already too large to be sustainable,” he said. “And the teams at the top are a very strong, organized group. As more schools join at the bottom, it’s going to force the N.C.A.A. to restructure. They’ll have to start putting F.B.S. teams into categories. “So there will be a second tier again, and that’s certainly not what a lot of these people joining now had in mind. What happens then?” NYT Link

Good points are still being made, and people who wanted to end the discussion are still participating. So there must still be some merit to this conversation.

What about all the UA grads who screwed around in school, drank more than they studied and got mediocre grades? Don't they reflect poorly on UA as an institution of higher learning? Shouldn't they be discouraged from hanging out around UA? What are the odds that any of the most vocal critics on ZN.o were honors students who've gone on as adults to accomplish great things in the world, and whose records could be held up as shining examples for future generations?

No one will be able to complain that the Zips are picking on a small team in this game. Princeton's top 9 players in minutes played measure 6-11, 6-10, 6-9, 6-8, 6-8, 6-7, 6-5, 6-3 and 6-2. They also have a 7-1 player and another pair of 6-11 players on the roster who haven't played. After starting the season with a 57-54 win over Buffalo, the Tigers lost 6 of their next 8, with 1 of the 2 wins over Can't, 62-50. So they're currently 2-0 against the MAC. They're on a 2-game winning streak, with the last win being their best of the season -- 79-67 over #32 RPI Bucknell. But Bucknell's 1 loss prior to that was to Penn State in PSU's first game after their star player, Tim Frazier, had his season-ending injury playing against the Zips in PR. The Zips are a more talented team than Princeton, and will be playing at home. But there will be times when Princeton will have a taller lineup on the court. Zeke, Tree, Pat and Nick will be challenged. Obviously, Princeton plays the Princeton offense, which the Zips weren't able to overcome in last season's NIT game against Northwestern. Scouting reports say that the Tigers sometimes struggle against the press, so don't be surprised to see the Zips turn up the heat a little. If the Zips have another fast start in this game and don't back off, they should be able to send Princeton back to the Ivy League with another loss.

Nyles has spent a lot of time with the Zips lately. He played with and against Zips players in the Akron Canton Am Pro Summer League, where he edged Tree for high scorer in the championship game, 38-35. Box Score In the video below, Nyles puts moves on Rico, Tree and other Zips. Nyles was Hoover's all-time leading scorer, and the Canton Rep's player of the year in 2011, when he was recruited by UA but elected to go the JuCo route. Canton Rep Story At 5-11, he's small for a shooting guard. But he can handle the ball well, and could help out at the point. He appears to be a classic small combo guard. He looks like a D. J. Cooper-type player.

Oh darn, just when I thought history was about to be made on ZN.o with a discussion actually leading to someone changing their mind.

With Tree's strong and sure hands, the logical path for him if he ever considered football would be to follow in the footsteps of Antonio Gates in converting from power forward to tight end. If a football was thrown anywhere near Tree, I think he'd catch it with the same intensity with which he snags rebounds, and he wouldn't drop it or let any defender take it away from him. But with his skill set, Tree probably has a much better shot at pro basketball. NBA power forwards generally range from about 6-8 to 7-0 and 240-260 pounds, but the tallest and heaviest ones are not always the best. @wadszip brings up a good example with Utah's Paul Millsap. He's been measured at 6-6 without shoes, yet has been one of the better rebounding power forwards in the NBA, averaging 7 rpg (and 12 ppg) over his 7-year professional career. It should be noted that Millsap is the only player in history to lead NCAA D1 in rebounding 3 times, and he would have likely done it a 4th time had he not entered the NBA draft after his junior season. Whether or not Tree can go as far as Millsap did is a big question. But the two players are similar in size and in rebounding intensity, and Tree appears to be improving his game at a high rate.

I can understand why some believe it's embarrassing that the Zips have joined a long list of no-name, wannabe basketball powers that schedule games with the woeful SWAC teams. You can add Akron at the top of the partial list of shame below compiled from this season alone: Arizona State Baylor California Cincinnati Colorado Florida Iowa State Kansas State Louisiana State Michigan State Middle Tennessee Missouri Oregon San Diego State Stanford Syracuse Temple Texas A&M UCLA

@Z.I.P., in only his third season in the NBA, Larry Sanders is currently #1 in blocks per minute. In blocks per game, Sanders' 3.0 BPG is second only to Serge Ibaka's 3.07, with Sanders averaging 24 minutes per game to Ibaka's 32. Sanders is also averaging 7.9 points and 8.5 rebounds per game for the Bucks. If Zeke can replicate that, he will have a big NBA paycheck in his future. Interestingly enough, when you compare Sanders' stats from his final season at VCU with Zeke's current season, they are pretty similar in per-game averages with the exception that Sanders averaged significantly more rebounds per game and Zeke is averaging significantly more blocks per game. Zeke vs. Sanders on statsheet.com

TSU may have only brought 9 players to Akron, but they have 12 on their roster. Three players on the roster haven't been able to play this season, which has undoubtedly hurt the Tigers. In addition to the 6-9 center and 6-7 and 6-6 forwards who played, the Tigers have another 6-7 forward and a 6-5 guard on the roster. So the tallest 6 players on their roster are 6-9, 6-7, 6-7, 6-6, 6-5 and 6-4 along with 6 guards ranging from 5-9 to 6-1. In other words, their roster has something close to the average height of a pre-Zeke Zips team, but with better hops. Last season, TSU was the #2 seed in the SWAC tournament and lost by 5 points in the championship game. This season, the preseason all-SWAC team features forward Fred Sturdivant and guard Omar Strong on the first team, with Strong projected as SWAC player of the year. I'm sure at the time the Zips scheduled TSU, it was expected that they would be playing at full strength and not with 25% of their roster missing.

It was nearly 2 1/2 years ago when gczip22 stirred up Zips Nation with this thread about signing a mystery recruit, and made the following comment: I've been so impressed with Tree's total performance in all aspects of the game over the last few games that it reminded me of the Big East caliber comment. We all knew Tree was a great rebounder from day one. When he latches his meathooks on a rebound, it looks like he's going to squeeze the air out of the ball. His shooting, on the other hand, was a bit rougher in the beginning. But this season it has improved dramatically. He has a soft touch around the basket that's rarely seen in a player who rebounds so ferociously. Understanding that he missed the first 3 games of the season due to the silly clerical error, and that it took him a few games after that to get up to speed, I took a look at Tree's stats over the last 4 games. He's averaged 8.2 rebounds per game -- not a huge suprise, but still impressive. His shooting has been just plain extraordinary. He's averaged 14.2 points per game over the last 4 games, hitting 26-36 from the field for a remarkable 72% FG average. His turnaround jump shot, which was his main weapon in HS, has become deadly. Now, consider this. Tree played only 1 season of HS basketball, and has played only 1 full season plus a few games of college basketball. Is there any other college player in the country playing at this high level of performance with so little experience in organized basketball? And if he continues improving at the rate he has been, what will he be like in his senior season? Is there a chance that Tree could end up with an NBA career ahead of him? It's still too early to tell. But the early signs are promising, and getting better and better with each passing game.

TSU's biggest starter was 6-6 because, for whatever reason, they elected to start 4 small guards and a 6-6 forward. That didn't last long. One of the little guards played only 5 minutes the whole game. TSU quickly subbed in two bigs who didn't start but played longer minutes -- a 6-7 forward who played 28 minutes and a 6-9 center who played 20 minutes. Were they smaller than the Zips? Of course, we knew they would be before TSU came to town. Most teams the Zips play these days are smaller. Speaking of size, the biggest scorer of the night was the smallest man on the court, 5-9 Omar Strong with 33 points.

Good to see the Zips take Texas Southern seriously from the start and come out strong like the Cleveland State game and not like the Arkansas-Pine Bluff game. KD started getting indigestion in the second half as the Zips backed off and were content to play the Tigers even. That will work with a team of this level but not the better teams. Holding TSU to 2-20 from the field on their first 20 shots was offset by allowing them to go 22-42 from the field for the rest of the game. The Zips frontcourt players dominated their smaller opponents as expected. A good sign for the Zips was that their backcourt players protected the ball well against the quicker TSU guards, with Rico, Melo, Deji and Walsh combining for a total of only 4 turnovers. The Zips' level of play for the first 15 minutes of this game is what I want to see for 40 minutes against OU.

I see Gerry Faust at almost every Zips home basketball game. He has a bounce in his step that belies his age. I've never seen anyone at the JAR who's more positive and outgoing. He always has a big smile on his face, shaking hands, talking with adults and children, kissing babies. I understand he's on campus almost every day trying to do something positive to help advance UA. As far as I'm concerned, his Zips credentials are golden.