Dave in Green

Sad news about Creighton's Josh Jones, but not as bad as it could have been. Josh Jones (heart condition) 'retires'

@Spin, I appreciate your thoughtful and coherent response. There are obviously lots of questions about what's going to happen in college football. The changes that have happened over just the last couple of years have been pretty dramatic, and they're ongoing. All of the trends indicate that further dramatic change is not a fantasy, but simply more of what's already happened. You are dead right that none of us really knows what's going to happen. We're all just making our best guesses. And when you try to make an intelligent move when you don't really know what's going to happen, there's a good chance you might get it wrong. That's why I'm with GP1 and others who believe the best course of action right now is to try to stay on top of what's happening and be prepared to make the right move at just the right time. You are not alone in your skepticism about UA being able to make the right move at the right time, based on the lack of success in the Zips football program to date. But judgment errors are almost always compounded when made in a state of panic. Now is the time to look at the big picture in a really cold and unemotional manner and not let past failures create a loser mentality that virtually guarantees losing no matter what route is taken.

@GP1, that may be a good site you linked to. But as a matter of course I generally avoid .ru (Russian) websites. The Russians haven't accomplished much since the Cold War ended. But one area where they have developed quite a reputation is internet scamming, computer hacking and spreading walware on their websites. I would never consider visiting a Russian website for insight on U.S. sports issues. EDIT: Just wanted to point out that LocalLeaks is a knockoff of WikiLeaks created by the notorious global hacker group, Anonymous, for the express purpose of offering internet users a "safe, secure, and anonymous way for local government or corporate employees to reveal sensitive data." Everyone is free to make their own judgment about how "safe" the site is to use, and how credible the data posted on it is.

Zeke's performance has risen to the level of catching the attention of Ken Pomeroy, who writes in his Jan. 1 blog item on conference title predictions as his one and only comment about an individual player from any conference: Akron seven-footer Zeke Marshall has been pretty absurd so far in his senior season. 66% on twos and he’s fifth in the nation in drawing fouls where he’s made an outstanding (for a big) 73% of his tries. Not to mention fifth in block rate to go with career-best rebound numbers at both ends. Pomeroy has had his computers busy running 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season for each conference. In 10,000 simulations of the MAC conference season, here's what his computers have to say about the odds for each MAC team winning: Akron .... 5988 Ohio ...... 3148 Can't ....... 296 WMU ...... 217 Toledo .... 180 Buffalo .... 115 BGSU ....... 28 CMU ......... 17 BSU ............ 5 Miami ......... 4 EMU ........... 2 Pomeroy Blog

The goal is moving up. Last season the team goal was to make the NCAA tournament sweet 16.

@SeeTeeZip, a simple yes or no would have been just fine.

@Zips Win!, who would you play at backup point guard? Last season's option (Q) is gone from the team. True freshman Melo is taking time to get up to speed. No one else on the team has shown the ability to be a consistently effective backup PG. Nyles Evans doesn't arrive until next season. Deji still has a lot to learn. But he's the best option at the moment.

If every player in college basketball stopped shooting 3s when they started missing, no one in college basketball would be shooting 3s. In the three games prior to tonight's game, Brian Walsh hit only 1-6 of his 3-point attempts. Should he have stopped shooting 3s for tonight's game? No, he hit 4-6 tonight. Shooters have to shoot their way out of shooting slumps. The Zips were getting open looks from outside tonight and most of them just weren't knocking them down. It happens.

I can't take credit for hitting the winning margin because my highly sophisticated calculation didn't include the fact that Coppin State would be playing without its best player, leading scorer and rebounder, Michael Murray. Before tonight Murray had been averaging more than 34 minutes per game. I can find no explanation why he didn't play a minute tonight. But it's likely that the margin would have been smaller than 28 had Murray played. In any case, this was another ugly game in the sense that teams like Coppin State, Texas Southern and APBU are loaded with quick, athletic players who play swarming defense but are not very big or highly skilled. The Zips won all three of these games by an average of about 28 points, which is roughly the same margin that teams that are higher ranked than the Zips beat these three teams. There were some embarrassing moments as the Eagles stole the ball and forced many turnovers. But they also did the same to teams ranked higher than the Zips. They were so quick that if the Zips got a little lazy or careless with a pass, they lost the ball. While painful to watch, the good thing about these kind of games is that it helps prepare the Zips for their biggest MAC threat, OU. The Bobkitties play a similar style of swarming defense with lots of quick little guards making lots of steals and creating lots of turnovers. While OU has much more skilled players with higher percentage shooting, the Zips now all have at least some experience dealing with that style of play. This will be especially helpful for the Zips four freshmen, who have never faced OU. Worst team stat of the night: Tie between 9-33 3-pointers (Walsh was a great 4-6, Kretzer a decent 2-5 and everyone else was shooting with their eyes closed) and 14-25 free throws. Best team stat of the night: 60 rebounds (the Zips had a total of 61 rebounds in their last two games combined). Best individual stat of the night: Three double-doubles in one game by Harney (14 points + 11 rebounds), Zeke (13 + 12) and the amazing true freshman Kretzer (14 + 12).

At one time the Zips had room on the roster for a pure shooter. Now they have a lot of good shooters who are also strong in other aspects of the game. The bar has been raised.

Zeke was 6-7 from the field. Add the 7-7 against Princeton, and he's hit 13 of his last 14 shots. For the season, he's 54-80 from the field for a .675 FG percentage.

Pomeroy currently has the Zips at #51 with OU at #68.

Looks as if he may be in the process of following in the footsteps of Egner, Green and Euton.

Pomeroy ranks Coppin State about halfway between Texas Southern and UAPB. The Zips beat Texas Southern by 25 and UAPB by 30, so halfway between that would be a 27- or 28-point victory margin. But I agree that the Zips have to take this game seriously. It's the last tuneup before the MAC opener next Wednesday against WMU, and Pomeroy currently ranks the Broncos as the fifth best team in the MAC behind the Zips, OU, Can't and Buffalo. The Zips need to play Coppin State as hard as they plan to play WMU and other MAC teams.

@SeeTeeZip, there may be a direct answer to my specific question somewhere in your response, but I started getting a headache trying to find it. Statements like "Akron has never shown that it can compete in the MAC" caused me to shake my head hard enough to induce dizziness, as I was at Ford Field when the Zips won the MAC championship a few years ago. While some MAC schools may have a history of doing consistently better than others, the simple truth is that any MAC school can compete in the MAC as long as they do all the right things to put together a proper program. Anyway, I'm still looking for a clear and direct answer to the specific question: Would it be smart for UA to wait at least a couple of years to see what the big boys at the top of FBS do, as that is likely to move the Zips and the rest of the MAC out of the top division of college football regardless of what anyone wants?

Even the best MAC teams are always going to run into an overall size, speed and depth deficit when going up against one of the big football factory programs.

It's way too early to predict if Zeke might be able to maintain an 80%+ free throw shooting percentage as he has over the past four games. But if he can, his potential NBA value goes up another notch. Most 7-foot defensive specialists are terrible free throw shooters who are often deliberately hacked by defenders when they have the ball to send them to the free throw line, making them a big liability on the offensive end. It appears right now that hack-a-Zeke is a really poor strategy for opposing defenses.

@SeeTeeZip and @Spin, I think you're both good Zips fans who are frustrated from years of losing in football, and that you're honestly looking for a viable alternative. I understand that your proposal for UA to drop down from FBS to FCS is based on your thinking that the Zips could be more competitive at the second highest level of college football (FCS). But there is a growing body of thought that as more and more FCS teams move up to FBS that it's almost inevitable that FBS will be split into two subdivisions, one for the big boys and one for the wannabes. That was prominently mentioned in the NYT article among other places. There's no doubt that UA and the rest of the MAC teams would end up in the Wannabe Division and not the Big Boys Division. Thus the Wannabe Division would become the second highest level of college football, while FCS would be relegated to third level. My specific question to you is whether you believe that UA belongs in the second or third highest level of college football? Because if UA were to follow your advice and immediately drop down to level two, there's a good chance that level two will become level three before long. Considering that, do you think it might be wise to wait at least a couple of years and see whether the FBS split gains traction, and UA ends up being moved to level two along with all the other teams that have no realistic chance of ever playing for the national championship in the top level of college football?

I believe there was a thread on spring football that went dead after everyone said everything they wanted to say on the subject. I don't believe anyone changed their minds. But you could go back and read that thread and see if you think there's anything new to be brought out. EDIT: Found it.

Since Dec. 16, Zeke has shot 24-33 from the field (73%), including 7-7 against Princeton, and 21-26 (81%) from the free throw line. Most of his offensive numbers have been good from the start of the season, and slowly trending upward as he asserts himself more at the offensive end.

It's 2013. Anyone change their minds? Happy New Year!

I lived out in SoCal for 7 years back in the '70s, and I can verify that it tends to warp your sense of reality.

This goes back to the part of the NYT article stating that some studies say yes, some studies say no. The missing part of this study that may or may not be buried somewhere in the part you have to pay for is whether winning in FBS football is the most cost-effective way to achieve the above results. Some schools could spend a lot of money on a winning FBS football program and only get a percentage of the investment back, and some might claim the percentage they got back was worth it. One thing that is certain is that those who are selling are always trying to convince those who are buying that they have the deal of the century.

I define statistical analysis as copying numbers from various sources and adding at least one adjective or adverb.

You need to do a little remedial work on your statistical analysis. You left out the pertinent fact that lowly Coppin State is currently ranked #286 by Pomeroy, 51 positions behind #235 powerhouse Texas Southern, which gave the Zips a huge battle right here in this forum.